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Red Hot December

I inputted my new listing around 10:00am this morning…..and I was showing it by 1:15.

We had FIVE showings today, and have SEVEN scheduled for tomorrow. And it’s December!

https://www.compass.com/listing/7168-sitio-corazon-carlsbad-ca-92009/664477436107162137/

Plus I showed properties to three other buyers today!

P. S. My hand-written calendar is easier when driving.

 

La Costa Oaks Gem

Attention multi-gen buyers! Our new listing in La Costa Oaks has the master suite on the first level plus the perfect granny flat too! The flex space upstairs includes two regular bedrooms, two full baths, a massive bonus room, plus library/gaming loft too, all situated on an 8,500sf lot which is rare for newer homes in Carlsbad. Full solar (18 panels!) with battery, immaculate garage with workshop, and Encinitas schools too!

7168 Sitio Corazon, Carlsbad

5 br/5 ba, 3,352sf

YB: 2011

HOA fee = $241/month

Mello-Roos = $800/year

LP: $1,379,000

Entrance to granny flat

Granny apt

Hobby room upstairs

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Jimi

Hendrix, with bandmates Mitch Mitchell (drums) and Billy Cox (bass), was already booked to perform a concert in Honolulu at the H.I.C. Arena on August 1, 1970, and the film’s director, Chuck Wein, desperate to feature Hendrix in some capacity, devised a plan to film a free “color/sound vibratory experiment” on the lower slope of the dormant Haleakala volcano.

Word of mouth about a free Jimi Hendrix concert led a few hundred curious Maui locals to the Baldwin cattle ranch in Olinda where a makeshift stage was constructed and the audience was arranged by their astrological signs. The performance captured the Jimi Hendrix Experience at the height of their powers, playing two full sets against the natural backdrop.

“Jimi loved adventure and there was certainly no shortage of it during his time in Hawaii, a place he also loved,” said Janie Hendrix. “The back story of Rainbow Bridge and these recordings paint a picture of Jimi’s uncanny ability to turn the bizarre into something amazing! We’re excited about this release because it gives the world a closer look at Jimi’s genius.”

Link to Article on Documentary Film

Appraising for Alien Tourism

There are 2,000 people per year who pay $200 for a tour, and the plaintiff’s business model was that 91,250 people would pay $400 every year just to access and stand on the property.

Yes, that AREA 51 . . . London Moeder Advisors were retained as experts to conduct market research and financial analysis in a now completed multi-year case involving property within the Nevada Test and Training Range (“NTTR”), known as AREA 51. The case involved the condemnation of 400 acres of land, the “Groom Mine”, which sits within the base and has a view of Area 51 from seven miles away.Firm principal Nathan Moeder was the key expert witness for the United States Department of Justice (US DOJ) serving as its real estate economist and market expert.

The Landowners’ position was that, but for the condemnation, the property could have been sold to a developer for $49.9 million. They argued that the property could be transformed into an attraction featuring “alien tourism”, principally offering visitors views of the distant base facilities.

To determine just compensation for the taking, the Court assembled a Land Commission that consisted of two retired judges and one retired State Supreme Court justice.

Moeder testified that the business plan for alien tourism is highly speculative, indefensible and lacked empirical support . He also explained that there are other issues that affect value that are not reflected in appraisals. He detailed how developers and investors factor risk, such as the inability to monetize the limited market for alien tourism, or the need to achieve approvals and entitlements.

As Moeder testified, establishing demand is critical:

“If the demand is not there permanently or [is not] sustainable and it falls off, the value of that investment plummets. So a developer and investor wants to know that it is sustainable,

“The biggest risk is after people go there and see it, what if there’s a bad Yelp review and people say there’s not much to see there? Is it still guaranteed that 90,000 people are going to come year after year indefinitely, for perpetuity, that creates the justification for the $50 million?”

None of the evidence put forth by the Landowners’ experts would give a buyer the confidence to pay nearly $50 million for the land, he argued.

The Commission agreed with Moeder’s opinions, ruling that the Landowners’ did not meet the burden of proof to demonstrate a sustainable market for alien tourism. The Commission also concluded that the Landowners’ appraisal expert “pulled his demand estimate out of thin air.” Moeder’s testimony was cited extensively throughout the Land Commission’s report to the Court.

As a result, the Commission and the Court determined the highest and best use to be “rural recreation” as of the date of value. Just compensation for the taking was ruled to be $1.1 million (plus $104,000 for the mineral rights).

To read more details on this case, click this link: Litigation Profile

To read the Land Commission’s report, click this link: NTTR Commission Decision

Alicia Keys

While reducing my blog-post drafts down to a manageable few, let’s review some of the best music videos.

We were lucky to see Alicia live and up close in her first big tour, and this video shows what we saw – a regular girl singing her heart out. Say hello to your La Jolla neighbor:

The Trend Towards Larger Homes

Remember when it seemed to make sense that because home prices were escalating, people would be buying smaller homes? Boy, did Covid-19 change that – now the larger homes are driving the market, which suggests that the move-up market has come alive:

(To keep a healthy sample size, let’s combine October and November)

NSDCC Sales and Pricing Over/Under 3,000sf

Oct + Nov
# of Sales Under 3,000sf
Median SP
# of Sales Over 3,000sf
Median SP
2019
265
$1,135,000
204
$1,800,000
2020
362
$1,255,444
320
$2,150,000
% Diff
+37%
+11%
+57%
+19%

Rapidly-increasing prices aren’t slowing down sales….and may be speeding them up!

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Could the increase in larger-home sales be due to more inventory?

No – actually we have had fewer Over-3,000sf homes listed this year than in 2019:

NSDCC Total Listings between Jan-Nov

Jan-Nov
# of Listings Under 3,000sf
# of Listings Over 3,000sf
2019
2,454
2,307
2020
2,273
2,127
% Diff
-7%
-8%

The larger-home sales were already benefiting from multi-gen buyers needing a place for Mom. Add to that demand the move-uppers who may not need a place for Mom yet, but if they sense it might be coming in the near future, then might as well buy bigger now – and maybe get granny to throw in some of her dough!

NSDCC November Sales – Prelim

We are setting all-time records every month now!

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. Cost-per-sf
Median DOM
2014
173
$985,000
$489/sf
34
2015
196
$1,173,750
$518/sf
38
2016
244
$1,235,908
$531/sf
28
2017
220
$1,208,487
$524/sf
27
2018
197
$1,300,000
$566/sf
29
2019
219
$1,345,000
$564/sf
28
2020
288
$1,564,000
$647/sf
12

We’re just getting started too – the final count should be around 320 sales for November, 2020!

Median Sales Price: +16% year-over-year

Average Cost Per SF: +15% year-over-year

Plus, the median days on market is LESS THAN HALF of what’s been normal.

Get Good Help!

A Common Disaster

I have saved hundreds of live-music youtubes over the years and it’s time for a year-end clearout. I try to play music on Wednesday nights but fall asleep half the time, and other times I play them on Tuesday by mistake. So hardy har har, 2020, these are the best of what I have left – starting with the sultry goddess of rock:

Margo Timmins (born January 27, 1961) is the lead vocalist of the Canadian band Cowboy Junkies. She is the sister of Michael Timmins, the band’s lead guitarist, and Peter Timmins, the band’s drummer. Her ethereal vocals, paired with the band’s spare and low-key instrumentation played at a relaxed pace, lend the band its unique atmospheric sound.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowboy_Junkies

A candle burning for everything I’ve ever wanted
A tattoo burned for everything I’ve ever wanted and lost
I had a long list of names that I kept in my back pocket,
but I’ve cut it down to one and your name’s at the top

Won’t you share a common disaster?
Share with me a common disaster
A common disaster

I found myself a friend,
but he’s crooked as a stick in water
So now I’m writing fairy tales
to catch the spirit of revenge
He’s got a plan to steal my little sister,
but I’m not too concerned
’cause I will get him in the end

Won’t you share a common disaster?
Share with me a common disaster
A common disaster

Going to find me someone to share
A common disaster
Run away with me from a life so cramped and dull
Not worry too much about the happily-ever-after
Just keep the Caddy moving
’til we’re well beyond that hill

Won’t you share a common disaster?
Share with me a common disaster
A common disaster

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