Zillow did get around to updating their Estimated market value after a few days. They kicked up the zestimate by $633,200 to get within 0.18% of the list price – and they are still wrong!
It is incredible how much faith and confidence the consumers put in their zestimate’s accuracy. But after years of being the source for the one-click home valuations – and consistent re-marketing by email – people believe it.
Zillow says their zestimate is within 1.9% of being right on price with the on-market homes, which sounds really good until you realize what that means – they just change the zestimate once a home gets listed…..and they brag about that? They hope you don’t notice.
You say ‘full transparency’ and blah, blah, Jim – what do you mean? What happened? Give us the dets!!
We received two cash offers during the open house on Saturday, one from the first people who saw it on Friday, and the other from a buyer who attended the open house – which was a quick turnaround because I told her that we already had a cash offer.
Each buyer had their own agent, and the terms were similar. It was going to come down to price.
They are called ‘bidding wars’ in this business, but the way the vast majority of agents handle them, it’s really just a collection of offers. The listing agent might use a spreadsheet to organize them, but in the end, they are presented to the sellers who then just picks a winner – usually after the listing agent chimes in with their preference.
It’s not right that the listing agents get to play God and decide the outcome. I want the market to decide it, because that’s what is fair to all buyers, all buyer-agents, and especially the sellers.
Plus, I don’t want to delay the outcome for hours or days and risk that the buyers might cool off – which is what usually happens as listing agents let days go by after their first offer is received, thinking it might get better, later.
I started my bidding war as soon as I got in my car to leave the open house.
I called the agent for the first buyer and told him he’d been outbid, THEN I TOLD HIM BY HOW MUCH, and asked if he wanted to go higher.
He called back in ten minutes with his new bid.
I went back to the agent for the second buyer and told her that SHE HAD BEEN OUTBID BY X AMOUNT, and asked if they wanted to improve their offer.
My slow-motion auction lasted until one of the buyers ran out of gas about 90 minutes later.
It worked great, and maybe even better than a live auction because bidders don’t feel rushed to make an instant decision. They were able to confer with their agent and make a deliberate new bid.
Both buyers had a fair and clear chance to purchase the home, which is missing with the Offer Collection method. When listing agents just pick their favorite offer, instead of requesting higher bids, it leaves money on the table and it makes the remaining buyers wonder what happened – most of which would have made a better offer, if they were only given the chance.
Thanks go out to Jerry Ryan, who publishes a monthly newsletter out of the goodness in his heart – giving us another look at the local stats.
He circled in red (above) and I added a red arrow below that show how the inventory has been so different this year – and it really dropped off in September. Yet sales are actually higher, YTD.
I love his sparkbars too!
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Previously, it might have been possible to have a month or two where the SP:LP ratio would be close to 100%. But in 2021, we might have the ratio be over 100% for the entire year!
We had a surge in sales at the end of 2012 and 2020, and both were followed by incredible frenzy conditions the next year. Are we setting up for a big 2022? Here is the latest report on the national picture:
Natalie (who is doing a stellar job as marketing director!) suggested that some people might want to hear thoughts on the market conditions in a longer podcast-type format, so here’s my six minutes:
The real estate business is fast moving and sellers and buyers are making snap decisions. You want an adviser who knows the market and can deliver advice extemporaneously!
We keep hearing people say that the inventory is rising………..but is it?
Bill’s chart shows how different the San Diego inventory is compared to all the others:
Ten of his 22 metros did have increases in their inventories, month-over-month! But MOST had declines, with San Diego being the leader – by far.
The San Diego inventory plunged almost 19% month-over-month (second only to Albuquerque) and was the decisive #1 metro winner with the 49.3% decline, YoY.
We have half the inventory we had a year ago!
But it’s not affecting sales, because demand is overwhelming. The September sales were outstanding – higher than in recent years, except for the big rally in the second half of last year:
How will this play out next year?
Let’s assume that there is pent-up supply, and there is a surge of listings next year – is there precedent?
Yes, and let’s check the last time the inventory had been in decline. In early 2013, we got a boost of listings, and the waiting demand gobbled them up – and the frenzy was on:
Hopefully it will happen like that again in 2022, and it will be surge-proof. The more listings that come to market, the hotter the frenzy will be.
I’m on a morning call with 150 Compass agents around California. The leader said today that most agents have a 10:1 ratio of buyers to sellers. The demand is there!
But it could be fairly subdued next year, if nobody wants to sell.
The developer sold these last five lots separately so buyers could build their dream home. Here’s a custom 2,143sf one-story house overlooking the lagoon that’s priced at $2,388,000. It fell out of escrow once, and went right back in – currently pending:
People are leery when the squid speaks, but they could be right about additional price gains in 4Q21.
Here’s why:
We had a 15% increase in the NSDCC median sales price between September, 2020 and January.
There will be fewer sales this year, which typically provides more volatility.
Frustrated buyers will pass on the fixers, and wait ’til next year instead.
With the sales mix having a bigger percentage of superior homes, pricing should get a boost.
My #1 reason? We’ve experienced intense frenzy conditions, and it has gotten to the point where the comps don’t seem to matter any more. Buyers just want a house, and they will pay whatever it takes!
It looks like the California showings are reflecting the lack of new listings coming to market.
For the last few months, it has felt like January (which is what this graph is indicating). Not many decent listings to consider, at any price – and hopes for something to change soon!
This latest survey by realtor.com shows that only 11% of homebuyers are concerned about the drought (just edging out the sinkholes!):
Homeowners were the most concerned about tornadoes, at 39%; severe cold or winter storms, at 38%; flooding, at 35%; hurricanes, at 29%; earthquakes, at 21%; wildfires, at 17%; droughts, at 11%; and sinkholes, at 8%.
According to drought.com, 87.9% of California is enduring ‘Extreme Drought’ conditions today, but San Diego County isn’t part of it:
The last severe drought peaked in 2014, and it was only after the fact that we found out that San Diego had plenty of water. This year, the governor has urged Californians to voluntarily cut domestic water use by 15%, and more restrictions are likely to follow.
How will it affect the real estate market?
Hopefully it will cause more buyers and sellers to seek out the truth – that San Diego is in better shape than most of the state. There is a very affluent demand for homes here, and water will always be available….at some price. Buyers with bigger and better reasons to move here won’t be deterred, and besides, what’s the alternative? Move to Florida?
It might cause a few more potential sellers to add one more reason to their list of why they should move, but the fear of water drying up won’t be enough to overwhelm the reasons to stay – weather, it’s-more-comfortable-to-stay, don’t-need-to-move, don’t want to go through my stuff, kids-are-here, etc. Maybe some additional inventory hits the market in selected areas, but don’t expect a flood.
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
drp2drp
2020-12-30
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
AmberleePiercy
2020-10-21
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Cecilia Acevedo
2020-10-01
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
WAH08
2020-10-01
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
bethamunce
2019-09-26
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Ann Romanello
2019-04-06
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
zuser20160915180743456
2018-07-03
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
melanielogue
2018-04-30
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
shaunccornell
2018-03-28
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!
