I was going to ignore one more forecast by a financial services company (what do they know about selling homes?), but this is from the squid, plus Derek mentioned it in the comment section.
None of these forecasts provide any evidence or reasons for their conclusions. They are just guessing, apparently, and merely searching for more eyeballs.
They are probably transfixed on the median sales price, one of the worst tools available.
San Diego County Detached and Attached Homes, Median Sales Price
April: $871,000
December: $757,250
Diff: -13%
There you go – the county’s median sales price has dropped 13% so far.
Do you see that much in the market?
I’ll give you a better example:
NSDCC Detached-Homes, Median Sales Price
March: $2,625,000
December: $1,895,000
Diff: -28%
Do you see houses between La Jolla and Carlsbad selling for 28% less than they did in March? Me neither. NSDCC sales dropped in half (207 vs 101), and the homes that are selling are smaller (average square footage is -13%) and more inferior which explains why the median sales price should be dropping. But nobody mentions the additional variables.
We are being dumbed down by the squid, and others.
It’s impressive to see so many high-enders go into escrow this quickly – these are the NSDCC homes listed over $4,000,000 than have gone pending since the first of the year:
Not mentioned above is the listing that hit the MLS on January 3rd, went pending on the fifth, and closed on the 17th – and went back on the market the next day for $620,000 more:
It’s doubtful that any 1031 changes will get passed this year, but they are going to keep knocking. If you are a longtimer who would like to sell your primary residence but don’t want to pay the hefty tax, I recommend doing the double move as the best solution (move temporarily for two years – rent your primary residence then exchange it):
Potential changes to the 1031 exchange
The President’s 2023 budget currently includes some proposed tax changes to the 1031 exchange benefit. The proposed changes, if passed, could limit 1031 exchanges to an annual maximum deferral of $500,000 per person. This means that if you sold a rental property for a $800,000 taxable gain, a 1031 exchange may only help you defer up to $500,000 of that gain and the remaining $300,000 could be taxable in the current year.
To be fair, there is no indication that this section in the proposed budget will pass and become law anytime soon. But even outside of the potential law change, there are times when a 1031 exchange is not the most ideal solution when it comes to tax deferral. With the hot real estate market, it can sometimes be difficult to identify and close on properties within the timeline and monetary restrictions of a 1031 exchange. In addition, investors may be interested in keeping some of the cash from the sale and not roll all of it into another property. Or if you are no longer interested in being a landlord and prefer to be a passive investor, then a traditional 1031 exchange may not be as appealing to you either.
So, this brings up the question:
Are there alternative ways to offset taxable gain outside of using a 1031 exchange?
If you have a healthy gain built up in your real estate, here are some other strategies that can potentially help you to minimize the tax bite.
I’m just happy to see someone – anyone – step up to the microphone and discuss relevant facts about the real estate market. To also have my boss be so enthusiastic about the company and its future is an added bonus. Plus, our stock is up 50% (from $2 to $3!):
The graph above is boring this time of year, so I added my predictions in the lighter colors. I’m figuring that the Fed will be relentless and the higher rates in the second half of the year will cause the pricing gap between sellers and buyers to be tougher to bridge.
It’s because there will be some decent sales in April and May that keep sellers optimistic that the perfect buyers are coming tomorrow….or next week….or well, heck, let’s just wait until 2024.
Here is the graph from last year:
For our contest participants, there are 120 new listings this month – and we’ve had 36 new listings every week for the last three weeks. It means our contest should wind up around 170-180 listings?
KCM is a fine group of people who supply realtors with content for them to publish in their newsletters, social media, etc. They provide an invaluable service for the agents who’d rather just pay for content than create it themselves. It tends to be a softer version of what I do here at bubbleinfo.com because most realtors aren’t interested in a deep dive – they are fine with the lightweight stuff.
But because I said last week that “price it right” is code for listing your home for the realtor’s price, I thought I should comment on the above.
UNDERPRICED – The fear of underpricing your home and leaving money on the table is real….if you list with an agent who just wants to take the first offer and go back to sleep. When you list your home with an agent like me and the market responds favorably, I will let EVERY buyer compete for your home and then pit them against one another to drive the price up.
OVERPRICED – Realtors want to be the hero and are just as likely to overprice a home as a seller. This is especially true when several agents are competing for the listing – it is irresistible for sellers to strongly consider, and end up hiring, the agent who quotes the highest price.
The worst part about overpricing is not reacting quick enough. Once a home is on the open market, both the sellers and the listing agent wants to believe that if they just wait a little longer, the magical perfect couple with 2.2 kids will come along. But today’s buyers are watching the market time of each listing very closely, and making up things in their head about what it means – and none of that is good for sellers.
MARKET VALUE – It would be a miracle if a seller or agent could guess the market value. The conditions are changing every day in every area – and NOBODY knows what a buyer will pay until a home is on the open market. Besides, there is a slush factor of 5% on every house, based on it’s unique location, upgrades and condition, ease of showing, and the competence of the listing agent.
The best thing any seller could do is to hire a listing agent who is an expert in handling what to do if the market conditions cause the home to be underpriced OR overpriced – because every agent can handle a listing that gets lucky and miraculously happens to be perfectly priced.
As a way to “raise additional revenue and to increase ridership on trains and buses”, the train people started looking for developers last April – their solutions:
Under agreements the board approved Thursday, West Village Partners will build 184 market-rate apartments or townhouses and 50 affordable units on 14.37 acres the transit district owns at the downtown Carlsbad Village Station on State Street.
Affordable housing will make up 27 percent of the Village residential units, well above the city’s minimum requirement of 15 percent. The Village project also will include 17,000 square feet of ground floor retail space, 435 parking spaces, a 110-room boutique hotel, a senior living facility, and 80,000 square feet of office space, according to preliminary plans.
“This location is primed for redevelopment with only a short walk to restaurants, retail and local beaches,” a district staffer said.
The Village station sees an average of 800 patrons daily, with about 600 of those riding the Coaster and 200 using Breeze buses. The Poinsettia station, on Avenida Encinas near Poinsettia Lane in southwest Carlsbad, averages 400 Coaster riders and about 40 bus riders daily.
Raintree Partners was selected for the 11.47-acre Poinsettia Station, which will have 146 market-rate dwellings and 31 affordable units, or 17 percent of the residences. Almost 5 acres of the site will remain undeveloped under a permanent conservation easement.
Both exclusive negotiating agreements are valid for 2.5 years. During that time, the developers will work with district, city and regional officials on final designs, permits, and other issues. Construction is expected to start in 2025 at the Village station and in 2027 at the Poinsettia station.
Just another 234 apartments, a 110-room hotel, senior facility, and ~100 offices in downtown Carlsbad. You think it’s crowded now? There won’t be any room left for the tourists!
For those who wouldn’t mind moving to Arizona if you could find a brand-new home for less than $300,000, you should check out this new-home tract in Casa Grande.
It’s called part of the Phoenix Metro area, but if you’re going to central Pho-town, you better pack a lunch. P.S. They need to come up with a better name than ‘printed’ homes – it sounds like you are making them out of paper, not concrete poured by a ‘full-stack automated robotic assembly’.
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
