People are curious about where today’s buyers are coming from, and while results may vary for each individual neighborhood, we might be able to get a general sense from data like this.
Not everyone who is looking is an actual home buyer, and not everyone uses this search portal.
But this data backs up the latest idea that people tend to want to stay close to home. Almost three-quarters of those looking at San Diego real estate are local folks, and more than half of the rest are from L.A.
San Diegans are looking at these destinations also – this is interactive is you’d like to explore further:
My guess was that we’d have 10% MORE listings this year, as a result of there being a few more reasons to move – covid letting up, Prop 19, forbearance expiration, etc. Instead, we have covid hanging around, Prop 19 has been a dud, and forbearances have been extended through the year.
With 19% FEWER listings (so far), the impact shifts to pricing, and we see rapidly-rising home prices instead. We need more people leaving, and fewer people coming, to balance it out – and price will fix that too!
Hat tip to CP for sending this in this report from CPL:
Recent news reports, preliminary data, and anecdotes suggest the COVID-19 pandemic is either causing or accelerating an exodus from California. The extent of any such exodus, and whether it proves to be temporary or permanent, is not yet clear — at least not in data sources traditionally used to quantify residential mobility.
The stakes are high: significant population shifts could affect the size and composition of regional labor markets as well as rent and home values. Some fear that mass departures by the state’s wealthy could reduce local and state tax revenues, potentially affecting the services governments are able to provide for years to come.
A move is defined as having a different ZIP code in the next quarter. The data universe for this analysis is individuals in the UC-CCP with credit history; this population is older, more financially advantaged, and less diverse than the population of all adults in California.who had a different zip code on their credit report.
New documentary, ‘Some Kind of Heaven’ explores the dark underside of America’s largest retirement community known as ‘The Villages’ in central Florida with a notorious swingers scene. The community was designed to be a manicured fantasy land for seniors aged 55+ ; grandchildren and visitors under the age minimum are strictly prohibited to visit for more than 30 calendar days.
It’s dubbed ‘the Disneyland for retirees’ because the neighborhoods are designed like a theme park to imitate old town squares, complete with make-believe histories; residents say its like living in a ‘bubble’
The developers own a TV channel, multiple radio stations and newspaper that only prints positive news
Critics say The Villages are like a creepy Stepford cult for Baby Boomers with Orwellian-like rules that are dictated by an elusive family worth billions of dollars
According to the US Census, The Villages is the fastest growing metro in the United States where the population rose by 37.8% between 2010-2019; homes cost between $100K to $1million
The Villages is larger than the size of Manhattan and covers 32 square miles of property with 130,000 residents, five zip codes, 50 golf courses, 100 rec centers, 11 dog parks, 14 supermarkets
There are 2,700 social and recreational clubs for residents that include one for: singles, Beatlemaniacs, synchronized swimming, softball, cheerleading and retired CIA members
The Villages were ‘designed to hide all of the problems of everyday life’ says first time documentarian, Lance Oppenheim – his film follows the lives of four seniors that live on the fringe of the fantasy
Hat tip to just some guy for sending this news which shows that while migration has increased, many are opting to stay closer to home:
San Francisco’s chief economist, Ted Egan, said that while the out-migration patterns are alarming — only Manhattan has had as large an increase in people leaving the city during the pandemic — the fact that many are not going very far could represent “a silver lining” as the economy recovers post-pandemic.
“You are not going to have to worry about getting them to move back from Boise,” he said. “It looks more like normal pre-COVID migration flows. People are settling into nearby Bay Area suburbs. They are going to Sacramento and L.A. Travis County, which is Austin, Texas, is way down the list. Portland is way down the list. New York is way down the list.”
Maybe it means that our 55+ crowd may grab their old property-tax basis and just move a little further out after April 1st? We only need a few hundred of them to do so!
Statistically speaking, Idaho is one of America’s greatest economic success stories. The state has low unemployment and high income growth. It has expanded education spending while managing to shore up budget reserves. Brad Little, the state’s Republican governor, has attributed this run of prosperity to the mix of low taxes and minimal regulation that conservatives call “the business climate.”
But there is another factor at play: Californians, fleeing high home prices, are moving to Idaho in droves. For the past several years, Idaho has been one of the fastest-growing states, with the largest share of new residents coming from California. This fact can be illustrated with census data, moving vans — or resentment.
Home prices rose 20 percent in 2020, according to Zillow, and in Boise, “Go Back to California” graffiti has been sprayed along the highways. The last election cycle was a referendum on growth and housing, and included a fringe mayoral candidate who campaigned on a promise to keep Californians out. The dichotomy between growth and its discontents has fused the city’s politics and collective consciousness with a question that city leaders around the country were asking even before the pandemic and remote work trends accelerated relocation: Is it possible to import California’s growth without also importing its housing problems?
“I can’t point to a city that has done it right,” said Lauren McLean, Boise’s Democratic mayor.
That’s because as bad as California’s affordable housing problem is, it isn’t really a California problem. It is a national one. From rising homelessness to anti-development sentiment to frustration among middle-class workers who’ve been locked out of the housing market, the same set of housing issues has bubbled up in cities across the country. They’ve already visited Boise, Nashville, Denver and Austin, Texas, and many other high-growth cities. And they will become even more widespread as remote workers move around.
Housing costs are relative, of course, so anyone leaving Los Angeles or San Francisco will find almost any other city to have a bountiful selection of homes that seem unbelievably large and cheap. But for those tethered to the local economy, the influx of wealthier outsiders pushes housing costs further out of reach.
Are you thinking about moving, but after living in San Diego, you wonder about places like Austin where the high temperature today is predicted to be 28 degrees? How about Mexico? Here are some tips:
In 2006, after years of living paycheck to paycheck in Santa Cruz, California, I decided to move to Mexico. I was 50, and a prior vacation in the beautiful coastal town of Mazatlán had convinced me that an easier, happier and affordable lifestyle was possible.
Right now, it seems like many people are fantasizing or seriously thinking about moving out of the U.S., but are unsure of where to start. I thought I was well-prepared, but it was still a bumpy ride for a couple of years until I really felt settled. Today, I’m retired and living on just $1,000 per month.
Here are some tips I wish I’d known in the beginning:
1. Visit more than once, in different seasons
Once you’ve decided on a place, make an exploratory trip — and stay as long as you’re able to. I took a one-month leave of absence from my job and rented a furnished apartment in Mazatlán to see what it was like to live in a neighborhood instead of a hotel in the tourist zone.
Why different seasons?
Because that beautiful beach town may become unbelievably hot and humid during the summer months; those cool mountain breezes might warrant space heaters and wool sweaters in January.
Listen to, but don’t rely completely on, what other people say, no matter how reputable they seem. Only your experience can tell you exactly how you’ll feel.
In short, California and San Francisco in particular, has always been off-kilter and difficult, but at the same time remarkable and inspiring. (Maybe what’s different now is just that there’s more money.)
There’s a camp that downplays this recent exodus, arguing for one thing, that there are no hard numbers to measure the scale or import of people leaving.
“I feel like it’s too early to know, and anybody who claims they know for sure is doing that based purely on anecdote,” says Molly Turner, a professor at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business focused on tech and urban policy, who co-hosts the podcast “Technopolis.” “My gut tells me it’s mostly just a couple of loud people leaving and throwing a tantrum on the way out. I don’t think it will have a significant impact on the Bay Area as the global center of the tech industry.”
OK, that’s the gut, but what does a moving guy say? “Typically in years past [moving jobs have] been about 50% outbound, 50% inbound,” says Steve Komorous, who since 1988 has co-owned King Relocation Services, a moving agency in Los Angeles, California. “In 2020, it was 59% outbound, 41% inbound.”
Is that imbalance the biggest Komorous has ever seen? “I think that’s going too far,” he says. “I’ve been in this business since 1982. There have been big, funky years. This cycle of the mad dash leaving California, that will subside. It may take another year or so. It’s just a cycle.”
Your only real power as a service professional is your ability to withhold your services by saying 'No' to poor fits. The client will go with someone else when they're focused purely on price, but they will lose out on your creativity and professionalism.
House prices rose 19.8% Y/Y in August- same as the previous month & the first time the Y/Y gain hasn’t increased since early 2020. House price growth will likely slow as rising rates cut into affordability, but don't expect price declines b/c the supply-demand imbalance persists.
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!