by Jim the Realtor | Mar 27, 2023 | Frenzy, Inventory, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Why You Should List With Jim |
Actives = green, Pendings = blue
Last week, a reader suggested that we highlight the Under-$3,000,000 market.
It is astonishing that in an area of 300,000 people, there are fewer than 100 houses for sale priced under $3,000,000 (and none under $1,195,000).
Our standard for a healthy market is a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings, and today it’s under 1:1….there are more pendings than actives!
The Under-$3,000,000 market is doing great, and if it weren’t for the buzz around higher rates and the uber-frenzy at the start of 2022, we’d be on our merry way through the spring selling season.
But last year’s first quarter was NOT normal:
If someone you know is thinking of selling their home, tell them to go ahead – the market is fine.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 20, 2023 | Inventory |
Until there is a significant increase in inventory, we won’t know how the current market conditions are affecting the demand, if at all. I thought we’d get off to a sluggish start, but this is shockingly low:
Total NSDCC Detached-Home Listings, First 13 Readings of the Year
2018: 1,067
2019: 1,110
2020: 932
2021: 670
2022: 545
2023: 431
This is how the new listings look on a weekly basis:
Mortgae rates have improved considerably, and now buyers can get a rate in the fives, instead of the sevens, which sounds attractive. But if there aren’t enough quality listings, who cares?
Lower rates should mean that buyers can get a little more for their money, but sellers want to squeeze some of that benefit too:
More listings are needed – let’s go sellers!
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 13, 2023 | Inventory |
The 10-year yield has dropped 0.5% since Thursday, which means today’s mortgage rates will probably be the low point of the rest of the year. If the CPI comes out hot tomorrow, the mortgage-rate market will shrug off the banking collapse and get back to rising.
Call it a one-day reprieve!
Buyers usually need to have a property under contract to lock their rate. If you have a lender who allows you to ‘lock and shop’, then today would be a good day to lock (hoping that a few lenders reflect the lower bond yields in their mortgage rates today).
NSDCC Actives & Pendings History, Mid-March:
March 11, 2019: 870 Actives, 284 Pendings
March 16, 2020: 698 Actives, 329 Pendings
March 15, 2021: 332 Actives, 333 Pendings
March 14, 2022: 195 Actives, 196 Pendings
March 13, 2023: 274 Actives, 154 Pendings
Plenty of room for more listings!
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 6, 2023 | Inventory |
Do higher rates affect the lower-end markets more? Or are the lower-end buyers rushing to beat higher rates later this year? Or is it all about price?
The NSDCC market under $3,000,000 looks very healthy. The actives-to-pendings ratio is almost 1:1, and there is only a 6.5% gap between their LP-per-sf stats:
The higher-end is doing what it usually does – price high and wait. Their gaps are bubbly (3.6:1, 23%). Buyers in the upper price points should be very cautious – get good help!
JtR Listings:
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 27, 2023 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market |
We are two months into 2023!
Here’s how the weekly new listings compare with previous years – inventory is worse than ever:
As a result, the list-pricing looks like it is holding up:
Here’s how it wrapped up last year:
The high-quality homes that hit the market in March should reveal the underlying frenzy conditions.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 22, 2023 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
Remember when the inventory tanked in 2020 when everyone was afraid of catching the bug?
Once the pandemic was over, we’d get back to the regular flow of homes for sale, wouldn’t we?
But the intensity seemed to increase as time went on, finally spinning out of control when mortgage rates went up. The resulting debris field is causing fewer people to want, or need, to sell.
For most, staying put seems like the best option, at least for now.
Buyers can probably endure another year on the lease. But potential sellers are getting closer and closer to being too old to move. If there isn’t a clear path to living for another 5-10 years (and hopefully longer) in your new town, you’re probably going to decide to live it out where you are.
The NSDCC YoY change in January was only -17%, so only half as bad as San Diego in general. But the first 15 days of February are -20% YoY, so the local inventory isn’t exactly getting better.
The drop from 2019 is 55%!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 20, 2023 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market |
As you can tell in the graph above, there hasn’t been a flood of inventory (yet), and the number of pendings is rising steadily. All of the frenzy conditions are in place this year, just like they were since the pandemic broke out and inventory plunged.
The casual observers will struggle to notice, however.
With so few homes for sale, it won’t be as obvious how hot the market is…or could be!
NSDCC Number of Listings Between Jan 1 and Feb 15
| Year |
Number of Listings |
Median List Price |
| 2019 |
625 |
$1,650,000 |
| 2020 |
563 |
$1,790,000 |
| 2021 |
449 |
$1,898,000 |
| 2022 |
341 |
$2,575,000 |
| 2023 |
278 |
$2,699,000 |
When is the best time to sell? When no one else is!
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 13, 2023 | Inventory |
Look at how the detached-home market between La Jolla and Carlsbad has started in 2023:
NSDCC January Sales: 96
I had given up all hope of hitting 100 sales in January, but it is within sight now.
NSDCC January Listings: 182
A few more than expected which is fantastic – we NEED more homes to sell.
NSDCC Active Listings: 265 (ten fewer than last week!)
No flood yet, and none expected.
NSDCC Pending Listings: 150 (15% higher than last week)
The demand appears to be strong enough, and the average DOM has dropped in all categories:
The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 2, 2023 |
22 |
$719/sf |
75 |
15 |
| Jan 9 |
26 |
$687/sf |
50 |
14 |
| Jan 16 |
23 |
$701/sf |
52 |
20 |
| Jan 23 |
25 |
$751/sf |
60 |
21 |
| Jan 30 |
23 |
$788/sf |
45 |
25 |
| Feb 6 |
18 |
$750/sf |
59 |
24 |
| Feb 13 |
18 |
$770/sf |
48 |
26 |
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 2, 2023 |
45 |
$809/sf |
60 |
18 |
| Jan 9 |
55 |
$828/sf |
53 |
19 |
| Jan 16 |
46 |
$838/sf |
53 |
30 |
| Jan 23 |
43 |
$793/sf |
52 |
31 |
| Jan 30 |
40 |
$778/sf |
54 |
34 |
| Feb 6 |
42 |
$814/sf |
46 |
30 |
| Feb 13 |
35 |
$823/sf |
51 |
39 |
The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 2, 2023 |
52 |
$869/sf |
69 |
30 |
| Jan 9 |
57 |
$940/sf |
66 |
31 |
| Jan 16 |
50 |
$948/sf |
61 |
36 |
| Jan 23 |
51 |
$949/sf |
58 |
35 |
| Jan 30 |
54 |
$964/sf |
55 |
34 |
| Feb 6 |
60 |
$930/sf |
51 |
42 |
| Feb 13 |
51 |
$1,038/sf |
52 |
47 |
The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 2, 2023 |
29 |
$1,236/sf |
85 |
6 |
| Jan 9 |
29 |
$1,180/sf |
80 |
5 |
| Jan 16 |
31 |
$1,196/sf |
73 |
8 |
| Jan 23 |
33 |
$1,201/sf |
71 |
7 |
| Jan 30 |
37 |
$1,218/sf |
70 |
6 |
| Feb 6 |
34 |
$1,236/sf |
75 |
12 |
| Feb 13 |
43 |
$1,333/sf |
68 |
11 |
The $4,000,000+ Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
| Jan 2, 2023 |
121 |
$1,744/sf |
126 |
21 |
| Jan 9 |
119 |
$1,716/sf |
123 |
20 |
| Jan 16 |
120 |
$1,761/sf |
121 |
26 |
| Jan 23 |
122 |
$1,707/sf |
119 |
27 |
| Jan 30 |
120 |
$1,680/sf |
121 |
30 |
| Feb 6 |
125 |
$1,714/sf |
118 |
28 |
| Feb 13 |
121 |
$1,750/sf |
116 |
32 |
NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings
| Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Actives |
Total Pendings |
| Jan 2, 2023 |
11 |
6 |
263 |
89 |
| Jan 9 |
36 |
15 |
277 |
88 |
| Jan 16 |
36 |
34 |
266 |
114 |
| Jan 23 |
36 |
22 |
269 |
116 |
| Jan 30 |
32 |
25 |
272 |
123 |
| Feb 6 |
46 |
33 |
275 |
131 |
| Feb 13 |
30 |
35 |
265 |
150 |
NSDCC Weekly LP Quartiles
| Week |
1st Quartile |
2nd Quartile (Median LP) |
3rd Quartile |
| Jan 2, 2023 |
$2,095,000 |
$3,695,000 |
$5,995,000 |
| Jan 9 |
$1,990,000 |
$3,495,000 |
$5,775,000 |
| Jan 16 |
$2,000,000 |
$3,574,000 |
$5,995,000 |
| Jan 23 |
$2,099,000 |
$3,595,000 |
$5,999,000 |
| Jan 30 |
$2,195,000 |
$3,525,000 |
$5,942,000 |
| Feb 6 |
$2,195,000 |
$3,598,000 |
$6,845,000 |
| Feb 13 |
$2,300,000 |
$3,795,000 |
$6,495,000 |
For previous years, click here:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/category/inventory/
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 6, 2023 | Inventory |
The new listings are trickling in but no flood yet – and it’s never been so unlikely that a flood is coming.
There are a few more active listings sitting around unsold, but last year was unusual in how fast homes were selling this early in the season. Today’s buyers are still in shellshock over how few choices there are available (and how high the prices are), so it may take a few weeks before the frenzy is obvious to civilians:
Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad
| Year |
# of January Listings |
Total Active Listings, First Week of February |
| 2019 |
418 |
792 |
| 2020 |
354 |
661 |
| 2021 |
289 |
371 |
| 2022 |
223 |
179 |
| 2023 |
181 |
275 |
There will be a few more January listings inputted this year, but it probably won’t get to 200 – making it the lowest number of January listings ever. Before the pandemic, we regularly had twice as many listings in January as we will have this year.
The scariest part is that these low-inventory conditions will probably continue for years to come.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 30, 2023 | Inventory |
Thirty days into the new year and I have no concerns about the market – other than the nagging low inventory. As recently as 2019, we had 419 listings in January, and this month we won’t get half that many!
Things are improving on schedule – the actives’ count is growing (needed), and the pendings are up 38%:
NSDCC Active & Pending Listings on Jan 2 and on Jan 30
| Price Range |
NSDCC Actives & Pendings, Jan 2 |
NSDCC Actives & Pendings, Jan 30 |
| 0 – $1.5M |
22/15 |
23/25 |
| $1.5M – $2.0M |
45/18 |
40/34 |
| $2.0M – $3.0M |
52/30 |
54/34 |
| $3.0M – $4.0M |
29/6 |
37/6 |
| $4.0M+ |
121/21 |
120/30 |
| Totals |
263/89 |
272/123 |
For our contest participants, there have been 159 new listings this month. It means our contest should wind up around 180-190 listings, which is a little higher than expected (the median guess was 160).
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