San Diego Earthquakes

by | Jul 11, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor | 1 comment

After two major earthquakes rocked Southern California over the holiday weekend, many looked to one of San Diego’s own fault lines as a potential threat — but one seismologist says that’s hundreds of years away.

Drake Singleton is a Ph.D. candidate at San Diego State University whose thesis focuses on the Rose Canyon Fault, which runs through some of San Diego’s most populated areas.

Singleton’s work is helping to determine how fast the Rose Canyon is moving at depth — an important parameter to accurately characterize the seismic hazard for San Diego.

Several years ago, Singleton was part of a team that created a so-called “paleoseismic trench” in Old Town’s Presidio Park. He estimated earthquakes occur on the fault line every 700 years, on average — and that the last earthquake struck in the mid-1700s.

“The Rose Canyon fault line, based on the data that we have, looks like it’s right in the middle of its cycle and not toward the later. I would say the seismic hazard is lower than other faults in California, but still there,” Singleton told NBC 7.

He said there is a lower seismic hazard compared to the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault lines. But he also added the Rose Canyon Fault could potentially have a maximum magnitude in the high 6s — or possibly a 7.

“A lot of major freeways cross the fault zone, so there would be disruption to travel as well as damaged water pipes, that sort of thing,” said Singleton.

The San Diego County Office of Emergency Services, using a FEMA disaster evaluation model, put together estimated damage figures based on a 6.9 magnitude earthquake along the Rose Canyon fault line.  Costs would include $1,094,267,000 in structural damage, $5,317,666,000 in non-structural damage, and $1,972,043,000 in contents damage.

Additionally, the county estimated that 122 to 292 people would be hospitalized, 1,307 to 1,720 would need basic first aid care, and somewhere between 12 and 57 people would die.


https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Seismologist-Examines-San-Diego-Fault-Line-After-Two-Major-Quakes-512447351.html

Padres History

by | May 28, 2019 | Local Flavor | 7 comments

Since the Padres signed a player for $300 million recently, it’s interesting to note that on this day in 1973 they were sold for $12 million, which would have been a record-high price for a MLB franchise!

But the city wouldn’t let the Padres out of the remaining 15 years on their lease, so the buyer cancelled.

The Padres owner, the notorious C. Arnholt Smith, did sell the team to Ray Kroc – and the rest is history.

Link to SDUT

Best Affordable Cities in California

by | May 16, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor, Where to Move | 6 comments

Rob Dawg’s neighborhood!  Hat tip to Eddie89 for sending this in:

Surf, sun and year-round moderate temperatures can sometimes come at a cost.

With a reputation as one of the most expensive states in the U.S., California (thankfully) still has some economically sound places to reside – if you know where to look.

Just to be clear: We didn’t just create this list based solely on the cheapest places to live. The cost of living was part of our methodology, but so was the quality of life, as well as the key components of transportation, housing, food and utilities.

Here are the 5 most affordable cities in California:

  • Oxnard
  • Ventura
  • Simi Valley
  • Vacaville
  • Camarillo

1. Oxnard

About an hour north of Los Angeles, Oxnard offers beachfront living at an affordable price.

The median household income here is $62,349 with median home value settling at $332,600, which is actually a great deal for California real estate.

Golf, winery visits and strolls on Mandalay Beach are all part of living in Oxnard.

With fertile agricultural land surrounding the city, many crops grow in the region. But Oxnard is most famous for its strawberries, with the popular California Strawberry Festival held here each year.

The city has the nickname of the “Gateway to the Channel Islands,” a nearby national park and marine sanctuary.

Link to Full Article

Inventory Watch

by | Apr 29, 2019 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor | 2 comments

If you’d like to contribute to the Chabad of Poway in hopes of finding solutions to the senseless violence that plagues our society, click here:

Link to Donation Page

What’s the answer?

Let’s start by interviewing the murderers in jail and have them reflect on how stupid it was to throw their life away, and then share that with the kids.

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This is a real estate blog, and I’m going to plow ahead. Let’s keep living!

Here’s a fascinating example of the current market conditions between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and it shows that it’s not just about price.

Today there are 62% more homes for sale priced under $1,000,000 than there were last year – you can buy a cheaper home!  But buyers want quality – look at how the average list-price-per-sf of the pendings relates to the actives:

NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings

Price
# of ACT
Avg. $$/sf
# of PEND
Avg. $$/sf
0-$1.0M
99
$469/sf
84
$481/sf
$1M–$1.5M
193
$507/sf
128
$515/sf
$1.5M–$2M
148
$605/sf
77
$602/sf
$2.0M+
501
–
88
$873/sf

This is why pricing will likely plateau – people are willing to pay these prices if they can just get a suitable home. They are making their decisions based on location, condition, and schools, and are willing to pass on inferior homes even though they could save some money.

Buyers are decisive too, and are willing to act when they see the right fit. Look at how the average days-on-market compares:

NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings

Price
# of ACT
Avg. DOM
# of PEND
Avg. DOM
0-$1.0M
99
43
84
21
$1M–$1.5M
193
49
128
30
$1.5M–$2M
148
49
77
39
$2.0M+
501
97
88
116

The higher-end buyers are being very deliberate, but the rest are acting!

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