fbpx

SD North County, September

Thanks go out to Jerry Ryan, who publishes a monthly newsletter out of the goodness in his heart – giving us another look at the local stats.

He circled in red (above) and I added a red arrow below that show how the inventory has been so different this year – and it really dropped off in September.  Yet sales are actually higher, YTD.

I love his sparkbars too!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Previously, it might have been possible to have a month or two where the SP:LP ratio would be close to 100%.  But in 2021, we might have the ratio be over 100% for the entire year!

We had a surge in sales at the end of 2012 and 2020, and both were followed by incredible frenzy conditions the next year. Are we setting up for a big 2022? Here is the latest report on the national picture:

(more…)

San Diego Case-Shiller By Tiers


https://journal.firsttuesday.us/san-diego-housing-indicators-2/29246/

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With the supply and demand so out of balance on the lower-end, it’s incredible to see that the high-end is out-performing with faster appreciation.  It looks like big money is throwing its weight around!

Note this guy’s negativity in the second paragraph.

I guarantee you that he is going to be wrong, wrong, wrong.

San Diego Inventory & Sales

Most of the country is experiencing increases in their inventory, but not San Diego.  This is why I think our frenzy could – and should – be as hot today as it was last year, but there just aren’t enough homes for sale.

The count of active listings is half of what it was last year at this time!

In spite of our inventory dropping, San Diego sales are hanging tough – down only 11.1%:

From Bill at CR:


Man, what a great time to sell.  Here is Bill’s full article:

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets

NSDCC September Sales

There might be a few stragglers left to report, but this gives us a good reflection of how the summer wrapped up after the frenzy started cooling in June:

NSDCC September Sales

Remember when sales prices were lower than list prices?

  • The median sales price in September is 5.3% higher than the median list price.
  • The median sales price rose 34% year-over-year.
  • The sales count is the third highest ever.

If there were more homes for sale, nobody would be talking about a cooldown!

San Diego Pricing Momentum

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Speaking of Zillow, they also said in this June article that San Diego home prices would rise 24.7% by May.

How are we doing?

There has never been a great measuring stick for home prices, but let’s look at the most common ones:



Yikes – it looks like home prices have been fairly flat over the last 2-3 months, at least according to the standard ways of measuring. Pricing doesn’t have to rise 2% every month to get to their 24.7%, but having upward momentum is critical because once we roll into Plateau City, it gets harder to convince buyers to overpay. They are already cooling their jets:

Get Good Help!

Affluent Frenzy

The 3/4 Report!

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales between Jan 1st and September 30

Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
# of Sales Over $2,000,000
2017
3,888
2,385
$1,230,000
459
2018
3,977
2,166
$1,320,000
464
2019
3,947
2,148
$1,320,000
478
2020
3,677
2,207
$1,424,000
554
2021
3,072
2,519
$1,880,000
1,140

We usually have roughly 3,900 listings in the first three quarters of each year, until covid hit. This year, there were 21% fewer listings, yet sales have soared – up 14% above 2020 sales.

The median sales price is up 32% YoY, and the sales over $2,000,000 have MORE THAN DOUBLED last year’s previous record count!

San Diego County Real Estate, August 2021

My favorite pet peeve of the media insisting that ‘home prices’ and market conditions are interchangeable with the direction of the median-sales-price made the front page of the newspaper today.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/story/2021-09-20/san-diego-home-price-drops

But there is more to it.

Here are other factors they mentioned in the story:

  • The number of listings in August were 47% fewer than in August, 2019.
  • The median sales price for condos hit an all-time high, as more buyers get priced out of single-family homes and are forced to consider other alternatives.
  • The quality of the homes for sale was crap.

The truth?  Due to seasonality – which does play a role as summer closes out – it is better to compare to previous Augusts, not July. But the best indicator of market health is the number of sales:

San Diego County Detached-Home Sales, August

Year
Number of August Sales
Median Sales Price
Median Days on Market
2017
2,445
$610,000
19
2018
2,145
$660,000
19
2019
2,207
$650,000
19
2020
2,380
$739,000
9
2021
2,225
$850,000
10

There have been fewer listings (-16% YTD) than in 2019, yet there were MORE AUGUST SALES!

Never mind that the +15% YoY increase in the median sales price was an all-time high for August, and ignoring that the median market time was nearly identical to August, 2020 (which will go down as the most hysterical frenzy in the history of real estate), just that the number of sales last month were similar to previous Augusts indicates that the market is fine.

Yet the UT headline writer wants you to think there’s a problem.

Get Good Help!

Inventory Shortage

The NSDCC Monthly Sales were hopped up in April and June of this year, but are now getting back in line with previous years. Is the demand ‘cooling off’, or is it because we don’t have enough homes for sale?

NSDCC Listings & Sales

Year
June Listings
July Listings
August Listings
3 mo. total
August Sales
Median SP
2018
476
447
433
1,356
275
$1,325,000
2019
435
459
418
1,312
262
$1,354,500
2020
448
487
457
1,392
350
$1,419,812
2021
386
357
307
1,050
267
$1,950,000

If the number of listings between June-August is usually around 1,350, we are 22% below that this year.

Yet the number of August sales is about normal. But the 37% YoY increase in the median sales price suggests that the demand is not only strong but that we’d have more sales if there were just more listings!

NSDCC Year-to-Date

This year, we are ahead of both of the previous years in total sales, in spite of having 14% fewer listings – and prices being 30% to 40% higher!

NSDCC Listings & Sales, Jan 1 to Aug 31

Year
# of Listings Between Jan 1 – Aug 31
# of Sales
S/L %
Median SP
2019
3,585
1,922
54%
$1,310,000
2020
3,245
1,846
57%
$1,409,677
2021
2,805
2,245
80%
$1,875,000

Prices probably need to go a bit higher to slow this thing down!

The NSDCC Weekly Pendings are tracking similar to 2019, so there should still be some gas in the tank:

Pin It on Pinterest