We had 1,782 new listings of houses and condos last month, in a county of 3.3 million people? And only 1,332 active listings (I believe that is the count at the end of the month). Look at Phoenix and Las Vegas for comparison, where they have 2x and 3x as many listings.
If we get a surge of inventory, it would just make the frenzy conditions even hotter!
Thanks Bill!
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look-at-local-housing-markets-424
The NSDCC 2022 inventory is 30% behind the count from last year at this time, and that number was 20% below the previous year. Potential sellers – name your price!
One of the primary questions? How are the kids going to be able to buy a home?
If prices just stay at this level, it will be near impossible for local kids to save the down payment and afford the monthly nut when starter homes are selling for around $1,200,000.
Plus, there is the incentive now for seniors to hang onto the family homestead and then let one of the kids live there so they can keep the old property-tax basis. For kids who never left, they will live in the same home their whole life!
But if you have more than one kid, then what? It used to mean selling the family homestead and dividing up the loot, but today’s heirs probably own their current home too. Tomorrow’s heirs? Not so sure, which means more homes will stay in the family when the parents die, and fewer homes will be coming to market.
The tight inventory could get worse.
Because the majority of homes being purchased today are ‘forever’ homes and will be owner-occupied for generations, it narrows down the list of probable sellers to those who have owned their home for longer than 12 years, AND are selling for one of the Big Three reasons (death, divorce, and job transfer).
And the baby boomers are going to decide the outcome.
Baby boomers are:
There may be a boomer-liquidation surge in the future, but it will be at least 5-10 years before it could happen on a larger scale. In the meantime, seniors will live comfortably in their old family homesteads, and probably be joined by as many kids as can fit.
The seniors who do move will be from these categories:
Some may have to move out-of-town, but at least their pockets will be full of cash.
Once they take care of themselves, boomers are going to focus on their kids – many of whom are still hanging around the house!
It means the entry-level markets will be full of younger buyers backed by affluent parents and grandparents – and they are loaded. There is also the multi-gen buyers who are looking for larger homes that will suit the whole family – or they will buy the one-story home for the folks, and then leave the old house for the kids.
There really should be an extra premium available for those home types when they sell, given the demand. If you are going to sell one of those (entry-level, multi-gen, or one-story), then list your home with me, and I’ll make sure you get all you deserve!
The buyers who want to spend $1,700,000 to $2,000,000 in Carlsbad today only have four choices:
Alba has an odd backyard, Merganser backs to Batiquitos Dr. and is next to the gate, and Packard is a single-story that should be going higher in price.
For those who need a house, it is perilous.
There will be others, but will the supply EVER get to healthy levels again? Buyers are worried that it won’t.
Are we going to get a surge of new listings in the coming months?
Our recent history doesn’t suggest it – the San Diego inventory has been the worst around (thanks Bill):
But let’s consider what used to be normal, and see if we can connect the dots.
NSDCC Number of Listings Between January 1st and June 30th:
| Year | |
| 2017 | |
| 2018 | |
| 2019 | |
| 2020 | |
| 2021 |
The first-half inventory really hit a groove at 2,700 listings for three years straight. But then the impact from covid struck in 2020, and the listings count was 15% lower than the previous years.
But then 2021 was even worse!
If you remember last year, we did a contest for readers to guess the number of listings in January, and everyone came in much higher than the actual listing count. The final total was 288 (Derek did get tickets).
As it turned out, it was an omen for the inventory all year.
Let’s do it again! To keep an eye on what will be the #1 predictor on how the spring season will roll out, let’s guess the number of NSDCC listings this month!
The recent history is below – leave your guess in the comment section.
| Year | |
| 2017 | |
| 2018 | |
| 2019 | |
| 2020 | |
| 2021 |
If there is a baseball season, the winner will get four tickets to a Padres game! They aren’t front row, but they are pretty good seats:
There may only be a dozen or so guesses, so take part – your chances of winning are good!
My general sense of what will happen, based on the number of January listings:
450 or more listings: Frenzy will be over within 30 days.
400-450 listings: Causes a wait-and-see with some buyers.
300-400 listings: Super-charges the environment to ultra-frenzy conditions!
Under 300 listings: Painfully slow opening to the selling season.
Give it a guess!
Last week was the gap week for people returning from the holidays.
It’s GO time now!
To help describe today’s market conditions, here are two notes on today’s inventory:
The NSDCC median list price today is $5,495,000.
There are 22 houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad priced under $2,000,000.
Wow!
The NSDCC median sales price in 2021 was $1,900,000.
The NSDCC median sales price in the fourth quarter of 2021 was $1,996,875.
Today’s NSDCC median list price is a mind-boggling $5,972,500!
To better reflect the rapidly-escalating home prices between La Jolla and Carlsbad, I’ve combined the two lower price ranges and added the $4,000,000+ category.
Here are the inventory counts by price range to begin the year:
The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:
| Date | ||||
| Jan 3, 2022 |
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:
| Date | ||||
| Jan 3, 2022 |
The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:
| Date | ||||
| Jan 3, 2022 |
The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:
| Date | ||||
| Jan 3, 2022 |
The $4,000,000+ Market:
| Date | ||||
| Jan 3, 2022 |
NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings
| Week | ||||
| Jan 3, 2022 |
For those who are interested in the history of the Inventory Watch, there are 2 ways to access the data at the top of the blog page:
Here we go!
It is appropriate that the last reading of 2021 shows more pendings than actives (170 vs 164)!
How does the last week of the year compare to previous years? I didn’t split off the $3,000,000+ category until 2019, but you get the idea here:
NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad) Number of Active Listings:
| Price Range | ||||
| $0 – $1.0M | ||||
| $1.0M – $1.5M | ||||
| $1.5M – $2.0M | ||||
| $2.0M – $3.0M | ||||
| $3.0M+ |
A monumental shift in just three years!
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NSDCC tidbits as we roll into Christmas:
Pricing will feel significantly higher next year!
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Are you looking ahead to the Frenzy of 2022?
It’s looking a little somber right now.
Buyers will be scouring the market early, in hopes of getting a fast start in January.
But we only have 43% of the active listings today that we had last year at this time, which means the sellers who list their home for sale over the next 30-45 days will have the market to themselves.
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
