How does our NSDCC inventory compare to last year’s counts? Here they are by price range:
ACT Listings on 7/16/18
ACT Listings on 7/15/19
The inventory under $1,500,000 is about the same as last year, and above $1,500,000 is a little bloaty.
There were 7% more listings between $1.5M and $2.0M that came to market in the first half of 2019 as sellers keep pushing higher. But not everyone deserves to be there just yet – there are 21% more active listings today in that $1.5M-$2.0M range.
Let’s look at how sales have been impacted.
Here are the NSDCC first-half closed sales by price range:
1H18 # Sold
1H19 # Sold
Mortgage rates that are at least 1/2% lower this summer are only keeping sales close to what they were in 2018 – and any extra inventory just waits in line, hoping good fortune will come their way.
Rich’s latest graphs are out, and this inventory history above shows how relatively few homes are for sale locally.
The median detached-home list price for the county today is $849,000!
He did mention a reader’s theory that in the era of online search portals, the inventory has become more efficient. Better-educated buyers are making faster decisions these days, which keeps the inventory counts down. But the hot buys have always sold quickly, and the over-abundance of data could be dumbing down the decision-making.
The NAR is pushing their latest propaganda above – but they they gloss over the fact that YoY rates were only 1/4% better in March and April when those decisions were made to close the sales in May.
Rates started rising in 2018, and you can see how it affected the pendings below. In a fortuitous change this year, rates are dropping and will probably see their 2019 low point in the next couple of weeks as the markets prepare for a Fed rate cut in July – but we aren’t seeing a bump in pendings just yet:
July is probably as good as it’s going to get for the rest of 2019!
Let’s note how the days-on-market is different for each price range:
NSDCC Price Range
Average Days-on-Market, Actives
Average Days-on-Market, Pendings
$0 – $1.0M
$1.0 – $1.5M
$1.5 – $2.0M
New listings priced under $1,000,000 get reviewed for a week or two, and then most get into escrow within the first month. On the other end, the lower average DOM for actives than pendings means we’re having a surge of new listings. Sure enough, we’ve had 309 new listings priced over $2,000,000 in the last 60 days. There have been 119 closings over $2 million in the same period.
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