The numbers were fairly steady through the May reading…..but the number of unsold listings have jumped in most areas now (with Encinitas and La Jolla at, or near, all-time highs). The current inventory of 507 actives is 23% higher than last July!
Rancho Santa Fe is on its way back to its old pattern of having 10x the number of actives vs. pendings.
The second half of 2024 is probably going to be relatively unsuccessful for the current sellers who have been on the market for 30+ days – they aren’t priced to move now, and it’s unlikely they will adjust enough to be an attractive buy (which would probably take a discount of -10% or more).
If they all have to come back next year….plus those who decided to wait out the political circus….plus the usual sellers, the 2025 inventory could feel like a real surge. I already have three different sellers who are choosing to wait until 2025 to put their home on the market!
NSDCC Total Number of Listings and Median List Price, First Half of the Year:
2019: 2,722, $1,550,000
2020: 2,324, $1,650,000
2021: 2,266, $1,899,000
2022: 1,812, $2,350,000
2023: 1,468, $2,500,000
2024: 1,663, $2,715,000
If the number of listings explodes next year, these price gains are going to need to mellow out.
So Jim, are you calling a peak or a bubble?
I’m not one to call a peak or bubble – I’m just riding the wave and hope I don’t drown.
But the seasonality is going to be a major factor. I already think we’re done for the year, but then I’ll see a new datapoint that reminds me how resilient this market has been.
I already said that sales will struggle the rest of 2024, and we may not see another month with 100+ closings.
This month? There have already been 91 closings between La Jolla and Carlsbad!! The SP:LP is 100% too, and the median sales price is $2,350,000 which is about where it has been lately. Hard to believe, but it’s true!