There is more talk about the Fed cutting a half-point on Wednesday. If they only drop 1/4%, mortgage rates will probably rise because at least that much is already priced in today.
It won’t mean much for the long-time active listings unless they lower their price.
Of the 465 actives today between La Jolla and Carlsbad, only 73 were listed in September, with a median list price of $2,995,000. For buyers looking under $3 million, it means there are only a couple of dozen homes for sale that have a chance of being a hot buy – in an area of 300,000 people!
New listings that hit the market over the next couple of weeks will be in the right place, at the right time!
What’s the slogan for Realtor.com? The website realtors trust? Yeah, haha…..who are you again? Realtor.com is the source for some wrong statistics picked up by Fox/KUSI news. The August YoY change in inventory for San Diego County is +31% for all property types, and +20% for detached-homes only. I have no idea where they are getting the +80% but it is way wrong. The 9% decrease in the median list price of unsold homes interests virtually no one, but Fox was happy to call it the ‘median sales price’ in their article to add some extra excitement:
SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — It may have gotten a little easier to buy a home in the San Diego market, according to a new report by Realtor.com.
In a housing overview of the nation’s largest metros last month, the median sales price for a home in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad area was $999,000 — a 9% decrease from the same time last year, according to the real estate listings website.
In addition, San Diego was among the top three metros that saw the largest growth in newly listed homes compared to last year. Cincinnati reported a 31% growth while Seattle saw 30% and San Diego had a nearly 23% increase, the report showed.
The inventory of homes for sale increased in all 50 of the nation’s largest metros compared with last year, but San Diego was also among the top three that saw the most growth as of last month.
San Diego saw an 80% increase in inventory while Tampa topped the list at 90% and Orlando reported nearly 77%, the report said.
However, although the median listing price for homes in the region fell compared to last year, the price per square foot has increased by just over one percent.
The housing market is also nowhere near its pre-pandemic condition. The median listing price in August for a home in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad market was almost 41% higher than the same time in 2019, according to Realtor.com.
The other 49 metros on the list had a similar story last month. The median price in Milwaukee, Wis., Philadelphia, Penn. and Cleveland, Ohio saw the biggest increases from 2019’s numbers.
Meanwhile, home sales nationwide remain sluggish. The typical home spent a week longer on the market in August compared to the same time last year, Realtor.com said.
In La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe – where being priced to sit is an art form – the active listings are piling up and are at their highs of the year. On the other hand, Carmel Valley is cruising along with their actives-to-pendings ratio is well under our 2:1 healthy mark.
Holy Man Cave! Check out this very habitable 2 br/2 ba country cottage with massive 3,600sf 12-car garage on an acre in the hills of Vista! Are you dreaming about finding the ultimate extra-large workshop with 12-ft ceilings, dozens of electrical outlets, and plenty of room for every toy imaginable? This is it! Or for those ADU builders, you’ll have a terrific head start on creating the perfect granny flat. Check this out! Zillow rent estimate for house is $2,999 per month.
Borrowing this from Rob’s blog, this is known as Amara’s Law in technology spheres.
It goes:
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
When the zestimates first came out in 2006, their accuracy was really bad – wrong by 10% to 20% – and those of us in the business laughed them off as a joke. The idea of being able to find out the value of a home with one click was inticing though, so Zillow kept throwing millions of dollars into the project.
They found out that putting a value on a home isn’t so easy, and they still state today that their zestimates have a median error rate of 7.49% – which on a $3 million home is +/- $224,700!
From wiki:
While factors contributing to estimates are described elsewhere, Zillow seemingly overemphasizes home square footage as the major metric driving property valuation. This method may not be unique to Zillow, but unduly distorts value expectations. Listings in areas where land is priced at high premiums often reflect an identical Zillow estimate to that of nearby homes with comparable interior square footage, but where the home might be decades older. Condition, age of home, special features, and proximity to nuisances are insufficiently factored into the estimate. Zillow has made some effort to add balance by including an option for owners to provide their own value estimate, but these figures can be similarly unreliable as being opinion instead of quantifiable.
But homeowners have come to adore their zestimate.
Why? Because it’s been around so long, they believe it to be true.
I had a potential seller tell me last week that their zestimate was how much she could sell her house for. Not that it was the approximate value within +/-7% of being correct, and just a starting point. She believed it was going to be her sales price!
It wasn’t a problem during the frenzy because in the 2020-2022 period you could put any price on a home and it would sell. The homeowners were pleasantly surprised at the extra bonus above their zestimate, and didn’t complain.
But it is different now.
I’ve heard it twice in the last week from two different agents that their price is “right in there”, suggesting that they have evidence of their price being right and just get my buyer to pay it. But there they sit, unsold.
Having a zestimate, or having cherry-picked comps to support today’s list price is precarious – it ignores the current market conditions, which are squishy to say the least. The premium, fixed-up, and staged homes are selling briskly, and the others are sitting.
But because the zestimate has been around so long, people believe it must be right. Sellers certainly don’t want to take less! Include 1-2 older sales and sellers and listing agents want to believe the mythical nuclear buyers with 2.2 kids are right around the corner.
San Diego has emerged as the most active real estate market in California.
Our latest report, covering construction trends from 1980 to 2023 — a time frame that spans a millennial’s lifetime — reveals fascinating insights into the key drivers shaping the city we see today.
Ranked tenth in the nation for overall development, America’s Finest City is making waves with impressive expansion in the multifamily and office sectors. This growth cements San Diego as a real estate powerhouse in California, ahead of Los Angeles and San Francisco, and one of the nation’s most dynamic economic centers in the country.
Key highlights from the study:
Single family sector: In the past 44 years, San Diego has issued permits for over 76,000 single family homes, the highest number in California. Although the market remains active, the momentum has dramatically waned from the construction boom of the 1980s. In the first half of the 2020s, the average number of single family home permits issued annually is around 500, representing just 14.7% of the yearly output during the 1980s.
Multifamily growth: San Diego ranks ninth in the nation for apartment construction, having issued nearly 173,000 permits over the past five decades. Although still below the 1980s peak of 6,700 units per year, apartment construction has made a strong comeback, averaging an impressive 4,400 permits annually in the 2020s.
Office space expansion: In the last 44 years, San Diego has added over 77 million square feet of office space, leading California and ranking eighth nationally. Driven by thriving software and biotechnology sectors, this impressive growth solidifies San Diego’s role as a major economic hub.
Addressing the need for extra space: San Diego leads California in the self storage sector, adding over 7.3 million square feet in the past 44 years. Despite this substantial growth, demand remains high, with average rents for San Diego storage units hovering around a steep $183 per month.
Industrial revival: In the past five decades, San Diego has added over 56 million square feet of industrial space, placing sixteenth nationally. The recession caused a sharp slowdown, with annual deliveries falling from over 1.2 million square feet in the previous decade to just 280,000 square feet in the 2010s. However, the 2020s have sparked a remarkable comeback, with more than 1.9 million square feet delivered annually, marking a robust revival in the city’s industrial sector.
Retail sector slowing down: The retail sector has been San Diego’s slowest-growing area, with just 24 million square feet added since the 1980s, placing the city twenty-fourth nationally.
This is Kelly Howard’s new listing at 2312 Oxford Avenue in Cardiff, priced at $2,925,000.
With sweeping ocean views from La Jolla to Orange County, this unique contemporary offers the ultimate coastal lifestyle in coveted Cardiff by the Sea. Ideally situated in the Walking District with 3 en suite bedrooms, 3 ½ baths and West facing decks to enjoy whitewater vistas. The architectural design features tall ceilings, windows and skylights that provide abundant natural lighting and terrific air flow from ocean breezes. Remodeled stylish gourmet kitchen with large island, Wolf oven, induction cooktop & microwave, Thermador refrigerator, and Fisher Paykel double drawer dishwasher. Relax in the privacy of the front courtyard enjoying the tranquil waterfall feature, tropical landscaping, and built-in bbq. The paved alley leads to the 2 car garage. Owned Solar. EV Charger. A/C. Walkable to shops, restaurants, the Coastal Rail Trail, beaches and world class surfing. This property has everything desirable for the perfect Cardiff lifestyle. Live here and have it all.
In 1983, Amy and I were the concert producers at Cal State Fullerton and we had just scored the first beer sponsorship in the country for our shows. It gave us the extra dough to have X play a free show in front of 5,000 students in February, and a free show with Carlsbad’s Rank and File with Alejandro Escovedo in March. Oh yeah, and my girlfriend Donna was the chair of Greek Week too.
In Spring, 1983, Donna was president of her sorority AXO, and I was president of SAE!
