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ER Inventory Surge

The new listings of 2022 are only trickling out, but we know that there can be spurts.

We’re seeing one underway in Encinitas Ranch, where five listings are hitting the market this week! The three Coming-Soons will all change to active listings on Saturday.

Buyers – there is hope!

Whenever there are two or more homes for sale in a neighborhood, there is one fact of life:

Either yours is selling mine, or mine is selling yours.

The chances of EVERY house being perfectly priced to reflect their condition AND compare favorably to all other choices is about the same as the Padres chances of winning the World Series.  It’s possible every year, but come on.

There are times when NONE are perfectly priced, causing a stalemate and no sales.

The market is hot enough that at least one of these listings will compare more favorably than the rest, and will sell this weekend.  With few or no other choices for sale currently, the ultra-hot frenzy conditions could pick up two of more of these listings.

Let’s see how many go pending in the next seven days!

Zillow Local Forecasts

The Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are down 1-2 points from their previous guesses last month, but still very strong. This is their third consecutive month with similar forecasts:

NW Carlsbad, 92008:

SE Carlsbad, 92009:

NE Carlsbad, 92010:

SW Carlsbad, 92011:

Carmel Valley, 92130:

Del Mar, 92014:

Encinitas, 92024:

La Jolla:

Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:

For those who are steeped in real estate history, it’s hard to comprehend how prices could increase 25% to 30% this year – to think pricing could go up ANOTHER 20% next year is straining the brain!

I think it will happen, and be accomplished by mid-summer.

Encinitas Ranch – The Comps, Part 2

Will my sale end up being a fluke, or are these prices sustainable? It will depend on how the homes are sold.

This is another pending sale that will likely close above $3,000,000 too:

https://www.compass.com/listing/819-jensen-court-encinitas-ca-92024/891355227122800457/

It will be the sixth sale over $3,000,000 this year in Encinitas Ranch!  With a solid foundation of six sales, the next peak to climb is obvious – potential ER sellers will be wondering if they can get $4,000,000!

Buyers will cringe at the thought, and be reluctant to be the first to pay it.  Everything will have to go perfectly for a $4,000,000+ sale to happen.

Let’s identify what could impede such a sale:

  1. Coming Soons – Advertising the property to the public before it’s ready to be shown just diminishes the urgency. By the time a buyer does see it, their dwindling enthusiasm and disappointment has already set in.
  2. Value-Range Pricing – As we head into the post-frenzy era, the gimmicks and sideshows only wear out the buyers. They want the truth, and an easy path to purchasing the home.
  3. Poor presentations – Professional photos and videos will be a must – buyers want to swipe! Once they get into the home, it better look like a top-notch model home to warrant $4,000,000.
  4. Hard to show – Having to clear hurdles like submitting financials just to see the home, having tiny windows of time to see the home, and having the listing agent follow around the buyers like a hounddog only create anxiety in buyers.
  5. Unattractive High List Price – The list price will need to start with a three, to get to a 4-handle. Otherwise, the gap will seem too large, and buyers will be tempted to wait it out.

But even if the sellers and listing agent handle all of the above correctly, it will still come down to how they handle the offer(s) once received.  If days go by and then the typical counter-offer is returned with several demands like free rent for 60 days after close, buyer must waive appraisal (or all contingencies), and a higher price than offered, it will be easy for buyers to back away.

Get Good Help!

Encinitas Ranch – The Comps

When my listing of 1463 Paseo de las Flores hit the open market on October 18th, there had been three other properties that were providing guidance on price.

The monster 7,277sf home at 519 Samuel had been in escrow for almost two months, and 628 Lynwood had been languishing unsold for 110 days. On September 27th, a model-match to my listing, 820 Jensen, came on the market at $2,899,999, which was devastatingly-low compared to our anticipated list price of $3,395,000.  I called the owner/agent to suggest that she may want to raise her price, and sent her the six comps that were outside Encinitas Ranch but all over $3,000,000.

Her response? “We’re comfortable with our price”.

I called her a couple of weeks later right before we went on the market to inquire about her sales price.

Her response? “You’ll see it in the MLS when it closes”. Great, thanks.

(The eventual buyer’s agent told me that she received four offers – three at her list price, plus his cash offer at $3,060,000.  The sellers took his cash offer.)

I was undeterred, and we hit the market at our $3,395,000 on a Thursday afternoon.

The next day at noon was the first showing, done virtually by an assistant.

Any buyer who responds that quickly must be highly motivated, so I didn’t hold it against them that the principal agent didn’t come or that it was a virtual showing. It would be hypocritical for me to have an objection since I’ve sold multiple houses virtually.

They made a full-price cash offer by the time I got to open house at noon on Saturday.

Greg and I entertained a big crowd at the open house, and one of the first attendees was a woman who brought her mom and her best friend, which I took as a good sign. She mentioned that she knew the previous owners, and had been to dinner parties at the house!  They stayed for an hour, during which I told her that I had received a full-price cash offer.

Before the open house was finished, I received her cash offer for $3,500,000.

Every other agent would have taken her offer.

It was a whopping $105,000 higher than the first offer, she was charming, and she had spent serious time inside the house.  It would look like a no-brainer choice to every other agent.

But I’m not like every other agent.

I called the first agent as I was leaving the open house, and told him I had received the $3,500,000 cash offer.  I asked if he wanted to beat it, and if so, that I would go back to the second buyer and give her the same chance to beat his.  We would go back and forth until a buyer prevailed.

We went five rounds before the second buyer passed at paying $3,800,000, and – armed with this insider information – she ran over to Lynwood and bought that house instead for $3,550,000 and a 10-day escrow. It still shows as a pending listing today, but I know what happened because the listing agent is advertising his good fortune all over Facebook.

The sellers of 820 Jensen? They were the buyers of Samuel, and they paid full price, $3,599,000.

We are closing on Monday – more stories to come!

Bidding War! Part 2

The seller of our new listing in Encinitas Ranch has been discussing a move for six months.  He contributed his decision to sell now primarily to what he read here on the blog.

Specifically, that what appears to be a frenzy slowdown is NOT reflective of the market normalizing – instead, it’s due to just the opposite; a continuing decline of inventory.

What’s my #1 tip for sellers? Sell when everyone else isn’t!

The Encinitas market is starved for higher-end luxury homes, especially those sexy, turn-key ready homes that can be occupied within 30 days (a dearth made worse by most listing agents demanding 60-days free rent after closing for their sellers).

We thought if we went on the market in October and appeal to the buyers who wanted to close and occupy by Thanksgiving, we’d have a special niche all to ourselves.

But we had work to do to maximize the appeal, so we spent the last two months and $50,000 to get the home in tip-top condition. By yesterday, it was perfect – thank you Donna!

What happened next wasn’t luck or happenstance.

It was a planned strategy to maximize the opportunity for buyers to not only purchase a home yesterday, but to also have the process be a fair and clear competition utilizing full transparency. I made sure that everyone knew the rules of engagement, and how to win.

Today, I get to go back in the jungle.

We made a cash offer with different clients yesterday who are hoping to buy a home in Carlsbad, and got the usual routine. Agent doesn’t answer his phone, doesn’t call back, doesn’t acknowledge receipt of the offer until today and leaves a cryptic email suggesting that he might have multiple offers but no other game plan on how the winner will be determined. You know, the normal way agents handle their business.

Full transparency is the best way to achieve top dollar, and you can only find it here!

Our New Listing in Encinitas Ranch!

Sometimes it’s easy for homeowners to make the decision to move, and for others it takes careful deliberation to come to the right conclusion – and it’s relative to how much they love their home, and if they can do better. It took months of discussion to decide to let this one go – it’s a trophy property!

1463 Paseo De Las Flores, Encinitas 92024

4 br + den/4.5 ba, 4,318sf

YB: 2003

$3,395,000

Breathtaking ocean & golf course views from this former model home that has been extensively remodeled and upgraded! Newer kitchen has polished quartzite counters, Wolf appliances, built-in Sub-Zero fridge and dual dishwashers too! Gorgeous bleached-oak hardwood floors throughout the home, including the four en-suite bedrooms plus office and theater room – and just wait until you see the richly appointed primary suite! Live the coastal lifestyle right on the golf course!

https://www.compass.com/listing/1463-paseo-de-las-flores-encinitas-ca-92024/897812950230112937/








Open house this weekend, 12-3pm!

JC Is Lord Apartments

The developer paid $4,900,000 cash for this site in 2020, so he must have had some assurance from the Encinitas City Council/Planning Commission that he could build his 72-unit apartment house here.

It appears that expanding La Costa Avenue to four lanes will be required – though there aren’t plans or money to do so – yet the Encinitas City Council approved the development:

https://thecoastnews.com/encinitas-council-approves-new-plans-for-vulcan-avenue-project/

An excerpt:

The site of the project is 1967 N. Vulcan Avenue in the northernmost part of Leucadia near La Costa Avenue. The intersection of Vulcan and La Costa is a major concern to residents who oppose the development.

Wermers said the updated project plans now include changes to Vulcan Avenue that are meant to make the area safer for pedestrians and bicyclists.

“When we do this it also promotes vehicle safety,” Wermers said.

Wermers also made a commitment to pay his company’s fair share in whatever changes the city decides to make at the Vulcan and La Costa intersection.

“Whatever you guys decide, we want to pay our fair share,” Wermers added.

There was more support for the newly redesigned project, some pointing to the need for low-income housing in the area and the project will boast 12 units designated as low-income.

“We need more roofs over our heads. This housing project is the perfect one to bookend Vulcan Avenue and Leucadia,” resident Kevin Daniels said. “I can’t express this enough, this project is a perfect fit.”

https://thecoastnews.com/encinitas-council-approves-new-plans-for-vulcan-avenue-project/

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