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Mid-Century Remodel

After an extensive search for an Eichler that would feel like their own, Michelle Wahlen and Thierry Zamora found their perfect midcentury home in Marin County, CA. Designed by Anshen & Allen – best known as the initial designers of Eichler homes – the home features a stunning atrium, which was a strong point in the decision making process to purchase.

Through renovation and design, Michelle and Thierry appropriated the home to their own accord while remaining true to its original midcentury character.

Link to Full Article

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, July

The July reading includes some data from May and June, so we’re getting through the negative covid impact, and swinging into the positive! The next 2-3 readings should be at least this high:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
June
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
July
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%

Will the September & October indices hit 2.0%? Likely!

Del Mar Sale

Yesterday we closed escrow on our sale of 12911 Biscayne Cove in Del Mar!

I suggested our initial list price of $1,495,000, based on these recent sales:

The Barbados sale was off-market so we don’t know if that was high or low, so I didn’t use as a price gauge.

Though a list price in the low-to-mid $1,400,000s might have been more appropriate, there weren’t any other houses for sale nearby that were priced lower so I’m going to push it and see what happens over the first few days. We had a parade of buyers – 32 showings in the first 17 days on the market – yet no offers.

Originally I thought we’d see a steady flow of retirees flocking to this one-story home, but 31 of the 32 showings were to young families. Del Mar schools are the best, and while the 1,518sf was mentioned in the listing, I think the lack of other homes in this price range caused these buyers to check it out just to see if they could find a way to fit in a smaller home.

After 11 days on market, the 2,542sf Boquita house listed on the range $1,300,000 – $1,399,000, which crushed my chances of getting more. We lowered our price to $1,388,000 a few days later to stay in the game, and after a couple of weeks, we found a single guy to buy it for $1,344,000.

I found great joy in finding out that the seller had read bubbleinfo in the beginning, and it was one of the reasons why he left Michigan before the crash.  Now he and his lovely bride are off to Boise, Idaho to be near the grandkids!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/12911-Biscayne-Cv-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16765774_zpid/

Active Adult Buyers Are Back

My friend Ken Perlman at JBREC consults with new-home builders primarily, but these thoughts apply to the resale market too – notably, the 65+ generation growing by 17 million people in the next ten years!

With the national housing market surging, active adults have decided it is time to participate again. As discretionary buyers, they’ve had time to “restart” their purchasing process, and many of our developer and builder clients report that with proper health precautions in place, they’ve been willing to do so. In many age-qualified communities across the nation, home sales were particularly strong in August and September.

The pandemic hasn’t changed the size of the active adult population or its motivations. The active adult buyers are a key component of housing demand, as the 65+ population will grow by a net 17 million people over the next ten years. We know one of the highest priorities for this buyer set is being close to children and grandchildren. This means that as the Great American Move takes place in hot markets from Phoenix to Southern California’s Inland Empire to Sarasota, Florida, active adult buyers are following.

They are wealthy with large homes they can sell. Our active adult developer and builder clients told us one of the biggest fears their buyers had heading into the pandemic was the negative impact on their stock portfolios and on the homes they had to sell. Those fears have largely subsided with a rising stock market where the S&P 500 is up 10% year over year (YOY) and existing home Google searches up 30% YOY, as well as the Burns Home Value Index (BHVI) up 5.5% YOY.

4 Keys to Success

Active adult buyers are ready to buy now, so make sure you have inventory. Builders we spoke with in the active adult space told us standing inventory numbers are low, and some are tripling the number of standing inventory homes they produce to satisfy demand. Some are also simplifying what they offer in their homes, a process that streamlines housing production and keeps new home prices more attainable. Despite their wealth, these buyers are still prudent about how they spend their money.

Design elements that appeal to primary buyers also appeal to active adults. Per JBREC’s Consumer Products and Insights survey, more than 70% of new home shoppers between the ages of 55 and 69 included a member who worked at least part time. Work-from-home spaces were always critical to this buyer and are even more so today. Indoor/outdoor spaces are top of mind for active adult buyers, particularly those who live in warmer climates. Opportunities to live in the “healthy” outside while still maintaining cover is a big reason why open corner sliders and outdoor living rooms are immensely popular among this buyer set.

A strong virtual presence is essential. Active adult buyers are not afraid to use technology to search for a home; they rely on it. Active adult developers and builders around the country reinforce that their buyers are doing extensive research online before ever coming to the sales office, and we’ve heard reports of conversion rates among prospects in this space tripling post-pandemic. With travel more restricted and the market expanding rapidly, some active adult buyers are tying up their lots and homes efficiently via builder websites before ever visiting the neighborhood. Empire Communities in Atlanta told us, “We leveraged our virtual platforms, created new virtual platforms, optimized our online campaigns and online sales consultant initiatives, coached the sales teams to get out of their comfort zones, and shifted into a ‘we got this’ attitude.”

Active adult buyers still want to visit sales offices before they buy. While technology is helping buyers become educated, developers were universal in their opinion that this buyer cohort still want to make its final purchase in person. This means that an on-site sales office, decorated models, and well-organized system for coordinating appointments are still critical for selling homes to this buyer profile. Our clients across the country told us that with proper safety precautions in place, active adult buyers prefer visiting sales offices or models in person.

While the first-time and move-up buyers have clearly been the headlines of the housing market resurgence, the active adult buyer is starting to reemerge. We are assessing active adult housing across the country and watching product trends and buyer preferences. Let us know how we can be a resource for you. kperlman@realestateconsulting.com

Who Is Selling?

Who is selling? The chart below tracks when the home was purchased by the sellers. Today’s numbers are from those sales closed between Aug 21-31 of this year:

Year Purchased
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
12/4/17
2/16/20
9/28/20
0 – 2003
57%
48%
32%
47%
34%
29%
2004 – 2008
19%
15%
12%
15%
18%
15%
2009 – 2011
6%
7%
14%
10%
4%
9%
2012 – 2020
13%
25%
34%
24%
35%
44%
New Home
4%
4%
7%
4%
9%
3%

So much for my theory about boomers leaving town! Today’s percentage of long-time owners sellers was the lowest yet…..but we know that over 50% of boomers delayed selling their home due to covid.

The chart at the top (click to enlarge) shows the California migration, and it’s a money thing.

People who leave the state find it too expensive here, and can do better elsewhere – and are willing to go for it! Younger people are probably more inclined to leave, at least at first. Grandparents to follow!

Of course, even the recent purchasers have no problem selling for a decent-to-huge gain, and more of them have been taking their profits – and hopefully buying another home, either here or elsewhere. Though the 2012-2020 group is the only one that grows just because we’re adding years over time.

More stats:

Other
12/13/16
4/3/17
6/30/17
12/4/17
2/16/20
9/28/20
# of Sales
144
112
99
99
116
130
Avg. $$/sf
$550/sf
$529/sf
$481/sf
$532/sf
$523/sf
$612/sf
Median SP
$1.291M
$1.274M
$1.11M
$1.25M
$1.18M
$1.46M
Avg DOM
42
54
43
52
47
39
0-10 DOM
35%
28%
45%
42%
28%
45%
Lost $$
7
7
0
1
2
0
DOM = 0
7
2
4
3
4
2

There were four flippers in today’s group, same as last time.

Inventory Watch

Last week, I said this:

The number of active listings should keep dropping as the year winds down – we have probably seen the 2020 market peak for number of active listings.  But we could see the pendings count stay in this range for a few more weeks.

Whoops, the number of active listings have gone up! The MLS ‘upgrade’ last weekend was a disaster, but they seem to be getting a hold of it – so I think my counts are right.

Is the Frenzy of 2021 starting to build? Additional inventory can cause the sales momentum to speed up.

Admittedly, I’m looking for it.

But everywhere I go, boomers are talking about selling their house and leaving town.  More for-sale signs are popping up.  A few new listings had 20-30 showings over the weekend – and others had none.  Contractors are booked solid for weeks. Good dishwashers are back-ordered for 4-6 months.

Back in April, I thought October should be flat – and it starts on Thursday!  October inventory and sales should be a great indicator of what we can expect in 2021!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Two technicalities in the Inventory Watch.

Apparently, the hotel project at Dog Beach must have failed, and the listing is active again – see above.  I’m going to exclude it because it skews the numbers, especially the days on market.

There is a funny quirk in the MLS ‘upgrade’ that hopefully will be worked out.  The total-pendings count is fine, but when you search pendings by price range, about a quarter of them have the list price omitted.  The MLS techs should be working on it?  Or it will get resolved as the listings are marked sold.

(more…)

Bressi-Close

Speaking of the old Carlsbad Raceway, our new listing is about a block away!

Buy a practically new (built in 2019) townhome in a gated community that has already been upgraded nicely with custom tile work, light-colored wood grain LVP, and solar! This is the most popular floor plan in Verano, with one master suite at ground level and two more upstairs with walk-in closets! Two-car garage, central A/C, massive great room with three-door sliders that open wide, plus view of the hills. This premium location has a large greenbelt in front and snazzy pool nearby – wow! Centrally-located just down the street from Bressi Ranch and only seven miles to the beach. Sleek, stylish, and move-in ready – an incredible value for one-year-old home in coastal north county today!

2229 Solara Lane

3 br/3.5 ba, 1,726sf

LP = $589,000

https://www.compass.com/listing/2229-solara-lane-vista-ca-92081/613898192046066969/

Del Mar Heights Update

For those of us who were pushing hard to find the bottom of the retail range in Del Mar’s 92014 zip code, this was the listing that toppled over everyone’s dominoes.

This house is six doors down from the one I sold earlier this year for $2,157,000, so the value-range pricing of $1,300,000 – $1,399,000 seemed extremely aggressive at the time. Heck, when they listed, I had a 1,518sf active listing over the crest of the hill with freeway noise priced at $1,495,000!

I expected the house to be a disaster, but it looked like the typical old funky Del Mar Heights professor home that were sprinkled throughout the area.  When this was built in 1977, it was probably a fine example of a custom design of the era.

It did close for $1,475,000:

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