by Jim the Realtor | Jul 22, 2024 | Inventory |
It looks like last week may have been the peak inventory for 2024, just like the same week in 2023 was the peak last year. The difference? There will be more listings that fail to sell this year.
The median list price was over $4,000,000 until April 8th this year, and today it is $3,695,000. It was $3,500,000 last week, which was the low point in 2024 and the third time it was that low this year.
Last year, the median list price was in the mid-to-late $3,000,000s all year and only touched $4,000,000 twice until the end of December. So even though the median list price is substantially lower now than it was in 2023, the inventory is around 23% higher.
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by Jim the Realtor | Jul 15, 2024 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market |
The number of NSDCC active listings blew right through the 500 mark, and the count is now up to 509 unsolds. The number of pendings had stayed above last year’s count primarily because there have been more homes for sale.
But it looks like all the quality homes have been taken now, and pendings’ count started decelerating three weeks ago. There will be very few hot buys listed over the next 4-5 months, so buyers will have to earn it by lowballing the existing inventory if they want to move this year.
My prediction that the political circus would be a big distraction to home sales didn’t include an assassination attempt! But if both candidates make good on their promise to lower the vitriol, it would be good for home sales, especially if mortgage rates keep coming down.
But it will take a massive surge in price reductions this week to create a late-summer rally. It’s going to be too easy for buyers to pack it in for 2024, and hope that next year brings lower prices and rates.
When is the best time to buy? When nobody else is!
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by Jim the Realtor | Jul 8, 2024 | Inventory
It’s looks like we dodged the 500 bullet – there were 496 active listings last week and it appeared we were heading for 510 or more by now. But instead, today’s count is 479 actives, and it’s doubtful there will be any big surge of new listings this late in the game.
The drop in the number of actives wasn’t because a bunch went into escrow.
There were only 37 new pendings, which is about average for a week. Another 28 withdrew or cancelled their listings, suggesting that the cancellation parade should start sooner this year due to the crickets heard wherever a home is just slightly overpriced. If you haven’t had any showings for weeks, it’s easy to blame “the market” and hang it up for now.
Don’t be surprised if we have a load of ‘new’ listings in 2025 – get in and out in the first quarter!
The pricing of the unsolds is following the same trends from last year:
On a side note, here’s a good article with specific examples of cash purchases in Manhattan:
Link to Free Article in the NYT
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by Jim the Realtor | Jul 2, 2024 | 2024, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market
It’s considered normal for a market to have six months’ worth of inventory, where the number of homes for sale this month equals 6x the number of sales last month.
Our market has done better over the last few years, and three months’ worth seems normal now:
Here are the interactive graphs for the last five years, and the last sixteen years!
While we’re at it, here are the graphs for the median sales price per square footage. Carmel Valley (92130) is up 84%, and both Carlsbad and Encinitas have both more than doubled in the last five years. Normal?
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 1, 2024 | Inventory
Of the 496 active listings today, 213 of them are listed over $4,000,000 and 75 of those are listed over $9,000,000. Do those have any impact on buyers and sellers for properties listed under $3,000,000?
Not really, but today there are now 93 homes for sale under $2,000,000, and another 111 priced between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000 – and both are the highest counts of the year.
Listings are stacking up in all price categories!
The demand is still there – there were 38 new pendings this week – and the total number of pendings is still higher than it was last year so the market is working. But more and more buyers are rejecting the pricing of most active listings.
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 24, 2024 | Inventory
There were 78 new NSDCC listings in the last week, the highest total of the year (there were 77 new listings two weeks ago, and the previous high was 67 twice). Sellers keep coming!
The total-pendings count of 192 is the highest number of the year (there was a 191 count in April). So buyers are engaged too, but being very patient.
There is no easy business though. The frenzy is over, and listing agents who expect buyers to jump in their lap will be sorely disappointed. But there is plenty of business for those who can grind it out!
I am changing blog hosts today, so there may be (more) down time. Wish me luck!
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 17, 2024 | Inventory
June is half over, and there have been 74 NSDCC closings so we might get close to last month’s total of 185 sales – though it feels like the market could fade away the rest of the year.
Will sellers adjust?
Probably not – or at least not adjust fast enough. But they might get lucky if the new listings slow down, and leave the OPTs (over-priced turkeys) as the only choice for those buyers who really want to get something done this summer.
Will buyers make low offers?
Sellers can’t count on that, so the likelihood of a summer standoff is pretty good, especially over the next 30 days. No one will panic – heck, summer just started!
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 10, 2024 | Inventory |
The count of active listings is powering skyward, and could be 500+ in the next week or two. There haven’t been more than 500 actives between La Jolla and Carlsbad since before the pandemic, so you can say that the inventory getting back to normal.
But unless pricing turns around, it won’t be be the same “normal” like it was prior to the pandemic.
The median sales price in 2019 was $1,327,250. This year it is $2,350,000.
The median list price today is $3,500,000 today.
The median list price was $4,444,000 when 2024 began. There were only 255 active listings to start the year. The distribution:
NSDCC Active Listings
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 6, 2024 | 2024, Inventory, Market Conditions
Earlier this year, I speculated that the market could endure – and probably snap up – additional inventory, as compared to last year. The 2023 inventory was like the Mohave Desert!
It seemed that 10% to 15% more would be easily digested, and maybe even +20% or +25%.
Bill’s new stats out today suggest how much, is too much:
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 3, 2024 | Inventory
It looks like the home-selling season is losing any momentum it had in March-May when the pendings that closed escrow were being steadily replaced.
You can see that we had a mid-summer spurt of pendings last year, but with the political circus ramping up and buyer-agents being shown the door, I doubt that there will be any big breakout of new pendings for the rest of this year.
But we’re doing better than most!
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