Zillow Lowers Forecasts

Zillow has every reason to be the nation’s real estate cheerleader since they derive the bulk of their income from realtors. They had been predicting 3% to 6% appreciation locally this year….at least up until two weeks ago.

Something has changed:

Carlsbad NW – 92008

Carlsbad SE – 92009

Carlsbad NE – 92010

Carlsbad SW – 92011

Carmel Valley – 92130

Del Mar – 92014

Encinitas – 92024

La Jolla – 92037

Carmel Valley out in front with a +2% over the next year? Yikes!

It means they think that everywhere else will be flat, at best.

Beach Sample

There are a few possible conclusions here.

  • The sellers inherited the property in 2011, so they still had plenty of capital-gains taxes to pay if they didn’t live here. Don’t want to pay so much in tax? Sell for less!
  • The sellers were happy for a fairly quick sale, and having to take less wasn’t an imposition. The same could be said for all long-timers – if they had to take less, they could…..unlike at the last peak when so many were financed 100% or more.
  • The buyers paid $25,550 in costs on behalf of the sellers – a nice sweetener.
  • Maybe the original condition was such a turnoff that the sellers knew they needed to budge.

Recent history would suggest that multiple offers might have been in order. But not here, and certainly not everywhere now…..and the fixers are the first to be taking the hit.

Carlsbad is $2,000,000+

Earlier today we saw how $2,000,000 sure doesn’t go as far as it used to. Once you think your home’s value is above $1,500,000, it’s a quick jump to $2,000,000 – and if you go to sell it, then a net of $2,000,000 sounds even better. Buy any decent coastal house you can get your hands on for less than $2 million!

For the trivia buffs who remember that this house below has history – it sold for less than $1,000,000….3x!

Today’s list price is $2,250,000, and it’s now pending!

Design The New Park In Carlsbad

City officials hosted a community meeting on Saturday for the public to weigh in on three design concepts for Robertson Ranch Park.

“A Walk Through 3 Parks” took place from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. on Feb. 10 at the Carlsbad Faraday Administration Center at 1635 Faraday Avenue, according to city officials.

Residents were encouraged to stop by for a “choose your own adventure” walk-through at three information stations focused on each of the park’s design concepts.

According to the city, residents had the opportunity to “meet and speak with the park design team, learn how they took inspiration from Carlsbad’s natural landscape to create designs that reflect the community’s priorities, ask questions, share ideas and let us know where we got it right and what you would like to change.”

The three potential design concepts for the park were agrarian tapestry, community quilt and rolling hills. All three design concepts come equipped with multi-use sports fields, restrooms, concession stands, pickleball courts, a buffer for nearby homes, a walking/jogging track and a 115-space parking lot.

Each concept will have slight differences in design related to the concept’s theme.

The park’s final design will be decided at two community meetings and through an online survey. Then, a final presentation will be scheduled for the City Council’s approval later in the year.

Depending on popular demand, the final design could be one of the three design concepts or a mesh of all three. The final design is not limited to the scope of one concept. “Based on other park planning processes, the final design usually ends up being a combination of the favorite elements of each design,” the city said.

This was the first meeting for the public to physically weigh in on the new design, with a virtual walkthrough meeting from 6-7:30 p.m. on Feb. 15. Register here to get the link.

The online survey can be found at www.surveymonkey.com/r/RobertsonRanchPark.


Center of Carlsbad

Tim Wrisley took over for his mom as the purveyor of Carlsbad, and he has carried the burden quite nicely with his Carlsbad Magazine. No matter who you know, he probably knows them AND somebody else from the old days at Carlsbad High School.

In fact, it would have been natural for him to declare that the heart of Carlsbad is the high school – because back in the old days, it was the center for most people. But I like the nod he gives to South Carlsbad, the late-comer to the party by 10-20 years, and the conclusion here. One of Tim’s people wrote this:



Carlsbad’s Inclusionary Housing Policy

The City Council unanimously agreed on Tuesday to rezone 16 properties across the city to facilitate needed housing developments and set new affordability requirements on these sites. The action rezones 16 of the 18 properties previously identified for study by the council, except the Cottage Row property on Aviara Parkway on Site 8 and the city-owned “Oak Yard” property on Site 15.

Carlsbad’s inclusionary housing policy currently requires 15% of all units in new developments to be deed-restricted as affordable. Among the rezoned sites, the council agreed to raise that rate to 40% on city-owned properties and 20% on those not owned by the city, following last month’s Planning Commission’s recommendation.

This massive effort completes several years of work and community outreach and checks off one of the largest programs mandated as part of the city’s Housing Element, which requires the city to build 3,873 new units by 2029.

City leaders warned that not completing this rezone by the April deadline would result in the city’s Housing Element being out of compliance and make the city susceptible to Builder’s Remedy projects. This state law allows developers to ignore zoning codes when constructing projects with affordable units in non-compliant cities.


First LCV Listing of 2024

La Costa Valley (1,073 single-family homes) Annual Sales:

The new rule about getting profits tax-free went into effect in 1997, and it motivated people to move! The sales history of this house is an example of how it used to be – make a little money and be on your way:

But over the last 10-12 years, people stopped moving so much. Any of the original LCV homeowners were already empty-nesting, so it wasn’t the kids that kept them from moving. Rates were coming down a bit, and refinancing made it a little more affordable – and there wasn’t anywhere else to move locally that was better than what they had already.

Some may have thought that the 2007 buyer got left holding the bag. But he’s now listed for $2,085,000!

Aviara Point Estate!

Here is our first listing of 2024!

7180 Aviara Drive, Carlsbad

5 br/4.5 ba, 4,710sf

YB: 1997

0.26-acre lot

LP = $3,500,000

Are you searching for a sensational luxury home in Carlsbad’s premier gated community, Aviara Point? This exceptional contemporary estate features newer hardwood floors, high ceilings, solar with Tesla batteries, a dazzling white & stainless kitchen, four generously-sized bedrooms up, and a bedroom/full bath ensuite downstairs plus den with french doors that open onto the courtyard with fountain. The warm, comfy feeling is enriched by windows everywhere that bring in the sunshine plus ocean, lagoon, and golf views too! Some of the homes on the street are multi-level and have stairs everywhere – the only staircase here is between the 1st and 2nd floors. Last year, two Aviara Point homes closed for $4,000,000+ and another one down the hill is in escrow for $3,850,000 (off-market) – extra equity is built in! This is a tremendous value for those who aspire to the heights – check it out!

Open house Wednesday 10:30 – 1:00 (agent preview, public is welcome)and Saturday 12-3pm!


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