Will Home Prices Drop?

by | Jul 5, 2024 | 2024, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check | 3 comments

Here are four tepid responses to the question on whether home prices will drop this summer:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-home-prices-finally-drop-this-summer-heres-what-experts-say/

The lame last paragraph sums it up:

The bottom line

The real estate market seems unlikely to experience significant price decreases nationally this summer, but it’s possible that in specific local markets, there will be dips. Still, until conditions change, like with more housing inventory, it could be tough for prices to decrease. Even then, it could take time for pent-up demand to temper, but it’s possible that overall affordability at least increases, such as if mortgage rates drop.

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You can’t come to much of a conclusion about summer pricing in July, but let’s check the data! How we measure the pricing has been strong all year between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

The world is too crazy for something not to give. My opinion of the pricing trend above is that the higher-priced superior homes are gaining in market share (who wants to buy a dump in this environment?) and it’s providing a head-fake that disguises the truth.

What’s going to give is the number of sales – we may not see 152 monthly sales the rest of 2024.

The commission debacle will be discouraging to the marketplace, mortgage rates aren’t going down enough to make a difference, and the political firestorm will get worse. The only way a buyer will ignore all of that and keep buying is if they see the perfect home.

There will be some nice deals for those who are willing to dig them out.

But I think by the screwy ways we measure it, the NSDCC pricing will look fairly strong, but the best precursor of the future – the number of sales – will be dropping the rest of the year, which will create even more softness. Buyers won’t feel confident about the price they are paying unless they have some decent comps to rely on, and those will be few and far between.

NSDCC June Sales

by | Jun 28, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check

It’s the last business day of June, and while there will be a few more sales added to this total, there will be at least 10% fewer closings than last month:

updated June 30th

The median pricing is higher this month, but I don’t think that means home prices in general are rising. It’s probably because the more desirable properties are the ones selling.

The red numbers suggest the market is slowing down.

Local Trends

by | Jun 4, 2024 | 2024, Graphs of Market Indicators, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check


None of the pricing metrics are great but at least they demonstrate the trends over time. These graphs above are showing the latest data, including last month, and it’s all fairly positive….for now. With the extra inventory, buyers aren’t going to pay crazy money unless they see the perfect house. Sellers aren’t going to give them away though, so the trend for the rest of 2024 should be flat.

These graphs are interactive so scroll over to see the numbers.

There is extra unsold inventory but nobody is going to call this a flood, especially vs. 2019:

Sales will suffer as long as rates and prices are high. Have we gotten used to having fewer sales yet? The trend is going to last a while – probably for years to come:

Populations from the 2020 Census:

Carlsbad: 114,746

Encinitas: 62,007

Carmel Valley, 92130: 61,595

Rancho Santa Fe: 9,344

Under A Million

by | May 30, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Market Surge, Sales and Price Check | 5 comments

Here’s a snapshot of how fast the local market has changed. It went from a relatively-modest suburban area where 3/4s of the houses sold for less than a million dollars in 2003……to a very affluent market!

NSDCC Detached-Homes Annual Sales

True, the inflation rate since 2003 was 70% and a dollar doesn’t buy what it used to back then. But the median sales price went up from $730,000 in 2003 to $2,344,000 this month – an increase of 320%!

April Results So Far

by | Apr 25, 2024 | Sales and Price Check

There may be a lot of turbulence around real estate these days, but sales keep happening!

The pricing metrics are up 5%-6% since last April, and we’re not done yet with sales this month. Helped by Easter being on March 31st this year, the final count of closings for April, 2024 is probably going to exceed last year’s 165 sales – wow!

NSDCC First Quarter Comparisons

by | Apr 15, 2024 | 2024, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim | 1 comment

The first quarter of 2024 is the only 1Q in recent history to have increases in BOTH the number of listings AND the median list price. Previously, increases in pricing had a corresponding dip in the number of listings available for buyers to consider.

If you are like me, you’ve seen a noticeable surge in seller optimism in 2024. It’s not just the median list price that is up 8%, doesn’t it seem like everything is $200,000 higher than last year?

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