Statistics are a funny thing and the quirks that happen regularly are interesting.
In our categories of active listings (below), THREE of the four has the exact same number of actives this week as they had last week!
I wouldn’t consider the market as stagnant. It’s more of an equilibrium where the number of new listings are replacing the new pendings at a similar pace. It probably means we are at or near peak Spring Selling Season! It would be hard to imagine that it could get any hotter which would cause the active-listings count to recede?
But look at the last two years in the graph above. It’s right around this time of year that the growth of active listings did mellow out the most, before climbing again in late-April/May.
Generally speaking, each of the 2025 quartiles is lower today than they were last year, and the median list price is down to $4,000,000 – which is 11% lower than it was at the start of the year.
It’s because the lower end has been cooking, and the higher-end not so much.
There have been 309 homes sell or go pending since January 1st that were priced under $4,000,000, and only 69 homes priced above $4,000,000 have found a buyer.
Who cares – find the right house for you, and make the best deal you can.
NSDCC Number of Active Listings by Price Range
0 – $2,000,000: 52
$2,000,000 – $4,000,000: 156
$4,000,000 – $6,000,000: 87
$6,000,000 – $8,000,000: 39
$8,000,000 – $10,000,000: 24
$10,000,000 and up: 58
This is an area (La Jolla to Carlsbad) where the median sales price in 2024 was $2,400,000.
When $2,000,000 is the entry level for a decent home in Carlsbad, home buyers should really consider what that money will get them just 20-25 minutes away.
The sellers agreed to a proper price reduction yesterday (-11%), and I feel like selling it today!
Since October, I’ve been blabbing on and on how there were several reasons why the pent-up supply was finally going to bust loose in 2025.
If you want to sell your house this year, you better get on it.
It’s more than just an isolated or local thing. Look at the stats above – there is a cultural/communal thing where there are more homes for sale everywhere.
The cheerleaders will be bantering about how the locked-in effect is loosening and we’re just getting back to normal. But they will shut up in another couple of months when they don’t know what to make of it.
Even if the total number of listings isn’t much higher than last year (NSDCC total listings = +9% YoY for first two months), more are not selling. The unsold listings will be stacking up by June. Or May. It will probably cause buyers to be more hesitant, and that’s saying a lot because they are already being fairly cautious.
We have four listings to roll out over the next month, and while we would never launch before we’re absolutely ready, I’m encouraging everyone to expedite!
The Compass CEO, Robert Reffkin, is a vocal opponent of the Clear Cooperation Policy. Those in the business call him names and say his only motivation for opposing the CCP is to promote in-house sales.
The point that gets trampled over is that consumers and agents should be free to choose how they want to market the properties for sale.
The CCP insists that listings go onto the MLS right away, and be subject to this nonsense:
They don’t name Zillow but obviously that’s the target.
As we saw yesterday, Zillow is not truthful. They don’t care about doing what’s best for sellers or agents. They only care about making money, and dominating the space.
Unfortunately, the NAR and others turned over the control of the marketing of our listings to Zillow, Homes.com, and Murdoch’s Realtor.com – which is the real disappointment! Realtors don’t own, and we don’t control realtor.com? What a travesty!
Compass is determined to take control of the marketing of our listings.
It starts with getting our listings onto the internet before the search portals. Having the consumers see our listings on our website, and thereby contacting the listing agents who know the most about the properties, is better for the consumer than being funneled to outside agents who are paying for leads:
I’ve been saying for a while that everything happening in residential real estate is heading towards single agency, and eliminating the buyer-agents. Homes.com is directing consumers to the listing agent, and spending millions on advertising to make a point of it.
We’re in the transition phase, and I’ll predict the future.
Compass will quit NAR and the MLS, and go it alone.
If you ask me, we’re already big enough to do it now. I have encouraged Robert to do it, but it’s too early.
But it’s coming.
We will still be happy to cooperate with outside agents – they will just have to find our listings on our website, instead of elsewhere. We’re just doing what Redfin did – make our website more popular with consumers.
What about the Private Exclusives, the title of this post?
They are allowed now, and because you only sell a house once, sellers and agents should have the choice to sell a home off-market. Here are good reasons to do so:
The allure of an insider deal can cause a buyer to pay more – they are sexy deals.
Buyers don’t have the benefit of open-market exposure to test the price.
It keeps the bozo agents from screwing up deals.
We have it happening right now. Our sellers are in escrow with buyers who got squeamish this week. Their agent was NO help. He had no experience or ability to try to help them through their foibles which had little, or nothing, to do with buying the house. Donna and I both had to step in to save the day (another reason to hire us to sell your house!).
It is detrimental for escrows to blow out. Trying to ignite the same urgency as when a listing is fresh on the market is impossible. Every buyer thinks something is wrong, and rarely do a home sell for the same price or more the second time around.
Those are three good reasons for our sellers to go Private Exclusive. I still believe in open-market exposure being the best route but it’s because I’m old-school. The current market conditions are tough and inviting every joker to bid on my listings has consequences, and they’re not all good.
Reffkin and Compass will undoubtedly taking more heat for questioning the CCP in the coming months, but it’s a sideshow. There will be bigger changes down the road – promise.
Our new listing hasn’t been on the open market for 24 hours yet and there have already been almost a thousand views with more than 11% of them marked as saved. My Youtube video has had 167 views in the first 48 hours too – wow!
It went live on the MLS at 10am yesterday, and the first showing was at noon! The buyers seemed to love it, and their agent tried to pressure me into selling it to them on the spot for full price ($2,000,000).
But I’m only going to sell it to the first buyers if the price is really attractive.
I told her it would take $2,500,000 to buy it.
She scoffed, but they made a written offer last night that was a little over the list price.
Do we sell it before the open-house extravaganza? We’ll see!
I’ve suggested that there are two different markets. One-story homes, and everything else.
It’s because older buyers don’t want stairs. Simple enough.
Baby boomers control the destiny of the real estate market, and specifically, the supply of homes for sale. They (we) got here first, and they are sticking around longer than ever before. Thus, the supply of one-story homes for sale is tight, and when they do hit the market, they tend to sell for a premium.
It would be nice to identify the premium so all participants can recognize and implement different standards when valuating a home.
This is a dramatic example, but worthy of discussion.
Look at the similarities of these two homes in NE Carlsbad:
Same street.
Same year built (1984).
Same week found their buyer.
Same week closed escrow.
Both had views.
Both were on a culdesac.
Both sold over their list price.
Both listings started their remarks with the universal, “Nestled”
The two-story home was 2,335sf, and sold for $1,618,000, or $692/sf.
The one-story home was 1,863sf and sold for $1,912,000, or $1,026/sf.
A difference of almost $300,000, on the same street, same week!
Yes, the one-story was a flip so it had the standard lipstick, and its view included a peek of the ocean but it was through the powerlines, plus their towers were in clear sight:
There was an 18% difference in price! And 48% difference in price-per-sf!
In this case, I’ll concede a lipstick bonus, and suggest a standard 10% premium for one-story vs. two-story homes. It could be rising too – it’s not going down, that’s for sure!
We started signing new listings in October in anticipation of the market getting off to a fast start early, just like last year. So far, so good:
NSDCC January Action
The previous years are sold listings that went pending in January. In 2025, most of the 126 are still pending and some will fall out. But more will be added too, so we’ll call it even for now.
But tracking about the same as last year is a good sign – last year was red hot in the first quarter.
How are we doing with the six listings in a row?
506 S. Freeman – Sold to cash buyer and closed in two weeks.
11463 Nantucket– Multiple offers and in escrow after first weekend. All contingencies released yesterday.
29482 Vista Valley – Active listing, 12 days on market. A real specialty property. It should sell.
The fourth listing was tenant-occupied, and they just vacated – we’re getting access today.
So instead we plugged in this RB condo for launch last weekend:
15283 Maturin #57 – Three offers, all over the list price. Will go pending today.
We decided to pause this week and launch the next listing on Thursday the 13th. Not because I fear going up against the Super Bowl because it doesn’t start until 3:30pm on Sunday – we’re doing a touch more tune-up to the house. Our next two listings are real trophy properties, stay tuned!
I think we can say that the market is fine, and isn’t showing signs of stalling due to a surge in listings.
It never occurs to the experts that higher prices have something to do with the locked-in effect, and that home sellers have to move to where it’s much cheaper to make it worth moving. For those who pay cash for their next home, having a 3% mortgage didn’t keep them from moving today – or any day.
I think my +15% to +20% inventory prediction is looking pretty good:
Some segments of the U.S. residential real estate market started to thaw in January after December’s deep freeze, with a growing number of homeowners listing their homes for sale in a sign that the stubborn “lock-in” effect is finally beginning to ease.
The “lock-in effect” refers to homeowners’ reluctance to sell because they have a low mortgage rate and would have to take out a mortgage at a higher rate when they buy a new home.
Even though the 30-year fixed mortgage rates continue to be high, hovering at just below 7%, homeowners seem to have accepted this new normal and are not letting it stop them.
“While rates remain elevated, it is possible that we might be seeing that chiseling effect starting as sellers may grow tired of waiting for significant changes in rates,” says Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale in her January monthly housing report.
“Further, while the lock-in effect remains a factor for many sellers, the strength of the effect is gradually waning,” Hale adds.
Realtor.com projects that home sales will rise by 1.5% in 2025, thanks in large part to the passage of time and slowly decreasing mortgage rates chipping away at the lock-in effect that has been hampering home sales for months.
The latest available data shows that newly listed homes were up 10.8% year-over-year, making it the busiest January in terms of new listing activity since 2021.
What’s more, freshly listed homes shot up 37.5% compared with December, marking the largest month-over-month spike in five years.
“Time and natural turnover could be leading some sellers to make a move this year despite higher rates,” explains Hale.
Looking at the big picture, overall home inventory across the U.S. was up 24.6% compared with the same time last year, a 15th consecutive month of growth. In terms of raw numbers, there were 829,376 active listings in January, plus 314,545 under-contract listings, also known as pending listings.
While home sellers are eager to sell, it seems that homebuyers are still hesitant to buy.
The average home lingered unsold for 73 days, making this January the slowest since 2020. Homes spent five days more on the market than last year and three days more than last month.
I thought that this would be the week that the surge of new listings would start to appear, but not yet. There have only been 167 new listings this month between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which is about the same pace as last January.
The monthly closed sales are about the same too. There were 102 NSDCC sales last January, and so far there have been 87 closings this month so we should exceed the 2024 count.
Ok – so we’re doing the same or a little better than last year.
The concern?
There have only been 81 new pendings this month.
It means the future closings are going to be light.
It looks like we’ll be lucky to reach 100 sales next month. There are only 109 total pendings today, and probably 20 of those will close this month! Last February, there were 140 closings.
Let’s examine our listing on Nantucket for guidance.
I thought we could get 5-10 offers, and might get bid up 5% to 10% over list. The house looked spectacular and seemed superior to the comp RIGHT NEXT DOOR that was pending with the same list price. The neighbor had a pool, but inside looked very standard.
But we received fewer than five offers and it only got bid up a little.
What happened?
I had 200+ people attend the open houses, so it seemed like everything was going right. But there must have been at least 6-8 people who told me that they were going to make an offer, but then disappeared.
Was it the three-day weekend? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it too early in the season? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it the price? I had 200+ people attend.
No matter how many homes the potential buyers have seen, they had to recognize that this home was highly upgraded, which is hard to find around Carmel Valley where the vast majority of homes for sale are older tract houses – but not old enough to be thoroughly renovated yet. It’s probably the worst time ever for CV shopping because every home not in Pacific Highlands Ranch looks dated now.
We have lookers. They appear to be very cautious and content to wait-and-see.
Will they be buyers? If they are waiting for better pricing, they will be in for a LONG wait. Sellers aren’t going to budge when they have a comp or two to back their case on price.
Buyer-agents are fading away, and this is where we will see the impact. Without having good help, potential buyers will be overly cautious and stay comfortably on the fence. Fewer sales ahead!
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
jesus a sahagun
2024-11-10
Verified
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SabihaPasha
2024-07-22
Verified
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
dodyfrancis
2024-07-10
Verified
I appreciate Jim & Donna's great teamwork, sound advice, and guidance that eased the stress of selling our Carlsbad home. Their professional input and assistance throughout the process was very helpful. Highly recommended!
sbisachsen
2024-07-10
Verified
The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
user19164788
2024-06-21
Verified
We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
cali4neal
2024-05-07
Verified
We had a wonderful experience buying our home with Donna and Jim! In particular I was very impressed with their efficiency and support through the purchase process. As we were doing the walk through, Donna started contacting roofers, plumbers, aircon, electricians, etc for all the areas we needed potential repairs - by the time we were done with the walk through appointments were already set up to get estimates for all the major services. When we had to change an appointment, or couldn't make one, Donna was there to arrange things to fit our schedule. Even after we closed on our home, Donna helped set up the repairs we needed before move in day. They truly went above and beyond to deliver exceptional service. I'll be calling them for our next home!
zuser20160809095816651
2024-03-16
Verified
The sale of our home exceeded our expectations - Jim and Donna Klinge are the best!
We’ve followed Jim’s Bubbleinfo blog since the 2006 housing bubble. After he helped us buy in 2017 we stayed in touch and Team Klinge were the obvious choice when it came time to move. They guided us through the preparation of the house, including a kitchen refresh - Donna and Lisa skillfully managed the various contractors for us after we had moved out of state. Donna’s excellent attention to detail and regular communication made the whole process run smoothly from a distance.
Jim’s market knowledge, expert negotiating skills and candid opinions, together with Donna’s responsive communications and problem solving, set them in a league of their own.
Highly recommended!
bourmakin
2024-02-09
Verified
Jim and Donna have exceeded my expectations with sale of my house. It was best experience with house sale. Professional, responsive, superior negotiating skills. I would recommend them with 5 star (I would give them even more than max) rating. Sale of my house was closed for really good price in 10 days. Jim and Donna perfectly handled house preparation for sale. Thanks a lot!!!
user1916779
2023-11-17
Verified
Jim and Donna have exceeded my expectations and made my most recent move back to California go so much more smoothly than I expected. Jim’s Bubbleinfo blog was full of useful information about the current market conditions. His experience helped us make a successful offer for the home we wanted in a desirable neighborhood. After the purchase Donna organized the work we needed done in the house without us having to make an additional trip. We were pretty worried when we started searching for real estate that not being in the area was going to makes things really difficult but Jim and Donna made the process so much easier. I enthusiastically recommend them.
Load more
Verified by Trustindex
Trustindex verified badge is the Universal Symbol of Trust. Only the greatest companies can get the verified badge who has a review score above 4.5, based on customer reviews over the past 12 months. Read more
