Inventory Watch

The NSDCC inventory has gotten off to a hot start in 2024 – it’s already at the level it was at in July of last year!  As long as the pending keep up….oh wait.

Well, maybe there will be a surge of new pendings on the way? There was a late-summer surge last year, and if it was going to happen, it really should happen earlier this year too.

Pricing of the unsolds probably won’t change much:

The last time mortgage rates were 7% was 22 years ago when local home prices were about one-third of what they are today. As a result, the only semi-relevant comparisons are to last year!


Market is Stable (For Now)

He’s using the Zillow metric for the month-over-month change and the delta for the Case-Shiller Index should be similar – San Diego home prices have been going up close to 2% per month in early 2024.

The increases could hold up too, if rates come down substantially (doubtful) or sales dry up and just the creampuffs are selling (likely).

Where to move? Every city that lost ground when rates went up are reporting small gains this year so it appears that national market conditions are stabilizing. You don’t have to worry too much about moving to town that will be more risky than any other.

Boise isn’t on this list but Susie reported that a new subdivision being built there had put their first home up for sale at $1,599,900 for a 3,250sf one-story house. She and her husband, plus four other couples, wanted to buy it – even though she has a fine newer home (built by the same builder) and a 2.85% mortgage. She said that it has been a buyer’s market recently in Boise, yet it demonstrates that the superior homes still draw a crowd (she lost out on the new home – the builder took an all-cash offer from a local Boise couple).

NSDCC Monthly Sales History

How will the rest of 2024 play out?

Like last year, sales will probably fade away unless more sellers are so motivated that they adjust their price in time. The number of NSDCC active listings has stayed under 400 all year – until this week.

Today there are 421 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad. Last year the number of actives was only above 400 during a three-week stretch in July.

There have been 90 sales closed in May so far.

Unrepresented Buyer Form

While management believes that buyer-agents will adapt and the implementation of the buyer-broker agreement will happen over the next few months, I have my doubts. It’s more likely that buyers will resist paying 2% to 3% to their agent, unless they are convinced that they can Get Good Help.

Without having to commit to paying anything to buyer-agents up front, sellers will choose to pay less or zero once an offer is submitted, and their listing agents will just let it go and just be thankful that they will be getting paid.

Buyer-agents will either have to accept the peanuts the sellers will be paying (0.5% to 1.5%), and/or talk their buyers into paying the rest. Or they will ‘retire’, which sounds groovy to the agents who are 50+.

Left in the rubble will be home buyers who are mastering the matterports, and listing agents who desperately want buyers to come to them direct.

The form above will be the gateway drug to the future.

It will be used as a defense mechanism by listing agents who resist giving any of their commission to the buyers (who are thinking they deserve a bonus for coming direct).

“Yes, come direct to the listing agent so you don’t have to pay a commission”, and once you get here then sign this form and be unrepresented. Everyone saves!

If commissions are less, agents will want to do less. For those agents who already don’t do much, it will be a struggle – but they will find a way!

They aren’t going to step up and justify why every buyer deserves good representation.

Instead, they will do nothing for you. Sign the form above and good luck getting to the finish line!

In a marketplace where the stakes are rising every day, there will be a growing trend of getting less help – and virtually no Good Help available unless buyers want to pay for it themselves.

Best of the Foothills

I couldn’t be more excited about presenting this spectacular home for sale – mostly just to see if everyone likes it as much as we do. It’s not big enough to have wasted space – but I’d rather have 3,003sf of efficient floor plan than 4,000sf full of extra rooms that nobody uses.

3711 Mastodon Ct., Carlsbad

4 br + loft/4.5 ba, 3,003sf

YB: 2015

HOA + MR = $333/mo.

LP = $2,499,000

Have you said to yourself, “I’ll know it when I see it”? This is one of those homes! Downstairs is one big great room with large windows ensuring max natural light! Gorgeous hardwoods, chef’s island with seating, La Cantina doors that open to a large private patio with views, owned solar, plus a separate ADU too! This home has all of the top features people want – last house on the culdesac, only one neighbor, big views (10% view premium when new), privacy, perfect great room, two walk-in closets in primary suite, extra loft upstairs that is a possible 5br, plenty of natural light, and HOA amenities close by! Walking distance to Sage Creek High School too, which is ranked #8 in San Diego County! This home is an oasis of tranquility!

Open 12-3pm on Saturday May 18th and 12-2pm on Sunday May 19th.

David Sanborn

David Sanborn died on Sunday. I didn’t know him or his music much but he was a well-known player over the last few decades. He was planning on touring next year, but succumbed to prostate cancer.

Filmed on December 14, 1998 at Unitel Studios, New York City for broadcast on ABC-TV (U.S.) in the early hours of 1 January 1999 as “After New Year’s Eve”. Released in Japan only in 1999.

David William Sanborn (born July 30, 1945) is an American alto saxophonist. Though #DavidSanborn has worked in many genres, his solo recordings typically blend #jazz with instrumental pop and R&B. He released his first solo album Taking Off in 1975, but has been playing the saxophone since before he was in high school.

One of the most commercially successful American saxophonists to earn prominence since the 1980s, Sanborn is described by critic Scott Yannow as “the most influential saxophonist on pop, R&B, and crossover players of the past 20 years.” He is often identified with radio-friendly #smoothjazz, but he has expressed a disinclination for the genre and his association with it.

Under 7%!

We’re breathing again!

If it feels like we’ve been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today’s inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today is why. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest reliable source of momentum for interest rates when it comes to scheduled data–big enough that the results can come in right in line with forecasts and still have a big impact.

Indeed, today’s results were right in line with forecasts. In month over month terms, core inflation was 0.3% and annual inflation was 3.6%. The Fed wants those numbers at 0.1-0.2 in monthly terms and 2.0% annually in order to be more confident about rate cuts. The annual number wouldn’t need to hit 2.0% as long as monthly numbers suggested we were well on our way.

And again, today’s monthly number only suggested 3.6% (0.3 x 12). Despite being almost twice as brisk as desired, the 0.3% rate of monthly core inflation was apparently a relief for bond traders who quickly began pushing rates lower. Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-specific bonds that correlate substantially with US Treasuries.

Other economic data helped the cause with Retail Sales coming in unchanged for April versus forecasts calling for a 0.4% increase.  Taken together, the as-expected inflation data and weaker retail sales suggest cooler inflation pressure relative to Q1’s data–something all fans of low rates were hoping to see.

Mortgage Lenders were able to drop their average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate to 6.99% from 7.11% yesterday.

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