Top 20 Cities

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At this rate, the median price in 2039 will be $2,988,000! Hat tip to Richard!

San Diego County residents who bought homes in the 90s are reaping the benefits of a hot housing market.

Homebuyers who purchased their properties 20 years ago are “sitting pretty” in 2019, according to a study by GOBankingRates.

The study ranked 15 California cities by property appreciation rates. Six of the top 10 increases were in the San Francisco area. Two Los Angeles-area cities, Santa Monica and Newport Beach, finished first and second on the list, respectively.

The only San Diego County city on the list of top 20 locations for home appreciation was Encinitas.

In 1999, the median home value in Encinitas was $343,500. The figure now stands at $1,198,000, marking a 248.8 percent increase in value over 20 years, the study reports.

The five-year rental income on an Encinitas home is $229,688, according to the study.

See our interactive map of top California housing markets for home value increases:

Zillow Local Predictions

Here are the histories, and forecasts, of our local Zillow Home-Value-Index for each area:

They are forecasting flat or declining prices in three of our larger areas – and they are also predicting a drop-off in values as the selling season will be getting underway in March, 2020 (which sounds far-fetched).

Their track record hasn’t been that great though.  Here is their Carlsbad prediction in December, 2015, when they expected a 1.9% increase for 2016 – the actual was +7%:

The Carlsbad HVI has risen 19% since the beginning of 2016!

Can we agree on one likelihood? Prices probably won’t be going up much in the next year or two.

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/

Encinitas Upzoning

Nice drone work over Encinitas in this video:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has made clear that cities that fail to commit to building affordable housing will be in trouble.

His actions are making Encinitas nervous.

The North County city is one of 47 municipalities — the only one in San Diego County — that has failed to submit a plan to the state identifying sites for housing production of all income levels. After twice rejecting those plans at the ballot box, a judge is intervening.

Voice of San Diego’s Jesse Marx and NBC 7’s Catherine Garcia unpack Encinitas’ ongoing legal problems over affordable housing.

Link to Article

Olivenhain Luxury Estate

Here’s a video tour of our new listing at 939 Calle Santa Cruz, a luxurious 4 bedroom (plus office), 3 bath, 4,739sf home with 3-car garage plus RV parking on an half-acre lot in Olivenhain.  List price is $2,200,000.




It has the size, privacy, and luxury of a home you’d find in neighboring Rancho Santa Fe, but with modern conveniences such as cable TV/internet, sewer, and natural gas on a much-more manageable half-acre lot size!

Enjoy the well-appointed 4,739sf interior space and then mosey through one of the several floor-to-ceiling glass doors to the exterior – where you’ll find equally engaging features such as outdoor kitchen/BBQ, solar-heated pool and spa, gas heaters, waterfall, and ADU.

Encinitas Pre-Approved ADUs


The cities of Carlsbad and San Diego should do this too:

Encinitas is offering homeowners a money-saving solution for building granny flats on their properties, hoping that these units will help meet the city’s housing goals.

The City of Encinitas created the Permit-Ready ADU (PRADU) program that will offer property owners pre-approved building plans for granny flats.

The city said this will reduce pre-construction costs, create expedited building permits and waive all city development fees.

This comes after the San Diego Board of Supervisors voted to waive permit and development fees for granny flats countywide earlier this month.

Encinitas is working with two local architects to offer homeowners a variety of pre-approved building plans.

PRADU is estimated to save homeowners up to $18,000.  The city said it will have the pre-approved plans available at the Development Services Department’s front counter.

Read full article here:

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Encinitas-to-Offer-Homeowners-a-504658272.html

Local Zillow Forecasts

I snipped this Zillow forecast (above) in October, 2016.  They expected La Jolla home values to go up 2.1% in 2017, which earned a ‘Very Cold’ label.

The La Jolla ZHVI rose 7% in 2017, so their forecast was a tad conservative.  The index has been dropping lately, but they are expecting values to flatten:

 

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Other Zillow forecasts – they like Carmel Valley:

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You can find more data here (they predict the U.S. market will be +6.4%):

https://www.zillow.com/home-values/

The ‘Rancho’ Effect

People are feeling a ‘change’ in the market, and wonder what will happen. The rapid escalation of prices has turned real estate into a rich man’s game – and you need serious horsepower to participate!

As the rest of North San Diego County’s coastal housing market feels the ‘Rancho’ effect, we will see more listings coming to market, listings taking longer to sell, and bigger gaps between list prices and sales prices.

In the surrounding lower-priced areas, the action has been much faster – we’re used to the quality homes selling in the first week or two. Let’s compare RSF to Encinitas to demonstrate what we can expect from now on:

Category
Encinitas
Rancho Santa Fe
Population
63,184
3,117
Active Listings
134
172
October Solds
48
23
Actives/Solds
2.8
7.5
Oct Average DOM
40
73
Oct Average SP:LP
95%
87%

We’ll have more homes on the market, slower market times, and bigger gaps between the list prices and sales prices. It’s how they do it in the Ranch!

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