I had another 80+ people attend my open house on Sunday, and a total of more than 200 people for the weekend. Virtually everyone who came was older, and the overwhelming message was that the buyer pool for one-story homes is large and they are hungry for product.
We have received one full-price cash offer so far, and there should be 2-3 more coming in today.
This smaller tract was built by Davidson in 1996, and sold in the $300,000s originally. Only 12 of the 82 homes are the one-story floor plan – which is typical (some newer tracts don’t have ANY one-story plans). Of the 82 homes, 57 of them, or 70% were purchased for less than $1,000,000.
I sure get the feeling that there are boomers occupying most of the newer tract homes in North San Diego County’s coastal region, and they aren’t going anywhere – unless they can buy a single-story home.
The most interesting part is that my listing will be the third sale of this floor plan in 2022, in a neighborhood where there hasn’t been a sale of this model since June, 2018. It could be another few years before the next one sells, because those who have a single-story home tend to hang onto them.
The doomers want to blame higher rates for the slowdown in sales, but unless we get a flood of one-story homes for sale, the inventory will probably keep shrinking – and be mostly made up of the two-story homes where boomers have gotten lucky and snagged one of the few single-story homes coming to market, or where they gave up and left town. It makes it tough on those buyers who are coming here to retire!
There was at least 100 open-house attendees on Saturday, all of which were 60+ years old. The one-story homes are their own market, and likely to perform much better than the two-story segment which has at least 3x as many built, historically.
There is a mystery foot in the beginning of the interior tour in this video, and it would be a good time to acknowledge the difference made by my wife Donna.
We knew on Saturday that our client’s purchase offer was accepted, contingent upon this house selling. Between Monday and Thursday night, Donna got the home carpeted, painted, and staged by her favorite vendors – people who regularly drop everything to help her out. It is a testimony to how well she has nurtured her relationships with them over the years, and when she needs a favor, she can get one!
Immaculate Davidson-built one-story with pool/spa, Owned Solar, 3-car, putting green, and upgraded interior all on a great cul-de-sac near the lagoon walking trail, Aviara golf course, and Park Hyatt Resort! New carpet and paint, high ceilings, plantation shutters throughout, travertine master bath with walk-in closet, plus roomy loft/master retreat with huge walk-in closet too! Being on the west side of the street gives you two great benefits – afternoon sun for your pool area, and your house doesn’t get hit by golf balls like the model-match across the street that just sold for $2,110,000! Other model-match sold comp (1327 Savannah) closed in June for $2,050,000 – wow!
Open house 12-3pm this Saturday and Sunday, September 17th & 18th.
After my blog post yesterday publicizing the confidence Zillow has in our local markets, guess what arrived today. Yep, their first installment of their next round (it usually takes 2-3 weeks to receive the full set):
At the end of July, their prediction for Carmel Valley was for a 12.9% increase in values over the next year. Today, their forecast is for +1.7% appreciation over the next year for one of the strongest markets in the county. It means that many other areas are going to have a negative number.
I’ll find someone to buy my $2,295,000 listing in La Costa Oaks, and it could be the last LCO listing of the year. It will mean that LCO sellers will be expecting at least $2-something in the 2023 selling season, which won’t feel like prices dropped much while buyers were on vacation.
Our full-price buyers backed out of their purchase of my new listing in La Costa Oaks due to fear of fire. I was there in 1997 when the last fire blew through La Costa – you may remember me being interviewed by Susan Taylor on NBS that night – so I’m aware of the danger.
While my listing is in the fire zone, but let’s look at it realistically. For this house to catch fire, the new houses in front would have to burn first, and the fire would have to overwhelm the excellent fire-fighting techniques employed by the best fire crew around who are well-prepared for wildfires and would arrive on scene before this house get touched.
You could also get hit by an asteroid, but do you look up at the sky all day? No – go get fire insurance and enjoy life. The California Fair Plan is the last resort for fire insurance and they will always be there for you.
As a result, we’ll be doing open house tomorrow 12-3, come on by!
Here is the Natural Hazard Zone Disclosure map – there are hundreds of homes included in the very high fire hazard zone, yet the risk of burning down is extremely unlikely for the vast majority. Where homes burned in the 1996 fire is circled in red, and all of the homes within the yellow border have been built since:
The 3,743sf active listing across the street has been listed for sale at $2,350,000 since June 10th – but still unsold. Next door to it was a 4,398sf sale that closed on June 21st for $2,385,000 (it was a rental and needed work). It was on the market for 28 days before they found their buyer.
We are at the end of summer and while my 4,000sf listing is spectacular, we didn’t want to risk joining the other 17 houses for sale between $2 million and $3 million in this zip code that have an average market time of 34 days – they are starting to stack up! This is my logical reasoning to predict a price that will work. I’d like to help you too – my phone is 858-997-3801.
To demonstrate the quirkiness in the marketplace, there was also a guy who came by the open house said, “I’d buy this house if it weren’t for the power lines”:
They are at least a 1/4 mile away and beyond the houses in this photo. To me, they blend into the landscape, but if any power lines are a deal-killer or you’re just looking for any reason NOT to buy, then…..
Now that buyers are being more cautious, we’ve seen how important it is now for sellers to spruce up their home and list for an attractive price. A third component is to not think that there are two in the bush that are going to offer hundreds of thousands over the list price – it’s already been priced in.
We received an offer on our new listing on Friday, and went ahead with open house to give any motivated buyers a chance to check it out. If you’re motivated (i.e., willing to pay at least full price), you’ll come to the first open house.
Here’s what happened:
When your ship comes in, don’t be at the train station!
Thank you Natalie for correcting me on yesterday’s blog post – the second half of 2022 is well under way! Sales won’t drop to zero over the next five months because people need to buy and sell, and hopefully all will be more diligent about the process and who they hire.
Here’s the story/ad-copy about our listing on Park Dale in Encinitas:
There haven’t been many Village Park condos on the market this year, so when our clients thought about selling theirs, they talked to a few agents to get quotes. One was $675,000!
So when they heard Jim say ‘mid-$800,000s’, it piqued their interest – why so much higher? Because we knew that a minor tune-up (cost of $15,000) would elevate the property into the preferred category of Move-In Ready and maximize the number of buyers.
We listed for $849,000, and sold it for $841,000 with a 21-day escrow!
The seller did not know us previously – here’s what he said about the experience:
You performed pure magic in selling our Encinitas condo near list price as we are potentially on the verge of severe economic times. Throughout the selling experience, we have appreciated your professionalism, considerable knowledge and experience in selling real property. It was a smooth and largely stress-free experience. We will certainly refer any friends to you who are considering selling their property.
Are you thinking of moving? We’d love to help you too!