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Fewer Agents

With the number of sales taking a dive for the next few months – which could turn out to be a few years – we really don’t need as many realtors. Older agents who have been looking for a reason to retire sure have one now, especially if they believe all the gloom-and-doom:

In 2000, about 5 million homes changed hands — about the same number as 2022 is shaping up to be.

But in 2000, there were 766,000 realtors in America; in July of 2022, there were 1.6 million realtors!

Realistic Post-Frenzy Pricing

The 3,743sf active listing across the street has been listed for sale at $2,350,000 since June 10th – but still unsold. Next door to it was a 4,398sf sale that closed on June 21st for $2,385,000 (it was a rental and needed work). It was on the market for 28 days before they found their buyer.

We are at the end of summer and while my 4,000sf listing is spectacular, we didn’t want to risk joining the other 17 houses for sale between $2 million and $3 million in this zip code that have an average market time of 34 days – they are starting to stack up! This is my logical reasoning to predict a price that will work. I’d like to help you too – my phone is 858-997-3801.

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To demonstrate the quirkiness in the marketplace, there was also a guy who came by the open house said, “I’d buy this house if it weren’t for the power lines”:

They are at least a 1/4 mile away and beyond the houses in this photo. To me, they blend into the landscape, but if any power lines are a deal-killer or you’re just looking for any reason NOT to buy, then…..

La Costa Oaks Stunner – Pending!

Now that buyers are being more cautious, we’ve seen how important it is now for sellers to spruce up their home and list for an attractive price.  A third component is to not think that there are two in the bush that are going to offer hundreds of thousands over the list price – it’s already been priced in.

We received an offer on our new listing on Friday, and went ahead with open house to give any motivated buyers a chance to check it out.  If you’re motivated (i.e., willing to pay at least full price), you’ll come to the first open house.

Here’s what happened:

When your ship comes in, don’t be at the train station!

La Costa Oaks Stunner!

Check out our new listing in Davidson’s Starboard neighborhood of La Costa Oaks!

7535 Circulo Sequoia, Carlsbad

5 br/3.5 ba, 4,0000sf

YB: 2005

LP = $2,295,000

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/7535-circulo-sequoia-carlsbad-ca-92009/1100461029264524393

The original owner of this premier Plan 2 was the CFO of Davidson Communities, and added over $100,000 in custom upgrades you probably won’t find anywhere else. The smooth-finish mission-style wall texture throughout, a custom door and window in the third-car garage that face the courtyard, ‘rainforest’ marble counters in primary bath, plus one of the best easterly views in the tract!  The sleek white kitchen is adorned with Blue Pearl granite, stainless appliances, and walk-in pantry. En-suite bedroom downstairs too! Owned solar, central A/C, and 75-gallon water-heater. Between the backyard and courtyard, there is ample private outdoor space, plus you can hike or bike the miles of local preserve trails!

Encinitas schools too – wow! An extensive trail system in the 1,400-acre Rancho La Costa Preserve nearby enables hikers and mountain bikers to go for miles! Additionally, you will be a member of the Oaks Club which has activities like Movie Night, Poker Night, and the Annual BBQ!

The 33 panel Solar System produces 17,000MWh/year and powers two wall chargers for EVs. Four motorized sunshades were added (very effective), and recently replaced appliances include: Hot Water Heater, Microwave, Dishwasher, Kitchen and Laundry Faucets. Recessed lighting was added to ALL bedrooms, downstairs office, living room, kitchen/dining. Many of the wall switches were upgraded to vacancy sensors (or timers) and/or dimmers. Five-inch baseboards, window casings, and extensive crown molding. The upstairs ceiling fans were upgraded and built-in wall remotes added. All can lights have been switched to LEDs. Built-in surround sound in the Living Room, Family Room, Courtyard and Backyard, with built-in Air-Bus wall Amps that operate and control 3 zones. The 1/2 bath was recently remodeled, the garage floors were ungraded and storage cabinets added – holy cow!

Open house 12-3pm this weekend!






JtR in Scripps Ranch!

Check out our new listing of a turnkey newer one-story home in Scripps Ranch!

11684 Petenwell Rd., San Diego 92131

3 br/2 ba, 2,207sf

YB: 1996

HOA = only $42/month, and no Mello-Roos

LP = $1,695,000

We will be open 12-3pm this weekend!

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/11684-petenwell-road-san-diego-ca-92131/1095793959486824785

Are you looking for a newer one-story home that is turnkey ready? This stunning single-level awaits you! Hardwood floors, newer white kitchen with stainless, high ceilings everywhere, shutters throughout too, plus a sun-filled family room that opens out to the low-maintenance yard! Enjoy the quintessential indoor/outdoor lifestyle all on the same level and close to all! Other features include the primary suite with a lux white bathroom with makeup vanity and huge walk-in closet, a new hall bathroom, and super-large garage with extra area that has about the same space as a 3-car!



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Post-Frenzy Definitions

The doomers are hoping to drive the real estate market into hysterics, just for fun.  It’s easy for buyers and sellers to get caught up in it too, and think the sky is falling.

Let’s identify the terms, what doomers want you to believe, and the truth:

Inventory Surge

Doomers: Sellers are hitting the panic button.

Truth: If we are taking about a surge in active listings, it is because the list of aspirational sellers (those who will only move if they get their price) is growing longer. They aren’t the market makers; they are only helping those that are.

Price Reductions

Doomers – Home prices are falling.

Truth: Sellers mis-priced their home from the beginning, and now they are hoping that if they knock off a couple of bucks, it will make a difference.

Affordability/Revert to Mean

Doomers – Home prices must come down so regular people can afford to buy.

Truth – Around here, homes haven’t been affordable for the common man in years, yet home prices have accelerated.  The NSDCC market is only for the affluent now.

Higher Rates Will Crush the Market

Doomers – Home prices and rates go hand in hand. When rates go up, prices must come down.

Truth – The bumps in rates are only giving the affluent a reason to pause, in hopes of a price correction.

More Open Houses

Doomers – Realtors are panicking.

Truth – More realtor trainees are trying their luck.

Home Sales Dropping

Doomers – Market is being crushed.

Truth – More sellers are holding out for their price.

Sales Crushed

Doomers – Zero

Truth – If the NSDCC monthly sales stay in the 100-200 range, we will be fine. Those are January counts, and the usual market seasons have been topsy-turvy since March 2020 so it will give the demand more time to get pent-up.

Prices Crushed

Doomers – 50% off

Truth – Sellers determine what they can live with, and their ego plays a bigger role than you might imagine.  Nobody has to sell any more, so expect resistance to selling for lower than the last sale.  Only the extremely-motivated sellers will sell for a big discount today – it will take years for that to become commonplace.

I’ll add a few more later!

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