by Jim the Realtor | May 7, 2021 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
The NSDCC inventory has been a perfect match for the heightened demand of 2021. With roughly 20% fewer homes for sale, the scarcity has energized buyers to grab anything that’s close to being a good match – while the pickier buyers wait patiently.
This month’s detached-home sales will likely set another new record, and set the stage for the summer market when California should be at 100%. Will that means more sellers will feel safe enough to put their home on the market? If so, it should really juice the frenzy further and cause sales to soar.
The demand appears steady – price-wise, if sellers can stay in their shoes, it should be a crazy summer too!
We had 347 sales last month. Could we hit 400 sales in May? It’s possible!
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 28, 2021 | Sales and Price Check, Same-House Sales |
Our seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index rose more in one month than any other U.S. metro area!
The increase in the three-month annual percentage was nearly 22%, and it doesn’t include March and April which have been hotter.
The San Diego index was still positive during the initial Covid months (but muted), so it’s safe to say that the year-over-year percentage increase for the next few readings will be substantially higher than February’s.
Could San Diego end up with 30% appreciation in 2021?
It looks feasible today!
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 28, 2021 | 2021, Boomers, Frenzy, Sales and Price Check |
Zillow is optimistic that we will see more homes being listed for sale:
In prior years, inventory has generally increased in March, and the return to some seasonal normality is a positive sign that the market is reaching a more steady state and could see inventory rise more steadily going forward. With home values skyrocketing, vaccination rates rising, and employees getting long-term guidance on where they can work, we expect an increasing number of homeowners to enter the market and list in coming months. That will come as welcome news to home shoppers enmeshed in bidding wars and watching homes get plucked off the market weeks faster than usual.
But their graph shows an interesting trend. Our inventory had already been dropping since the middle of 2019, and is probably why the beginning of 2020 felt hotter than usual:
If we are nearing two years’ worth of declining inventory, than it wasn’t just a Covid-related event – which means the low-inventory environment will persist after Covid is gone.
If baby-boomers control our destiny and continue to age in place, then it may last for years to come.
But does it impact sales?
Here’s how this month’s numbers compare to the full month of April, 2019:
NSDCC Listings and Sales in April
| Year |
Number of Listings |
Number of Detached-Home Sales |
| 2019 |
494 |
265 |
| 2021 |
293 |
268 |
We have already exceeded the number of sales for all of April, 2019 with a few days left to go!
These are the optimal frenzy ingredients of all-time!
If we do see more homes coming on the market, they should all get gobbled up and cause even crazier market conditions as buyers could have a new listing to consider every week, instead of every month. It might even put a dent in the pricing trend that has been going straight up:
https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2021-market-report-29350/
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 16, 2021 | Inventory, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
It is unusual to have so few active listings for sale. Yet, we are having more sales than ever, with the quality homes all selling in the first week – leaving very few active listings.
Casual observers don’t find any decent homes just lying around, making it difficult to stay engaged. You gotta really want to buy a house these days, which should help keep the demand in check – it’s just for serious players only.
But there are plenty of those, and we should hit October levels of sales in each of the next few months:
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 15, 2021 | 2021, Frenzy, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Here’s the first quarter breakdown so you can see how your area compares with others:
NSDCC First Quarter Sales By Area
| Town or Area |
Zip Code |
New Listings, 1Q |
Closed Sales |
Median SP |
Active Listings Today |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
34 |
27 |
$2,050,000 |
13 |
| NW Carlsbad |
92008 |
62 |
39 |
$1,430,000 |
17 |
| SE Carlsbad |
92009 |
149 |
98 |
$1,367,500 |
15 |
| NE Carlsbad |
92010 |
31 |
24 |
$1,018,500 |
3 |
| SW Carlsbad |
92011 |
50 |
43 |
$1,339,000 |
4 |
| Carmel Valley |
92130 |
131 |
108 |
$1,757,500 |
23 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
60 |
25 |
$2,200,000 |
29 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
144 |
99 |
$1,775,000 |
34 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
130 |
88 |
$2,580,000 |
90 |
| RSF |
92067 |
100 |
70 |
$2,925,000 |
84 |
| Solana Beach |
92075 |
27 |
18 |
$2,300,000 |
12 |
| NSDCC |
All Above |
918 |
639 |
$1,787,000 |
324 |
In yesterday’s 1Q history, there wasn’t any year that got down to a ratio of 2:1 new-listings-to-sales.
All of these except Del Mar are much stronger than 2:1!
The number of active listings is bleak, if you are a buyer, and glorious if you are a seller!
If we do get our regular seasonal increase in inventory over the next two months, it should goose sales even higher. The buyers who have been in the hunt but haven’t won a bidding war yet are highly motivated to get it done!
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 14, 2021 | 2021, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
While it feels like the inventory-less frenzy, there have been enough houses coming to market to set a new record for the number of 1Q sales:
NSDCC Sales, First Quarter
| Year |
New Listings |
Closed Sales, 1Q |
Median Sales Price |
Median DOM |
| 2012 |
479 |
230 |
$811,750 |
76 |
| 2013 |
1,290 |
422 |
$842,950 |
39 |
| 2014 |
1,234 |
576 |
$1,008,750 |
54 |
| 2015 |
1,318 |
634 |
$1,160,400 |
54 |
| 2016 |
1,448 |
572 |
$1,124,500 |
56 |
| 2017 |
1,296 |
604 |
$1,175,000 |
52 |
| 2018 |
1,230 |
569 |
$1,323,000 |
19 |
| 2019 |
1,278 |
535 |
$1,290,000 |
27 |
| 2020 |
1,081 |
572 |
$1,420,500 |
24 |
| 2021 |
939 |
661 |
$1,800,000 |
14 |
The MEDIAN SALES PRICE HAS GONE UP 27% during the covid era!
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 1, 2021 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the NAR. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year. There were just 1.03 million homes for sale at the end of February, a 29.5% drop compared with February 2020. That is the largest annual decline ever and the lowest supply on record.
Yesterday’s real estate news was filled with drops and declines, but around here we’re doing fine:
NSDCC March Sales – Preliminary
| Year |
March Closings |
Median Sales Price |
Median Days-On-Market |
| 2019 |
211 |
$1,299,999 |
17 |
| 2020 |
206 |
$1,445,000 |
12 |
| 2021 |
241 |
$1,810,000 |
9 |
The median sales price rose 25% year-over-year!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 31, 2021 | 2021, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Yesterday’s Case-Shiller Index was a reflection of November, December, and January market data. Here’s a local supplement to help map out what’s coming – and this is only through February:
This was in a fairly tight range of $400/sf to $450/sf for a couple of years. But six months ago, this metric went ballistic, and in that short of time it’s catapulted well into the $500s!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 18, 2021 | 2021, Frenzy, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
These are eye-popping numbers for all of north county – thanks Jerry Ryan!
Percentage of List Price Received
Median Sales Price with Year-Over-Year Change
The latest month-over-month change in median SP was 6%!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 8, 2021 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
We’ve never seen anything like this before:
NSDCC Combined January + February Stats
| Year |
New Listings |
Closed Sales |
Median Sales Price |
| 2011 |
644 |
219 |
$805,000 |
| 2012 |
526 |
215 |
$750,000 |
| 2013 |
801 |
279 |
$835,000 |
| 2014 |
824 |
365 |
$975,000 |
| 2015 |
826 |
344 |
$1,180,500 |
| 2016 |
916 |
320 |
$1,110,292 |
| 2017 |
790 |
348 |
$1,222,000 |
| 2018 |
788 |
317 |
$1,295,000 |
| 2019 |
784 |
330 |
$1,276,000 |
| 2020 |
717 |
371 |
$1,402,500 |
| 2021 |
578 |
421 |
$1,710,000 |
Year-over-year, we have had a 19% drop in listings, a 13% increase in sales, and the MEDIAN SALES PRICE HAS GONE UP 22%!
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