I’ve been convinced for years that we can sell homes by video, and the coronavirus will present that challenge to us now. If agents can be handy with their phone, a decent representation can be made that should be enough to get buyers to make offers – and we’ll figure out the rest:
It’s been ten years since the bottom of the market.
Let’s see how the annual median-sales-prices of detached-homes have changed:
|Town or Area|
- Everywhere’s a million!
- Most areas had their median sales price rise more in the second half (2014-2019).
- The number of sales is very impressive, given the run-up in pricing (we had 2,781 sales in 2018).
- Pricing in the Ranch has averaged +1% per year, which proves we can live with flat pricing for 5-10 years.
- Encinitas is less like Carlsbad and more like its ritzy neighbors to the south. Maybe it’s the culture?
What will it be like when there are no more new homes to buy in Carmel Valley? Pardee has been building houses steadily for 30+ years, and they will be down to their last 103 lots, once they are done here – and they’ve sold 33 of 44 so far. These are priced from $1.8 to $2.5M.
Toll hopes to sell two per month at Palomar (the image above), and they sold five in October! Altogether they’ve sold 36, which puts them ahead of schedule. They are priced from $2.5 to $3.8M.
This just closed for full price, $1,925,000, which is the highest sale in the history of the Santa Barbara tract. But no surprise – there hasn’t been a sale on this side of the street in 2+ years, and these compete very well with the new homes down the hill. Plus you could have moved in for the holidays!
Here’s a brief look at the Plan 2 and an update on sales now that VSF has been open for six months:
We featured this bank-owned property earlier as an online auction (which didn’t work out).
They did find a cash buyer – I hope they got in the house to take a look around!
This is a typical example of an REO sale these days. The former owners paid $1,650,000 in 2007, and used a 31% down payment. The original $1,137,500 mortgage was funded by World Savings, and undoubtedly it was a neg-am loan.
It looks like the buyers stopped paying in 2010, but instead of foreclosing and losing a truckload, the bank (Wells Fargo, who bought World Savings) just waited until they knew market value was high enough that they wouldn’t lose money:
The price at the trustee’s sale in November was $1,365,016, and they sold it traditionally for $1,350,000. It means that after paying closing costs, the bank received 100% of the principal back, plus around $150,000 of the neg-am interest that accrued.
These days, banks are only foreclosing once they can make money on them!
Because they are building such large houses, the one-story plans barely fit on these interior lots that have slopes. Toll has literally redesigned smaller versions so they can get a bigger backyard.
There are so many new-home tracts underway in Carmel Valley that those thinking of reselling an older home may want to wait it out – or risk having to battle it out, price-wise, against stiff competition:
Here are the histories, and forecasts, of our local Zillow Home-Value-Index for each area:
They are forecasting flat or declining prices in three of our larger areas – and they are also predicting a drop-off in values as the selling season will be getting underway in March, 2020 (which sounds far-fetched).
Their track record hasn’t been that great though. Here is their Carlsbad prediction in December, 2015, when they expected a 1.9% increase for 2016 – the actual was +7%:
The Carlsbad HVI has risen 19% since the beginning of 2016!
Can we agree on one likelihood? Prices probably won’t be going up much in the next year or two.
Oh well. Start over.