Aviara One-Story Video Tour

There is a mystery foot in the beginning of the interior tour in this video, and it would be a good time to acknowledge the difference made by my wife Donna.

We knew on Saturday that our client’s purchase offer was accepted, contingent upon this house selling. Between Monday and Thursday night, Donna got the home carpeted, painted, and staged by her favorite vendors – people who regularly drop everything to help her out.  It is a testimony to how well she has nurtured her relationships with them over the years, and when she needs a favor, she can get one!

Aviara One-Story on Culdesac!

7313 Golden Star Lane, Carlsbad

3 br + loft/2.5 ba, 2,593sf

YB: 1996

HOA + MR = $125/mo.

Lot size: 9,529sf

LP = $1,800,000

Immaculate Davidson-built one-story with pool/spa, Owned Solar, 3-car, putting green, and upgraded interior all on a great cul-de-sac near the lagoon walking trail, Aviara golf course, and Park Hyatt Resort! New carpet and paint, high ceilings, plantation shutters throughout, travertine master bath with walk-in closet, plus roomy loft/master retreat with huge walk-in closet too! Being on the west side of the street gives you two great benefits – afternoon sun for your pool area, and your house doesn’t get hit by golf balls like the model-match across the street that just sold for $2,110,000! Other model-match sold comp (1327 Savannah) closed in June for $2,050,000 – wow!

Open house 12-3pm this Saturday and Sunday, September 17th & 18th.

Where To Get A Deal

Are you waiting to buy a home until you can get a sizable discount?

Is it because you know a guy who will give you a deal on any home improvements needed; you’ve got your eye on some new appliances down at the scratch-and-dent outlet; and you were thinking about going through Redfin until you heard they are cancelling their rebates? You want a deal on everything!

Well, here you go!

These late-1990s tract homes in SE Carlsbad and in the Encinitas school district are priced LOW. The pending listing on Corte Clarita should close at $2,300,000+ because it had already gone pending once in mid-August but came back on market – then the agent refreshed the listing once he found a second buyer a couple of weeks later. He told me there was no big discount happening there:

You know that my listing is going to be closing for $2,250,000 nearby, plus this one should be over $2,300,000…..so these actives are 10% to 20% under. It looks like the market is crashing….is there a catch?

Look at their locations:

The first three are on the corner of Calle Acervo, and the fourth is next door, but hey, La Costa Canyon High School is walking distance!  But you have the traffic from high-school drivers too, and you know it will be a madhouse during football games. A deal is a deal though, and you can save hundreds of thousands compared to the remodeled home with larger canyon lot (in purple at bottom).

Or save millions here!  This house is listed for $32,500,000, or go down the street and buy this home that was newly priced today for only $4,900,000!  Both are oceanfront La Jolla!


The difference? This house is 1,167sf on a 2,982sf lot….at least for now. But it’s 85% cheaper! And the more-expensive one RAISED their price from $25,000,000.

My point? The low comps won’t suck down the expectations of future sellers of superior homes – it’s too easy for them to ignore/explain away the low comps, and will only consider pricing theirs like the other superior sales nearby – which there will be some.

Oh, what about a foreclosure? Well, they are starting to spike:

Or are you going to wait until you can rub my sizable nose in it?

Hey, I wish prices were lower, and if they crashed it would only mean more opportunity for buyers, and hopefully more volume, which is what I want.  I’m not trying to coax buyers into paying too much – I’m showing you where the deals are today, if you don’t mind an inferior home or location.

I just hoping that the coming standoff only lasts a couple of years, instead of 5-10.

San Diego Appreciation, Next 12 Months

The final accuracy of any guess on appreciation doesn’t matter. We all know that they are just guesses.

What matters is whether home buyers and sellers will make decisions today, based on what they read.

If I keep showing data and forecasts that show pricing isn’t tanking between La Jolla and Carlsbad, would it cause you to ignore the national doom and do something different, like buy or sell now?

Or will people just take it all in, and then do what they planned to do all along – move next spring? Or deliberately wait until 2024 to ‘wait-and-see’ what happens then, hoping for something different?

Because for the market to be ‘different’ , there would need to be a change here:

Very few quality homes for sale at less-than-retail pricing.

Most everyone who bought a home in the last 13 years has tremendous incentives to NOT sell it.  Will the IRS waive the capital-gains tax to help the real estate market? Will there be a load of new homes built between La Jolla and Carlsbad?  Will higher rates make potential sellers panic?

The answer to those questions is ‘very unlikely’, and things are most likely going to stay the same.

Will ANY data or forecasts have an effect on your moving plans?


The next round of Zillow local guesses started today – here’s the first installment:

Carmel Valley

$15,000,000 Extravaganza

One of my favorite Compass agents went all out today to promote her new $15,000,000 listing – the MLS remarks:

If these walls could talk, they would speak of the fact that this estate was built by a US ambassador to Italy as a summer home for he and his family with many materials imported from Italy. They’d mention the famous houseguests, upscale fundraisers and political gatherings that have taken place here. Upon driving down the private road to the estate’s gate, you’ll be transported to Tuscany from the moment you pull in. Unlike anything else in the upscale town of Rancho Santa Fe, this home’s historic architecture is met with modern features from a head-to-toe renovation over the last two years.

Summer Listings & Sales History

Chris asked how the current environment compares to the 2008 downturn.

In the summer of 2008, there were only 601 NSDCC sales between June 1st and August 31st, in spite of there being 1,348 listings that summer. For the next two years, the number of listings far exceeded the number of sales, and in the 2008-2010 period there were twice as many listings as sales. The 2010 ratio was the worst at 2.3 to 1.

This summer we only had 825 listings, and 504 sales, which is a 1.6 to 1 ratio!

The 2022 sales were 16% lower than the previous record in 2008, but there were 39% fewer listings!

We’ve never had so few listings to consider. Now that the Fed is making it so obvious that they intend to cause a recession, more potential sellers – who tend to casually read the headlines only – will delay their decision to move.  Does anybody HAVE to move in 2023?  Every potential seller will give it a second or third thought if they believe it will cost them several hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The NSDCC inventory next year will be the lowest ever – even Ray Charles can see that coming.

No Fuss

This Encinitas Ranch home was listed for $3,499,000 on March 29th – which was the week rates started going up – and had no price reductions. After 112 days on the open market, they found a buyer who closed in less than 30 days (Sept.12th) for $3,390,000 cash, which was 3% under the list price.

The buyer’s dilemma: If you are like most buyers, you are turned off by at least 90% of the inventory.

There are probably only one or two listings per month that are nice enough to capture your interest – can you stay passionate in your pursuit? Will you review every auto-notification of a new listing with the likelihood of 85% to 95% of them have no chance of being a possibility for you?

For some, and perhaps for many, it will be easier to just pay within 3% of the list price for a stale old listing. Buy the house and get settled. Pour another 5% to 10% into it during the first year to make it your own.

It’s just money.

Estimating NSDCC Monthly Sales

The latest CPI number is out today, and the over-reaction will put more pressure on mortgage rates.  They are probably going to be around the 6% range for the foreseeable future.

Let’s predict the NSDCC monthly sales count for the rest of the year.

Today, we have 411 active listings, and we are back to the environment where we can expect that only 60% of those have a chance of selling.  It’s probably too late for any active listing to close in September, so let’s sprinkle those 247 probable sales over the next three months, or 82 per month.

There are 152 pendings today, and 111 of those went pending before September 1st. They have released all contingencies on most of those, but let’s say only 100 actually close, and 90 are September closings.

Of the other 41 listings that just went pending, only half of them will close, or 20.

There have been 45 sales already close in September, so adding the two is 90 + 45 = 135 sales this month.  Last September we had 269 closings.

NSDCC Monthly Sales, estimated:

September: 135

October: 110

November: 90

December: 90

4Q22 = 290

There will be other new listings over the next three months that will close, and it would be great if every month has 100+ closings – so the above is hopefully the worst-case scenario. But even if we have 300 or more closings in the fourth quarter, look at how that compares to recent NSDCC history:

4Q21 = 636

4Q20 = 977

4Q19 = 681

Even though the month-over-month change in the CPI looks very healthy, the panic will ensue and the real estate markets shut down until February….and probably get off to a slow start then.

People still want to buy, and people still want to sell.  Everyone will just be waiting around until February, hoping something will be different!

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