by Jim the Realtor | Jul 4, 2022 | Inventory |

This should be about it.
If there hasn’t been a surge of inventory by now, it’s not coming – at least not this year.
There might be some nice action over the next couple of weeks as buyers try to land a deal before school starts, but there won’t be big discounts – they will have to pay the price.
It will probably be the same in 2023 too.
How do I know?
Ask any potential, or actual, home sellers around the coast:
“You already have to pay six figures in capital-gains taxes when selling your home (and if they are selling a home they have owned since the 1970s or 1980s, it could be $500,000 to $1,000,000 in taxes).
“How do you feel about lowering your price by $100,000 or $200,000 too?”
“How do you feel about losing that much money?”
Their answer will tell you everything about the future of our market – they’re not going to give it away!


It’s been the craziest six months of real estate ever! Expect it to get downright boring from here.
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 27, 2022 | Inventory |

It’s exciting now!
There is one thing we know for sure:
Generally speaking, home sellers are not adjusting their expectations about price.
The standoff will last another few weeks, and then the unsuccessful sellers will pack it in for the year.
Don’t be surprised if the 2023 pricing looks a lot like it does today!
The NSDCC inventory is still well below normal, but nobody cares about that. This is Bill’s take:

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-inventory-will-tell-the-tale
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 22, 2022 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions |

Hat tip to long-time reader Todd who we saw at the game last night – we did bug out early, but it was only to pick up Kayla at the airport. The Padres walked it off in the 11th inning!
Meanwhile, people are wondering where the local real estate market is going to end up.
For conditions to change much, sellers would have to panic, and dump on price. Otherwise, we will just be taking a leisurely stroll through Plateau City, admiring all the homes that aren’t selling.
Here are the favorite zip codes around North County – SE Carlsbad (92009), Encinitas (92024), Carmel Valley (92130), and Rancho Santa Fe (92067).
A few months ago, we had the lowest number of active listings of all-time:
While lately the number of the active listings have been growing steadily, they would have to double from this point before getting into the danger zone – but we’re going to run out of time before that happens.
Now that doom is being broadcast everywhere, sellers will decide that ‘now isn’t a good time to sell’, and by August they will quit listing their homes for sale.
There are 396 NSDCC active listings today (and 180 pendings), and we might hit 500 before August, but that will be the peak for 2022.
The market won’t keep getting worse – it will just taper off for rest of the year as buyers AND sellers lose interest. Instead, we’ll be talking about the playoffs and our first-place Padres going to the World Series!
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 20, 2022 | Actives/Pendings, Inventory, North County Coastal |

Buyers thought this was a holiday weekend, and sellers didn’t!
It was the week that the actives-to-pendings ratio between La Jolla and Carlsbad crossed back over the ideal 2:1 range, which is what we have observed to be the sign of a healthy market in the past.
Last week: 354/202, or 1.75
This week: 388/177, or 2.19
Here is the breakdown by price range:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
Price Range |
Active Listings |
Pending Listings |
A/P |
0-$1.5M |
46 |
22 |
2.1 |
$1.5-$2.0M |
57 |
41 |
1.4 |
$2.0-$3.0M |
91 |
59 |
1.5 |
$3.0-$4.0M |
52 |
26 |
2.0 |
$4.0M+ |
148 |
35 |
4.2 |
The high-end firmly believes that it takes longer to sell the uber-expensive homes, so they are happy to wait for their magic moment – and typically have the resources to do so.
I wrote offers for buyers around the $2,000,000 range, and both listing agents claimed to have multiple offers. It may take longer to reach an accepted offer these days as listing agents wait for better deals to arrive, so let’s check back on the pendings in a couple of days.
This is what Plateau City looks like – plenty of unsolds preferring to sit, than reduce.

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The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
9 |
$832/sf |
35 |
36 |
Jan 10 |
9 |
$766/sf |
28 |
29 |
Jan 17 |
13 |
$773/sf |
26 |
27 |
Jan 24 |
9 |
$818/sf |
15 |
29 |
Jan 31 |
14 |
$752/sf |
14 |
31 |
Feb 7 |
13 |
$774/sf |
12 |
32 |
Feb 14 |
11 |
$826/sf |
12 |
35 |
Feb 21 |
7 |
$889/sf |
17 |
38 |
Feb 28 |
12 |
$888/sf |
17 |
33 |
Mar 7 |
9 |
$1,017/sf |
21 |
33 |
Mar 14 |
14 |
$847/sf |
18 |
31 |
Mar 21 |
8 |
$912/sf |
26 |
36 |
Mar 28 |
10 |
$914/sf |
25 |
28 |
Apr 4 |
10 |
$782/sf |
33 |
34 |
Apr 11 |
19 |
$733/sf |
21 |
36 |
Apr 18 |
16 |
$795/sf |
28 |
34 |
Apr 25 |
18 |
$891/sf |
27 |
30 |
May 2 |
22 |
$822/sf |
23 |
31 |
May 9 |
24 |
$887/sf |
17 |
46 |
May 16 |
25 |
$783/sf |
22 |
25 |
May 23 |
29 |
$782/sf |
23 |
29 |
May 30 |
30 |
$782/sf |
24 |
28 |
Jun 6 |
34 |
$763/sf |
25 |
28 |
Jun 13 |
33 |
$802/sf |
29 |
29 |
Jun 20 |
48 |
$774/sf |
28 |
22 |
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
8 |
$842/sf |
52 |
36 |
Jan 10 |
13 |
$751/sf |
28 |
29 |
Jan 17 |
16 |
$736/sf |
33 |
27 |
Jan 24 |
16 |
$801/sf |
17 |
27 |
Jan 31 |
15 |
$696/sf |
14 |
34 |
Feb 7 |
15 |
$765/sf |
17 |
34 |
Feb 14 |
10 |
$726/sf |
19 |
38 |
Feb 21 |
19 |
$715/sf |
15 |
39 |
Feb 28 |
9 |
$660/sf |
12 |
46 |
Mar 7 |
16 |
$789/sf |
15 |
46 |
Mar 14 |
17 |
$837/sf |
8 |
44 |
Mar 21 |
18 |
$867/sf |
11 |
43 |
Mar 28 |
14 |
$838/sf |
15 |
48 |
Apr 4 |
18 |
$762/sf |
25 |
42 |
Apr 11 |
23 |
$774/sf |
15 |
39 |
Apr 18 |
22 |
$792/sf |
17 |
41 |
Apr 25 |
18 |
$810/sf |
20 |
41 |
May 2 |
27 |
$809/sf |
17 |
37 |
May 9 |
33 |
$837/sf |
17 |
46 |
May 16 |
39 |
$793/sf |
19 |
44 |
May 23 |
43 |
$793/sf |
22 |
44 |
May 30 |
36 |
$843/sf |
23 |
36 |
Jun 6 |
43 |
$817/sf |
23 |
41 |
Jun 13 |
49 |
$845/sf |
24 |
42 |
Jun 20 |
57 |
$817/sf |
24 |
41 |
The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
18 |
$1,080/sf |
127 |
43 |
Jan 10 |
23 |
$1,038/sf |
85 |
37 |
Jan 17 |
26 |
$1,044/sf |
80 |
41 |
Jan 24 |
28 |
$1,015/sf |
37 |
42 |
Jan 31 |
22 |
$949/sf |
38 |
47 |
Feb 7 |
26 |
$919/sf |
29 |
42 |
Feb 14 |
22 |
$997/sf |
37 |
49 |
Feb 21 |
21 |
$966/sf |
33 |
54 |
Feb 28 |
26 |
$905/sf |
32 |
57 |
Mar 7 |
29 |
$922/sf |
28 |
57 |
Mar 14 |
20 |
$852/sf |
26 |
58 |
Mar 21 |
17 |
$928/sf |
26 |
60 |
Mar 28 |
34 |
$927/sf |
12 |
65 |
Apr 4 |
32 |
$927/sf |
20 |
69 |
Apr 11 |
44 |
$910/sf |
17 |
62 |
Apr 18 |
48 |
$997/sf |
19 |
66 |
Apr 25 |
42 |
$1,092/sf |
18 |
73 |
May 2 |
54 |
$995/sf |
19 |
70 |
May 9 |
61 |
$910/sf |
20 |
73 |
May 16 |
64 |
$977/sf |
22 |
69 |
May 23 |
82 |
$953/sf |
25 |
59 |
May 30 |
78 |
$951/sf |
27 |
56 |
Jun 6 |
94 |
$963/sf |
27 |
58 |
Jun 13 |
98 |
$961/sf |
28 |
70 |
Jun 20 |
91 |
$935/sf |
32 |
59 |
The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
19 |
$1,230/sf |
90 |
26 |
Jan 10 |
22 |
$1,210/sf |
76 |
25 |
Jan 17 |
19 |
$1,207/sf |
86 |
23 |
Jan 24 |
17 |
$1,129/sf |
92 |
24 |
Jan 31 |
21 |
$1,172/sf |
70 |
22 |
Feb 7 |
19 |
$1,169/sf |
67 |
25 |
Feb 14 |
19 |
$1,234/sf |
65 |
28 |
Feb 21 |
21 |
$1,279/sf |
69 |
28 |
Feb 28 |
22 |
$1,214/sf |
64 |
25 |
Mar 7 |
27 |
$1,295/sf |
60 |
24 |
Mar 14 |
27 |
$1,201/sf |
65 |
27 |
Mar 21 |
23 |
$1,282/sf |
69 |
31 |
Mar 28 |
25 |
$1,253/sf |
67 |
30 |
Apr 4 |
30 |
$1,199/sf |
61 |
27 |
Apr 11 |
32 |
$1,174/sf |
62 |
31 |
Apr 18 |
33 |
$1,216/sf |
68 |
31 |
Apr 25 |
33 |
$1,219/sf |
63 |
33 |
May 2 |
37 |
$1,164/sf |
50 |
36 |
May 9 |
33 |
$1,132/sf |
57 |
32 |
May 16 |
40 |
$1,119/sf |
53 |
32 |
May 23 |
40 |
$1,135/sf |
57 |
27 |
May 30 |
40 |
$1,178/sf |
61 |
28 |
Jun 6 |
43 |
$1,224/sf |
56 |
28 |
Jun 13 |
48 |
$1,184/sf |
52 |
28 |
Jun 20 |
52 |
$1,117/sf |
53 |
26 |
The $4,000,000+ Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
100 |
$1,884/sf |
128 |
30 |
Jan 10 |
105 |
$1,864/sf |
113 |
29 |
Jan 17 |
109 |
$1,763/sf |
110 |
34 |
Jan 24 |
105 |
$2,130/sf |
114 |
42 |
Jan 31 |
102 |
$2,114/sf |
118 |
53 |
Feb 7 |
109 |
$2,000/sf |
108 |
50 |
Feb 14 |
108 |
$2,005/sf |
109 |
47 |
Feb 21 |
113 |
$2,008/sf |
103 |
43 |
Feb 28 |
111 |
$1,991/sf |
101 |
47 |
Mar 7 |
115 |
$1,904/sf |
91 |
39 |
Mar 14 |
121 |
$1,893/sf |
95 |
43 |
Mar 21 |
116 |
$1,905/sf |
97 |
44 |
Mar 28 |
104 |
$1,966/sf |
97 |
59 |
Apr 4 |
103 |
$1,929/sf |
97 |
56 |
Apr 11 |
106 |
$1,906/sf |
97 |
55 |
Apr 18 |
108 |
$1,874/sf |
100 |
51 |
Apr 25 |
116 |
$1,829/sf |
97 |
38 |
May 2 |
117 |
$1,781/sf |
95 |
32 |
May 9 |
116 |
$1,831/sf |
96 |
36 |
May 16 |
124 |
$1,854/sf |
91 |
39 |
May 23 |
125 |
$1,855/sf |
92 |
36 |
May 30 |
129 |
$1,706/sf |
93 |
39 |
Jun 6 |
131 |
$1,740/sf |
89 |
33 |
Jun 13 |
132 |
$1,793/sf |
86 |
38 |
Jun 20 |
148 |
$1,772/sf |
84 |
35 |
NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Actives |
Total Pendings |
Jan 3, 2022 |
17 |
14 |
152 |
164 |
Jan 10 |
39 |
18 |
167 |
142 |
Jan 17 |
34 |
29 |
179 |
145 |
Jan 24 |
41 |
40 |
173 |
157 |
Jan 31 |
43 |
40 |
173 |
182 |
Feb 7 |
43 |
38 |
179 |
179 |
Feb 14 |
44 |
49 |
168 |
193 |
Feb 21 |
51 |
38 |
180 |
197 |
Feb 28 |
39 |
39 |
179 |
205 |
Mar 7 |
54 |
37 |
191 |
195 |
Mar 14 |
48 |
51 |
195 |
196 |
Mar 21 |
39 |
46 |
178 |
207 |
Mar 28 |
53 |
50 |
185 |
224 |
Apr 4 |
46 |
40 |
190 |
220 |
Apr 11 |
61 |
39 |
221 |
213 |
Apr 18 |
41 |
46 |
224 |
212 |
Apr 25 |
50 |
43 |
224 |
205 |
May 2 |
76 |
37 |
256 |
196 |
May 9 |
59 |
46 |
262 |
207 |
May 16 |
78 |
48 |
286 |
200 |
May 23 |
61 |
42 |
312 |
192 |
May 30 |
54 |
44 |
307 |
183 |
Jun 6 |
70 |
31 |
338 |
183 |
Jun 13 |
60 |
41 |
354 |
202 |
Jun 20 |
71 |
25 |
388 |
177 |
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 13, 2022 | Inventory |

The number of active listings keeps climbing, which is expected. The likelihood of getting the list price wrong has probably never been higher, given that sellers have been planning their move for months – and they are going to test it out to see if they can get lucky, rather than adjust the price pre-maturely.
With more choices available, the buyers are reacting, and the number of pendings increased 10%.
As a reminder from last week, we used to have 900-1,000 active listings at this time of year:

It will be irresistible for people to wait-and-see where this goes. But ‘it’ is not going anywhere. Until there is some sort of boomer liquidation event, which at the soonest will be 5-10 years from now, the demand is going to out-strip the supply and keep the pressure on pricing.

I encourage readers to click on the ‘more…’ button (below) and examine the individual stats by price range. If there is going to be a supply-and-demand problem, it will be on the high-end, where the active-to-pending ratio is back to 10:1. But those sellers are the most equipped to handle it.
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 6, 2022 | Inventory |

Once we got past the Memorial Day weekend, the unsold listings continued their climb. Here’s how the first week in June compares to previous years:
NSDCC Listings, First Monday in June:
Year |
# of Active Listings |
# of Pendings |
# Actives Over $2M |
# of Pendings Over $2M |
2018 |
914 |
410 |
488 |
102 |
2019 |
1,005 |
365 |
523 |
85 |
2020 |
514 |
338 |
405 |
88 |
2021 |
607 |
360 |
270 |
166 |
2022 |
338 |
183 |
268 |
119 |
These are the stats from an ultra-low inventory environment, which we’ve never seen before. I’m sure there are sellers out there who haven’t had a showing yet. Consider the current market conditions, and act accordingly!
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by Jim the Realtor | May 30, 2022 | Inventory |

I mentioned how overshoot is part of the program. It will be a miracle if the sellers’ expectations can adjust quickly enough to salvage the rest of the selling season.
It’s probably never been so hard in the history of real estate to get the list-price right!
Even if the price is ‘right’, a new listing might not sell right away just because of buyers wanting to wait-and-see for a while longer. Sellers won’t know what to do, so they won’t do anything and they will wait-and-see too. Only a few might drop their price enough to make a difference.
Welcome to Plateau City – we’ve arrived!

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by Jim the Realtor | May 23, 2022 | Inventory |

The overshoot part of the frenzy is unavoidable.
The pricing of the new listings was calculated on sold comps from when the frenzy was hotter and sellers were getting big pops over the list prices.
Back then, you didn’t have to spruce ’em up as much, you got away with sloppy pricing, and the listing agents insisted on 60-day rentbacks for free, ‘coming soon’ teasers for weeks, and showing times based on when the listing agent felt like fitting it into their schedule.
The pricing part has been correcting – it’s the rest of the package that needs adjustment:

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by Jim the Realtor | May 16, 2022 | Inventory |

Everyone complained that we had no inventory….well, we have more now! But the 286 active listings today is still well under the 349 actives that we had last year at this time, and more listings should cause more sales.
We’ll see if the slight pause in the market can be attributed to the usual graduation-season malaise, or if a full-blown buyers’ strike is underway.
This isn’t the only measuring stick, but it appears that pricing has been settling down:

Most sellers are going to wait it out, or cancel their listing – neither of which will satisfy the buyers who are hoping for a major adjustment.
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by Jim the Realtor | May 9, 2022 | Inventory |

While it would be logical to think that anyone who is going to sell in 2022 would be expediting their plans due to higher mortgage rates, there still hasn’t been a big surge. We had one little pop when the weekly new-listings count hit 76, but they were back down to 59 this week – and the pendings have risen since.
As we head into the graduation season, and then into the peak vacation season, we might find that the 2022 selling season has already concluded. Maybe we’ll get a surge in July?

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