by Jim the Realtor | Jan 8, 2025 | Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?
Why should home buyers be optimistic about 2025? It’s because sales have bottomed (hopefully):
San Diego County Annual Sales of Detached-Homes:
2003: 28,251 (high point)
2021: 25,252
2022: 18,378
2023: 14,003
2024: 14,837
It’s still going to be a challenge though.
This website says there are 530,430 houses in San Diego County, and this one says 634,366 houses. It means that last year somewhere between 2.3% to 2.8% of the total houses county-wide sold last year.
Yes – more than 97% of the detached-home owners in SD County didn’t sell last year!
About the best we can expect is to get back to the 2022 level, which would be a 19% increase in sales, year-over-year. It would take a major price adjustment for sales to go that crazy, because rates are going the wrong way and inventory will probably be going up, not down.
How will pricing break out of the gate? Won’t home sellers – the vast majority of them selling their home for the first time in 10-40 years – want to add a little mustard to their list price, just to see?
It’s easier to imagine that scenario, than agents talking their sellers into a very attractive price this early on.
We’ve received offers on my listing on La Costa Avenue but everyone wants a 10% discount, even though I think I have it priced in already. I’ve been hoping that a slew of new listings nearby will hit the market this month in the mid-$2 millions to make my $1,995,000 list price look more attractive.
How am I doing so far?
Here is the first nearby competitor, and it’s priced the same as mine!
https://www.compass.com/listing/2014-saliente-way-carlsbad-ca-92009/1748808396982187689/
Yikes! Bad for me, but great for the 92009 buyers.
If more of the 2025 listings hit the market with an attractive price, we could have frenzy-like conditions!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 7, 2025 | 2025, Jim's Take on the Market, Over List
The buyer enthusiasm in the fourth quarter of 2024 was very impressive!
The percentage of sales that closed over their list price increased each month, and the 4Q sales were up 27% year-over-year!
NSDCC Monthly Sales & Pricing
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 5, 2025 | 2025, Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, Padres, The Future, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim
Virtually everyone is reluctant to predict the future of the real estate market. Even most realtors will throw their hands up and declare, “Who knows?”.
But around here, one fact has been clear and it tells us what we need to know about the rest of the year. The number of NSDCC listings in January ends up being 8% to 9% of the total for the year:
NSDCC Listings and Sales Data (La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, Cardiff, Encinitas, and Carlsbad)
It means that by mid-February we will be able to predict how many listings there will be in 2025, and thus, give us the likely direction of the market for the rest of the year.
I’ve been saying for three months that there is going to be a surge of listings, and it could be 15% to 20% more than there were in 2024. We’ve been doing the contest for Padres tickets to help put a spotlight on the January listings, and it has never been more interesting to see how many will hit the market this year!
Tomorrow, I’ll do a summary of the guesses so far and give everyone the rest of the week to enter or revise their guess so come back Monday morning.
The chart above gives more data for the analytical folks to craft their guess.
My Thoughts:
The last frenzy before Covid was in 2013. Pricing was stuck in a fairly tight range for the previous five years, but listings dropped and sales took off in 2012 and pricing followed in 2013 with a little more inventory. The variables weren’t all the same as today, but you may want to apply a similar effect from the animal spirits to today’s market. Or maybe not?
With another 9% increase in the median sales price and cost-per-sf in 2024, it shows that there really hasn’t been any limits on pricing. Will 2025 be the year that it changes? If so, will it be caused by another surge in listings? Or is there enough money floating around that more listings will cause more sales at higher prices like it did in 2024? It could go either way.
What about the political climate? Pro-Trump supporters are elated and will gladly join the buyer pool. Anti-Trump people are fearing the worst, but like we saw during the pandemic, fear is a fantastic motivator and it causes people to want to hunker down…at any price.
I had more people attend my open house yesterday on La Costa Avenue than I’ve had at the previous seven OHs. Most were just getting started, and the basic need for housing will keep them looking around. Will they buy? We’ll see.
We round-tripped four of our 17 listings in 2024 – and three of those were since the commission debacle on August 17th. Successfully working with buyers had already been a major challenge for agents, and now it’s worse. The affluent buyers will probably always want professional help, but will there be many, if any agents left who are willing to devote months of effort just to have their commission rate dangled in front of the seller for their approval?
Will the market survive it all? Yes, because there isn’t anything that price won’t fix!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 1, 2025 | 2025, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge
In 2024, we had more drama than usual. The Big Three:
- Hotly-contested election.
- Commission debacle.
- Mortgage rates that were supposed to come down, but didn’t.
Any one of those could have derailed the real estate market, but instead we survived just fine:
NSDCC Annual Counts, 2023 vs. 2024
With the drastic drop in inventory since covid, it seemed to make sense that the market could handle an extra 15% to 20% homes for sale.
Indeed – there were 14% more homes for sale, and sales AND pricing increased 9%!
The number of active listings at the start of 2024 was about the same as it was to begin 2023. However, we’re starting 2025 with 16% more actives already, and I expect an early surge. We could easily have 400+ NSDCC homes for sale by the end of January.
Can our local market handle 15% to 20% MORE homes for sale on top of what we had in 2024?
We’re going to find out!
Happy New Year!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 30, 2024 | 2025, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge |
We’re going to start the new year with about 17% more houses for sale than we did in 2024. They will be joined by other failed listings from the past, and the inventory will most likely be rising faster than normal.
The first inventory count of 2024 was 255 homes for sale on January 2nd, and that number was 22% higher by the first week of February.
If the 2025 inventory grows about the same or a little faster, it means there will be 375-400 homes for sale by the end of February. It will be VERY EARLY in the season to have that many homes for sale already! We didn’t get to 400 until mid-May of this year!
Personally, though we are expecting a fast start in 2025, we aren’t going to publish our first home for sale until January 9th. It will begin a six-week stretch where we will be rolling out a new listing every Thursday!
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My Reasons Why NSDCC Inventory Will Surge in 2025:
1. Been trending that way – there has been 15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year than in 2023.
2. More listings have been cancelling this year than in Q423. They’ll be back!
3. Prop 19 was fun while it lasted – more of those who inherited a home will want to cash out.
4. Credit card debt is over $1 trillion for the first time. More current homeowners will lighten the load by paying off all their bills and downsize to cheaper home (probably out of state).
5. The affluent fleeing the country – if you have nothing tying you down here, then there are other choices.
6. The 5th anniversary of Covid is a few months away. Those who put off moving can go ahead now!
7. California politics drives people away. Gav’s $25 million to fight Trump? Might be the last straw for some.
8. I don’t have the statistics but more baby boomers should be shuffling off this mortal coil.
9. We’re all older – if you’re going to move, do it while you still can, physically!
10. Covid buyers with life changes – Flush with equity, they can sell and buy a better house.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 27, 2024 | 2025, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge
*not done yet!
In spite of the most controversial election in the history of America – one that could have been much more distracting – the NSDCC sales in the second half of 2024 were phenomenal.
The number of second-half sales rose 13% year-over-year, and the median sales price was 8% higher!
Now if mortgage rates settle down a little and there isn’t any economic or political chaos over the next few months, the prospects for a fantastic 2025 look good!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 26, 2024 | 2025, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, Why You Should List With Jim |
Oh geez, did Jim say something about prices going down?
Yes, and isn’t it inevitable in areas where there is more supply than demand?
Sure, we can always reflect on Rancho Santa Fe where having your home languish on the market every year is a rite of passage. Somebody will come along some day, won’t they?
Bill is one of the OGs from 2005 and he is more analytical than me. He is giving us a formula; when the months’ supply gets over 5, prices might decline:
The NSDCC is safely around a 3-month supply currently. We’ll see where it is in February and March!
https://open.substack.com/pub/calculatedrisk/p/question-9-for-2025-what-will-happen
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 25, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market |
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 23, 2024 | 2025, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, Spring Kick
Last week there were 386 NSDCC active listings, and today there are 343 – a difference of 57.
Impressively, there were 25 listings that were marked as ‘pending’ in the last week! But it also means that a load of the unsuccessful sellers of 2024 will be back early next year, with most relisting in January.
This year we began with 255 NSDCC active listings.
In 2025, there will be 300+ and dozens of others flooding back into the market.
Who are they?
We are a community dominated by empty-nesters. From last January:
Around 80% of the local homeowners have been here for more than eight years!
Those are the folks who have received $1,000,000+ in home equity since the pandemic.
It’s not hard to imagine that 10% to 20% of them will want to cash out in 2025!
An additional 15% to 20% of inventory next year (on top of the 14% surge in 2024) is in the bag.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 20, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market |
