What will it be like when there are no more new homes to buy in Carmel Valley? Pardee has been building houses steadily for 30+ years, and they will be down to their last 103 lots, once they are done here – and they’ve sold 33 of 44 so far. These are priced from $1.8 to $2.5M.
Toll hopes to sell two per month at Palomar (the image above), and they sold five in October! Altogether they’ve sold 36, which puts them ahead of schedule. They are priced from $2.5 to $3.8M.
This just closed for full price, $1,925,000, which is the highest sale in the history of the Santa Barbara tract. But no surprise – there hasn’t been a sale on this side of the street in 2+ years, and these compete very well with the new homes down the hill. Plus you could have moved in for the holidays!
We featured this bank-owned property earlier as an online auction (which didn’t work out).
They did find a cash buyer – I hope they got in the house to take a look around!
This is a typical example of an REO sale these days. The former owners paid $1,650,000 in 2007, and used a 31% down payment. The original $1,137,500 mortgage was funded by World Savings, and undoubtedly it was a neg-am loan.
It looks like the buyers stopped paying in 2010, but instead of foreclosing and losing a truckload, the bank (Wells Fargo, who bought World Savings) just waited until they knew market value was high enough that they wouldn’t lose money:
The price at the trustee’s sale in November was $1,365,016, and they sold it traditionally for $1,350,000. It means that after paying closing costs, the bank received 100% of the principal back, plus around $150,000 of the neg-am interest that accrued.
These days, banks are only foreclosing once they can make money on them!
There are so many new-home tracts underway in Carmel Valley that those thinking of reselling an older home may want to wait it out – or risk having to battle it out, price-wise, against stiff competition:
Here are the histories, and forecasts, of our local Zillow Home-Value-Index for each area:
They are forecasting flat or declining prices in three of our larger areas – and they are also predicting a drop-off in values as the selling season will be getting underway in March, 2020 (which sounds far-fetched).
Their track record hasn’t been that great though. Here is their Carlsbad prediction in December, 2015, when they expected a 1.9% increase for 2016 – the actual was +7%:
The Carlsbad HVI has risen 19% since the beginning of 2016!
Can we agree on one likelihood? Prices probably won’t be going up much in the next year or two.
With less than 24 hours to go in the REO auction, it looks like the seller got a little antsy and decided to push the bidding closer to their $1,499,900 list price. Will there be a flurry of activity right at the finish line? We’ll see!
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