Some Day The Surge Will Come

Another believer in the lock-in effect.

The drop in percentages is 8.5% over two years, which sounds like a full-blown liquidation event if you ask me. These are national stats so those in the more-reasonably priced areas and/or areas that didn’t appreciate much lately probably wouldn’t care as much about losing their low rate.

One of these years, there is going to be a real surge of inventory. Next year? I say probable.

NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1 – Sep 30

2018: 3,998

2019: 3,969

2020: 3,714

2021: 3,254

2022: 2,570

2023: 2,137

2024: 2,445

This year has had +14% more listings than last year, so hopefully we’re past the bottom.

Who is rooting for 3,000-ish for the selling season next year? Besides me! 😆

Friendly Deer Population

It will be a very long time before people like this can afford a home here (if ever), so they might as well move elsewhere. But he also touches on the perceived ‘travesty’ of property tax rules, which makes me think that the youngsters will dismantle Prop 13 once all the elderly die off.

When wealth advisor Clint McCalla, 37, lived in San Diego with his wife and kids, they loved being close to the beach and the world-class zoo.

“It was a beautiful city and great place to raise a family,” explains McCalla. “But the cost of living was far too high to justify staying.”

They were renting a house—and having trouble finding one to buy.

“Property tax rules in California are a travesty,” says McCalla. “You currently have a system that provides legacy real estate owners and investors with a disproportionate benefit relative to new buyers. Combine that with a state that has refused to build new housing in any significant way for 20 years, and it creates the problem we now see.”

That, along with income taxes, factored into the couple’s decision to leave California and move to Austin, TX, in September 2023.

Now that they’ve settled in, the McCallas couldn’t be happier with their choice.

“Almost everything costs less in Austin,” says McCalla. “Housing is the biggest savings for our family. We’ve been able to buy a wonderful home in an excellent school district with great neighbors, sunset views, and an exceedingly friendly deer population.”

Although he misses his friends and colleagues dearly, he knows the move was the right decision for his family. “I didn’t feel like we would ever be in the position to get ahead in California, with how things were trending,” McCalla says.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/where-wealthy-millennials-moving-to-and-from/

Make Me Sell

Last week I received a call from the Compass Chief of Staff to President of Growth & Communications. His job was to notify all of the Compass agents who published something about our new program that took the same name as the now-defunct program at Zillow. Does Zillow recognize the powerhouse that Compass has become and try to parlay the opportunity into something positive for both companies? Of course not. Instead, they threatened to sue Compass for using their old slogan that they don’t use any more.

While Jacob and I were chatting it up, I had to ask, “Of the 30,000 Compass agents, how many calls do you have to make on this topic?” His answer? Six. Only six Compass agents in the country are doing some sort of website/blog! He was shocked when I told him that we get 1/3 of our business from blog readers.

Here is the same blog post I ran when the MMM program was first announced – now with Make Me Sell as the new name:

(more…)

Over List, September

There are so many signs that buyers don’t have to pay over the list price Why do they keep doing it?

  1. Tired of waiting.
  2. Don’t want to miss another one.
  3. Agent only knows to offer more.
  4. Listing agent gives them the impression that there are multiple offers.

The softness is fairly easy to see.

NSDCC September Sales:

Closed Over the Original List Price: 21%

Closed $100,000+ OVER the List Price: 8%

Closed $100,000+ UNDER the List Price: 46%

The 8% vs. the 46% should be noticeable to even the casual observers, shouldn’t it?

Yet, the favorite pricing metric is back above $2,400,000 (which was April/May 2022 levels):

Inventory Watch

The number of pendings should drop off after today (the last day of the month has the most closings).

The Under-$1,500,000 should be where the action is the hottest, but for the last three weeks, there have been 30+ actives listings in that category.

It’s the first time in 2024 that the cheapies have gotten up to 30+ in number – and there were only three weeks in 2023 that were over thirty (all in the 4th quarter).

For most, the slowdown has arrived. There should be an occasional good buy though!

(more…)

Best & Worst States For Gen Z

Pittsburgh at least has a couple of pro sports teams. The Steelers are looking good, and the Pirates have that pitcher who came in second for rookie-of-the-year!

Top 10 Best Locations for Gen Z Homebuyers

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania was the top city for young homebuyers among the 50 metros analyzed, where nearly half (48%) of its new mortgages went to people under 35.

Pittsburgh is followed by:

  • Cincinnati, Ohio (46.5%)
  • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (46.3%)
  • Detroit, Michigan (46.1%)
  • Warren, Michigan (46.0%)
  • Minneapolis, Minnesota (45.7%)
  • Cleveland, Ohio (44.1%)
  • Denver, Colorado (43.7%)
  • Milwaukee, Wisconsin (43.7%)
  • St. Louis, Missouri (43.3%)

10 Worst Locations for Gen Z Homebuyers

West Palm Beach, Florida, was the least popular city for young homebuyers among the 50 metros analyzed, where only 27.8% of its new mortgages went to people under 35.

West Palm Beach is followed by:

  • Fort Lauderdale, Florida (28.8%)
  • Anaheim, California (31.7%)
  • Orlando, Florida (32.0%)
  • Las Vegas, Nevada (32.9%)
  • Miami, Florida (32.9%)
  • Tampa, Florida (33.3%)
  • Los Angeles, California (33.6%)
  • Oakland, California (34.1%)
  • Sacramento, California (34.4%)

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/10-best-and-worst-states-gen-z-buy-home

Just Getting Started

This year, we’ve taken more time off than ever before.

All for a great reason – to see Natalie performing around the world in an experience of a lifetime for her.

It was a sampling of what retirement could be. Did I enjoy being out of the game? No – and I hated that part.

I want to compete every day, and it’s what I love about selling homes. It is very competitive, and that includes the competition between me and me. Can I do better? Can I help more people?

This blog helps to keep me going. I want to deliver the most pertinent bubbleinfo every day.

Stick around – I’m just getting started!

P.S. Tonight the blog is upgrading to its own dedicated server. Let me know if you feel anything different!

Pin It on Pinterest