Thanks go out to Jerry Ryan, who publishes a monthly newsletter out of the goodness in his heart – giving us another look at the local stats.
He circled in red (above) and I added a red arrow below that show how the inventory has been so different this year – and it really dropped off in September. Yet sales are actually higher, YTD.
I love his sparkbars too!
Previously, it might have been possible to have a month or two where the SP:LP ratio would be close to 100%. But in 2021, we might have the ratio be over 100% for the entire year!
We had a surge in sales at the end of 2012 and 2020, and both were followed by incredible frenzy conditions the next year. Are we setting up for a big 2022? Here is the latest report on the national picture:
We keep hearing people say that the inventory is rising………..but is it?
Bill’s chart shows how different the San Diego inventory is compared to all the others:
Ten of his 22 metros did have increases in their inventories, month-over-month! But MOST had declines, with San Diego being the leader – by far.
The San Diego inventory plunged almost 19% month-over-month (second only to Albuquerque) and was the decisive #1 metro winner with the 49.3% decline, YoY.
We have half the inventory we had a year ago!
But it’s not affecting sales, because demand is overwhelming. The September sales were outstanding – higher than in recent years, except for the big rally in the second half of last year:
How will this play out next year?
Let’s assume that there is pent-up supply, and there is a surge of listings next year – is there precedent?
Yes, and let’s check the last time the inventory had been in decline. In early 2013, we got a boost of listings, and the waiting demand gobbled them up – and the frenzy was on:
Hopefully it will happen like that again in 2022, and it will be surge-proof. The more listings that come to market, the hotter the frenzy will be.
I’m on a morning call with 150 Compass agents around California. The leader said today that most agents have a 10:1 ratio of buyers to sellers. The demand is there!
But it could be fairly subdued next year, if nobody wants to sell.
Actives and pendings are plunging at about the same speed now.
You can’t buy what’s not for sale!
Today’s NSDCC median list price is $4,397,500, which is 16% higher than it was on June 7th – which is about when the frenzy seemed to lose some steam. As long as the inventory is so thin, the few homeowners willing to sell are going to enjoy a pricing bonanza!
A year ago, there were 605 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and 470 pendings.
Today, there are 274 actives, and 278 pendings (which is -55% and -41% YoY).
Buyers didn’t hit the brakes last year when we had twice as many actives, so it will probably take a 100-year flood of inventory to crash the market. It’s more likely to go the other way, and the inventory will likely remain low in 2022…..with more fixers than creampuffs!
Most of the country is experiencing increases in their inventory, but not San Diego. This is why I think our frenzy could – and should – be as hot today as it was last year, but there just aren’t enough homes for sale.
The count of active listings is half of what it was last year at this time!
In spite of our inventory dropping, San Diego sales are hanging tough – down only 11.1%:
From Bill at CR:
Man, what a great time to sell. Here is Bill’s full article:
There is nothing normal about the number of homes for sale today:
||# of NSDCC Active Listings
||# of Pendings
|Oct 8, 2018
|Oct 7, 2019
|Oct 5, 2020
|Oct 4, 2021
We have almost the same number of pendings as we did when there were 3x as many actives!
Another week with more new pendings than new listings (48 vs 43).
The two categories that have been blistering hot:
||NSDCC Active Listings
||# of Pendings
|$1M to $1.5M
|$1.5M to $2.0M
When a healthy market has been 2:1 actives vs. pendings, these numbers are staggering!
Over the last week there were 37 new listings….and 50 new pendings.
Even though demand remains strong, we’re just going to fade into the holidays – only because there aren’t enough new listings coming to market!
There were 48 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad this week, and 48 new pendings!
The pendings are evenly divided too:
NSDCC Pending Listings:
0 – $1,000,000: 7
$1.0M – $1.5M: 78
$1.5M – $2.0M: 77
$2.0M – $3.0M: 78
The number of pendings has increased in each of the last four weeks, and by next week could exceed the number of active listings again. The rest of the year should be exciting!