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Inventory Watch

I think the Labor Day heat stroke showed up in the stats this week.

We only had 75 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and 70 new pendings, which is about a 20% drop from the last couple of weeks.  Or was it just the usual cooling off? We’ll see next week!

The showings perked up the last few days, and are nearly 30% higher than last year:

The number of active listings should keep dropping as the year winds down – we have probably seen the 2020 market peak for number of active listings.  But we could see the pendings count stay in this range for a few more weeks.

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Inventory Watch

We’ve already had 312 closings this month, yet the total number of pendings is the same as it was at the beginning of August – which means we’ll have another big month of closings in September!

Yet we haven’t had a surge of new listings – homeowners are happy where they are…..for now.  Next year should be the most exciting real estate market in the history of the world!  If you are thinking about getting into the business – or if you are a realtor thinking about changing brokerages, do it now and be ready for 2021.

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Inventory Watch

The number of new listings this week reflected some slowdown which is typical this time of year as school gets rolling.  We had 71 new listings between Carlsbad and La Jolla……but we had 82 new pendings!

The lower-end of the market is drying up like a peach seed too.  Here’s are the number of listings in each price range for this week of the year:

NSDCC Active Listings by Price Range

Price Range
2018
2019
2020
$0-$1.0M
117
106
33
$1.0M-$1.5M
211
183
99
$1.5M-$2.0M
171
200
118
$2.0M+
552
545
430

You can understand why buyers are scrambling!

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Inventory Watch – Trickle Up!

In previous years, the action is winding down by mid-August.

Not this year!

We’ve seen more pendings than actives in the lower price ranges. This week it happened for the first time in the $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Pending Listings
Avg LP/sf
$0-$1.0M
28
$533/sf
67
$506/sf
$1.0M-$1.5M
113
$608/sf
158
$518/sf
$1.5M-$2.0M
123
$714/sf
126
$630/sf
$2.0M-$3.0M
137
$823/sf
87
$729/sf

Let’s note the differences.

Last year at this time, we had 199 actives and 79 pendings between $1,500,000 – $2,000,000.

On June 1st, we had 162 actives and 76 pendings.

Now it’s 123 vs. 126!

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Inventory Watch

In the last week, we had 104 new NSDCC listings, and 101 pendings!

The hot action is trickling up.

We’ve had more pendings than actives in the $1.0M – $1.5M range since July 6th, and now the $1.5M – $2.0M range is feeling it too, with a ratio of nearly 1:1 today:

Price Range
# of NSDCC Active Listings
# of Pendings
Avg. LP/sf
$0-$1.0M
39
69
$531/sf
$1.0M – $1.5M
112
154
$559/sf
$1.5M – $2.0M
129
119
$719/sf
$2.0M – $3.0M
143
69
$856/sf
$3.0M+
288
54
$1,186/sf

We’re down to only 689 houses for sale between Carlsbad and La Jolla, which is 33% fewer than in the first week of August last year. The median list price is $2,680,000!

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Inventory Watch

In the last week, we had 92 new NSDCC listings, and 80 pendings!

We should see a bunch of the pendings close escrow this week, and it looks probable that our July sales this year will exceed those from last July (we only need 46 closings this week and there are 475 pendings).  It’s what happens when we have the typical 6-month selling season squeezed into 3-4 months.

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Inventory Watch

Another incredible week as buyers scramble to grab something and get a mortgage rate in the 2s!

We had 106 new listings, and 98 new pendings in the past seven days, leaving us with roughly 30% fewer homes for sale than at the same time last year.

As long as inventory counts are heading downward, there won’t be any relief for buyers – especially those under $1,000,000, where we have 34 active NSDCC listings, and 73 pendings!

(no points)

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Inventory Watch



Combine the covid concerns with the school scramble and record-low rates and we’re having a frenzy that feels similar to the all-timer in 2013 – and we can’t keep enough product on the shelf!

The tight inventory is likely to get worse.

Those who were committed to selling in 2020 have probably gotten their home on the market by now, and those who haven’t will be tempted to wait until next year to see if the pandemic settles down.  But the covid appears to be good for sellers.

This full-blown frenzy has worked its way into the mid-$1,000,000s too:

Price Range
NSDCC Active Listings
Pending Listings
$0 – $1.0M
40
74
$1.0M – $1.5M
127
152

Remember when having two actives for every pending was considered healthy?  Wow!

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