How it looked in February
Let’s continue to watch how the quaint old beach town of Carlsbad is being redeveloped by big money and a laissez-faire city council – so far, it looks like a grab-bag (an assortment of miscellaneous items):
They say that everyone is fleeing the urban markets for the country, and this is a good example of how much further your money will go. It is fairly close to town too – you wouldn’t really need to change doctors, etc. and for those who need a top-notch granny flat, have I got a deal for you!
29780 Reza Ct., Vista, CA 92084
4 br/4.5 ba one-story house
2 br/1 ba guest house above the garage with kitchen and laundry
4,200sf
YB: 2010
3-car garage with workshop
1.46 acres (yet low maintenance)
Bonsall schools
LP = $1,195,000
https://www.compass.com/listing/29780-reza-court-vista-ca-92084/623947343538281105/
2 br/1 ba guest house with laundry above garage
For those of us who were pushing hard to find the bottom of the retail range in Del Mar’s 92014 zip code, this was the listing that toppled over everyone’s dominoes.
This house is six doors down from the one I sold earlier this year for $2,157,000, so the value-range pricing of $1,300,000 – $1,399,000 seemed extremely aggressive at the time. Heck, when they listed, I had a 1,518sf active listing over the crest of the hill with freeway noise priced at $1,495,000!
I expected the house to be a disaster, but it looked like the typical old funky Del Mar Heights professor home that were sprinkled throughout the area. When this was built in 1977, it was probably a fine example of a custom design of the era.
It did close for $1,475,000:
Here’s how I handle a hot one when I’m the listing agent.
My listing of 7206 Durango in Carlsbad was appropriately priced at $999,000, given what we were selling and the homeowners’ desire to move sooner, not later. What do I mean when I say ‘appropriately priced”?
Sure, it was 2,699sf but it wasn’t a standard tract house.
We had twelve showings in two days, and for those who had been used to seeing other similar-sized homes nearby in Aviara and La Costa Valley and expected the same….well, you could tell by the look on their face – even with a mask on! They were stunned, and had trouble comprehending what they just saw.
It was because the house was a funky combination of a 1970s-built 1,517sf house with a pseudo-granny flat added on.
The challenges:
I knew from the beginning that the buyer pool for this combo was going to be much smaller than it was for the last two comps that both closed for $1,115,000. They were both fully-remodeled one-story homes on culdesacs, and we were the opposite.
One of the showings on Day Two was a single guy who came with his mom and an older-guy agent. The agent had only been licensed for four years (his license number on his card was over 2000000), and because they had sincere interest, he asked me what would it take to buy the property.
This is where I differ greatly from virtually all other agents.
Most agents will make some vague reference to how hot the property has been based on the number of showings, and tell you to do your best. If you ask about their rules of engagement, it gets more vague because they usually don’t have a strategy, other than spreading out all the offers on the dining-room table and telling the seller to pick one.
I gave the buyer, his mom, and his agent a couple of ideas. I told them that I had received an offer of $1,000,000 on the first day, and two other parties told me they would be writing offers too.
Then I described his two choices:
Idea #1: Either you can write an initial offer around list price or higher, and I will conduct a highest-and-best round. You can probably expect that there will be at least one buyer who will pay 5% over list, so it you offer that much or a little more, you might win.
Idea #2: You can swamp the boat. Make an offer so outrageously high that no one else will touch it.
An hour later, I received his offer for $1,125,000, with no appraisal! On a $999,000 list price!
I shopped the price around with the other three contenders, but nobody wanted a piece of that.
It was a fair and transparent process where everyone had a chance to buy the property. It’s what is best for the sellers, plus none of the buyers thought they were robbed – they had a fair chance to buy it.
If there was going to be a day when buyers might have had a chance to sneak in an offer to purchase without competition, it was today. Yeah, right.
Meanwhile, after ‘upgrading’ the MLS for four days, here were the results:
The 2021 selling season should be the craziest market in the history of the world.
My theory: The covid-19 pandemic has jumbled the usual timing of the elective movers, and we are experiencing a not-natural compression of reasons to move.
We will have our Big Three (death, divorce, and job transfer) causing their usual sales. Making the difference will be the elective buyers and sellers who expedite their plans.
There are always a group of buyers and sellers who contemplate moving for 1-5 years before they get around to it. But the current environment (covid+ultra-low rates+unemployment+prices+politics) has captured their attention, and it will pull forward buyers AND sellers from 2022-2023.
Plus we will have some buyers AND sellers who ordinarily wouldn’t have even thought about moving until 2022-2023 who are realizing sooner that they should move in 2021.
Not all of them, but some of them.
It won’t take many.
We have been very fortunate to have a steady consistent flow of listings and sales over the last few years. The number of listings between January and August varied by less than 1% between 2017 and 2019.
The pandemic changed that though, and look at results. Listings dropped off significantly YoY (-11%) yet sales are only down 4%. Oh happy day, we’re surviving the covid – for now!
NSDCC January-August
| Year | ||
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| 2018 | ||
| 2019 | ||
| 2020 |
But we know that more than half of boomers delayed their plans of selling in 2020.
All we need is for the compression of moving motivations to cause 500-800 more listings in the 2021 selling season and it will be a whole new ball game – unlike anyone has seen recently!
Historically, buyers are known to freeze up quickly when they see more homes hitting the market. But all we need there is 300-400 more buyers to jump at the chance of securing their forever home at ultra-low rates, and ending their unsettling insanity of 2020.
With all the bidding wars, there are probably 300-400 unsatisfied buyers in the marketplace today.
Next year’s selling season could be the Frenzy of All-Time!
Are you of the age (40+) where you might move one more time? Here are my resources to assist you.
Reasons to move again:
Being closer to family, and especially to be near the grandkids, is high up the list of reasons for seniors to move. Not only will it be easier for you to get some help from them as you grow older, but they will appreciate the free babysitting and help around the house!
If that means you will be leaving San Diego County, then Donna is the best at finding a quality agent in your new neighborhood. We are part of two different agent networks, and she will screen agents from those and make a recommendation. Cut & paste her email: donna@klingerealty.com
Are you thinking about buying a single-level home around here?
I input the best one-story homes from the MLS into my public collection here – it might ask you to sign-in but I promise I won’t call you every day until you buy or die:
Link to Jim’s Favorite One-Story Homes For Sale~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If you want to buy and wouldn’t mind getting a reverse mortgage with no monthly payments, then Dean Jones is your guy. There are other private lenders that can do larger amounts but they cost more and the lenders want a piece of the equity – Dean only does government-backed FHA reverse mortgages:
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You may already be in a terrific neighborhood, but it may not be the best for you at this age. There are several active communities for those who are 55 and older – both for sale and for rent. Some examples:
https://www.oceanhillscountryclub.com/
https://www.portolaseniorapts.com/
I can help you with the ones that are for sale.
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If time got away from you, and now a senior facility is needed, then one of the most popular websites to search for alternatives around the country is A Place For Mom.
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We just had a fantastic experience with seniormovemasters.com in San Marcos. They moved the belongings and set them up in the new home for $1,000!
If you need senior-moving help in other areas of the country, then check the website of the National Association of Senior Move Managers:
Link to NASMM website~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If you need to donate stuff to a good cause, rather than move it to your next home, then Rancho Coastal Humane Society is a good option because they take most everything.
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Hauling the remainder, including mattresses, can be done by Junk King in Carlsbad.
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One more thing – if you are thinking about giving your house to your kids, read this:
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Here is a resource for checking the costs of assisted living in each area:
https://www.seniorcare.com/assisted-living/resources/assisted-living-costs/
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This is my first draft, and I’ll add more as time goes on. I’d love to hear your suggestions!
Our new listing in SW Carlsbad!
7206 Durango Circle, Carlsbad
4 br/3 ba, 2,699sf
10,769sf lot
No HOA
LP = $999,000 (we represent the sellers)
Nicely renovated one-story 3br home with attached guest house in very private setting located near everything – all for $999,000!
Hardwood floors, stainless kitchen, massive walk-in closets, two fireplaces, central A/C, and it’s tucked away in a culdesac-like spot off the beaten path. No HOA, & no power lines. On the map it looks close to El Camino Real, but it is remarkably quiet. Master br down, & master up (in guest house). Great for multi-gen, work-at-home, distance learning, etc.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7206-Durango-Cir-Carlsbad-CA-92011/16657345_zpid/
This sold for $10,600,000 in April, 2017, and sold again in December, 2017 for $10,850,000.
The 8,251sf home is now listed for $11,495,000 with Compass! Here’s a brief look from last time:
When we followed Jenae and her scammers during the last foreclosure crisis, they had convinced amateur investors in Bressi Ranch to borrow most or all of the sales price – Countrywide was willing to finance 100% to virtually anyone in 2007 – and then rent out the homes until they go up in value.
We thought it was far-fetched because the monthly payment was well above the market rents, but they were bumping the purchase prices to include up to $100,000 kickbacks from the sellers for a slush fund to cover the negative cash flow (but went into the scammers’ pockets instead). They paid $1,100,000 to $1,300,000 for houses like this one, but as prices started to weaken, they all bailed out.
If they would have just hung in there until now, the idea would have worked!
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
