We are getting close to a remarkable event – having more pendings than actives.
Here’s the current scorecard – 359 Actives, and 338 Pendings!
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
| Price Range | ||||
| 0-$1.0M | ||||
| $1.0M – $1.5M | ||||
| $1.5M – $2.0M | ||||
| $2.0-$3.0M | ||||
| $3.0M+ |
WE HAVE MORE PENDINGS THAN ACTIVES IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER-$3,000,000!
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We are up to 276 new NSDCC listings in January, which is 22% under last year’s count of 353 listings!
Here are the guesses – our winner is lifeisradincbad, congratulations!
234 – REOAndre
270 – lifeisradincbad
289 – Derek
305 – Joe
311 – Old Man
318 – Doughboy
325 – Haile
333 – Kris K.
347 – Big Crazy
353 – TominLaCosta
383 – Skip
387 – Amy
396 – Curtis (distance to centerfield wall at Petco!)
404 – Majeed
420 – BigDave
422 – Colleen
425 – Rob Dawg
432 – Tim
440 – Ben
If the total keeps climbing and gets up to 280, Derek will win the same prize – tickets to a Padres game and the U.S. Open. The slower start is probably due to the covid/nothing-else-to-buy/waiting-for-Prop-19 combo, all of which might open up a little in the coming weeks.
Last year at this time we had 222 active NSDCC listings priced under $2,000,000. Today we have 77!
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We are up to 266new NSDCC listings for January, and we’ll take the final count next Monday to see if we have any other late-reporters. Getting close to last year’s count of 353 listings is unlikely – we are currently 25% under last year’s count.
Here are the guesses – it looks like lifeisradincbad has the contest wrapped up:
234 – REOAndre
270 – lifeisradincbad
289 – Derek
305 – Joe
The total numbers of actives and pendings is getting closer together. We currently have 365 active NSDCC listings, and 316 pendings! Last year at this time we had 661 actives, and 265 pendings.
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Even though it looks like a record-low inventory for January (251 NSDCC listings so far), the number of pendings increased by 9% in the last week – buyers will not be denied!
I don’t think that the numbers of actives and pendings have ever been this close:
NSDCC Actives: 367
NSDCCC Pendings: 306
The action is weighed on the lower-end:
NSDCC Actives Median List Price: $3,950,000
NSDCC Pendings Median List Price: $1,895,000
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Monday’s breeze
We are only able to sell what’s for sale, so the direction of the frenzy depends on inventory.
If we get a surge of inventory, then sales will increase.
If we don’t get a surge of inventory, then bidding wars and prices go crazy.
We saw the differences here where the inventory shortage under $1,500,000 is particularly acute.
When looking at inventory by area, it’s the same thing. We are comparing to non-Covid years and this month isn’t done yet, but you can see below that the number of houses coming on the market is well under what it’s been in the past:
| Year | ||||
| 2017 | ||||
| 2018 | ||||
| 2019 | ||||
| 2020 | ||||
| 2021 MTD |
We have 123 listings so far this month and we might get up to 150 by Sunday – but even that will be 25% under last year’s count at a time when we probably have twice as many buyers in the hunt.
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We’ve only had 193 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad this year, which is still running about 20% behind the pre-Covid count last January. Undoubtedly, there are still sellers that are wary of the risk of opening their home to strangers, but it could also be the backup in lower-priced but desirable areas to which many Californians are moving.
From a realtor in Austin, Texas:
Here on the ground, I can confirm the extreme buyer demand in Austin. Most properties are currently seeing 30-60+ offers with many homes selling $100,000+ above the list price in just 24-48 hours. Inventory is at near zero levels in many neighborhoods and suburbs.
For those potential sellers who are nervous about allowing Covid into your house, here’s my proposition. Stay in a hotel for the weekend, and I’ll sell your house by Sunday night and have the scrub-down crew sanitize before you come back. As for where to move…..go where everyone else isn’t!
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We can endure a slight and gradual reduction of inventory in the higher-end market, where there will always be hundreds of choices available and the number of buyers are limited, relatively. But the squeeze on the lower-end is getting worse:
| Year | ||||
| 2017 | ||||
| 2018 | ||||
| 2019 | ||||
| 2020 | ||||
| 2021 | ||||
| 2020 vs 2021 YoY diff |
Not only has there been just 52 new listings priced under $1,500,000 in 2021, but today there are only 17 of them that are actively for sale. In an area with 300,000+ people!
What’s it like being a home buyer today? It’s a bonanza if you are in the multiple-millions category – there are hundreds of choices! If you want to stay under $1,500,000, the inventory looks bleak:
| Town or Area | ||||
| Cardiff | ||||
| NW Carlsbad | ||||
| SE Carlsbad | ||||
| NE Carlsbad | ||||
| SW Carlsbad | ||||
| Carmel Vly | ||||
| Del Mar | ||||
| Encinitas | ||||
| La Jolla | ||||
| RSF | ||||
| Solana Bch | ||||
| NSDCC |
Should the lower-end buyers be discouraged? No! There are 92 pending sales listed under $1,500,000 – they just sell fast. The lower-priced you are, the more tuned up you have to be to win a bidding war.
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Custom mirror/rock wall combo!
Contest update:
We’ve only had 136 new NSDCC listings this month (including the Coming Soons), so matching last year’s count of 353 listings in January looks unlikely. Those with the lower guesses are looking good:
234 – REOAndre
270 – lifeisradincbad
289 – Derek
305 – Joe
311 – Old Man
318 – Doughboy
325 – Haile
333 – Kris K.
347 – Big Crazy
353 – TominLaCosta
What’s not looking good is the idea that buyers will have plenty of choices this spring!
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The contest for guessing the number of listings in January is now closed. We are running about 20% behind last January’s count, so the few sellers who are willing to brave the early-2021 market will do nicely.
We had 31 showings and five offers on our new listing over the weekend, and three of them were willing to pay $90,000 over list!
If you are the kind of buyer who wants to use logic and common sense – and tie your offer price to the comps – well, this isn’t the market for you. Pay tomorrow’s prices, today!
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Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
