In seven out of the last eight weeks, we’ve had more new pendings than new listings!
This week’s count is 51 new listings, and 92 new pendings!
Could it happen that in 2-3 weeks, we could have more pendings than actives? Looks like it!
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In six out of the last seven weeks, we’ve had more new pendings than new listings!
But the total number of pendings dropped by 8% this week, and though it would be natural to assume that the market should cool off for the rest of the year, it’s 2020! All we need is more listings. Last year we had 163 listings hit the market between Nov 1-15, and this year we’ve had 119 so far.
Last year at this time, we had 291 pendings. Today’s count is 424, which is 46% higher!
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For five out of the last six weeks, we’ve had more new pendings than new listings!
Between Carlsbad and La Jolla, the current SFR median list price is $3,192,500!
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We’ve had 127 new listings, and 175 new pendings in the two weeks leading up to the election!
Oh, and last month’s sales? They’re up to 364, which is 47% more sales than in October, 2019.
We only had 65 new SFR listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad over the last seven days, which is an 18% drop from the previous week and the lowest count since the beginning of the pandemic. The demand is still hot – there were 85 new pendings – but if the inventory count does what it’s done in previous years, it will really fall off the next couple of months (see top graph).
But who knows – this is 2020!
We have three offers on our $1,195,000 listing in Vista, and should determine a winner today. The Big Question – do you take a full price cash offer that is contingent upon selling another home? Given how hot the market is, it’s worth considering!
How do the first three quarters of 2020 compare to last year’s stats? In spite of 8% fewer listings and the pandemic, we’ve sold more SFRs this year between La Jolla and Carlsbad!
NSDCC Listings and Sales, Jan 1 – Sept. 30
| Year | ||
| 2019 | ||
| 2020 |
The graph above plots the weekly activity, and probably shows the guardrails for next year too. If inventory stays tight, we’ll probably see a real scramble for the quality buys like we’ve had this year. If the inventory surges, it will look more like 2019 – which is fine too.
In previous years, the total number of pendings has remained steady in September and October, so I guess it’s not a big surprise the trend has continued this year – it’s just 50% higher!
People are still looking too – this is the highest 7-day moving average of the year:
The end of the month is usually the most popular time for closings, and last week was huge. There were 85 SFR escrows closed between La Jolla and Carlsbad since last Monday!
So the total-pendings count dropped a bit, but so did the actives.
There are FEWER houses for sale now than there were in the beginning of January!
Last week, I said this:
The number of active listings should keep dropping as the year winds down – we have probably seen the 2020 market peak for number of active listings. But we could see the pendings count stay in this range for a few more weeks.
Whoops, the number of active listings have gone up! The MLS ‘upgrade’ last weekend was a disaster, but they seem to be getting a hold of it – so I think my counts are right.
Is the Frenzy of 2021 starting to build? Additional inventory can cause the sales momentum to speed up.
Admittedly, I’m looking for it.
But everywhere I go, boomers are talking about selling their house and leaving town. More for-sale signs are popping up. A few new listings had 20-30 showings over the weekend – and others had none. Contractors are booked solid for weeks. Good dishwashers are back-ordered for 4-6 months.
Back in April, I thought October should be flat – and it starts on Thursday! October inventory and sales should be a great indicator of what we can expect in 2021!
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Two technicalities in the Inventory Watch.
Apparently, the hotel project at Dog Beach must have failed, and the listing is active again – see above. I’m going to exclude it because it skews the numbers, especially the days on market.
There is a funny quirk in the MLS ‘upgrade’ that hopefully will be worked out. The total-pendings count is fine, but when you search pendings by price range, about a quarter of them have the list price omitted. The MLS techs should be working on it? Or it will get resolved as the listings are marked sold.
I think the Labor Day heat stroke showed up in the stats this week.
We only had 75 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and 70 new pendings, which is about a 20% drop from the last couple of weeks. Or was it just the usual cooling off? We’ll see next week!
The showings perked up the last few days, and are nearly 30% higher than last year:
The number of active listings should keep dropping as the year winds down – we have probably seen the 2020 market peak for number of active listings. But we could see the pendings count stay in this range for a few more weeks.
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