Generally-speaking, the graph above reflects how today’s market conditions compare to last year.
Let’s also compare the weekly number of new pendings too (those marked pending in the past seven days). Since last Monday, we’ve had 44 new pendings, compared to the 59 we had in the same period last year when mortgage rates were already above 4.50%.
But this is an individual sport, and it depends on how you play it.
This seller probably thinks the market conditions are fantastic. They lowered their price 4% after ten days on the market, and then dumped another 6% to clinch a quick cash sale:
But how many sellers are willing to dump and run during their first two weeks on the market? Not many, and what the graph above shows is that sellers are holding out a bit longer instead.
The big news about the Fed dropping their rate last week didn’t cause people to rush out and buy a house – in fact, we didn’t even do as well as last year when rates were 1% higher (51 new pendings over the last seven days vs 54 last year at this time).
Rates being 1% lower means they are 22% better than last year:
Remember when rates in the threes used to set off a flurry of sales? Not any more:
This would be a good week for sellers to lower their price!
How does our NSDCC inventory compare to last year’s counts? Here they are by price range:
ACT Listings on 7/16/18
ACT Listings on 7/15/19
The inventory under $1,500,000 is about the same as last year, and above $1,500,000 is a little bloaty.
There were 7% more listings between $1.5M and $2.0M that came to market in the first half of 2019 as sellers keep pushing higher. But not everyone deserves to be there just yet – there are 21% more active listings today in that $1.5M-$2.0M range.
Let’s look at how sales have been impacted.
Here are the NSDCC first-half closed sales by price range:
1H18 # Sold
1H19 # Sold
Mortgage rates that are at least 1/2% lower this summer are only keeping sales close to what they were in 2018 – and any extra inventory just waits in line, hoping good fortune will come their way.
"Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community... more "
by Ann Romanello
"Jim educated us, helped us find the perfect house, and then negotiated us a great deal. I would hate to be sitting across the negotiating table from ... more "
"Jim is thorough and will be brutally honest about the homes he shows you. He provides great service and follows through until the very end and even ... more "
"I highly recommend Jim as a buyer’s agent. Working with Jim, we closed this week on a San Diego condo. Jim prepared a list of comparable sales to ... more "