Debt Ceiling Deal

It’s not passed yet but this is earlier than I expected so hopefully they can get it done in time.

Mortgage rates are like gasoline prices though – quick to go up, and sloowww to come down.

If they can pass this by Wednesday/Thursday and rates improve a little by the weekend, we might get a surge of buyer interest over the next couple of weeks. Home buyers who want to get into their new house before school starts need to secure something soon because many if not most sellers need a 30-60 day rentback after close – which after you count a 30-day escrow, it means that many buyers are already scheduling to pick up their keys at the end of summer.

I think there are waves or surges in the market, and not in a cosmic way. It’s just natural that some weeks are better than others for pursuing a new home, and people work in their searches around holidays and other family/work obigations. It would make sense that the same market forces are affecting the entire buyer pool in a similar direction.

Based on my previous guess below from March, we might be at the tail end of the selling season, but the demand has been strong enough that we should have some gas left in the tank. The next couple of weeks will probably be the high point for the rest of the year though.


Best Places to Retire 2023

You have to wonder about a list that that has no California metro areas in their Top 100, but includes New York City at #14 and Flint, Michigan at #64. 

To identify the best places to retire, U.S. News analyzed data for the 150 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. to assess how well they meet Americans’ retirement needs and expectations. Top criteria include the happiness of local residents, housing affordability, tax rates and health care quality.


San Diego finally did make this list at #93, just ahead of Cleveland and Tulsa:


The Brady Bunch House

Once in a lifetime opportunity to own one of the most iconic single family residences in the world.

Meticulously rebuilt and designed to replicate the set of the home from the beloved 1970s sitcom The Brady Bunch. Reportedly it is the 2nd most photographed home in the USA after the White House. Own a piece of pop culture history and pay homage to American sitcom television. From the infamous staircase that anchors the home, to the bright orange formica kitchen counters, to the blue bunk beds and pink twin beds, and let’s not forget about the groovy attic. The possibilities are endless for you to enjoy this spacious 5,000+ square foot home on a sprawling 12,000 SF lot with citrus trees lining the yard. The quaint tree lined street backs up to the Los Angeles River in a prime Studio City location. The architectural mid-century home has soaring ceilings, big windows and sliding glass doors which fill the space with natural light. Curated furnishings and accessories are included in the sale and will take you back in time to a unique era. This is a collector’s dream. What would you expect from an architect’s home? Fireplaces and some appliances/Fixtures are decorative only.  Listed with Compass for $5,500,000.


New Normal for NSDCC Listings

Yesterday we saw how the number of listings has been dropping in San Diego County. Here’s a look at our favorite market – detached-homes between La Jolla-to-Carlsbad:

*The 64% is the percentage of 1Q23 listings that have closed escrow – more will be added, but the percentage will probably stay in 60s.

It looks like we’re going back to the good old days when there were big spreads between the median LP and median SP, and about a third of the listings not selling – in spite of having half as many listings!

(this year’s listings count should get up to around 1,100, but still scary low)

Tiny-House Kits

Hat tip to ‘just some guy’ for sending in this ADU update – an excerpt:

For Millstone, making her ADU feel like part of the community was key. Small touches, such as tiling, hark back to the area’s Latino roots, while native California plants and materials are showcased. Although the ADU occupies a relatively small footprint of 650 square feet, high ceilings and carved terra cotta breeze blocks give it a roomy look and allow for airflow. She shares the space with her two little dogs, Stevie Nicks and Lindsey Buckingham.

Millstone hasn’t yet rented out the main house on her property. But she estimates that when she does put it on the market for full rental value she can easily pull in around $5,000 per month.

The ADU is separated from the main house by a small driveway and some bushes, making it feel like a separate residence. “It’s ideal,” Millstone said.

Link to Full Article

The article says it takes $300,000 to build an ADU, and I haven’t heard of any being built around here for under $100,000. But now you can buy an ADU kit for less than $40,000:


Tina Turner, RIP

It’s probably hard to believe that this old desert rat is a fan of Broadway musicals, but since Kayla moved to NYC we have frequented a number of plays when we visit.

One of the best was Tina, the Tina Turner Story, which is coming to the San Diego Civic Center at the end of July this year. The music is fantastic and the appreciation for Tina’s life is worth seeing if you get a chance.

Here she is in 1993:

Fewer Sales To Continue

There will be more headlines about home sales being down – way down – and people might wonder if it means anything. Not really – it’s because there are fewer homes for sale.

It looks like it will continue too.

Last year in San Diego County there were 2,686 detached-home listings in May, and this month we’ve only had 1,114 with a week to go. In May, 2019 there were 3,559 listings!

Can sellers price it in?

Mortgage rates hit 7% again yesterday (with no points), and it’s doubtful that they will come down much once the debt crisis is solved. It’s going to be easy for potential home buyers to pack it in earlier than usual this year and the summer market is likely to be squishy – at best.

Stay tuned!

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