Selling Season Delayed

This graph shows how we’re making up for lost time, with showings almost double what they were last year.

The closed sales are starting to pop too.

We did have one more business day this year than in 2019, but the NSDCC sales this month are already ahead of recent years, and we have three days to go:

NSDCC July Sales & Pricing – Preliminary

Year
# July Sales
Avg. $$/sf
Median Sales Price
2016
271
$504/sf
$1,110,000
2017
236
$533/sf
$1,253,250
2018
259
$545/sf
$1,300,000
2019
258
$604/sf
$1,300,000
2020
272
$631/sf
$1,410,927

We’re probably going to have 300+ sales this month, and pricing is stronger than ever.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, May

The index in May and June might ‘decelerate’, but the usual seasonal surge in our Case-Shiller Index should be delayed this year.  The index is hitting all-time highs while we are in a recession, officially!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%

From cnbc:

Nationally, prices rose 4.5% annually in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. That is down from the 4.6% gain in April.

Home prices in the 10-city composite increased 3.1% annually, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 20-city composite rose 3.7% year over year, down from 3.9% in April (Detroit was excluded from the composite due to data collection issues).

“More data will obviously be required in order to know whether May’s report represents a reversal of the previous path of accelerating prices or merely a slight deviation from an otherwise intact trend,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Even if prices continue to decelerate, that is quite different from an environment in which prices actually decline.”

Home values increased in all 19 of the cities for which data was available, but the gains accelerated in just three. Prices were accelerating in 12 cities in April and 18 cities in March.

Regionally, price gains in Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa continued to be the strongest in the nation. Phoenix posted a 9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.8% increase and Tampa with a 6% increase. Price gains were smallest in Chicago, New York and San Francisco.

Link to Article

Carlsbad View Fixer

Are you looking for a smaller one-story view home to re-finish?

Do you like being at the top of the hill on a quiet single-loaded culdesac?

The insurance company did the remediation of a water leak, but expect these seniors to manage their own reconstruction project. We’d rather you do it your way! The house has a roof, newer sliders and windows, and shutters  – do you mind doing the rest?

Here is the last sale of this floor plan – it closed at $842,500:

https://www.zillow.com/homes/4615-BUCKINGHAM-LANE,Carlsbad,-CA_rb/16650813_zpid/

We’re asking $750,000!



https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4559-Picadilly-Ct-Carlsbad-CA-92010/16650835_zpid/

Inventory Watch

In the last week, we had 92 new NSDCC listings, and 80 pendings!

We should see a bunch of the pendings close escrow this week, and it looks probable that our July sales this year will exceed those from last July (we only need 46 closings this week and there are 475 pendings).  It’s what happens when we have the typical 6-month selling season squeezed into 3-4 months.

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Inventory Down But Sales Are Strong

San Diego County isn’t included in the graph above but the trend is similar.  The author is happy to point out the negatives, but with inventory still well under what it was last year and pandemic/unrest raging, it’s a miracle that sales are so strong. San Diego County had 3,557 sales last month, which was only down 2.4% from June, 2019, and the median sales price of $600,250 was up 1.7% YoY.

We only have about a month left of prime homebuying before buyers get distracted by school starting and election fervor.  With more inventory and rates in the 2s, the next 30 days should be the best of the year!

Link to OCRegister Article

Are Southern California homeowners back in a selling mood?

Zillow’s weekly report on activity from brokers’ listing services in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties shows owners listed 5,117 existing homes for sale in the week ended July 18. My trusty spreadsheet tells me that’s up 3% vs. the previous week. But this nugget is more noteworthy: It’s the largest addition to the for-sale inventory in 19 weeks.

One unsolved puzzle of the pandemic-riddled economy is why homeowners have refused to be sellers. Were they fearful of home showings? Or skittish about looking for another home to buy? Or perhaps they’re unsure of their own finances?

Even with a recent jump in new listings — the highest since March 7 — the week is down 13% vs. a year earlier. And the four-county inventory of everything a house hunter could buy was 27,170 this week — off 32% in a year. Limited supply may be one reason sales have slumped over the past three months.

Perhaps these newly eager-to-sell owners are reacting to new escrows: 3,696 existing homes were under contract last week, 6% more than the previous seven days.

It’s the 11th positive week for pending purchases out of the last 13 as the housing market rebounds from economic turmoil created by “stay at home” orders designed to slow a pandemic’s spread.

Let’s note that a rapidly uncertain employment picture could be overpowering the record-low mortgage rates that have put some house hunters in a buying mood. California’s U-turn on business reopenings doesn’t help consumer confidence.

And do not forget: Pending sales typically require numerous approvals, most notably from lenders, before the sale closes. June 2020 was the slowest June for closed sales in Southern California in the DQNews database that dates to 1988.

Tamarack Tunnel

For a city that has $100 million-plus in the bank and paid $16 million in 2001 for the Farmers Insurance building that still sits vacant, spending $3 million on this must be seen as pennies?

Questions about safety, costs and the possibility of flooding appear to have stalled plans to dig a pedestrian tunnel beneath Carlsbad Boulevard to connect the Tamarack State Beach parking lot with trails along Agua Hedionda Lagoon.

The Carlsbad City Council agreed last week to proceed to the next stage of work on a proposal to build two access ramps to the beach, but they decided to hold off on the $3 million tunnel portion of the project until they have more information about other options.

Councilwoman Cori Schumacher said she was “uncomfortable” with the tunnel. Over the years, it could be affected by storms and sea-level rise, she said, and she asked whether a road-level pedestrian crossing would require less long-term maintenance.

Other council members also had questions about including the tunnel in the beach access project.

“My main concern is the maintenance,” said Councilman Keith Blackburn, who asked about lighting, public safety, graffiti and trash in the passageway.

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Industry-Disruption Podcast

Here’s a thorough discussion on the the state of realtor disruption – early on, Rob refers to this post:

https://notorious-rob.com/2020/07/two-steps-forward-one-step-back-the-story-of-innovation-in-real-estate/

For every tech platform that sets out to disrupt real estate, there’s a story of slow evolution to working with brokers and agents. And while companies like Zillow, Opendoor, and Offerpad have brought about minor changes to the home buying process, they always end up morphing into our traditional system. Why is it that these so-called disruptors just can’t change the way we do real estate?

In this episode of Industry Relations, Rob and Greg are exploring why would-be disruptors have such a hard time changing real estate. Greg walks us through his five-stages-of-grief analogy around how tech platforms always end up working with brokers and agents, and Rob compares real estate with the auto industry, reflecting on how little buying processes have changed despite advancements in technology.

Rob and Greg go on to introduce the idea that the human connection is what prevents tech disruptors from succeeding in our industry, speculating that agent teams have been the biggest disruptor in real estate in recent years. Listen in for insight on how human knowledge and connection factor into making tech platforms successful and learn why the human need for approval is not disruptable.

What’s Discussed:

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