Positives Or Negatives?

Ok, I’m breathing again now that 150+ people came to my first open house on Moorhen Place.

The market/buyers have seemed cautious and conservative so far in 2025, and it’s incredible how they insist on looking for any reason NOT to buy. The only problem is that the perfect homes start at $10 million, so just about everyone is going to have to live with something. P.S. Buyers need to come to grips with the fact that the entry level for decent homes in Carlsbad is now $2,000,000.

New-Listing Update

Our new listing hasn’t been on the open market for 24 hours yet and there have already been almost a thousand views with more than 11% of them marked as saved. My Youtube video has had 167 views in the first 48 hours too – wow!

It went live on the MLS at 10am yesterday, and the first showing was at noon! The buyers seemed to love it, and their agent tried to pressure me into selling it to them on the spot for full price ($2,000,000).

But I’m only going to sell it to the first buyers if the price is really attractive.

I told her it would take $2,500,000 to buy it.

She scoffed, but they made a written offer last night that was a little over the list price.

Do we sell it before the open-house extravaganza? We’ll see!

Get Good Help!

Michael McDonald

Last year, I finally bought a brand-new car.

New cars come with the Sirius-radio trial for a few months, and I eventually saved a few favorite stations – one of which was old Channel 311, the Yacht Rock channel.

I’d didn’t expect that I would know virtually all of the songs, and it dawned on me that I must be quite a wuss for them to be so familiar! Then I watched the Yacht Rock documentary, which was fantastic and laid out the history of Yacht Rock in no uncertain terms. I agreed with all of them!

But there needs to be one caveat.

To be in the upper tier of Yacht Rock, you must have some connection to Michael McDonald.

Artists who had Michael write, sing, or produce their songs:

Dooblie Brothers, Steely Dan, Kenny Loggins. Christopher Cross, James Ingram, David Cassidy, Van Halen, Ray Charles, Barbra Streisand, Patti LaBelle, Twinkie Clark, Lee Ritenour, The Winans, Aretha Franklin, Toto, Grizzly Bear, Stephen Bishop, Jack Jones, Carly Simon, Bonnie Raitt, Joni Mitchell, Toad the Wet Sprocket, and Thundercat.

Michael has won five Grammy awards, including Song of the Year (with Kenny Loggins) in 1980 for the yacht rock anthem, What a Fool Believes by the Doobie Brothers. Michael wrote his auto-biography and gave it the same name. I’ve read it, and his story is exactly what you’d expect to happen to a talented guy who came to L.A. in the late-1960s looking for a lucky break.

We’ve heard that song enough though.

Another song that gets overplayed on the Yacht Rock channel is the Kenny Loggins song, Heart to Heart, which is also co-written by Michael. Sirius plays the version from Kenny’s solo album, where he sings all the leads but really strains to sing Michael’s parts. This is the better version:

Today is Michael 73rd birthday too – Happy Birthday Michael!

Then there is Michael’s song stepped all over by Kenny:

Michael McDonald together for a live multi-cam shoot of the hit song, recorded for a fundraiser for the 36th Unity Telethon, supporting low income families and seniors all year long in the Santa Barbara area.

The same people got back together two months ago, and Kenny stayed in his shoes:

SW Carlsbad One-Story Pool Party

Check out our new listing in SW Carlsbad!

6814 Moorhen Pl., Carlsbad, CA 92011

3 br + den/2.5 ba, 2,409sf

YB: 2001

Lot size = 34,412sf (0.79-acre)

LP = $2,000,000

Are you looking for a newer & updated one-story 3br + den/2.5 ba, 2,409sf house on a huge 3/4-acre lot at the end of the cul-de-sac? Here you go! Like-new kitchen, 3-car, plus tons of natural light! There is enough room for a pickleball court next to the fabulous pool/spa that looks like the Blue Lagoon – which also has a separate swim lane for laps too! Just a quick 1/4-mile walk to coffee and books at Dove Library + Cinepolis, shops and restaurants. When looking at the map, don’t let your eyes deceive you – if you did, you’d think that the earth was flat! There is virtually no road noise here, due to the property being well below and at least 100 yards west of ECR (see last photo in gallery). Come check it out for yourself!

Open house 11-2 on Saturday & Sunday February 15 & 16.

https://www.compass.com/listing/6814-moorhen-place-carlsbad-ca-92011/1775525568680282281/

Trendy Tuesday – Valentine Ideas

Spending Valentine’s Day in San Diego by Natalie

In honor of Valentine’s Day this Friday, restaurants will be offering special holiday menus and there are plenty of events happening across the county to make the occasion even more memorable!

Restaurants:

VAGA Restaurant & Bar at Alila Marea Beach Resort – Enjoy oceanfront views and a superb dinner at this picturesque restaurant. See here for their Valentine’s Day menu.

Glass Box, Carmel Valley – Located in Skydeck, this spot offers a futuristic and glass-encased setting, plus they’re offering a special Valentine’s Day Menu!

Lilian’s, Rancho Santa Fe – Celebrate on Friday with their 4 course dinner menu or see here for their Galentine’s Day Brunch on Feb 15th!

Wolf in the Woods, Mission Hills – Voted one of the top 100 date night spots in the US, this is a great spot to try for Valentine’s Day! Check their Instagram for updates regarding specials this weekend.

Animae, Downtown – One of the best restaurants in San Diego! See here for their upcoming specials.

Check out this article for more options!

Events & Activities:

Movie at the Pier, Oceanside – On Friday Wall-E will be screened at the Junior Seau Pier Amphitheater near the Oceanside pier. See here for more info!

Hot Air Balloon Ride, Del Mar – Compass Balloons offers private and shared hot air balloon rides out of Del Mar for beautiful coastline views, or head up their Temecula location to fly over the vineyards! Visit their website here.

Paint and Sip, Downtown – Visit Cafe Alma for a fun paint and sip evening. Their Valentine’s Day session is sold out, but they have future ones coming up too! Check it out.

Gondola Rides, San Diego Bay – Take a private ride on a Venetian-style gondola through the bay with chocolates and beverages! Book here.

Spa Day – Who doesn’t love a day at the spa?! San Diego is home to some of the best spas, so pamper yourself and your loved one by spending a day at any of them! La Costa Resort & Spa, The Lodge at Torrey Pines, and Hotel del Coronado are some of my favorites!

Plan a Trip – With Monday being a holiday, this weekend is the perfect time for a romantic getaway. Here are some towns that are perfect for a weekend getaway.

More Inventory Tracking

Bill provides a ton of relevant data and it helps show how the real estate trends reflect the human condition – the same things are happening everywhere:

I’ve been thinking that there will be 15% to 20% more inventory this year, but so far the flow has been subdued between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

NSDCC January Listings:

2024: 242

2025: 251

But Bill has the San Diego YoY inventory change at +12.3%.

The Active Inventory shows the real trend because it reflects if homes are selling or not.

The higher-end is where it’s more stagnant, and with today’s NSDCC median list price being $4,399,000, the Active Inventory will be stacking up quickly.

Bill already has the current SD Active Inventory at +28.8% YoY!

Is the demand picking up the slack? Will more homes for sale mean more sales, like our head cheerleader Lawrence Yun suggests?  Hmmm no, at least not yet:

https://open.substack.com/pub/calculatedrisk/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-586

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Zillow shows that the fever this year isn’t quite what it has been.

It’s a simplistic graph, but it shows we’re just barely above a neutral market:

Just when mortgage rates have improved slightly and we’re getting into the prime season, it seems like every new listing is $2,000,000+ and very few are really prime properties – which will be the main reason we could get off to a sluggish start. Buyers want the good stuff!

Inventory Watch – It’s Go Time!

Since October, I’ve been warning about a surge of inventory coming in 2025.

It won’t be that obvious to the casual observers, and many won’t notice at all. Even the early statistics and/or the actual transacting may mask it somewhat because, who knows? There might be enough demand to pick it all up!

Instead of lathering on about the theory, let’s review an actual real-life example from this weekend.

There was a Compass Private Exclusive that caught the interest of my buyers. On Wednesday we made arrangements to meet there on Sunday for a tour.

By the time we got to Sunday, THREE other new listings hit the open market nearby, and then the Private Exclusive went onto the MLS too (this week I’ll give an 2025 update on the Compass PEs).

We toured all four.

Here’s what we learned:

The environment changed dramatically on August 17th, and more buyers are motivated to attend open houses rather than hire a buyer-agent. But three of the four didn’t do open house, and the one that did sent an assistant who wasn’t try to sell it – they were just there wasting an afternoon at a stranger’s house.

Only two of the four were staged. In a competitive environment, the two that weren’t staged got eliminated quickly. Not only was it harder to imagine what could be done with those, but it also sends the sub-conscious message that the seller and listing agent aren’t that motivated to sell.

If the seller and listing agent don’t take a vested interest in selling the house, then they are relying on the buyer-agent to get the job done. Don’t be surprised if the offers, if any, come in low!

How experienced and competent are those buyer-agents at talking the $1,000/sf talk?

There were 50 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad in the past week, and 34 new pendings so somebody is getting lucky. But at what price? The climb in inventory may pause occasionally, but it should be trending steadily higher in the coming weeks. Unless sellers and listing agents are totally prepared for surprises like three new listings nearby and two inches of rain!

Oh, and there will be doomer talk too:

Get Good Help!

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