During the inspection of the fixer in Olde Carlsbad, it was determined that further investigation was warranted due to the slope in the floor.
A geologic engineer came out with his fancy altimeter and found that there was a 5-inch difference between the foundation height from one side of the house to the other.
Here’s how it looked. When you have seen me do this, I have set the ball down and let it go where it goes. In this case, the buyer rolled the ball in one direction, only to have it make a U-turn and go the other way…..and it picked up speed:
In the course of the discussion, I asked, “What is the worst you have seen?”
The engineer said, “A nine-inch differential.”
I said, “Ok, so this is kinda in the middle”.
To which I added a solution. Install the popular wood-tile, and have the installer add some extra mortar to help make up the difference. It doesn’t have to get to zero – if it was down to 2-3 inches it wouldn’t be as noticeable.
The buyers asked for a $50,000 reduction in price, and the seller agreed. It could have been worse – cancelling this sale and finding a new buyer who would pay more than $1,050,000 seemed unlikely.
Our sale closed on Tuesday, a couple of days after this closed nearby:
There have been several sound bites lately about the prognosticator who called the last bubble – and at first glance, the headlines want you to think that she is calling the top again. But she’s not – all she said was that housing production is going full steam – an excerpt:
“The perception that housing is drastically undersupplied and that a strong demographic picture lies ahead is creating a false sense of security,’’ according to a report by Zelman’s firm entitled “Cradle to Grave.’’ “By our math, both single-family and multi-family production are already ahead of normalized demand and estimates of a housing deficit are grossly exaggerated.’’
The association is predicting that home sales in California will drop next year, but has a typical guess for the statewide median sales price – expecting a 5.2% rise in 2022:
2022
Their predictions for this year were terrible – they thought pricing would go nearly flat in 2021 (in red box), and instead we had the biggest gain ever (p is projected):
2021
These were my guesses for this year:
MY 2021 PREDICTIONS:
We will have 10% more NSDCC listings than we had in 2020.
We will have 10% more sales.
We will have a 10% increase in the NSDCC median sales price.
Here’s how this year looks through the first three quarters of 2021:
Year
# of Listings (%YoY)
# of Sales (%YoY)
Median Sales Price (%YoY)
2019
3,947
2,148
$1,320,000
2020
3,677 (-7%)
2,207 (+3%)
$1,424,000 (+8%)
2021
3,078 (-16%)
2,535 (+15%)
$1,880,000 (+32%)
NSDCC inventory DROPPED 16%, yet sales ROSE 15% this year! Pricing is +32%!
A graph showing how more people need to leave town to make it worth moving:
A CAR consumer survey showed, for example, that 35% of home sellers are moving out of state and fewer than 15% were moving to a home in the same county as their last residence. “I think that pressure to migrate out of the state is going to be just as strong, if not stronger, as housing, affordability gets worse,” CAR Chief Economist Jordan Levine said. “I think that this is a housing-driven phenomenon, and we don’t have a lot of relief in terms of housing affordability.”
Speaking of Zillow, they also said in this June article that San Diego home prices would rise 24.7% by May.
How are we doing?
There has never been a great measuring stick for home prices, but let’s look at the most common ones:
Yikes – it looks like home prices have been fairly flat over the last 2-3 months, at least according to the standard ways of measuring. Pricing doesn’t have to rise 2% every month to get to their 24.7%, but having upward momentum is critical because once we roll into Plateau City, it gets harder to convince buyers to overpay. They are already cooling their jets:
This company surveys new-home and resale agents every month, and this report confirms more of what we’ve been experiencing:
A few more listings (but NSDCC listings are dropping off now).
More listings not selling/buyers getting pickier.
Buyer traffic is steady, and better than expected.
The Home Listings Index dropped from 70 to 37.5, which means the number of listings increased, which is bad for the new-home agents. But for resale agents, it’s good!
My favorite pet peeve of the media insisting that ‘home prices’ and market conditions are interchangeable with the direction of the median-sales-price made the front page of the newspaper today.
Here are other factors they mentioned in the story:
The number of listings in August were 47% fewer than in August, 2019.
The median sales price for condos hit an all-time high, as more buyers get priced out of single-family homes and are forced to consider other alternatives.
The quality of the homes for sale was crap.
The truth? Due to seasonality – which does play a role as summer closes out – it is better to compare to previous Augusts, not July. But the best indicator of market health is the number of sales:
San Diego County Detached-Home Sales, August
Year
Number of August Sales
Median Sales Price
Median Days on Market
2017
2,445
$610,000
19
2018
2,145
$660,000
19
2019
2,207
$650,000
19
2020
2,380
$739,000
9
2021
2,225
$850,000
10
There have been fewer listings (-16% YTD) than in 2019, yet there were MORE AUGUST SALES!
Never mind that the +15% YoY increase in the median sales price was an all-time high for August, and ignoring that the median market time was nearly identical to August, 2020 (which will go down as the most hysterical frenzy in the history of real estate), just that the number of sales last month were similar to previous Augusts indicates that the market is fine.
Yet the UT headline writer wants you to think there’s a problem.
The NSDCC Monthly Sales were hopped up in April and June of this year, but are now getting back in line with previous years. Is the demand ‘cooling off’, or is it because we don’t have enough homes for sale?
NSDCC Listings & Sales
Year
June Listings
July Listings
August Listings
3 mo. total
August Sales
Median SP
2018
476
447
433
1,356
275
$1,325,000
2019
435
459
418
1,312
262
$1,354,500
2020
448
487
457
1,392
350
$1,419,812
2021
386
357
307
1,050
267
$1,950,000
If the number of listings between June-August is usually around 1,350, we are 22% below that this year.
Yet the number of August sales is about normal. But the 37% YoY increase in the median sales price suggests that the demand is not only strong but that we’d have more sales if there were just more listings!
Great thoughts from Ryan at www.sacramentoappraisalblog.com:
Now let’s talk about slowing.
I’ve had a number of emails lately critiquing my use of the word “slowing,” so I wanted to talk about this openly. I hope that’s cool. If this isn’t your thing, just scroll down. By the way, I’m always good with constructive critique too.
Bro, don’t say slowing: Over the past few months the market has slowed. Or wait, it cooled. No, the temperature changed. I mean, it’s normalizing. Uh, it’s actually stabilizing. Thankfully there isn’t just one way to describe things. I’ve been talking about a seasonal slowing for months because that’s the story the stats are telling. But the word “slowing” almost seems offensive to some, so let’s talk about that.
The market isn’t fragile: The housing market is big and I feel like it’s splitting hairs to argue about whether we should use the word slowing, normalizing, or cooling. Here’s the thing. Use whatever word you feel best represents the market, but it’s probably going to take a few key phrases to do the trick. No matter what, recognize the market is NOT fragile (“fra-gee-lay“) and it doesn’t need you or me to protect it with glowing words. Look, I can think positive thoughts all day long about cryptocurrency, but that doesn’t change the value of bitcoin. In terms of housing, the market is dynamic, multi-layered, complex, and there is no such thing as jinxing the trend by using less-than-glowing words.
Moving fast & slowing: If you aren’t down with the word slowing, that’s fine, but in my mind it’s a reasonable way to describe the market. But to say slowing alone isn’t perfect either as I keep saying because the market is doing two things. It’s moving really fast. And it’s slowing for the season.
Okay, I won’t talk about this again for a while.
My commitment: I will never spin data or sugarcoat things to sound better or worse than they are. My goal is to be neutral while presenting analysis based on the numbers. I’ll come up with helpful word pictures to describe the market too (and sometimes crazy comparisons).
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
drp2drp
2020-12-30
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
AmberleePiercy
2020-10-21
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Cecilia Acevedo
2020-10-01
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
WAH08
2020-10-01
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
bethamunce
2019-09-26
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Ann Romanello
2019-04-06
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
zuser20160915180743456
2018-07-03
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
melanielogue
2018-04-30
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
shaunccornell
2018-03-28
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!
