While we’re talking about the median sales price of detached-homes in San Diego County, let’s review the last ten years. There usually is some dropoff towards the end of the year:
The last frenzy in 2013 saw the median sales price increase 26% between January and September.
The Greatest Frenzy of All-Time started with closings in May, 2020 that had a median sales price of $660,000. It peaked in June/July at $875,000, which is a 33% increase and lasted five more months than in 2013. I’m happy with it, the fun was great while it lasted, and now here we are.
Well, at least until 2022.
There was some hesitancy in the market at the end of 2013, but it took off again in 2014.
Look at the difference though (the graph is interactive).
The increase was only +7% between September, 2013 and June, 2014 before it decelerated again – and the median sales price in November was back to where it was in the previous September!
Sellers should appreciate the big boost we’ve had, and the uncertainty of the future. Don’t attempt to time the market for max return – it’s great where it is today.
Here are other factors they mentioned in the story:
The number of listings in August were 47% fewer than in August, 2019.
The median sales price for condos hit an all-time high, as more buyers get priced out of single-family homes and are forced to consider other alternatives.
The quality of the homes for sale was crap.
The truth? Due to seasonality – which does play a role as summer closes out – it is better to compare to previous Augusts, not July. But the best indicator of market health is the number of sales:
San Diego County Detached-Home Sales, August
Number of August Sales
Median Sales Price
Median Days on Market
There have been fewer listings (-16% YTD) than in 2019, yet there were MORE AUGUST SALES!
Never mind that the +15% YoY increase in the median sales price was an all-time high for August, and ignoring that the median market time was nearly identical to August, 2020 (which will go down as the most hysterical frenzy in the history of real estate), just that the number of sales last month were similar to previous Augusts indicates that the market is fine.
Yet the UT headline writer wants you to think there’s a problem.
The media will help slow things down – hat tip to Doug for sending this in:
The last time Americans were this turned off by the U.S. housing market, borrowing costs were over five times the current rate.
The share of people who think now is a good time to buy a home fell in September to 29%, extending the plunge from March when the proportion was more than twice as high, data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed Friday. It’s also the smallest chunk of respondents since 1982.
Back then, the average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage topped 15%. That compares with today’s 2.86% rate, according to Freddie Mac.
The figures highlight how property price appreciation has rattled prospective buyers and more than offset the bright side of cheap borrowing. Prices have skyrocketed amid low inventory as Americans compete for space, with year-over-years gains on previously-owned, single-family homes exceeding 20% –surpassing the inflation-fueled increases seen in the late 1970s and early 80s, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The median selling price of such properties rose 18.6% in July from a year earlier to $367,000, a slight drop from the previous month. August figures due next week will show if fed-up homebuyers have helped extend the cool-off.
One factor that will slow down the exodus is the increased difficulty of moving out of state – it’s not easy, or cheap, to buy a home outside of California any more. But fewer people leaving will mean less inventory – and could ramp up the frenzy in 2022.
The researchers used open-source data from Zillow or other providers to score the top 100 overvalued or undervalued metro areas in the nation, ranking the cities by a percent premium homebuyers are paying in today’s market based on a history of past pricing.
Here’s how the top 10 rankings landed, according to the research:
Boise, Idaho, where homes are selling at an 80.6% premium.
Austin, Texas, at a 50.7% premium.
Ogden, at a 49.7% premium.
Provo, at a 46.2% premium.
Detroit, at a 45.6% premium.
Spokane, Washington, at a 45.2% premium.
Salt Lake City, Utah, at a 42.4% premium.
Phoenix at a 42.3% premium.
Las Vegas at a 41.9% premium.
Stockton, California, at a 38.5% premium.
The typical value of homes in Boise was over $523,300 as of the end of August, up more than 46% over the past year, according to Zillow.
Environmentalists and union laborers are working on a ballot initiative that could be some form of property or parcel tax to fund needed improvements and infrastructure in how we handle stormwater.
SANDAG and supporters of transit have been talking about the need for a new tax measure to expand the options people have to get around San Diego.
And we broke the news here that the largest labor union of city of San Diego workers has joined with the philanthropists behind the Library Foundation and Parks Foundation to support a measure that would implement a parcel tax to bring in more revenue to support libraries and parks in the city.
There’s a lot of tax talk going on.
And now there’s more.
The Building Industry Association, which is only a few weeks out from installing a new CEO, has outlined an ambitious plan to try to spur the creation of more affordable and middle-income housing. And one feature of it is to put a fee on real estate transactions.
It’s not something the group is determined to pursue but the idea has now advanced far enough to reportedly irk some of its allies. It’s part of a document the group is working on called a Three-Pronged Approach to Finance and Build Additional Restricted Affordable Housing in San Diego.
“This transfer tax (% to be determined) should be charged only at the point of a property sale, and should only be charged on the amount of property value increase a property owner received,” the document reads.
Lori Holt Pfeiler, the new CEO of BIA San Diego, cautioned the idea is just that – an idea. And she was a bit frustrated that the Politics Report got a hold of the document laying it out because she hadn’t had a chance to really discuss it and have partners, like real estate friends who have partnered with the BIA over the years, to influence it and get on board.
Tony Manolatos, who serves as a spokesman for the BIA, told the Politics Report that he wouldn’t be surprised if the measure was advanced for the November 2022 ballot.
“They haven’t settled on any tactics,” he said. “There is a real sense of urgency, though, to create more housing especially for the middle class.”
Governor Newsom signed SB 9 yesterday, but it won’t change much because building an ADU is cost prohibitive. How many people need one bad enough that they would spend $50,000 to $100,000 and go through the hassle? Plus the number of available parcels will limit how many could get built:
On Sept. 16, two days after winning the recall election, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the bill into law, despite pleas from cities to veto it.
But some analysts say the linchpin of the Senate’s housing package would probably have a negligible impact on the California housing crisis, at least in the short-term. As for the nightmare scenario described by opponents? There simply isn’t enough evidence to back that up, either.
That’s because a change to zoning means very little in reality, starting with the number of units that would actually get built, these analysts say.
Development would be realistic in only about 410,000 parcels in California at most, or 5.4% of land now occupied by single-family houses, according to a new study by the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley based on the version of the bill without the new amendments.
That could add a total of 700,000 new units across California, if every single homeowner for whom the change made sense chose to develop. “Overall, that’s a sliver of the 7.5 million single-family homes throughout the state,” said David Garcia, policy director for the Terner Center.
One of the new amendments — which requires owners to live in the home for at least three years after they split their lots and build as many as four units — cuts the potential total of new units by 40,000, or 6%.
The analysis was conducted using current land values and development costs, so the number of feasible units could change. But Garcia said that was unlikely in the near-term. The study found that the typical property owner could not afford to build a second unit, much less a third or fourth. Other barriers: The new split lot couldn’t be less than 1,200 square feet, and historic districts, fire hazard zones and some rural areas would be barred from development.
“You would not see the wholesale bulldozing of single-family homes, as we’ve seen characterized in many of the public comments in committee hearings,” Garcia said. “There’s just no financial basis for that fear.”
Plans are taking shape for 10,000 units of new housing in the heavily industrial area - Is San Diego building an Amazon company town from scratch? https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/environment/story/2021-09-25/san-diego-amazon-company-town
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!