To demonstrate further how the momentum is building, let’s look at SE Carlsbad.
4th Quarter SFR Closed Sales Between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000 in the 92009:
2023: 9
2024: 23
The optimism coming off the election helped, because ALL of these went pending since November 5th:
Only one had to take a real haircut on price – so far, two sold for full price and one sold over list!
If four of the pendings close this month, it will mean that the 4Q24 sales were 3x more than last year!
True, those could have been the last buyers ever for the 92009. But doesn’t there have to be potential buyers who decided to wait-and-see what 2025 has in store? I think so, and around the 92009, there will be a strong set of recent comps to support the valuations!
It reminds me of the 4th quarter of 2012 which snuck up on us because the short sales and foreclosures had not cleared yet. The NSDCC sales in 4Q12 were 44% higher than in the previous fourth quarter, and the following year, 2013, was the hottest year of the decade.
Check out our new listing in Mystic Point in NE Carlsbad, priced at $950,000!
4142 Karst Rd., Carlsbad
3 br/2.5 ba, 1,509sf
YB: 2007
HOA fee = $360/mo.
LP = $950,000
Open house 12-2pm on Saturday November 23rd.
Are you looking for a turnkey townhome with gorgeous views of the dedicated open space around Lake Calaveras adjacent to the miles of hiking trails nearby? Check out our new listing in one of the best locations at the end of the culdesac in Mystic Point – the premier townhome community in NE Carlsbad! New carpet and paint, central A/C, two walk-in closets in primary, laundry room upstairs, and this home has one of the larger backyards! The long driveway allows for two additional off-street parking spaces too – four-car parking guaranteed, wow! Where else in Carlsbad can you find all of this for less than a million?
The City of Carlsbad has approximately 67 miles of trails and 51 miles of open space trails, supporting a healthy active lifestyle while protecting and preserving open space for residents to enjoy.
Find trail locations throughout the city, including trails perfect for an easy scenic stroll, a challenging hike, mountain biking and beautiful views. Many trails also provide connections from neighborhoods to shops and local services.
Here’s our new listing in Starboard by Davidson Communities – San Diego’s best builder!
7618 Circulo Sequoia, Carlsbad
5 br/3.5 ba, 4,000sf
15,314sf private corner lot
LP = $2,500,000
Davidson’s Starboard neighborhood is known to be among the finest in Carlsbad, and for most the Residence Two is the favorite floor plan. Its 4,000sf surrounds the private 700sf courtyard which extends the indoor/outdoor living area all on a whopping 15,314sf lot.
Five larger bedrooms include a bedroom/full bath suite downstairs which is sequestered off by itself for maximum privacy. The lushly landscaped backyard is a tropical oasis waiting to provide the new owners the perfect place to relax and enjoy the good life, plus it’s just a short walk to the community clubhouse, Olympic-sized pool, and fitness center. Hardwoods, stainless, dozens of big windows for plenty of natural light, four fireplaces, 3-car garage, and dual-zone central A/C.
Either walk the dog around the neighborhood’s 1.2-mile loop or hike/bike the miles of trails nearby! Top-rated Encinitas schools too – wow! If you are looking for an upscale luxury experience that matches your active lifestyle, check this out!
Davidson homes tend to sell for a premium – 7302 Calle Pera closed for $3,025,000 on 9/19! Other comps include 6643 Halite that closed for $2,925,000 on Aug 30th…6626 Halite that closed for $2,475,000 on Aug 30th….7290 Sitio Lima closed for $2,580,000 on 5/23/24 (backed to RSF Rd.)…smaller 7558 Circulo Sequoia on a smaller lot closed for $2,444,000 on 7/3/24…..3056 Via Romaza 3,174sf closed for $2,700,000 on May 28th.
The entry-level homes have kept, or exceeded their value from the frenzy. Generally speaking, it takes $2,000,000 or more to buy a decent house between La Jolla and Carlsbad today.
What about higher up?
It was at the peak of the frenzy in early 2022 that three homes sold in ‘The Ranch’ in Carlsbad, a tract of large homes on half-acre lots next to Olivenhain built by Centex in the early 2000s.
This one got the party started when it closed for $4,200,000, which was $1,000,000 over its list price:
Here’s what has happened since (and the active listing was refreshed after 186 days):
It looks like $4,000,000 is still a stretch in today’s market.
While the July closing of $3,500,000 made it look like the comps were approaching $4 million again, then the same-sized house closes for $3,225,000 last week, thwarting the momentum.
Here’s how it looked:
At Encinitas Ranch, my record sale of $3,760,000 in November, 2021 is still holding up as the highest-priced sale of the tract homes. There was another sale of a home for the same price in 2022 that was 1,000sf larger than mine, but none higher since – this pending probably won’t get there either.
Lower rates may infuse more curiosity into the real estate market, but buyers will still be cautious now.
The ‘Villages of La Costa’ was the name given to the development of four large areas of south Carlsbad. La Costa Valley (bottom left) was graded and model homes being built when this photo was taken. La Costa Oaks South is the green patch to the right, La Costa Ridge in the middle, and La Costa Greens in the upper left, next to where Bressi Ranch and Rancho Carrillo were being graded in this photo.
Here’s a good summary of what Fred had to endure to get the Villages built:
This location is ideal because it’s right at the end of Carlsbad Village Drive and the closest you can get to the village. There have been three houses sell on this street for more than $10,000,000 – shouldn’t a brand-new house sell for close to that? Build three here!
Zillow has every reason to be the nation’s real estate cheerleader since they derive the bulk of their income from realtors. They had been predicting 3% to 6% appreciation locally this year….at least up until two weeks ago.
Something has changed:
Carlsbad NW – 92008
Carlsbad SE – 92009
Carlsbad NE – 92010
Carlsbad SW – 92011
Carmel Valley – 92130
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
La Jolla – 92037
Carmel Valley out in front with a +2% over the next year? Yikes!
It means they think that everywhere else will be flat, at best.