California Net Migration

The number of people moving is half of what it used to be.

The gap between who’s left California by major van lines, and who’s arrived, is now at its widest in 13 years.

Every January three major van lines put out data on their state-to-state moving business. Such interstate moves by van lines are a shrinking migration niche for folks with deep pockets. Corporations have shied from paying the pricey tab for professional relocation services. Not to mention that Americans overall aren’t relocating like they once did.

Inbound moves: The state’s real problem. Americans may visit the Golden State, but don’t want to live here. So just 19,196 inbound van moves last year vs. 22,492 in the previous year — down 15%. Last year is 37% below the 16-year average. Census data for 2018 showed the total number of Californians arriving from other states was the lowest in five years.

Outbound moves: Departures, a focus of the grand California “exodus” discussions, are falling, too. Last year’s 23,595 outbound van moves were down 8% in a year to 25,618. Last year is 27% below the historical average. Census figures for 2018 show Californian’s total departures rising for the seventh consecutive year.

The “net” result: Last year California suffered 4,399 more outs to other states vs. arrivals, the largest since 2006, and up from 3,126 in the previous year. Since 2004, California has averaged a net van-line outflow of 1,731 a year. By Census math, California’s total “net outmigration” was at its widest gap since 2009.

Link to Article

Where to Move

Would more people leave California if they just knew where to go?

Here are my favorite links to get your research started:

Best Places to Retire – 2020:

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to-retire

Best Places to Live 2020:

https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to-live

Money Magazine, Best Places to Live in the U.S., 2019:

https://money.com/collection/best-places-to-live-2019/

Best 100 Places to Live, 2019:

https://livability.com/best-places/top-100-best-places-to-live/2019

Sunset Magazine, Best Small Towns – 2018:

https://www.sunset.com/travel/travel-tips/best-small-towns-to-live-in

 Charming Small Towns Across America:

http://www.countryliving.com/life/travel/g2294/must-visit-small-towns-across-america/

15 Best Small Towns in California

http://101usa.com/top-15-small-cities-in-california/

Best Towns in California to Raise a Family:

https://wallethub.com/edu/best-worst-cities-for-families-in-california/15993/

NAR Top 10 Outperforming Markets

Whether you move there or just buy rental properties, these are NAR’s hotspots:

In offering its list, NAR tracked ongoing data including domestic migration, housing affordability for new residents, consistent job growth relative to the national average, population age structure, attractiveness for retirees and home price appreciation.

The 10 markets that made the cut were, in alphabetical order: Charleston, S.C.; Charlotte, N.C.; Colorado Springs, Colo.; Columbus, Ohio; Dallas-Fort Worth; Fort Collins, Colo.; Las Vegas; Ogden, Utah; Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.; and Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fla.

“Some markets are clearly positioned for exceptional longer term performance due to their relative housing affordability combined with solid local economic expansion,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Drawing new residents from other states will also further stimulate housing demand in these markets, but this will create upward price pressures as well, especially if demand is not met by increasing supply.”

“Potential buyers in these 10 markets will find conditions especially favorable to purchase a home going into the next decade,” added NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co. Inc. in San Francisco. “The dream of owning a home appears even more attainable for those who move to or are currently living in these markets.”

Link to Article

Hottest Markets in 2020

Forget Seattle, Denver and San Francisco. Boise, Idaho, is poised to be the hottest housing market at the start of the next decade.

A new report from Realtor.com identified the housing markets that are expected to see the most notable home sales and price growth in 2020. Boise ranked No. 1, a marked increase from No. 8 a year ago.

Driving Boise’s climb up the Realtor.com ranking is the massive influx of new residents from pricier parts of the country — in particular, California. Many of these out-of-state buyers are drawn by the city’s mild climate, outdoor lifestyle, strong schools and its major employers, including HP and Micron Technologies.

Boise’s already seen a boom in terms of housing. A recent report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed that home prices in the Idaho state capital have risen 11.1% over the last year.

After Boise, McAllen, Texas, and Tucson, Ariz., ranked No. 2 and No. 3 on Realtor.com’s list. McAllen’s affordable home prices, combined with Texas’ favorable tax environment, have made the border city an attractive destination for home buyers looking to move. Tucson, meanwhile, has benefitted from an influx of retirees looking for warm weather and young adults looking to study at the University of Arizona or work for popular companies that have set up shop there like Amazon and Texas Instruments.

Meanwhile, some of the parts of the country that have proven to be among the most popular in recent years are expected to see a bit of a correction in 2020. Las Vegas, which ranked No. 7 last year, has dropped to the bottom of Realtor.com’s list for 2020. Sin City for a long stretch of time saw bumper home price growth, but the housing market there has cooled in recent months.

Similarly, sky-high home prices in places like San Diego, New York and Los Angeles are poised to put a damper on real-estate activity in those areas as most buyers are forced to the sidelines due to a lack of affordability.

Link to Article

Susie’s Thoughts on Boise

Here are Susie’s comments on the Boise article from Monday – she moved there from California a few years ago:

Hi Jim, just saw this. The recent election was interesting. Incumbent mayor Dave Beiter (since 2004) was running for his 5th term and received only 30% of the vote, while the Boise City Council president Lauren McClean got 46% of the vote. There was a field of 7 candidates. Wayne Richey, whose platform was anti-California, received just 2% of the vote.

McClean’s platform was for more affordable housing–(Boise was the fastest-growing city in the nation a couple years ago and prices have skyrocketed)–and transparency in local government.

Since no one received 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff for Boise mayor in early December between Beiter and McClean. The new home we built a year ago is only about a 1/2 mile from the Boise so I wasn’t able to vote in the Boise mayor election.

Yep, I did change my California plates as I heard that it was important to do. Ironically, I have been unable to remove my sunbaked UC-Santa Cruz bumper sticker in my back window as my daughter graduated from there in 2012. I have never had anyone yell at me on the roads but took a neighbors advice to say I’m from Santa Barbara and not California. Why? “Everyone loves Santa Barbara!”

The only time I’ve been verbally assaulted–strangely– had nothing to do with California. It  happened in my first few months here. A lady in a store was very upset at me because I pronounced Boise “Boi-zee” and not “Boi-see”. “If you’re going to live here, you better pronounce it correctly!,” she admonished me.

Being a real estate addict, I’ve asked agents if everyone moving here is coming from CA. The answer was California, Washington and Colorado, with some from the East Coast.

I find Boise a friendly place. When I moved up here, I decided it’s best not to get into too many political discussions. That philosophy has proven to be a good decision. 
-Sue

PS I was in deep mourning over the Dodgers not getting into the World Series this year. How about you?

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