After two major earthquakes rocked Southern California over the holiday weekend, many looked to one of San Diego’s own fault lines as a potential threat — but one seismologist says that’s hundreds of years away.
Drake Singleton is a Ph.D. candidate at San Diego State University whose thesis focuses on the Rose Canyon Fault, which runs through some of San Diego’s most populated areas.
Singleton’s work is helping to determine how fast the Rose Canyon is moving at depth — an important parameter to accurately characterize the seismic hazard for San Diego.
Several years ago, Singleton was part of a team that created a so-called “paleoseismic trench” in Old Town’s Presidio Park. He estimated earthquakes occur on the fault line every 700 years, on average — and that the last earthquake struck in the mid-1700s.
“The Rose Canyon fault line, based on the data that we have, looks like it’s right in the middle of its cycle and not toward the later. I would say the seismic hazard is lower than other faults in California, but still there,” Singleton told NBC 7.
He said there is a lower seismic hazard compared to the San Andreas and San Jacinto fault lines. But he also added the Rose Canyon Fault could potentially have a maximum magnitude in the high 6s — or possibly a 7.
“A lot of major freeways cross the fault zone, so there would be disruption to travel as well as damaged water pipes, that sort of thing,” said Singleton.
The San Diego County Office of Emergency Services, using a FEMA disaster evaluation model, put together estimated damage figures based on a 6.9 magnitude earthquake along the Rose Canyon fault line. Costs would include $1,094,267,000 in structural damage, $5,317,666,000 in non-structural damage, and $1,972,043,000 in contents damage.
Additionally, the county estimated that 122 to 292 people would be hospitalized, 1,307 to 1,720 would need basic first aid care, and somewhere between 12 and 57 people would die.
Since the Padres signed a player for $300 million recently, it’s interesting to note that on this day in 1973 they were sold for $12 million, which would have been a record-high price for a MLB franchise!
But the city wouldn’t let the Padres out of the remaining 15 years on their lease, so the buyer cancelled.
The Padres owner, the notorious C. Arnholt Smith, did sell the team to Ray Kroc – and the rest is history.
Once upon a time Carlsbad was a sleepy little beachside town, but now big money is taking over. Here’s a tour of projects being discussed on the street:
Rob Dawg’s neighborhood! Hat tip to Eddie89 for sending this in:
Surf, sun and year-round moderate temperatures can sometimes come at a cost.
With a reputation as one of the most expensive states in the U.S., California (thankfully) still has some economically sound places to reside – if you know where to look.
Just to be clear: We didn’t just create this list based solely on the cheapest places to live. The cost of living was part of our methodology, but so was the quality of life, as well as the key components of transportation, housing, food and utilities.
Here are the 5 most affordable cities in California:
Oxnard
Ventura
Simi Valley
Vacaville
Camarillo
1. Oxnard
About an hour north of Los Angeles, Oxnard offers beachfront living at an affordable price.
The median household income here is $62,349 with median home value settling at $332,600, which is actually a great deal for California real estate.
Golf, winery visits and strolls on Mandalay Beach are all part of living in Oxnard.
With fertile agricultural land surrounding the city, many crops grow in the region. But Oxnard is most famous for its strawberries, with the popular California Strawberry Festival held here each year.
The city has the nickname of the “Gateway to the Channel Islands,” a nearby national park and marine sanctuary.
Let’s start by interviewing the murderers in jail and have them reflect on how stupid it was to throw their life away, and then share that with the kids.
This is a real estate blog, and I’m going to plow ahead. Let’s keep living!
Here’s a fascinating example of the current market conditions between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and it shows that it’s not just about price.
Today there are 62% more homes for sale priced under $1,000,000 than there were last year – you can buy a cheaper home! But buyers want quality – look at how the average list-price-per-sf of the pendings relates to the actives:
NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings
Price
# of ACT
Avg. $$/sf
# of PEND
Avg. $$/sf
0-$1.0M
99
$469/sf
84
$481/sf
$1M–$1.5M
193
$507/sf
128
$515/sf
$1.5M–$2M
148
$605/sf
77
$602/sf
$2.0M+
501
–
88
$873/sf
This is why pricing will likely plateau – people are willing to pay these prices if they can just get a suitable home. They are making their decisions based on location, condition, and schools, and are willing to pass on inferior homes even though they could save some money.
Buyers are decisive too, and are willing to act when they see the right fit. Look at how the average days-on-market compares:
NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings
Price
# of ACT
Avg. DOM
# of PEND
Avg. DOM
0-$1.0M
99
43
84
21
$1M–$1.5M
193
49
128
30
$1.5M–$2M
148
49
77
39
$2.0M+
501
97
88
116
The higher-end buyers are being very deliberate, but the rest are acting!
Denk Mountain is the unofficial name of the highest point in the City of Carlsbad. It may be a little presumptuous to call it a mountain, but at 1041 feet of elevation, it is high enough to offer dramatic views up and down the San Diego coast, especially west to where the Batiquitos Lagoon discharges into the Pacific.
The name honors the Denk family, who once owned much of the land that is now the Rancho La Costa Preserve, which is owned and managed by a non-profit, the Center for Natural Lands Management (tax deductible donations are appreciated). If you are a mountain biker and don’t already know about these trails, you should definitely check it out.
The preserve has over 6 miles of trails, some of which are very challenging. It can be a pleasant hike or trail run for anyone in moderately good physical condition. Many trails of varying difficulty lead to the peak. The route described here is only one of several possibilities.
The trails are open year-round from dawn to dusk, but the best times to go are mornings between January and June, preferably after a storm has left the area with clear air and perhaps some dramatic clouds.
Warning: rattlesnakes live here. Also, it is a very active mountain biking area. While hikers have the right-of-way, you should do whatever you need to do to avoid a collision with a rapidly moving bicycle. There is no shade, and the hillside tends to face toward the sun. Bring trekking poles if you have them, as they will be useful at times.
Back in July 1978 the average home price in San Diego was $73,000. That may sound inexpensive but that was still $22,000 higher than the national average at the time! La Jolla was much higher and you couldn’t find much for under $150,000. Scripps Ranch average was between $90,000-$100,000, Mira Mesa ranged between $55,000-$100,000, and the newer community of Rancho Penasquitos average was $75,000. Chula Vista had some good buys and Imperial Beach averaged about the same as the city of San Diego. In this three part series, Dave Cohen interviews century 21 realtor Jay Meetze on the housing market in the summer of ’78.
The C.A.R. sent out this paper that reviews the current housing dilemma, which boils down to having to improve zoning regulations to facilitate more/better infill projects because the more-mature cities are out of land for the most part. She also included this:
However, the paper also offers evidence that cities can use their control over the development process to limit access to housing, sometimes in problematic ways. The finding that less housing is built in cities with both higher homeownership rates and White populations is sadly consistent with existing research on NIMBY opposition to local housing development (Lewis & Baldassare, 2010; Scally & Tighe, 2015; Whittemore & BenDor, 2018). These studies examined opposition to building multifamily or affordable housing; it is striking that in this study cities with more homeowners and larger white populations had less single-family development. This finding serves as yet another warning that racial exclusion from White communities continues to limit housing opportunities for people of color.
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