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“Everything is Hot”

Highlights from the CB CEO:

20% of all homeowners are considering selling in the next 12 months.

40% are thinking of upsizing.

30% want to cash out (probably the downsizers).

30% would move because they can work from home, and 40% to 60% would leave their city or state.

I think we can say that virtually every homeowner has considered selling – all we need is about 10% to 15% to do it over the next two years!

NSDCC Actives & Pendings

Previously we experienced a healthy market when actives outnumbered pendings 2:1. Then as the market heated up, we got used to the 1:1 ratio. Now we have areas where the ratio is more than 1:2!

NSDCC Detached-Home Active and Pending Listings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives
Pendings
Cardiff
92007
10
14
NW Carlsbad
92008
15
24
SE Carlsbad
92009
20
48
NE Carlsbad
92010
4
11
SW Carlsbad
92011
4
19
Carmel Valley
92130
25
38
Del Mar
92014
32
25
Encinitas
92024
36
48
La Jolla
92037
95
45
RSF
67+91
87
50
Solana Beach
92075
8
9
NSDCC
All Above
336
331
West RB
92127
24
63
Scripps Ranch
92131
6
25

What can buyers do?

Going inland doesn’t help – the 92127 and 92131 are hotter than ever.

Just go up in price – La Jolla is nice this time of year!

We will re-visit these numbers in the coming months.

NSDCC Pendings Overtake Actives

This morning we have more homes in escrow than we have for sale!

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings

Listing Status
# of Listings
Median List Price
Active
352
$3,950,000
Pending
353
$1,925,000

Once upon a time I was discussing the actives/pendings relationship with local agent Peter B.  He agreed that a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings was a sign of a healthy market.  If 2:1 was healthy, what is 1:1?

One thing that’s happening is that the action is rising into the upper price ranges. Today we have 94 homes in escrow that are priced over $3,000,000, which I doubt we’ve ever had before.

If we don’t see a surge of more listings, the pendings could extend its lead in the coming days/weeks!

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California Dreaming

I’m not sure a 30-minute TV show will change anyone’s destiny, but hey, at least they are trying:

As part of C.A.R.’s 2021 consumer advertising campaign, the Association has partnered with ABC to be the presenting sponsor of their new documentary, California Dreaming. The 30-minute special will air on KABC-TV, Los Angeles, KGO-TV, San Francisco, and KFSN-TV, Fresno at 9 p.m. (Pacific) on Saturday, Feb. 13. It can also be streamed online.

As part of this partnership, C.A.R. President Dave Walsh introduces the documentary, and closes out the film. Click the link below to watch the documentary’s trailer.

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Actives & Pendings By Area

Historically the market has felt healthy and balanced when we’ve had a 2:1 ratio of actives vs. pendings.

Remember when the Ranch was 10:1 for years? Now look at the market – especially on the lower-end:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives
Pendings
Cardiff
92007
11
16
NW Carlsbad
92008
17
19
SE Carlsbad
92009
9
38
NE Carlsbad
92010
1
12
SW Carlsbad
92011
2
17
Carmel Valley
92130
26
43
Del Mar
92014
43
13
Encinitas
92024
39
45
La Jolla
92037
101
46
RSF
92067
96
35
Solana Beach
92075
11
10
NSDCC
All Above
356
294

Carlsbad, a town of 110,000+ people, has 29 houses for sale?

It’s probably going to get crazier too as the traditional selling season opens up and we see a few more listings trickle out. It would take a flood of new listings to cause the market to slow down now.

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January Inventory By Area

Monday’s breeze

We are only able to sell what’s for sale, so the direction of the frenzy depends on inventory.

If we get a surge of inventory, then sales will increase.

If we don’t get a surge of inventory, then bidding wars and prices go crazy.

We saw the differences here where the inventory shortage under $1,500,000 is particularly acute.

When looking at inventory by area, it’s the same thing.  We are comparing to non-Covid years and this month isn’t done yet, but you can see below that the number of houses coming on the market is well under what it’s been in the past:

January Total SFR Listings By Area

Year
Carlsbad
Encinitas
Carmel Valley
Totals
2017
123
63
54
240
2018
114
75
50
239
2019
118
69
60
247
2020
101
56
45
202
2021 MTD
54
40
29
123

We have 123 listings so far this month and we might get up to 150 by Sunday – but even that will be 25% under last year’s count at a time when we probably have twice as many buyers in the hunt.

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Inventory By Area

What’s it like being a home buyer today? It’s a bonanza if you are in the multiple-millions category – there are hundreds of choices! If you want to stay under $1,500,000, the inventory looks bleak:

NSDCC Active Inventory

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives Under $1.5M
Actives Over $1.5M
Overall Median List Price
Cardiff
92007
1
11
$2,895,000
NW Carlsbad
92008
4
10
$1,872,000
SE Carlsbad
92009
7
9
$1,594,000
NE Carlsbad
92010
2
0
$842,000
SW Carlsbad
92011
5
2
$1,149,000
Carmel Vly
92130
2
21
$3,450,000
Del Mar
92014
0
42
$5,423,000
Encinitas
92024
6
34
$2,737,000
La Jolla
92037
3
95
$4,245,000
RSF
92067
1
100
$5,295,000
Solana Bch
92075
0
12
$5,075,000
NSDCC
All Above
31
336
$3,995,000

Should the lower-end buyers be discouraged? No! There are 92 pending sales listed under $1,500,000 – they just sell fast. The lower-priced you are, the more tuned up you have to be to win a bidding war.

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