So far, 2025 is looking a lot like 2024!
Last year was fantastic, statistically, so if we just mirror those results then this should be a terrific year for local real estate.
Stay tuned for our new Carmel Valley listing – coming here tomorrow!
Instead of insuring the rebuild after a fire, it is in everyone’s best interest to find ways to prevent homes from burning down. The Bel Air Fire of 1961 led to the banning of the wood-shake roof, and homes built today have little or no overhanging eaves and what they do have is closed off. Can concrete homes built by 3D printers be far behind?
These fires should lead to a rapid expansion of private firefighting, and while we’re at it, private police/security should be a booming industry too.
A good article on the former:
Link to free WSJ article
The final guesses on the number of NSDCC January listings are in – here they are:
211 – Eddie89
213 – Shadash
216 – regina
246 – Anne M
267 – Surfrider
280 – doughboy
293 – Joe
296 – Tim DeRoche
303 – Tom
307 – Jun
311 – SN
317 – CB Mark
318 – Nick
328 – Majeed
337 – natalie
353 – Derek
355 – Skip
365 – Leo
401 – Dr k
417 – Susie
421 – Giving Cat
There have been 64 new listings this month, as of this morning.
Last January’s count was 241, so 400+ might be a stretch now. Will we get to 300?
The pendings line is barely noticeable on the graph above because it mirrors the 2024 line closely. The number of pendings dropped because so many sales are closing – there have already been 43 NSDCC closed sales in January, and we should exceed last January’s count of 102 sales fairly easily.
But the change in active listings is the lowest of the last three years – only a slight uptick. It would take a real crush of new listings for the active count to get to 400 by the end of the month, and the fires will probably delay any surge this month.
Over 100 people attended our open houses over the weekend, and the home was well received. It is rare to see an 80-year old bungalow improved this nicely!
The first responders have done an incredible job evacuating so many thousands of people at a moment’s notice. It will be one of the major stories of this fire because of how few casualties there are – it’s been a miracle.
How you can help:
You can support the Red Cross by making a donation online, by calling (800) 733-2767 or texting REDCROSS to 90999.
GoFundMe has created a centralized online hub housing all verified fundraising pages related to the wildfires. The hub will be updated with accounts as they are verified by the GoFundme team. At the top of the hub is also GoFundMe’s Wildfire Relief Fund 2025.
The California Community Foundation distributes grants to affected communities through its Wildfire Recovery Fund. The foundation’s team utilizes data from CalFire and CDC’s Social Vulnerability Index to ensure their grants target the neediest communities with both intermediate recovery and long-term support. You can make a monetary donation online or by mailing a check to the “California Community Foundation” at 717 W. Temple St., Los Angeles 90012. Include “Wildfire Recovery Fund” in the memo.
Musicares, a nonprofit safety net of health and welfare services for the music community, is offering anyone in the music industry (with five or more years experience in the music business) with immediate assistance including $1,500 financial assistance and $500 food vouchers. Contribute to Musicares efforts by making an online donation.
Best Friends Animal Society, has activated two pet pantry locations in Los Angeles that can provide essential supplies including pet food, cat litter, pet beds and other necessary items as well as human sanitary products for those who have lost everything. Contribute to the pantries here: donate online. All funds go toward emergency assistance to pets impacted by the wildfires in Los Angeles. Donations top this fund are also directly supporting pet lifesaving work in the area.
There is also a call for supporting the Los Angeles Fire Department by donating to the Los Angeles Fire Department Foundation. The foundation is seeking monetary donations to equip firefighters battling the wildfires with items including emergency fire shelters, hydration backpacks and wildland brush tools. Click here to donate.
My favorite video of a local fire – no homes were lost!
Here are the ten most-expensive home sales in America last year:
https://robbreport.com/shelter/homes-for-sale/most-expensive-us-home-sales-1236150305/
This guy flew over the #1 home and a few others on the coast:
Jackie said I should do a post on the fires, but I don’t have any personal knowledge of what’s happening or have anything to add to what we are seeing on television.
But I’ll add a couple of thoughts.
The Cost of Insurance Will Increase Dramatically – If You Can Get It. The unwillingness of major insurers to underwrite policies in California has caused more dependence upon the California Fair Plan, which has $200 billion in reserves and $300 billion in exposure:
Another concern is what the fires could mean for the California FAIR Plan, the state’s last-resort insurance plan for those who lose or can’t find traditional coverage.
Over the past half-decade, the number of homeowners on the plan — a state-mandated insurance pool with buy-in from private insurers — has more than doubled to around 350,000. That’s pushed the FAIR Plan toward the brink of insolvency.
Many who lost homes in the L.A. infernos were likely on the plan. According to an analysis of FAIR Plan data, there are more than 26,000 FAIR Plan properties in ZIP codes impacted by the fires across Los Angeles County.
If insurers cannot cover those liabilities, it’s possible they could pass on those costs to all of their home and business customers in the form of higher premiums.
“We are one event away from a large assessment — there’s no other way to say it,” California FAIR Plan President Victoria Roach told lawmakers last year. “We don’t have a lot of money on hand, and we have a lot of exposure out there.”
The insurance industry will probably have major changes in store besides premium hikes. The deductible amounts could go much higher, and forget about getting the guaranteed-replacement policies.
One great alternative is private firefighters. They are on the job in L.A., and we’ve seen them in Rancho Santa Fe during the last fire here. Instead of insuring to rebuild your home, how about preventing it from burning down instead? For many, that would be worth the extra cost.
Open Space Is A Major Liability. Cities like Carlsbad are proud of having major portions of their cities dedicated as open space. I’m sure the gnat-catchers are benefiting, but what about the people? Everyone complains about the high cost of housing. Can’t we live with a smaller patch of open space and build more homes? It would reduce the city’s liability from fires and provide more housing opportunities!
Above is Denk Mountain, also known as Dead Mountain. It’s just scrub brush and a few trails for hikers and mountain bikers. There are probably a few thousand people every year who enjoy those benefits, but the vast majority of the 110,000 people who live in Carlsbad have never heard of it and would be radically affected if another fire comes blowing over it like it did in 1997.
Or how about Calaveras? Look at the homes surrounding this open space just waiting to get burned up some day. Try to get fire insurance for one of these canyon-front homes today!
Another benefit? Make the home builder put all the power lines underground while they are at it, which would make everyone happy!
We’ll carve out some trails too, don’t worry. But is the beauty of these areas that great? Not really – not when a nickname is Dead Mountain. Let’s pave paradise – for our own good!
Some have said they have never seen anything like these fires. But it’s happened before:
Check out our new listing!
506 S. Freeman St.
3 br/2 ba, 992sf
YB:1944
LP = $1,399,000
Are you looking for an updated beach bungalow that is walking distance to everything downtown Oceanside has to offer? This is it! Hardwood floors, like-new kitchen and baths, new paint, 2-car garage, big backyard with detached office plus lemon, fig and avocado trees – wow! Great candidate for adding an ADU.
Recent comps include 208 S. Ditmar 2br/2ba 1,106sf closed for $1,385,000 on 12/16/24; 310 S. Tremont 3br/2ba 940sf closed for $1,375,000 on 10/24/24; 713 Stanley 3br/1ba, 996sf closed for $1,300,000 on 9/19/24.
https://www.compass.com/listing/506-south-freeman-street-oceanside-ca-92054/1750199079927778353/?origin=listing_page&origin_type=copy_url&agent_id=5b51d51d9474a8364b9a8353
Two hours after listing input:
Why should home buyers be optimistic about 2025? It’s because sales have bottomed (hopefully):
San Diego County Annual Sales of Detached-Homes:
2003: 28,251 (high point)
2021: 25,252
2022: 18,378
2023: 14,003
2024: 14,837
It’s still going to be a challenge though.
This website says there are 530,430 houses in San Diego County, and this one says 634,366 houses. It means that last year somewhere between 2.3% to 2.8% of the total houses county-wide sold last year.
Yes – more than 97% of the detached-home owners in SD County didn’t sell last year!
About the best we can expect is to get back to the 2022 level, which would be a 19% increase in sales, year-over-year. It would take a major price adjustment for sales to go that crazy, because rates are going the wrong way and inventory will probably be going up, not down.
How will pricing break out of the gate? Won’t home sellers – the vast majority of them selling their home for the first time in 10-40 years – want to add a little mustard to their list price, just to see?
It’s easier to imagine that scenario, than agents talking their sellers into a very attractive price this early on.
We’ve received offers on my listing on La Costa Avenue but everyone wants a 10% discount, even though I think I have it priced in already. I’ve been hoping that a slew of new listings nearby will hit the market this month in the mid-$2 millions to make my $1,995,000 list price look more attractive.
How am I doing so far?
Here is the first nearby competitor, and it’s priced the same as mine!
https://www.compass.com/listing/2014-saliente-way-carlsbad-ca-92009/1748808396982187689/
Yikes! Bad for me, but great for the 92009 buyers.
If more of the 2025 listings hit the market with an attractive price, we could have frenzy-like conditions!
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
