Carmel Valley REO Closed

We featured this bank-owned property earlier as an online auction (which didn’t work out).

They did find a cash buyer – I hope they got in the house to take a look around!

This is a typical example of an REO sale these days.  The former owners paid $1,650,000 in 2007, and used a 31% down payment.  The original $1,137,500 mortgage was funded by World Savings, and undoubtedly it was a neg-am loan.

It looks like the buyers stopped paying in 2010, but instead of foreclosing and losing a truckload, the bank (Wells Fargo, who bought World Savings) just waited until they knew market value was high enough that they wouldn’t lose money:

The price at the trustee’s sale in November was $1,365,016, and they sold it traditionally for $1,350,000.  It means that after paying closing costs, the bank received 100% of the principal back, plus around $150,000 of the neg-am interest that accrued.

These days, banks are only foreclosing once they can make money on them!

Zillow Local Predictions

Here are the histories, and forecasts, of our local Zillow Home-Value-Index for each area:

They are forecasting flat or declining prices in three of our larger areas – and they are also predicting a drop-off in values as the selling season will be getting underway in March, 2020 (which sounds far-fetched).

Their track record hasn’t been that great though.  Here is their Carlsbad prediction in December, 2015, when they expected a 1.9% increase for 2016 – the actual was +7%:

The Carlsbad HVI has risen 19% since the beginning of 2016!

Can we agree on one likelihood? Prices probably won’t be going up much in the next year or two.

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/

PHR Modern

The top-of-the-line Pardee tract in Carmel Valley opened this weekend, and they had hundreds of people show up.  The first release had eight homes available, starting in the $1,700,000s, but prices go up quickly from there:

With so many homes being built in Pacific Highlands Ranch, the Solana Beach school district is struggling to catch up.  They need to build a new elementary school, or expand the existing ones.  It looks like they are a little short on funds to build a new school (would they bump the Mello-Roos?), or instead they could bring in more portable classrooms:

Link to school district comparisons

Those spending the first $1.75M to $3.2M will live on Skyglitter Trails:

Local Zillow Forecasts

I snipped this Zillow forecast (above) in October, 2016.  They expected La Jolla home values to go up 2.1% in 2017, which earned a ‘Very Cold’ label.

The La Jolla ZHVI rose 7% in 2017, so their forecast was a tad conservative.  The index has been dropping lately, but they are expecting values to flatten:

 

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Other Zillow forecasts – they like Carmel Valley:

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You can find more data here (they predict the U.S. market will be +6.4%):

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/

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