Here are the big hitters in the L.A. luxury market talking about today’s conditions, and the PLS:
Highlights from the CB CEO:
20% of all homeowners are considering selling in the next 12 months.
40% are thinking of upsizing.
30% want to cash out (probably the downsizers).
30% would move because they can work from home, and 40% to 60% would leave their city or state.
I think we can say that virtually every homeowner has considered selling – all we need is about 10% to 15% to do it over the next two years!
Previously we experienced a healthy market when actives outnumbered pendings 2:1. Then as the market heated up, we got used to the 1:1 ratio. Now we have areas where the ratio is more than 1:2!
NSDCC Detached-Home Active and Pending Listings
|Town or Area|
What can buyers do?
Going inland doesn’t help – the 92127 and 92131 are hotter than ever.
Just go up in price – La Jolla is nice this time of year!
We will re-visit these numbers in the coming months.
This morning we have more homes in escrow than we have for sale!
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings
Once upon a time I was discussing the actives/pendings relationship with local agent Peter B. He agreed that a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings was a sign of a healthy market. If 2:1 was healthy, what is 1:1?
One thing that’s happening is that the action is rising into the upper price ranges. Today we have 94 homes in escrow that are priced over $3,000,000, which I doubt we’ve ever had before.
If we don’t see a surge of more listings, the pendings could extend its lead in the coming days/weeks!
I think we can say that February has been at least as hot as January! It may be irrational exuberance, but it’s going to continue until there is significant boost in supply.
I’m not sure a 30-minute TV show will change anyone’s destiny, but hey, at least they are trying:
As part of C.A.R.’s 2021 consumer advertising campaign, the Association has partnered with ABC to be the presenting sponsor of their new documentary, California Dreaming. The 30-minute special will air on KABC-TV, Los Angeles, KGO-TV, San Francisco, and KFSN-TV, Fresno at 9 p.m. (Pacific) on Saturday, Feb. 13. It can also be streamed online.
As part of this partnership, C.A.R. President Dave Walsh introduces the documentary, and closes out the film. Click the link below to watch the documentary’s trailer.
Historically the market has felt healthy and balanced when we’ve had a 2:1 ratio of actives vs. pendings.
Remember when the Ranch was 10:1 for years? Now look at the market – especially on the lower-end:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
|Town or Area|
Carlsbad, a town of 110,000+ people, has 29 houses for sale?
It’s probably going to get crazier too as the traditional selling season opens up and we see a few more listings trickle out. It would take a flood of new listings to cause the market to slow down now.
We are only able to sell what’s for sale, so the direction of the frenzy depends on inventory.
If we get a surge of inventory, then sales will increase.
If we don’t get a surge of inventory, then bidding wars and prices go crazy.
We saw the differences here where the inventory shortage under $1,500,000 is particularly acute.
When looking at inventory by area, it’s the same thing. We are comparing to non-Covid years and this month isn’t done yet, but you can see below that the number of houses coming on the market is well under what it’s been in the past:
January Total SFR Listings By Area
We have 123 listings so far this month and we might get up to 150 by Sunday – but even that will be 25% under last year’s count at a time when we probably have twice as many buyers in the hunt.
Rapidly-increasing home prices are nothing new in San Diego:
What’s it like being a home buyer today? It’s a bonanza if you are in the multiple-millions category – there are hundreds of choices! If you want to stay under $1,500,000, the inventory looks bleak:
NSDCC Active Inventory
|Town or Area|
Should the lower-end buyers be discouraged? No! There are 92 pending sales listed under $1,500,000 – they just sell fast. The lower-priced you are, the more tuned up you have to be to win a bidding war.