The coronavirus caused banks to pull back on lending, and one niche that was severely impacted was jumbo loans with less than 20% down payment. In early March, you could have borrowed $2,500,000 with 10% down, and by the end of March the max was down to $850,000.
We got lucky and found Dustin at Mission Fed, who is still funding the jumbos at 90%LTV up to $1.5M! My buyers thought he made the process simple and easy, and we closed escrow on the day Dustin predicted in the beginning. We couldn’t be more pleased with the service.
Here is a quick snapshot of some of the out of the box programs and jumbo programs at Mission Fed. This assumes a score of 720+ on an owner occupied purchase of a single family home:
0% down loans to $690,000 (*Not a VA loan. Anyone can qualify for this)
7/1 ARM at 3.125% with a 1% lender credit back for closing costs
10/1 ARM at 3.25% with a 1% lender credit back for closing costs
30 yr Fixed Jumbos with only 5% down
5% down up to a loan amount of $850,000 – Rate as low as 3.25%
All on one loan. No need for a high rate HELOC
10% down payment up to loans of 1.5M
7/1 ARM at 3.125% with a 1% lender credit back for closing costs
10/1 ARM at 3.25% with a 1% lender credit back for closing costs
5/5 ARM @ 2.625% with a 1% lender credit back for closing costs
30 yr fixed jumbo at 3.25%
I like to help people, so I thought I’d mention him and his contact info for anyone reading who might be in the same fix. I don’t know any other lender offering these programs at these low rates – if you know someone, pass them along.
Dustin Gildersleeve · Mortgage Loan Originator at Mission FCU
In April, pandemic-related pressure drove the supply of homes for sale to its lowest April supply level ever. Even in the years prior to the pandemic, the lack of housing supply for sale was a significant headwind to the housing market. A major reason for the lack of homes for sale is increasing tenure – the length of time a homeowner lives in their home. Since the Great Recession, tenure has rapidly increased from approximately seven years to currently more than 12 years, the highest it has ever been. Increasing tenure means existing homeowners, who supply the overwhelming majority of homes for sale, are not selling, which limits supply.
Prior to the pandemic, rising tenure length was the byproduct of two trends – older homeowners aging in place and many existing homeowners being locked-in with historically low mortgage rates. The pandemic-driven economic uncertainty and concerns about the potential health risks associated with showing homes to buyers have made existing homeowners more hesitant to list their homes for sale, exacerbating the increasing tenure issue.
You Can’t Buy What’s Not for Sale
The graph below shows inventory turnover, the total supply of homes for sale nationwide as a percentage of occupied residential inventory. A quick look will show that inventory hit a 25-year low point in December 2019, with a turnover rate of 1.52 percent. In other words, only 152 homes in every 10,000 were for sale, well below the historical average of about 2.5 percent, or 250 homes in every 10,000. Since then, housing supply had slowly and modestly improved. Enter the pandemic in April. Housing inventory fell once more to 1.58 percent. The chart also breaks down inventory by its components: existing-home and new home inventory for sale. Existing-home sales make up approximately 90 percent of all home sales, which means more existing homeowners must sell their homes in order for supply to increase significantly.
But existing homeowners are staying put. Historically high tenure length of over 12 years means both fewer buyers and fewer homes on the market, and a reduction in existing-home sales. In the months preceding the pandemic, there was some modest improvement in the situation as the pace of tenure length growth had slowed, falling to 7.6 percent year-over-year in February. Then came the pandemic and the annual growth rate of tenure length accelerated to 8.5 percent in March and remained that high in April. As more homeowners were reluctant to list their homes for sale amid the pandemic, the supply of homes available to potential home buyers dwindled further. You can’t buy what’s not for sale.
Existing homeowners are staying home everywhere. Average tenure length increased in April in each of the 50 large metropolitan areas we track relative to one year ago. While beginning to slow in most markets in February, annual tenure length appreciation picked up the pace in 45 of the 50 markets once the economic impacts of the pandemic hit in March and April 2020. As pent-up demand from the pandemic-delayed spring home-buying season enters the market, potential home buyers have very limited inventory to choose from. Lack of supply relative to demand is a sure-fire recipe for increasing house price appreciation.
Our inventory has been very consistent in the past – there is only a 10% spread between the high and the low number of listings between 2014-2019. But now we have 20% fewer NSDCC listings than last year, and the median list price is 9% higher:
Number of NSDCC Listings Between January and May
Year
# of Listings
Median LP
2014
2,245
$1,285,000
2015
2,342
$1,299,000
2016
2,486
$1,425,000
2017
2,295
$1,445,000
2018
2,225
$1,499,998
2019
2,282
$1,550,000
2020
1,822
$1,684,448
There are additional variables in our market today that we’ve never experienced before, so maybe price will get less scrutiny? Will buyers just pay what it takes to get a house they like?
New listings, new pendings, and more showings are happening everywhere. Regardless of what you think about it, there are people who are proceeding with their plans to buy and sell homes.
The industry is cautious, and you see it in the showing instructions. I haven’t seen a listing agent who wants to take your temperature (yet), but other demands are increasing. The basics include signing a Coronavirus disclosure, plus wearing gloves, mask, and shoe coverings to see a home. Some are taking the opportunity to load up, and insist that buyers furnish their loan approval and proof of funds just to SEE the home.
At least we are screening! Not sure if it will encourage or discourage buyers though.
Next will be the happy talk. The California Association of Realtors got started here with a heartfelt message that doesn’t flat out tell you to go buy a house yet, but you can feel it coming:
Are there buyers out there? Retail buyers?
This home listed on Friday, and already has 22 offers!
Hopefully there will be a vaccine, and/or testing for all at some point. It would be great if we had proof of wellness on our phone! But in the meantime, the market is forming.
This is the Compass action across the country – the new pendings are out-pacing the new listings:
The leaders of Kayla’s real estate team will be speaking with America’s most famous appraiser today at 3pm. There will be a NYC-focus, but I’ve heard all three of these speakers before and it will be worth a listen:
Join us and guest speaker,Jonathan J. Miller, industry-leading commentator, appraiser, consultant, and author of real estate reports, for an in-depth discussion:
Valuations then, now and the day after tomorrow… Where are the bargains?
The banking industry. New Corona lending guidelines.
Re-opening the real estate industry – what, when, and how?
One key to any potential comeback is having more homes to sell.
The weekly counts above are the net effect of new listings minus new pendings. When we have a good week of net new pendings (like we did this week with +13), it means a positive move by the new listings is even more impressive. Let’s also note how different this year started.
Last year we averaged 103 new NSDCC listings per week, and today’s count was 79 for the past week, so we’re not far off our normal springtime pace. We can probably expect a very active summer!
The succulents are getting attention during the break!
Excerpted from the latimes.com:
Data released Thursday from real estate company Zillow show the number of deals entering escrow has fallen off a cliff since mid-March. But so too has the number of owners who are listing their house or condo for sale.
Because the market isn’t being flooded yet with listings, lower demand is being met with lower supply, and prices are holding relatively steady.
Jeff Tucker, an economist at Zillow, summed it up as such: “Like a canoe being carried by two people who drop both ends simultaneously, the market slowdown may not tip clearly in favor of buyers or sellers.”
Research from Zillow indicates a similar situation played out in Hong Kong in 2003 during the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. Home prices didn’t fall much, while the number of transactions plunged as people kept their distance from one another to save lives. The market, along with the economy, then bounced back once the epidemic was over.
SARS lasted several months in Hong Kong and killed 774 people worldwide. In the United States alone, almost 50,000 have lost their lives to COVID-19 so far. And social distancing edicts, or surges in the death count from relaxing measures, could roil the economy for many months to come.
As people hunker down in quarantine throughout the state, many must be asking themselves if they are in the right house for them – and if it isn’t, then where to move.
Thankfully, most of the densely-populated parts of coastal California are more expensive than in San Diego County, which makes for a natural progression.
For downsizers who want to live in the same size or larger home, they can come to San Diego and make out nicely! Or get a smaller home AND pocket big profits from their previous sale.
San Diego County real estate should fare well in the coming years – we enjoy a natural housing demand from baby boomers who are looking for a less-costly coastal experience.
It’s good for the ego too – who would criticize them for wanting to move here!
Of all the traditional real estate economists, Lawrence Yun probably gets the most press coverage – but Danielle has been around too. She was at NAR for nine years, then went to realtor.com where she’s been for the last three years:
"Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community... more "
5.0/5.0
by Ann Romanello
305973
"Jim educated us, helped us find the perfect house, and then negotiated us a great deal. I would hate to be sitting across the negotiating table from ... more "
5.0/5.0
by user6611938
332633
"Jim is thorough and will be brutally honest about the homes he shows you. He provides great service and follows through until the very end and even ... more "
5.0/5.0
by Melanie
351390
"I highly recommend Jim as a buyer’s agent. Working with Jim, we closed this week on a San Diego condo. Jim prepared a list of comparable sales to ... more "
