Inventory Watch

This year’s inventory is looking a lot like last year, with a few more listings hanging around unsold.

NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1 through Feb 20

2023: 355

2024: 395

How’s the pricing? Here are the weekly quartiles for 2023 and 2024:

It looks like the market is settling in for a ride that’s similar to the one we had in 2023!

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Inventory Watch

In the last week, the number of NSDCC active listings shot up by 12%, and the number of pendings dropped 10%, which at first glance looked like a bunch of escrows blew up.

But it was more due to the number of closings. There were 35 escrows that closed last week, bringing the February total up to 83 already. Last February there were only 112 closings, which we should easily beat.

NSDCC sales are 14% higher than last year, and we’ll have a few more late-reporters to add this year:

NSDCC Listings and Sales Between Jan 1 – Feb 15

Here are Bill’s latest graphs. It’s incredible to see the comparison to 2019 – the active inventory was down 57.7% but sales were only off -19.5%:

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Inventory Watch

The Super Bowl is done, and the 2024 Selling Season is under way!

Judging by the graph above, this year will be as hot as last year!

Look at the consistency this year too:

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Whenever we have 125 new listings, and 99 are going into escrow too, it’s about as healthy as it gets.

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Inventory Watch

The number of January listings has blown by everyone’s expectations, and is now up to 229, which is 12% higher than in January, 2023 – and the count isn’t done yet.

All we know for sure is that more sellers wanted to get an early start on moving this year.

If that tendency holds up over the next few months and the YoY inventory grows by 10% or more each month, the market could get more frenzied, because the buyers are responding too. The number of pendings is 14% higher than they were last year at this time!

My theory is that 10% more inventory is easily absorbed and really won’t be that noticeable. It’s when the inventory is growing at 20% or more that buyers may wonder what’s going on – and be tempted to pause, and/or get more picky, if that is possible.

Congratulations to Joe – the winner of the four Padres tickets!

Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings

142 Anne M

157 Skip

160 doughboy

170 Dale

174 SurfRider

176 LifeIsRadInCbad

180 Kingside

188 Stephanie R.

189 Chris

190 Tom

192 Sara G.

196 Derek

200 Curtis

208 Rob Dawg

210 Bode

213 Shadash

217 Nick

222 Majeed

223 Joe

The way it’s going, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot, or hotter than it was last year!

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Inventory Watch

In our previous reading last Monday, the pendings count had jumped 20% – and this week it popped another 15%! Today’s actual count of 140 pendings is now ahead of last year, which had an early start to the selling season!  At this point, this year looks the same!

This morning’s count of January listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad is 204, which means Joe has the contest for Padres tickets in the bag. Having slightly more inventory than last year should mean more sales!

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Inventory Watch

During the frenzy, the market had waves of new pendings happen in the same week or two, as if there is a home-buying karma that sweeps a bunch of buyers into action at the same time. It’s probably more due to them digesting the new listings, and after a couple of weeks of 2024, it appears buyers are acting!

The NSDCC pendings count rose from 102 to 122 this week, a 20% pop!

In the graph above, you can see that last year the market was cooking by mid-February. When the actives and pending are stable, it means that the deals are closing as fast as the new listings are coming on!

Here is the history from the last few years:

2023:

2022:

2021:

2019/2020:

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Inventory Watch

NSDCC Listings, January 1-15

2023: 100

2024: 99

You could say that the 2024 inventory is tracking very closely to last year’s numbers! There will be extras added to this year’s count, so comparatively, we can guess that the 2024 count will be 110-115 or so.

But look at the difference in the graph above.

Last year got off to a fast start as the number of pendings picked up right away….but not this year. The actives are there, but they aren’t flying into escrow like last year.

Our open house had a similar result. lots of attendees, glowing remarks, hints of offers, but we’re not in escrow yet. I only saw a handful of other open houses, but the results looked the same – lots of people milling about, but that’s about it.

A slower start probably means that the inventory is still very thin, which makes it hard to compare. Mortgage rates are about the same as they were last January, so that’s not it – but the rate expectation is way different, with Fed moves expected over the next few months. It could cause buyers to be very deliberate in the early going.

Hopefully, the pendings count will increase over the next few days as the fruits from the weekend are logged. But the actives are surging ahead for now.

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Inventory Watch

There were 50 new listings in the first seven days of last year.

This year, there have been 43 new listings in the first week, but there are late-reporters and those agents who input a new listing later in the month but use the contract date from weeks earlier. It’s not a smart move due to a glitch in the MLS which uses the contract date, not the actual days on the market, when other agents are searching for listings from the last seven days, etc. causing them to miss new listings.

Based on both reasons, the final total for the first seven days will probably be 60-ish, which means we’re off to a good start for those of us who are hoping for additional inventory!

Here are the guesses for the total number of January, 2024 listings submitted so far on the contest for Padres tickets (last January’s total was 205). You are welcome to add or revise your guess in the comment section up to January 15th:

Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings

142 Anne M

157 Skip

160 doughboy

170 Dale

174 SurfRider

176 LifeIsRadInCbad

180 Kingside

188 Stephanie R.

189 Chris

190 Tom

192 Sara G.

200 Curtis

208 Rob Dawg

210 Bode

213 Shadash

217 Nick

222 Majeed

223 Joe

The market has fired up quickly – there were lots of people at open houses over the weekend and a new listing that interested my buyers already had three offers on it since hitting the market last week. Interestingly, I went by three hot new listings that were NOT doing open house. Get Good Help!

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Inventory Watch, 2024

The NSDCC inventory is starting off the new year with virtually identical numbers as it did in 2023!

The big difference?

Last year everyone thought we had a recession coming, and this year it’s all blue sky ahead.

At the beginning of 2023, the 30-year mortgage rate was 6.48% and all we heard was that existing homeowners would never sell because their existing 3% rate had them ‘locked-in’.

Today’s rate is 6.61% and everyone says that the lower rates will free up inventory this year!

Let’s examine the statistics that will give us a better feel for the future of home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad. These are the three areas that are full of the homogeneous tract homes that give us a better read on the trends – they had 62% of the NSDCC sales last year:

To say that we’re in a mature market controlled by baby boomers is putting it lightly. The ‘locked-in’ effect has been around for a long time for whatever reason – but mostly because we live in paradise:

Carlsbad, CA

Encinitas,CA

Carmel Valley 92130

The vast majority of those who have been in their home since 2016 or longer are ‘locked-in’ because of the price they paid – they aren’t going to pay double or triple what they paid for their current home to just move down the street or around the corner. If they have lived in the same home this long, chances are they will stay to the end – and we’re talking about 80% to 90% of today’s homeowners!

Thankfully, life happens. Death, divorce, and job transfers will keep causing homes to come up for sale.

It will take a 20% YoY surge in NSDCC inventory this year just to match the number of homes for sale in 2022, and I’ll be happy if it is just a 10% increase over last year!

But we have become accustomed to frenzy conditions, and for many it is all they know. The current environment feels somewhat like 2013 again, which was the last time we had a non-covid surge. We were coming off a hot 4Q12, even though rates didn’t change much:

But the market exploded in 2013, just because. I think it’s going to happen again this year, just because.

We’ll find out soon enough – our first listing of the year will hit the market a week from today!

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Inventory Watch

It’s been impressive how strong the pricing has looked towards the end of the year. But if we’re looking at the median list prices, then all we know is that these are the medians of what’s not working…..but at least they aren’t going the other way!

The limited inventory has helped to keep the market stabilized. The total number of NSDCC houses for sale in 2023 was only 2,531 for the year, which was 17% lower than last year and 47% lower than 2019. Yet sales were only down 15%  from 2022, and -38% from 2019.

Next year should be equally exciting, either because the inventory stays ultra-low and we gawk at the fight over too few goods, or because there is a 10% to 20% surge in listings that will bring out more demand!

Plus lower rates – wow, it’s going to be one heck of a year. I could not be more optimistic!

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