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San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Sept

What a difference compared to the second half of 2019:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
June
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
July
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%

If we can sustain the monthly 1.8% increase x 12 = 21.6%.

From cnbc:

This index is a three-month running average, so it represents prices from July through September, when buyers were eagerly seeking homes with more space for working and schooling at home due to the coronavirus.

“Housing prices were notably – I am tempted to say ‘very’ – strong in September,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This month’s increase may reflect a catch-up of COVID-depressed demand from earlier this year; it might also presage future strength, as COVID encourages potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. The next several months’ reports should help to shed light on this question.”

Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to see the highest annual gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in September. Home prices in Phoenix rose 11.4% year over year, followed by Seattle with a 10.1% increase and San Diego with a 9.5% increase.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/home-prices-see-biggest-spike-in-6-years-in-september.html

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Seller’s Market Defined

Let’s use their formula (total sales/total listings) to calculate the NSDCC ratios.

(their ratios were from June, 2020)

NSDCC SFRs Sales/Listings over $1 million

June, 2020: 210/392 = 54%

October, 2020: 300/328 = 91%

We have it good!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Read article here:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying-a-home-during-coronavirus-11603988728

October Sales & Pricing, Preliminary

Here’s the first look at this month’s sales:

NSDCC October Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median SP
2012
189
$382/sf
$765,000
2013
276
$494/sf
$961,750
2014
263
$463/sf
$965,000
2015
234
$473/sf
$1,055,000
2016
283
$523/sf
$1,075,000
2017
262
$533/sf
$1,194,250
2018
241
$569/sf
$1,380,000
2019
247
$605/sf
$1,400,000
2020
304
$660/sf
$1,633,500

We are already 7% higher than any previous month, and we still have three days to go plus late-reporters. We should easily hit 350 sales! Pricing is skyrocketing too.

More NSDCC September Sales

We’re only three days into October so there will still be more reporting in the coming days….but September sales are pouring in!  We had 52% more sales than we had last year in the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad market!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September:

Year
Sept. # Sales
Med SP
Med $/sf
2016
271
$1,175,000
$417/sf
2017
271
$1,237,500
$448/sf
2018
220
$1,312,500
$493/sf
2019
234
$1,361,500
$488/sf
2020
355
$1,475,000
$518/sf

Until recently, you could expect that $10 million would buy you an oceanfront home in La Jolla.

But just in the last 30 days there were oceanfront sales of $14,000,000, $16,000,000, and this one in Bird Rock just north of Pacific Beach that sold for $19,250,000:

NSDCC September Sales, Preliminary

It’s October!

The La Jolla-Carlsbad market had an incredible September, with sales up 43% YoY, and the median sales price was +10%! We’ll have another 20-30 sales reported in the coming days too.

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September:

Year
Sept. # Sales
Med SP
Med $/sf
2016
271
$1,175,000
$417/sf
2017
271
$1,237,500
$448/sf
2018
220
$1,312,500
$493/sf
2019
234
$1,361,500
$488/sf
2020
334
$1,493,250
$517/sf

In September, 2013 we had 275 sales – the most in recent history. We’ll be over 350 this year!

NSDCC September Preview

The impending ‘upgrade’ of the MLS starts today at noon, and last until Monday. It will screw up my stats for usual Inventory Watch on Monday morning, so here’s a mid-week preview.

Today there are 491 NSDCC detached-homes in escrow, which the highest number I’ve seen.  The huge number of pendings isn’t due to escrows not closing either:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September 1-15

2012: 127

2013: 114

2014: 112

2015: 117

2016: 130

2017: 139

2018: 107

2019: 102

2020: 149

We still have late-reporters too, so this year’s count should get up close to 160!

But you can feel the slowdown coming, and I think it’s purely because there aren’t more houses coming onto the market.  We already had the lowest number of August listings in recent history, and the rest of 2020 probably won’t get any better:

Are sellers waiting for the 2021 selling season? Probably! Buyers will be waiting!

NSDCC Sales, Jan-Aug

Sales has been robust over the last couple of months, and the national pending-home-sales index above shows how we’re just making up for lost time. We don’t have a local PHSI, so let’s look at how the NSDCC closed sales for 2020 have compared to last couple of years:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan-Aug:

2018: 1,969

2019: 1,928

2020: 1,841

After six months of Covid-19, we’re only 87 sales behind last year!

I bring it up because the doomer-of-the-century chimed in, and I just wanted to present more-current evidence before reading his take on the 2020 market:

https://www.mhanson.com/9-3-housing-rebounds-recoveries-are-two-very-different-things/

He did mention that we got off to a hot start this year, and it can be attributed to the lower mortgage rates. With the Fed saying they are going to ignore inflation, let’s include ultra-low mortgage rates high on our list of why the 2021 Spring Selling Season will likely be craziest market of all-time!

 

NSDCC August Sales

Here is the recent history of August sales of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

August, Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
2013
324
$953,750
2014
246
$1,050,000
2015
278
$1,030,000
2016
288
$1,199,500
2017
279
$1,245,000
2018
276
$1,320,000
2019
264
$1,354,500
2020
334
$1,410,996

The 2013 frenzy was a result of the renewed optimism coming out of the last foreclosure crisis – back when most of our sales (57%) were under a million! This August? Only 18% were under a million!

In August 2013, we had 12 sales over $3,000,000. This year? 44!

Plus we still have the late-reporters – we could hit 350!

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