by Jim the Realtor | Mar 17, 2025 | Inventory |
The climb in the number of active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad took a break and only rose by two. Here’s how the actives and pendings compare to the last two years in mid-March:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings, Mid-March
The 25% YoY increase in the number of actives doesn’t seem to bother the buyers!
All that matters is what will the sellers do who are left out of the party? Will they bang the door down with a big price reduction?
Or pack it up and wait for the market to ‘pick up’?
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by Jim the Realtor | Mar 14, 2025 | 2025, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge |
Since October, I’ve been blabbing on and on how there were several reasons why the pent-up supply was finally going to bust loose in 2025.
If you want to sell your house this year, you better get on it.
It’s more than just an isolated or local thing. Look at the stats above – there is a cultural/communal thing where there are more homes for sale everywhere.
The cheerleaders will be bantering about how the locked-in effect is loosening and we’re just getting back to normal. But they will shut up in another couple of months when they don’t know what to make of it.
Even if the total number of listings isn’t much higher than last year (NSDCC total listings = +9% YoY for first two months), more are not selling. The unsold listings will be stacking up by June. Or May. It will probably cause buyers to be more hesitant, and that’s saying a lot because they are already being fairly cautious.
We have four listings to roll out over the next month, and while we would never launch before we’re absolutely ready, I’m encouraging everyone to expedite!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 10, 2025 | Inventory |
It appears that we are experiencing a surge-like event – the NSDCC actives count today is 411.
Last year, the count didn’t hit 400 until mid-May!
In the last three weeks, the total number of pendings has risen by 8, 4, and 4 per week.
You think it’s sluggish now, wait until June!
Get Good Help!
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by Jim the Realtor | Mar 3, 2025 | Inventory
The surge of active listings in January got a boost from last year’s unsolds coming right back on the market. Since then, the flow has moderated and looks somewhat sustainable if it stays at this pace.
It’s fairly easy to describe the NSDCC market today. The lower-end is warm/hot, and the higher-end is not:
:
The higher-end crowd (sellers and agents) want to believe that it just takes longer to sell these days, and they are content to wait it out. After all, they aren’t going to give it away!
It seems like there are enough sales happening under $4,000,000 that buyers aren’t being dangerously affected by more homes on the market. If there was going to be some reaction to additional inventory, you’d think it would be in the more-sensitive Under-$4M buyers.
My prediction of 15% to 20% more inventory hasn’t come true…..yet:
Maybe help is on the way?
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by Jim the Realtor | Feb 24, 2025 | Inventory
I counted 32 NSDCC houses for sale on the Compass private exclusives list that aren’t on the MLS. They aren’t well-organized – just a one-liner list for the whole county – and they are mostly homes being prepared for market, or tenant-occupied, or old listings that are taking a breather. Photos and remarks are optional, and there isn’t any push from management to actually be selling them off-market.
But it they were actively on the market, the NSDCC inventory count today would be 406 which is where I thought we would be by the end of February.
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings Between Jan. 1 and Feb. 20th
2019: 662
2020: 620
2021: 517
2022: 384
2023: 334
2024: 399
2025: 429 (+8% YoY so far)
This year’s count will continue to grow as new listings taken before the 20th keep hitting the open market over the next week or two. There only needs to be 30 more to reach the +15% mark, and if you want to add the private exclusives then we are already there.
Hard to belive that Saturday is March 1st. This is prime selling season!
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by Jim the Realtor | Feb 19, 2025 | Inventory, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim
Thanks for the comments this week!
For some historical perspective, let’s review the recent change in inventory.
Bill Clinton signed the new law in 1997 that allowed sellers to take up to $500,000 in tax-free profits, and it set off a local moving spree that lasted 20+ years. Boomers were at peak family levels, and moving up and down in the same town was reasonable because prices didn’t fluctuate much.
The most frenzied-up years were 2003, and 2021 – both were years when the inventory dipped.
But in 2022 and 2023 the inventory kept declining, for two reasons. Boomers were empty-nesting comfortably, and the rapid rise in mortgage rates thwarted the move-up/move-down homeowners.
It set off a pricing bonanza that has limited the buyer pool to only the most affluent. It shows no signs of slowing locally, and it would take a flood of motivated sellers who dump on price for the trend to change.
Local pricing HAS DOUBLED in eight short years!
NSDCC Number of Listings Between January 1 and February 15
Even if the remaining home buyers go on strike, it would take a flood of boomers to give their houses away for pricing to dip, and you don’t see much of that happening.
If pricing just went flat, it would be a dramatic change!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 17, 2025 | Inventory |
I somehow didn’t hit the Publish button on Monday morning!
The pendings are tracking right along where they were during the same time period in each of the last two years – even though there are about 20% more homes for sale today.
It sure makes you think that many home sellers are going to get left behind.
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by Jim the Realtor | Feb 11, 2025 | 2025, Inventory, Market Conditions, Market Surge
Bill provides a ton of relevant data and it helps show how the real estate trends reflect the human condition – the same things are happening everywhere:
I’ve been thinking that there will be 15% to 20% more inventory this year, but so far the flow has been subdued between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
NSDCC January Listings:
2024: 242
2025: 251
But Bill has the San Diego YoY inventory change at +12.3%.
The Active Inventory shows the real trend because it reflects if homes are selling or not.
The higher-end is where it’s more stagnant, and with today’s NSDCC median list price being $4,399,000, the Active Inventory will be stacking up quickly.
Bill already has the current SD Active Inventory at +28.8% YoY!
Is the demand picking up the slack? Will more homes for sale mean more sales, like our head cheerleader Lawrence Yun suggests? Hmmm no, at least not yet:
https://open.substack.com/pub/calculatedrisk/p/2nd-look-at-local-housing-markets-586
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Zillow shows that the fever this year isn’t quite what it has been.
It’s a simplistic graph, but it shows we’re just barely above a neutral market:
Just when mortgage rates have improved slightly and we’re getting into the prime season, it seems like every new listing is $2,000,000+ and very few are really prime properties – which will be the main reason we could get off to a sluggish start. Buyers want the good stuff!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 10, 2025 | Inventory |
Since October, I’ve been warning about a surge of inventory coming in 2025.
It won’t be that obvious to the casual observers, and many won’t notice at all. Even the early statistics and/or the actual transacting may mask it somewhat because, who knows? There might be enough demand to pick it all up!
Instead of lathering on about the theory, let’s review an actual real-life example from this weekend.
There was a Compass Private Exclusive that caught the interest of my buyers. On Wednesday we made arrangements to meet there on Sunday for a tour.
By the time we got to Sunday, THREE other new listings hit the open market nearby, and then the Private Exclusive went onto the MLS too (this week I’ll give an 2025 update on the Compass PEs).
We toured all four.
Here’s what we learned:
The environment changed dramatically on August 17th, and more buyers are motivated to attend open houses rather than hire a buyer-agent. But three of the four didn’t do open house, and the one that did sent an assistant who wasn’t try to sell it – they were just there wasting an afternoon at a stranger’s house.
Only two of the four were staged. In a competitive environment, the two that weren’t staged got eliminated quickly. Not only was it harder to imagine what could be done with those, but it also sends the sub-conscious message that the seller and listing agent aren’t that motivated to sell.
If the seller and listing agent don’t take a vested interest in selling the house, then they are relying on the buyer-agent to get the job done. Don’t be surprised if the offers, if any, come in low!
How experienced and competent are those buyer-agents at talking the $1,000/sf talk?
There were 50 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad in the past week, and 34 new pendings so somebody is getting lucky. But at what price? The climb in inventory may pause occasionally, but it should be trending steadily higher in the coming weeks. Unless sellers and listing agents are totally prepared for surprises like three new listings nearby and two inches of rain!
Oh, and there will be doomer talk too:
Get Good Help!
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by Jim the Realtor | Feb 3, 2025 | 2025, Contests, Inventory, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim
My predicted surge in inventory is underway – look at the navy-blue line above. There are 363 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad today, and once the Super Bowl is out of the way, we should really get rocking. It should easily reach 400 before the end of the month.
It’s not a bad thing for the sellers who are willing to price attractively – there is still plenty of action. There will just be more this year that don’t sell at all.
NSDCC New Listings In The Last Week: 72 (+8%)
NSDCC New Pendings In The Last Week: 28 (+9%)
Buyers love the additional choices and will continue to be very picky, especially on price.
How did last month measure up?
NSDCC January Sales: 117 (102 last January)
NSDCC January Listings: 243 (242 last January)
Both of those categories should swell by roughly 10% as the late-reporters log in.
The final guesses on the number of NSDCC January listings:
211 – Eddie89
213 – Shadash
216 – regina
246 – Anne M
267 – Surfrider
280 – doughboy
293 – Joe
296 – Tim DeRoche
303 – Tom
307 – Jun
311 – SN
317 – CB Mark
318 – Nick
328 – Majeed
337 – natalie
353 – Derek
355 – Skip
365 – Leo
401 – Dr k
417 – Susie
421 – Giving Cat
Giving Cat (Rob Dawg) will probably endure the same fate as with the Coffee Bet – being correct, just early.
In April, 2009, real estate bloggers did a panel discussion on when the bottom would be, and I guessed December, 2011. Instead, the bottom happened during the very month of our discussion – April, 2009! https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/04/24/coffee-bet-2/
Check those lively comment sections too!
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