fbpx

NSDCC September Preview

The impending ‘upgrade’ of the MLS starts today at noon, and last until Monday. It will screw up my stats for usual Inventory Watch on Monday morning, so here’s a mid-week preview.

Today there are 491 NSDCC detached-homes in escrow, which the highest number I’ve seen.  The huge number of pendings isn’t due to escrows not closing either:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September 1-15

2012: 127

2013: 114

2014: 112

2015: 117

2016: 130

2017: 139

2018: 107

2019: 102

2020: 149

We still have late-reporters too, so this year’s count should get up close to 160!

But you can feel the slowdown coming, and I think it’s purely because there aren’t more houses coming onto the market.  We already had the lowest number of August listings in recent history, and the rest of 2020 probably won’t get any better:

Are sellers waiting for the 2021 selling season? Probably! Buyers will be waiting!

NSDCC Sales, Jan-Aug

Sales has been robust over the last couple of months, and the national pending-home-sales index above shows how we’re just making up for lost time. We don’t have a local PHSI, so let’s look at how the NSDCC closed sales for 2020 have compared to last couple of years:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan-Aug:

2018: 1,969

2019: 1,928

2020: 1,841

After six months of Covid-19, we’re only 87 sales behind last year!

I bring it up because the doomer-of-the-century chimed in, and I just wanted to present more-current evidence before reading his take on the 2020 market:

https://www.mhanson.com/9-3-housing-rebounds-recoveries-are-two-very-different-things/

He did mention that we got off to a hot start this year, and it can be attributed to the lower mortgage rates. With the Fed saying they are going to ignore inflation, let’s include ultra-low mortgage rates high on our list of why the 2021 Spring Selling Season will likely be craziest market of all-time!

 

NSDCC August Sales

Here is the recent history of August sales of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

August, Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
2013
324
$953,750
2014
246
$1,050,000
2015
278
$1,030,000
2016
288
$1,199,500
2017
279
$1,245,000
2018
276
$1,320,000
2019
264
$1,354,500
2020
334
$1,410,996

The 2013 frenzy was a result of the renewed optimism coming out of the last foreclosure crisis – back when most of our sales (57%) were under a million! This August? Only 18% were under a million!

In August 2013, we had 12 sales over $3,000,000. This year? 44!

Plus we still have the late-reporters – we could hit 350!

NSDCC August Sales – Preliminary

We still have four days to go this month, so it looks like we’ll be setting new monthly sales records again, just like last month (even with a covid asterisk):

Town or Area
Zip Code
# of Sales, 2019 
Median SP
# of Sales, 2020 (so far)
Median SP
Cardiff
92007
11
$1,375,000
13
$1,625,000
NW Carlsbad
92008
23
$985,000
20
$1,094,500
SE Carlsbad
92009
37
$1,107,000
47
$1,165,000
NE Carlsbad
92010
6
$807,500
7
$955,000
SW Carlsbad
92011
19
$1,100,000
20
$1,072,500
Carmel Valley
92130
47
$1,310,000
29
$1,362,500
Del Mar
92014
15
$2,100,000
11
$1,720,000
Encinitas
92024
46
$1,492,500
37
$1,545,000
La Jolla
92037
36
$2,474,000
33
$2,015,000
RSF
67+91
19
$3,100,000
30
$2,762,500
Solana Beach
92075
9
$1,900,000
5
$2,275,000
NSDCC
All Above
264
$1,354,500
247
$1,400,000

I don’t have too much concern about changes to the median sales prices due to the smaller sample sizes, and I doubt there are any buyers out there who would say prices are down.

Last year we had 56 sales over the last four business days of August, so we’ll probably see 300+ this month when it’s all done. Will sales slow a bit towards election day? Only if the supply winds down?

More Showings Than Ever?

Not only are there 92.7% more showings this year than on 2019, but this has to be the most people looking at homes for sale in the history of California!

Has there been a surge of new inventory lately?

Locally, the number of new listings has been normal:

NSDCC New Listings Between June 1 and July 31:

2017: 856

2018: 925

2019: 903

2020: 918

There are just more people looking than ever, and it’s translating into sales.

Our July count of NSDCC closed sales is up to 347, which is 23% higher than in July, 2019.

The Frenzy of 2020

Mortgage rates hit an all-time low yesterday!

Combine the improved purchasing power with the covid-delayed selling season and the lowest inventory in recent history, and we have full-blown frenzy conditions. Look at how July wound up:

NSDCC July Sales & Pricing – Preliminary

Year
# July Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median SP
July Mortgage Rate
# Listings, 1st Half
2012
258
$365/sf
$850,000
3.55%
2,545
2013
297
$418/sf
$930,000
4.37%
2,790
2014
271
$451/sf
$1,018,000
4.13%
2,714
2015
321
$458/sf
$1,025,000
4.05%
2,871
2016
271
$504/sf
$1,110,000
3.44%
2,999
2017
261
$528/sf
$1,240,000
3.97%
2,725
2018
273
$544/sf
$1,280,000
4.53%
2,701
2019
281
$612/sf
$1,300,000
3.77%
2,725
2020
343
$620/sf
$1,420,000
2.99%
2,293

We had 342 sales, and there will be some late-reporters. Wow!

Has pricing caught up with the market conditions yet?

Selling Season Delayed

This graph shows how we’re making up for lost time, with showings almost double what they were last year.

The closed sales are starting to pop too.

We did have one more business day this year than in 2019, but the NSDCC sales this month are already ahead of recent years, and we have three days to go:

NSDCC July Sales & Pricing – Preliminary

Year
# July Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
2016
271
$504/sf
$1,110,000
2017
236
$533/sf
$1,253,250
2018
259
$545/sf
$1,300,000
2019
258
$604/sf
$1,300,000
2020
272
$631/sf
$1,410,927

We’re probably going to have 300+ sales this month, and pricing is stronger than ever.

Inventory Down But Sales Are Strong

San Diego County isn’t included in the graph above but the trend is similar.  The author is happy to point out the negatives, but with inventory still well under what it was last year and pandemic/unrest raging, it’s a miracle that sales are so strong. San Diego County had 3,557 sales last month, which was only down 2.4% from June, 2019, and the median sales price of $600,250 was up 1.7% YoY.

We only have about a month left of prime homebuying before buyers get distracted by school starting and election fervor.  With more inventory and rates in the 2s, the next 30 days should be the best of the year!

Link to OCRegister Article

Are Southern California homeowners back in a selling mood?

Zillow’s weekly report on activity from brokers’ listing services in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties shows owners listed 5,117 existing homes for sale in the week ended July 18. My trusty spreadsheet tells me that’s up 3% vs. the previous week. But this nugget is more noteworthy: It’s the largest addition to the for-sale inventory in 19 weeks.

One unsolved puzzle of the pandemic-riddled economy is why homeowners have refused to be sellers. Were they fearful of home showings? Or skittish about looking for another home to buy? Or perhaps they’re unsure of their own finances?

Even with a recent jump in new listings — the highest since March 7 — the week is down 13% vs. a year earlier. And the four-county inventory of everything a house hunter could buy was 27,170 this week — off 32% in a year. Limited supply may be one reason sales have slumped over the past three months.

Perhaps these newly eager-to-sell owners are reacting to new escrows: 3,696 existing homes were under contract last week, 6% more than the previous seven days.

It’s the 11th positive week for pending purchases out of the last 13 as the housing market rebounds from economic turmoil created by “stay at home” orders designed to slow a pandemic’s spread.

Let’s note that a rapidly uncertain employment picture could be overpowering the record-low mortgage rates that have put some house hunters in a buying mood. California’s U-turn on business reopenings doesn’t help consumer confidence.

And do not forget: Pending sales typically require numerous approvals, most notably from lenders, before the sale closes. June 2020 was the slowest June for closed sales in Southern California in the DQNews database that dates to 1988.

Pin It on Pinterest