Trump is urging Powell to lower rates, and the Fed chief is going to cave.
Powell will lower the rates.
I guarantee it.
He’s going to lower his Fed rate by 1/4%, and say, “There you go!”
This is 2025, and we’re in Flat City. There is no help coming.
Homes for sale are priced at yesterday’s comps, plus a little mustard. The few that are attractively priced get lost in the shuffle because the buyers assume EVERY house is over-priced. Yet sellers keep waiting for that nuclear family with 2.2 kids to come along and pay all the money.
They aren’t coming, and there’s no relief in sight.
Unfortunately, these conditions will force most to the sidelines.
Casual buyers will wait for the mythical moment in the future when all the stars will align (that’s not coming either), and sellers will want to wait until “the market gets better” – which ain’t happening anytime soon. But inaction is an easier choice for both of them to digest.
If you want to move this year, then you need to create your own solutions.
Whether you are a buyer or seller (or both), there is one solid compromise that helps both sides:
The mortgage-rate buydown.
Sellers should offer to buy down the rate, rather than lower their price.
Neither the buyer nor the seller should believe that lowering the price will make much difference. In the second line above, the $100,000 price reduction only gave the buyer a $200 per month discount. Big whoop.
Buyers need to make a formal offer to the seller that says,
“If you can save me $500 per month, I’ll buy your house”, or
“If you can save me $1,000 per month, I’ll buy your house”.
If the seller is already offering to buydown the rate, then they already expect to pay out – it’s just a matter of how much.
If they only have to pay $45,000 to make the deal on a $2M sale, then they should strongly consider it. It’s also worth considering the $145,000 discount if needed, unless they think there might be two in the bush.
But this is the critical part:
The seller must offer the buydown up front just to send notice to the buyers that they will consider it. The buyers must make a written offer to see what they might actually get.
Homeowners put a lot of faith into their zestimate.
They’ve been receiving their monthly updates for years and years now, and it’s like an old friend.
It’s been so long that they forgot the doubt and mistrust of the zestimates in the beginning, and now figure their old friend wouldn’t let them down. Especially when they check active listings and the zestimates are always within a couple of bucks of the list price.
It doesn’t occur to them that Zillow might be lying to them, and adjusting zestimates to be near the list price once a home goes on the market. Nooooo, instead they want to think that the zestimates must be getting more accurate!
Now the doubt and mistrust shifts to the agent when they deliver the real value. If the broker’s opinion of value is less than their zestimate, it’s the realtor who is wrong….obviously!
In a stable-to-declining market, this is real estate poison, and a main reason why listings will sit forever without selling. The homeowners are convinced that their price is right, mostly because their old friend said so.
The number of actives and pendings were already fighting to stay in line with last year, but look at the changes that began in April.
Has the selling season ended prematurely, and it will feel like the off-season for the rest of the year? Looks like it.
I’ve already had people wonder out loud if they should wait until next year. It won’t be better next year.
The market sluggishness will stay like this until there is a meaningful change in rates and/or prices, which could take years. Home sellers will be faced with a choice. Take less now, or take less later.
Check out this fine-looking one-story with incredible succulent backyard!
5119 Berryessa Street, Shadowridge
3 br + den / 2 ba, 2,270sf
10,459sf lot
HOA = $92/mo.
LP = $1,299,900
Are you searching for a roomy one-story with 3-car garage on a large private lot? This is it! Our recent tune-up makes it move-in ready too. New carpet & paint, hardwoods, chef’s kitchen, high ceilings, remodeled bathrooms, and a calm ocean breeze every afternoon – wow! The 10,459sf lot is very low maintenance and the backyard is a botanical garden full of specialty succulents – it’s a must see!
Open house 11am – 1pm Sat & Sun April 26th and 27th
The first Compass goal was to have 20% market share in 20 major metro markets, and now we’re striving to have 30% market share in 30 markets.
Locally, we’re getting close.
The market has been tough on everyone, mostly because buyers aren’t going for it like they were during the covid frenzy. Agents need to be really good now, and that’s why the top brokerages should be picking up additional market share in the coming months.
Compass spent $100,000,000+ on our platform to support agents, and it’s really good. It also makes for a fantastic recruiting tool, and it’s going to be hard for the smaller brokerages to keep up.
But the business of selling homes is an individual sport – and you still need to hire the right agent. Check their track record on Zillow to see how successful they have been recently at getting people to the finish line!
The six of us at the SD Botanical Garden in Encinitas over Christmas
Daughter Natalie submits today’s Trendy Tuesday, and she’s into it! She has always been the adventurer in the family who goes camping, snowboarding, and surfing regularly with her boyfriend Ryan. Honestly, we’re jealous! We will be floating the Grand Canyon later this year!
Happy Earth Day!
Here are some local ways to celebrate our Mother Earth this week, and beyond!
This Saturday is the 23rd annual event, where volunteers are invited to grab buckets and work gloves and make a difference at 70+ locations throughout the county. See here for more details.
Visit One of Our Local Nature Attractions
Marvel in the beauty of our local environment by visiting one of our many nature attractions:
The NSDCC sales and pricing looks a lot like it did last year, which is the definition of Flat City. It gives us some assurance that the market is steady, at least in the rear-view mirror.
But let’s break it down into the individual areas to see if there are any concerns.
In green (above) are the two most homogeneous neighborhoods full of typical tract houses. Their sales and pricing statistics are virtually identical year-over-year, and their median and average $/sf are very close too which means there aren’t many if any outliers. Two areas where sellers would find it easier to get their price right, and where buyers can feel comfortable justifying the pricing.
La Jolla is phenomenal. For a higher-end area to have such solid stats all the way across is very impressive and a place where you can buy with confidence. Rancho Santa Fe is right in there with them but the sales counts are low.
There aren’t any areas that have any big concerns, mostly because the sales counts look healthy and are similar YoY (sales are a sign of what’s ahead for pricing).
If there was a big concern, it’s the uncertainty ahead, and the likelihood that the first quarter of 2025 will end up being the best quarter of the year.
There is a lot of hubbub about the ‘market’ being sluggish and I’ve documented how the inventory of unsold homes keeps rising. Especially on the higher-end.
But let’s focus on what has been working, shall we?
Above is the list of our listings that have closed escrow this year.
The similarities:
All were staged and looked neutral, bright, and cheery.
Six out of seven sold for MORE than their list price.
All of them sold within five days on the open market.
You can certainly find a better-looking agent and almost all of them are younger than me now. But I think my 2025 record will stand up with any other realtor around here who delivers personalized one-on-one service and isn’t the big team that has assistants pushing buttons. If you are comparing agents, check their sales history on Zillow. Click here for mine, and check the reviews too.
The market is tough, and it doesn’t take much to miss.
I have three listings that have been active for more than five days. Two decided to do their own staging, and the third is such a specialty product (4,984sf two-story home on a private golf course) that I just need a member to get the bug about living directly on the fairway!
The market hysteria will probably kick up again, so to be safe, let’s sell your home before the middle of June. After July, both buyers and sellers will be packing it up and waiting until 2026!
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
