What’s Hot

I have to hand it to Brett and team in their preparation of this 1975-built home in Solana Beach.  The flooring was removed downstairs, and they added a heavy epoxy paint to the exposed-concrete, which gave it a trendy-hip look to go with the colorful formica in the kitchen:

The list price is $1,850,000, and they already have four offers!

Link to Listing

Housing and Pot

From the MND:

It seems as though legalized marijuana is said to be good for almost everything. Now a new study from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has added real estate to the list. The impact is clearer when it comes to commercial properties, but agents saw differences in the residential sector as well where medical and/or recreational use of the substance has been legalized.

The NAR study, Marijuana and Real Estate: A Budding Issue (yes, NAR went there) grew out of a survey conducted with over 150,000 of its members, equally divided between those who operate in the commercial area (including building owners and managers) and those who practice residential real estate.

The study looked at states where marijuana has been legalized for medical purposes, for recreation, and for both, examining how it is grown, harvested, stored, sold, and consumed within those states. NAR found more impacts from legalization over time so divided some of the findings according to whether it occurred after or prior to 2016 which accounts for the dual percentages reported.

“As more states legalize marijuana, the real estate market will progressively have to adjust,” said Dr. Jessica Lautz, vice president of demographics and behavioral insights for NAR. “From property owners, to manufacturers, to those who simply want to engage for leisure – it all touches real estate in some form.”

In states were marijuana is legal in some form, between 9 percent and 23 percent of members who responded to the survey said they believe the inventory of available homes is tight for multiple reasons, including all-cash purchases from within the marijuana industry. While most respondents hadn’t seen any changes in property values near dispensaries, between 7 percent and 12 percent said they had seen an increase in values while 8 percent to 27 percent said they had seen values decline.

“Residential practitioners are getting used to the new normal of having marijuana legally used within rental properties, while homeowner associations are tasked with setting new rules to address consumption and growth,” said Lautz.

The majority of respondents reported that homeowner associations have rules that place certain restrictions on smoking and growing marijuana in homes or common areas. Only around 3% answered that specific homeowner associations do allow growing or smoking in home or common areas.

Three-quarters of members had never tried selling a grow house but among residential practitioners who had, 29 percent said they had a difficult time doing so. Twenty-seven percent of those in more recently legalized states reported difficulty compared to 25 percent in states that legalized before 2016.

Because Federal banking laws prohibit use of checks or credit cards to purchase marijuana, it is usually an all-cash business. About one-fifth to a quarter of landlords said they were unwilling to accept cash for rent in any instance, while about 10 percent said they would only refuse cash from an illegal federal activity. Forty-two percent of those in states where only medical marijuana is legal would accept cash rent, as would two-fifth of those where both medical and recreation use is allowed.

Among commercial practitioners, NAR found an increased demand for land, warehouses and store fronts that are intended for marijuana. In states where both uses are legal, more than a third of those polled said they saw an uptick in requests for warehouses or properties used for storage. In those same states, up to one-quarter of members said the demand for storefronts grew, while one-fifth said there was a greater demand for land.

“When the business of marijuana is discussed, some have a tendency to focus on only the buyers and sellers of the product,” said Lautz. “However, these numbers show that marijuana has been a boon to commercial real estate.”

Marijuana as a business has prospered for more than a decade and that growth continues to evolve. In the states where medical and recreational marijuana have been legalized for three years or more, each saw increases in the demands for commercial properties. As in residential uses, the effect on commercial property values near dispensaries was mixed, but about 20 percent reported an increase. There were fewer reports of declines.

Many respondents said leases had been modified to accommodate the marijuana industry, especially where legalization occurred prior to 2016. About half of respondents in medical marijuana states reported no issues leasing a property previously used to grow marijuana as did 35 to 49 percent of those where both uses were legalized. The most common problem among these properties were lingering odors, followed by moisture issues. Both matters were more common in areas where recreational marijuana has been legal for a longer period of time.

It reminds me of this REO we saw on the way to Valley Center. It sold for $950,000 with 5% down in 2005, was foreclosed and sold for $276,500 in 2009 (when this video was taken), and just resold for $775,000 in September.  What a country!  This video has 27,500+ views too!

Birthday

Last year I thought I was taking my birthday off, but by the end of the day I had sold three homes!

I don’t expect the same action today, but instead we do have a handful of new listings in the works to kick off the selling season. I think the market is going to erupt over the next few weeks as we reach the perfect intersection of ultra-low rates and more boomers making their last move!

Early Surge

Last Wednesday I was discussing the current market conditions with Candis while at her listing of a Davidson home on Calle Pera – which we both thought was priced right and should be selling in spite of it being on the market for 50 days.

I mentioned to her that it seemed like home buying comes in waves, or surges now.  The market goes quiet for a few weeks, then a bunch of homes will sell at the same time. We agreed that her listing should be the next to go pending….and if/when it does, will several more will go pending too?

Looks like it!

Since Wednesday, we’ve had 63 new pendings, including hers on Calle Pera!  You could say that we’re just coming off the holidays, but this isn’t the spring selling season…yet. Or is it?

It’s not just the hot new listings either – only 15 of the 63 new pendings had been on the market for seven days or less.  Here are eleven that had been on the market for 100+ days:

When eleven homes go pending that have been on the market for months, it’s not a fluke – those are retail sales happening early!  With good weather and no football this weekend, the lucky streak should continue.

Are you waiting to put your home on the market?  The reason to list it sooner instead of later is to avoid competition.  There probably aren’t many if any other listings around you now, and that could change in a hurry – and have impact on your eventual sales price.

I’m nervous about the competition between two-million-dollar condos in downtown San Diego, so I put our new listing on compass.com as a Coming Soon to gain some awareness among buyers while we do a quick spruce up.  It appeared on our website yesterday morning, and since then Compass agents have inputted another 19 new Coming-Soon listings!

Hopefully the early momentum will feed on itself. Let’s go!!

‘January is the new April’

The severe shortage of homes for sale is upending the sales calendar for the whole housing market. Spring has historically been the busiest buying season, but as competition for homes heats up across the country, January is the new April. Spring starts now.

The numbers are telling. From 2015 through 2018, the peak month for average views per listing on Realtor.com was April. January lagged by a full 16%. In 2019, however, January was the busiest month on the site in 20 of the largest 100 metropolitan markets.

Those markets included New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Seattle, San Francisco, Atlanta, Denver and San Jose, California. In 2018, January was the busiest month in just three of the largest 100 markets. This year, the expectation is that January will be the strongest month in even more markets.

“As shoppers modify their strategies for navigating a housing market that has become more competitive due to rising prices and low inventory, the search for a home is beginning earlier and earlier,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at realtor.com. “With housing inventory across the U.S. expected to reach record lows in 2020, we expect to see this trend continue into the new year.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/competition-for-housing-is-so-high-the-spring-market-is-starting-now.html

Buyers Starting Earlier

The home-buying season used to kick off sometime in spring, as the snow began to melt and people tried to plan for a summer move-in. But in recent years, the limited supply of homes for sale has spurred buyers to start their hunt earlier and earlier—and now, they’re jumping into the market en masse in January, according to a recent realtor.com analysis. Happy New Year, now start house hunting!

In about 20% of the nation’s largest housing markets, January was the month in which buyers logged the most listing views, the realtor.com team found. The analysis looked at the number of monthly views on realtor.com from 2015 to 2019—and discovered the extent of spring market creep, as buyers try to get ahead of the competition for the few homes on the market.

“As shoppers … [navigate] a housing market that has become more competitive due to rising prices and low inventory, the search for a home is beginning earlier and earlier,” says realtor.com’s Senior Economist George Ratiu. And as more homes aren’t expected to go onto the market anytime soon, ”we expect to see this trend continue into the new year.”

Link to Article

Hottest Markets in 2020

Forget Seattle, Denver and San Francisco. Boise, Idaho, is poised to be the hottest housing market at the start of the next decade.

A new report from Realtor.com identified the housing markets that are expected to see the most notable home sales and price growth in 2020. Boise ranked No. 1, a marked increase from No. 8 a year ago.

Driving Boise’s climb up the Realtor.com ranking is the massive influx of new residents from pricier parts of the country — in particular, California. Many of these out-of-state buyers are drawn by the city’s mild climate, outdoor lifestyle, strong schools and its major employers, including HP and Micron Technologies.

Boise’s already seen a boom in terms of housing. A recent report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed that home prices in the Idaho state capital have risen 11.1% over the last year.

After Boise, McAllen, Texas, and Tucson, Ariz., ranked No. 2 and No. 3 on Realtor.com’s list. McAllen’s affordable home prices, combined with Texas’ favorable tax environment, have made the border city an attractive destination for home buyers looking to move. Tucson, meanwhile, has benefitted from an influx of retirees looking for warm weather and young adults looking to study at the University of Arizona or work for popular companies that have set up shop there like Amazon and Texas Instruments.

Meanwhile, some of the parts of the country that have proven to be among the most popular in recent years are expected to see a bit of a correction in 2020. Las Vegas, which ranked No. 7 last year, has dropped to the bottom of Realtor.com’s list for 2020. Sin City for a long stretch of time saw bumper home price growth, but the housing market there has cooled in recent months.

Similarly, sky-high home prices in places like San Diego, New York and Los Angeles are poised to put a damper on real-estate activity in those areas as most buyers are forced to the sidelines due to a lack of affordability.

Link to Article

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