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Inventory Watch

We are getting close to a remarkable event – having more pendings than actives.

Here’s the current scorecard – 359 Actives, and 338 Pendings!

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Avg $$/sf
Pending Listings
Avg $$/sf
0-$1.0M
6
$424/sf
33
$640/sf
$1.0M – $1.5M
22
$677/sf
70
$605/sf
$1.5M – $2.0M
45
$686/sf
87
$621/sf
$2.0-$3.0M
65
$871/sf
68
$759/sf
$3.0M+
224
$1,404/sf
87
$1,020/sf

WE HAVE MORE PENDINGS THAN ACTIVES IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER-$3,000,000!

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Inventory Watch & Contest Winner!

We are up to 276 new NSDCC listings in January, which is 22% under last year’s count of 353 listings!

Here are the guesses – our winner is lifeisradincbad, congratulations!

234 – REOAndre

270 – lifeisradincbad

289 – Derek

305 – Joe

311 – Old Man

318 – Doughboy

325 – Haile

333 – Kris K.

347 – Big Crazy

353 – TominLaCosta

383 – Skip

387 – Amy

396 – Curtis (distance to centerfield wall at Petco!)

404 – Majeed

420 – BigDave

422 – Colleen

425 – Rob Dawg

432 – Tim

440 – Ben

If the total keeps climbing and gets up to 280, Derek will win the same prize – tickets to a Padres game and the U.S. Open.  The slower start is probably due to the covid/nothing-else-to-buy/waiting-for-Prop-19 combo, all of which might open up a little in the coming weeks.

Last year at this time we had 222 active NSDCC listings priced under $2,000,000.  Today we have 77!

 

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Inventory Watch

We are up to 266new NSDCC listings for January, and we’ll take the final count next Monday to see if we have any other late-reporters.  Getting close to last year’s count of 353 listings is unlikely – we are currently 25% under last year’s count.

Here are the guesses – it looks like lifeisradincbad has the contest wrapped up:

234 – REOAndre

270 – lifeisradincbad

289 – Derek

305 – Joe

The total numbers of actives and pendings is getting closer together. We currently have 365 active NSDCC listings, and 316 pendings! Last year at this time we had 661 actives, and 265 pendings.

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Inventory Watch

Even though it looks like a record-low inventory for January (251 NSDCC listings so far), the number of pendings increased by 9% in the last week – buyers will not be denied!

I don’t think that the numbers of actives and pendings have ever been this close:

NSDCC Actives: 367

NSDCCC Pendings: 306

The action is weighed on the lower-end:

NSDCC Actives Median List Price: $3,950,000

NSDCC Pendings Median List Price: $1,895,000

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January Inventory By Area

Monday’s breeze

We are only able to sell what’s for sale, so the direction of the frenzy depends on inventory.

If we get a surge of inventory, then sales will increase.

If we don’t get a surge of inventory, then bidding wars and prices go crazy.

We saw the differences here where the inventory shortage under $1,500,000 is particularly acute.

When looking at inventory by area, it’s the same thing.  We are comparing to non-Covid years and this month isn’t done yet, but you can see below that the number of houses coming on the market is well under what it’s been in the past:

January Total SFR Listings By Area

Year
Carlsbad
Encinitas
Carmel Valley
Totals
2017
123
63
54
240
2018
114
75
50
239
2019
118
69
60
247
2020
101
56
45
202
2021 MTD
54
40
29
123

We have 123 listings so far this month and we might get up to 150 by Sunday – but even that will be 25% under last year’s count at a time when we probably have twice as many buyers in the hunt.

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Inventory Watch

We’ve only had 193 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad this year, which is still running about 20% behind the pre-Covid count last January.  Undoubtedly, there are still sellers that are wary of the risk of opening their home to strangers, but it could also be the backup in lower-priced but desirable areas to which many Californians are moving.

From a realtor in Austin, Texas:

Here on the ground, I can confirm the extreme buyer demand in Austin. Most properties are currently seeing 30-60+ offers with many homes selling $100,000+ above the list price in just 24-48 hours. Inventory is at near zero levels in many neighborhoods and suburbs.

For those potential sellers who are nervous about allowing Covid into your house, here’s my proposition.  Stay in a hotel for the weekend, and I’ll sell your house by Sunday night and have the scrub-down crew sanitize before you come back.  As for where to move…..go where everyone else isn’t!

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January Inventory Mix

We can endure a slight and gradual reduction of inventory in the higher-end market, where there will always be hundreds of choices available and the number of buyers are limited, relatively. But the squeeze on the lower-end is getting worse:

NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1-21

Year
Total # of Listings
Under $1.5M
Over $1.5M
% Over $1.5M
2017
282
140
144
51%
2018
300
130
171
57%
2019
282
131
152
54%
2020
230
83
150
65%
2021
172
52
123
72%
2020 vs 2021 YoY diff
-25%
-37%
-18%
+11%

Not only has there been just 52 new listings priced under $1,500,000 in 2021, but today there are only 17 of them that are actively for sale. In an area with 300,000+ people!

Inventory By Area

What’s it like being a home buyer today? It’s a bonanza if you are in the multiple-millions category – there are hundreds of choices! If you want to stay under $1,500,000, the inventory looks bleak:

NSDCC Active Inventory

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives Under $1.5M
Actives Over $1.5M
Overall Median List Price
Cardiff
92007
1
11
$2,895,000
NW Carlsbad
92008
4
10
$1,872,000
SE Carlsbad
92009
7
9
$1,594,000
NE Carlsbad
92010
2
0
$842,000
SW Carlsbad
92011
5
2
$1,149,000
Carmel Vly
92130
2
21
$3,450,000
Del Mar
92014
0
42
$5,423,000
Encinitas
92024
6
34
$2,737,000
La Jolla
92037
3
95
$4,245,000
RSF
92067
1
100
$5,295,000
Solana Bch
92075
0
12
$5,075,000
NSDCC
All Above
31
336
$3,995,000

Should the lower-end buyers be discouraged? No! There are 92 pending sales listed under $1,500,000 – they just sell fast. The lower-priced you are, the more tuned up you have to be to win a bidding war.

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Inventory Watch

Custom mirror/rock wall combo!

Contest update:

We’ve only had 136 new NSDCC listings this month (including the Coming Soons), so matching last year’s count of 353 listings in January looks unlikely.  Those with the lower guesses are looking good:

234 – REOAndre

270 – lifeisradincbad

289 – Derek

305 – Joe

311 – Old Man

318 – Doughboy

325 – Haile

333 – Kris K.

347 – Big Crazy

353 – TominLaCosta

What’s not looking good is the idea that buyers will have plenty of choices this spring!

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Inventory Watch

The contest for guessing the number of listings in January is now closed.  We are running about 20% behind last January’s count, so the few sellers who are willing to brave the early-2021 market will do nicely.

We had 31 showings and five offers on our new listing over the weekend, and three of them were willing to pay $90,000 over list!

If you are the kind of buyer who wants to use logic and common sense – and tie your offer price to the comps – well, this isn’t the market for you.  Pay tomorrow’s prices, today!

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