Our January sales count of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad was impressive, and comparable to the good old days!
NSDCC January Sales & Listings
# of Sales
# of New Jan. Listings
In spite of all-time record pricing, the number of January listings really dried up, compared to previous Januarys – and 40% of last month’s listings are already pending or sold. How you feel about the inventory shortage depends somewhat on your price range too – here is the recent history:
NSDCC Number of January Listings by Price Range
$1M – $2M
$2M – $3M
For those hoping to buy a house priced under a million, the dwindling number of listings is daunting. But the inventory over $1,000,000 has been relatively stable – no big surge there.
We’ve never had a soft landing before, but this is how I imagine one would look – mortgage rates drop just enough to have sales and pricing level out:
# of Sales
We could have done better (see 2016), but it could have been much worse too. In 2014, when pricing was substantially lower, we only had 173 sales – which goes to show you that pricing isn’t the only component.
Speaking of pricing, the median sales price has rebounded over the last two months instead of tapering off, like it usually does. It’s over $100,000 higher than last November! (Coastal North includes Oceanside):
It looks like an early surge is likely in 2020, after that….who knows?
Last year, I guessed that our NSDCC sales would drop 20% due to high mortgage rates, and pricing would stay about the same. Rates dropped instead, and both sales and pricing stayed about the same as the previous year.
In 2020, I think we will see sales drop 10%, just because we’re overdue, and guessing that the NSDCC median sales price might go up 2% to 3%.
We’ve entered the World Of Concierge, where all participants – flippers, ibuyers, and realtors/brokerages – are rehabbing, improving, decorating, and staging most homes for sale. The movement has been building for years, and in 2020 we should see full implementation.
It takes some of the sting out of paying full retail, and buyers really don’t mind paying all the money if they get a turn-key home. Because sellers and agents will be going further to satisfy the retail buyer, we should see more of the softer landing that we saw this year that was caused by dropping rates.
Here’s what Rob Dawg said last year:
Median +4%. Late year inflation and demand for even negative cash flow rental properties. Volume down only 12%. Lots of deck chair shuffling will look like volume. Reported volume -10% from 2018.
$2m+ volume will increase. Lots of quality properties aging out and none of the kids or grandkids can afford to take possession out of the communal estate. Add to this the “too many houses” crowd both casual investors and the very rich who have made their money and ready to throw off the carrying costs.
Almost nothing sub $550k will show up on the sales sheets.
Interest rates will range between 4.4% (early, briefly) and eventually 5.6% (in Q4). Inflation and banking regulations conspire.
There may be a technical recession that will be over before it is confirmed. People will argue whether there was a recession.
Here is a metric we haven’t followed. Total dollar volume of sales will be flat to slightly down.
But what do I know?
We both thoughts rates would be a problem in 2019, but what do we know? It’s hard to believe rates could drop lower in 2020, but if they did get into the low-3s it would ignite the market. Those who have been wanting to move up or down but had a mortgage rate in the mid-3s or higher could now justify moving and getting a lower rate. If California residents pass the referendum to enable seniors to take their old tax basis with them when they buy up in price, it could also ignite sales (if you believe the California Association of Realtors).
What’s Your Guess? The closest guesser will get four tickets to a Padres game!
Mr. and Mrs. Dawg did join us for a Padres game this year (vs. the Red Sox).
Above you can see how our market compares to others, and below is the history of our ‘months of supply’. I said in the video yesterday that I thought the NSDCC sales in 2020 will be down 10% year-over-year mostly because there aren’t enough reasonably-priced homes to sell (or conversely, there aren’t enough buyers who can/will overpay for the multi-million-dollar homes).
I think you can see some of the price resistance lately as the orange line got into the 3s the last two years. We’ve seen how the velocity of the price increases has slowed considerably and when that happens, the natural next step for the market is fewer sales.
The orange line hit 3.0 in April of this year, when the previous April it was only 2.4, which means the inventory grew quicker at the start of the selling season. Expect the same in 2020, and when buyers see a rapidly growing inventory, it’s natural for them to be cautious and picky.
The thing I think you miss most or maybe overlook is how overleveraged the average person is. I do commercial real estate and routinely have access to small business owners financials. Equity rich in their homes but cash poor with credit card debt and car loans up the wazoo. Any bump in the road will send them into disarray. Selling the house may be the only way they can survive. I think rocky times ahead.
We can speculate about what might be or what could happen, but in the end we’re all just guessing. Blog reader ‘Another Investor’ believes the opposite – that boomers are flush and not moving until they go feet first…..so we have balance here at bubbleinfo.com!
Let’s use statistics to help guide us.
If there were trouble brewing, then more people would be trying to sell.
Not everyone would sell, because their motivation might not be strong enough to take what the market would bear. So let’s just consider the number of listings – and also consider that there are probably more re-lists now than ever:
NSDCC Total Number of Listings Between Jan-Oct:
# of Listings
Boomers or others aren’t trying to sell any more than they used to – so no obvious surge yet.
But the number of cash-out refinances was somewhat alarming yesterday. But everyone has to qualify for those mortgages, so even if more people are tapping their equity, they must be able to afford it.
But like Eddie89 said, the rules have changed, so all previous assumptions don’t apply.
I think any distressed homeowners will wait until the very end before deciding to sell because they really don’t want to move. It will drag out the inevitable, but it might just cause a softer landing because each homeowners ability to last longer will vary.
Let’s keep an eye on the number of new listings – that’s where you’ll see it first!
Our market was slumping towards the end of 2018, so no surprise that the numbers this year look so good. But the pace since 2013 is remarkable, and for last month’s sales to only be down 10% vs. 2013 is incredible, given how strong our market was then:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, October:
Diff since 2013
The statistics should remain solid for the rest of the year, though the local Case-Shiller Index will probably be slightly negative. It’s 2020 that will be less predictable!
Our proprietary model using Google search trends shows a bottoming & re-acceleration in resale and new home sales growth YOY into year end. Lower mortgage rates, better affordability, and an easy comp vs. last year’s dreary 4Q help these YOY stats.
You would think that the sales slump at the end of 2018 would make this year’s comparison look rosy, but it looks like we’ll be lucky just to match the 2018 sales around Coastal North SD County. We need 62 more sales reported for October, 2019 just to match last year – which had been 5% lower than the year before:
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