The graph above should give us all some guidance on where the 2024 market is going.
Sales are hanging tough though. There have been 117 NSDCC closings this month, so we should get close to the 165 sales we had last April. The median sales price is running +5% above last April too.
It looks like we’ve found the number.
Because the inventory was so low last year, I thought the market could easily handle a 10% to 20% increase in active listings this year.
But now the number of actives is +30% YoY, and the pendings aren’t increasing in a similar fashion. If sales don’t pick up, it means a glut of unsold listings could be forming over the next 1-2 months.
Will buyers care?
Probably not, because they have shrugged off worse (higher prices and rates). But once a listing goes unsold for 2-3 weeks, it will take something drastic to get the buyers’ attention again.
The number of active listings is a reflection of how many new listings are coming on the market vs. how many are going off the market at the same time.
While today’s number of actives is 29% higher than it was last year at this time, let’s note that the 2023 inventory was a virtual flat line where they were selling as fast as they were coming on the market.
Any reason for alarm today?
Not really – more actives means there are more homes to choose from, which should mean more sales as long as the number of unsold listings doesn’t start looking like a glut and spook the buyer pool (apparently, the +29% is acceptable). So far, so good in 2024.
This year looks pretty strong! If you house isn’t selling, it ain’t the market’s fault.
The potential surge in new listings has stalled, and for the second week in a row we had more new pendings than listings! But something has to give, doesn’t it?
The pricing continues to levitate, at the cost of sales:
NSDCC Monthly Detached-Home Sales, March
There will be the usual late-reporters that get this year’s number of sales up to 155-160 or so, and this trend should continue for the next 2-3 month where just the deserving homes get sold. It would seem to be inevitable that the number of active (unsold) listings start to pile up by the end of summer. Get ‘er done!
Just when I thought having more active listings might slow the market, the buyers responded!
There were more new pendings (46) this week than we’ve had all year, and they out-numbered the new listings count of 45 – which hasn’t happened in months!
Wow!
The active inventory is increasing!
We’ve been hoping to identify the perfect amount of additional homes for sale that would create more sales without scaring buyers back to the sidelines with shock and awe. I have guessed that the demand would digest a 10% to 15% increase, and maybe 20% without much difficulty. Now the number of active listings are 34% above last year, and the pendings have been flat for the last couple of weeks.
Likely outcomes:
Thankfully, the sellers aren’t going to give them away so it will feel like a standoff. Only the buyers and sellers with high motivations will dare to transact when the temptation to wait longer is getting stronger.
If it gets better/different later, it won’t be by much. There might be fewer homes selling over list, and more deals for the buyers who can dig them out.
But that’s it.
The NSDCC houses for sale have had a median list price over $4,000,000 all year.
How is the upper half of the market performing?
While the $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 market has seen continued upward pressure on pricing (click below on more…), the $4,000,000+ list pricing has been correcting – and it’s working!
The average LP/sf has dropped 10% since January, and the number of active (unsold) listings is trickling up. But the average days-on-market is settling down, and the number of pendings look great. There have already been 42 NSDCC sales closed this year over $4,000,000!
Fun fact:
NSDCC Active Listings Priced Over $10,000,000 Today: 46
NSDCC Listings Sold Over $10,000,000, Last 12 Months: 43
It is a very affluent marketplace!
There have been 12% more listings YoY in the first two months of 2024, and buyers are responding!
Closed SFR sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad are +20% YoY in the first two months of the year!
It’s why the number of active listings (red line above) isn’t exploding, AND there have been 88 new pendings in the last two weeks – which is about twice the pace we had in January. The median LP of those 88 pendings is $2.5 million, which means pricing will be at least +10% higher than last year. Wow!
This year’s inventory is looking a lot like last year, with a few more listings hanging around unsold.
NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1 through Feb 20
2023: 355
2024: 395
How’s the pricing? Here are the weekly quartiles for 2023 and 2024:
It looks like the market is settling in for a ride that’s similar to the one we had in 2023!
In the last week, the number of NSDCC active listings shot up by 12%, and the number of pendings dropped 10%, which at first glance looked like a bunch of escrows blew up.
But it was more due to the number of closings. There were 35 escrows that closed last week, bringing the February total up to 83 already. Last February there were only 112 closings, which we should easily beat.
NSDCC sales are 14% higher than last year, and we’ll have a few more late-reporters to add this year:
NSDCC Listings and Sales Between Jan 1 – Feb 15
Here are Bill’s latest graphs. It’s incredible to see the comparison to 2019 – the active inventory was down 57.7% but sales were only off -19.5%:
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