fbpx

2021 = Market Compression

The 2021 selling season should be the craziest market in the history of the world.

My theory: The covid-19 pandemic has jumbled the usual timing of the elective movers, and we are experiencing a not-natural compression of reasons to move.

We will have our Big Three (death, divorce, and job transfer) causing their usual sales.  Making the difference will be the elective buyers and sellers who expedite their plans.

There are always a group of buyers and sellers who contemplate moving for 1-5 years before they get around to it.  But the current environment (covid+ultra-low rates+unemployment+prices+politics) has captured their attention, and it will pull forward buyers AND sellers from 2022-2023.

Plus we will have some buyers AND sellers who ordinarily wouldn’t have even thought about moving until 2022-2023 who are realizing sooner that they should move in 2021.

Not all of them, but some of them.

It won’t take many.

We have been very fortunate to have a steady consistent flow of listings and sales over the last few years. The number of listings between January and August varied by less than 1% between 2017 and 2019.

The pandemic changed that though, and look at results. Listings dropped off significantly YoY (-11%) yet sales are only down 4%. Oh happy day, we’re surviving the covid – for now!

NSDCC January-August

Year
Number of Detached-Home Listings
Number of Detached-Home Sales
2015
3,811
2,160
2016
3,930
2,085
2017
3,560
2,135
2018
3,586
1,969
2019
3,604
1,928
2020
3,206
1,851

But we know that more than half of boomers delayed their plans of selling in 2020.

All we need is for the compression of moving motivations to cause 500-800 more listings in the 2021 selling season and it will be a whole new ball game – unlike anyone has seen recently!

Historically, buyers are known to freeze up quickly when they see more homes hitting the market. But all we need there is 300-400 more buyers to jump at the chance of securing their forever home at ultra-low rates, and ending their unsettling insanity of 2020.

With all the bidding wars, there are probably 300-400 unsatisfied buyers in the marketplace today.

Next year’s selling season could be the Frenzy of All-Time!

The Last Move

Are you of the age (40+) where you might move one more time?  Here are my resources to assist you.

Reasons to move again:

  1. Be closer to family (primarily to be near the grandkids).
  2. Change from two-story to one-story home.
  3. Better neighborhood for you.

Being closer to family, and especially to be near the grandkids, is high up the list of reasons for seniors to move. Not only will it be easier for you to get some help from them as you grow older, but they will appreciate the free babysitting and help around the house!

If that means you will be leaving San Diego County, then Donna is the best at finding a quality agent in your new neighborhood.  We are part of two different agent networks, and she will screen agents from those and make a recommendation. Cut & paste her email: donna@klingerealty.com

Are you thinking about buying a single-level home around here?

I input the best one-story homes from the MLS into my public collection here – it might ask you to sign-in but I promise I won’t call you every day until you buy or die:

Link to Jim’s Favorite One-Story Homes For Sale

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If you want to buy and wouldn’t mind getting a reverse mortgage with no monthly payments, then Dean Jones is your guy. There are other private lenders that can do larger amounts but they cost more and the lenders want a piece of the equity – Dean only does government-backed FHA reverse mortgages:


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You may already be in a terrific neighborhood, but it may not be the best for you at this age.  There are several active communities for those who are 55 and older – both for sale and for rent. Some examples:

https://www.oceanhillscountryclub.com/

https://aubergecommunity.org/

https://www.portolaseniorapts.com/

I can help you with the ones that are for sale.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If time got away from you, and now a senior facility is needed, then one of the most popular websites to search for alternatives around the country is A Place For Mom.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

We just had a fantastic experience with seniormovemasters.com in San Marcos. They moved the belongings and set them up in the new home for $1,000!

If you need senior-moving help in other areas of the country, then check the website of the National Association of Senior Move Managers:

Link to NASMM website

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If you need to donate stuff to a good cause, rather than move it to your next home, then Rancho Coastal Humane Society is a good option because they take most everything.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hauling the remainder, including mattresses, can be done by Junk King in Carlsbad.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

One more thing – if you are thinking about giving your house to your kids, read this:

House Gift To Kids

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is my first draft, and I’ll add more as time goes on. I’d love to hear your suggestions!

One-Story Plus Guest House

Our new listing in SW Carlsbad!

7206 Durango Circle, Carlsbad

4 br/3 ba, 2,699sf

10,769sf lot

No HOA

LP = $999,000 (we represent the sellers)

Nicely renovated one-story 3br home with attached guest house in very private setting located near everything – all for $999,000!

Hardwood floors, stainless kitchen, massive walk-in closets, two fireplaces, central A/C, and it’s tucked away in a culdesac-like spot off the beaten path. No HOA, & no power lines. On the map it looks close to El Camino Real, but it is remarkably quiet. Master br down, & master up (in guest house). Great for multi-gen, work-at-home, distance learning, etc.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7206-Durango-Cir-Carlsbad-CA-92011/16657345_zpid/

Bressi Ranch Over List

When we followed Jenae and her scammers during the last foreclosure crisis, they had convinced amateur investors in Bressi Ranch to borrow most or all of the sales price – Countrywide was willing to finance 100% to virtually anyone in 2007 – and then rent out the homes until they go up in value.

We thought it was far-fetched because the monthly payment was well above the market rents, but they were bumping the purchase prices to include up to $100,000 kickbacks from the sellers for a slush fund to cover the negative cash flow (but went into the scammers’ pockets instead).  They paid $1,100,000 to $1,300,000 for houses like this one, but as prices started to weaken, they all bailed out.

If they would have just hung in there until now, the idea would have worked!

Carmel Valley Lexington Plan 3 View!!

I’m lucky to have such great clients who do the most effective and popular upgrades that turn their home into a premium showplace!  Ideally situated on one of the best view lots in CV, this fully-renovated masterpiece has everything – TWO bedroom-suites downstairs, wide-plank hardwoods, designer kitchen, low fees, no road noise and no power lines!

Enjoy one of the best views in the 92130 too!

5278 Brittany Forrest, San Diego, CA 92130

6 br/5.5 ba, 4,687sf

YB: 2000

HOA + MR fees = $156/month

LP = $2,250,000 (we represent the sellers)

Tomorrow is the grand opening of the last PHR tract, and the base models are going out at $1,939,000 to $2,649,000 and add more $$ for window coverings and landscape (plus HOA + MR = $500+). Wait for months until they are done, or buy in the Del Mar school district on a quiet, private culdesac with premium view and without the congestion!


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5728-Brittany-Forrest-Ln-San-Diego-CA-92130/48180332_zpid/

Downtown Encinitas

Our new listing!

Be part of the vibrant Downtown Encinitas scene!  An easy walk to Moonlight Beach and the heart of downtown, this newer townhouse is owner-occupied and meticulously maintained!  The real white-oak hardwood floors are refinished to perfection and just the beginning of a great beach vibe!  High ceilings, granite & stainless kitchen with built-in fridge, family room with fireplace, views, and balcony, plus every bedroom gets their own full bath! 2-car gar + 2 spaces. PRIVATE ROOF DECK WITH PANO OCEAN VIEWS!

145 3rd St., Encinitas

3 br/3.5 ba, 1,705sf

HOA fee = 0

LP = $1,699,000

# of views seven hours after MLS input

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/145-3rd-St-Encinitas-CA-92024/66109631_zpid/

Pin It on Pinterest