Zillow Local Predictions

Here are the histories, and forecasts, of our local Zillow Home-Value-Index for each area:

They are forecasting flat or declining prices in three of our larger areas – and they are also predicting a drop-off in values as the selling season will be getting underway in March, 2020 (which sounds far-fetched).

Their track record hasn’t been that great though.  Here is their Carlsbad prediction in December, 2015, when they expected a 1.9% increase for 2016 – the actual was +7%:

The Carlsbad HVI has risen 19% since the beginning of 2016!

Can we agree on one likelihood? Prices probably won’t be going up much in the next year or two.

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/

PHR Modern

The top-of-the-line Pardee tract in Carmel Valley opened this weekend, and they had hundreds of people show up.  The first release had eight homes available, starting in the $1,700,000s, but prices go up quickly from there:

With so many homes being built in Pacific Highlands Ranch, the Solana Beach school district is struggling to catch up.  They need to build a new elementary school, or expand the existing ones.  It looks like they are a little short on funds to build a new school (would they bump the Mello-Roos?), or instead they could bring in more portable classrooms:

Link to school district comparisons

Those spending the first $1.75M to $3.2M will live on Skyglitter Trails:

Local Zillow Forecasts

I snipped this Zillow forecast (above) in October, 2016.  They expected La Jolla home values to go up 2.1% in 2017, which earned a ‘Very Cold’ label.

The La Jolla ZHVI rose 7% in 2017, so their forecast was a tad conservative.  The index has been dropping lately, but they are expecting values to flatten:

 

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Other Zillow forecasts – they like Carmel Valley:

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You can find more data here (they predict the U.S. market will be +6.4%):

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/

Flood of New CV Homes

Click on photo to enlarge

Pardee has four new tracts of homes in Carmel Valley. There will be a total of 377 houses here, plus a fifth tract (and the highest-priced), Vista Santa Fe, which is opening in January.

The grand-opening-after-the-pre-opening is this weekend and remarkably they have already sold 3/4 of the homes released for sale.

Prices are $1.6M to $2.4M in Vista Del Mar. Here’s a tour of the Plan 2 model:

Stucco Valley

A good example of today’s market conditions. At first, you would think a bank-owned house in the prime Derby Hill community in Carmel Valley would garner a lot of attention, and sell quickly. But this one isn’t tricked out with extras, and it’s not a canyon lot either.

Like most sellers, they added a little mustard to their list price – but they were on the market for 55 days before finding the buyer:

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