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NSDCC Pendings Overtake Actives

This morning we have more homes in escrow than we have for sale!

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings

Listing Status
# of Listings
Median List Price
Active
352
$3,950,000
Pending
353
$1,925,000

Once upon a time I was discussing the actives/pendings relationship with local agent Peter B.  He agreed that a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings was a sign of a healthy market.  If 2:1 was healthy, what is 1:1?

One thing that’s happening is that the action is rising into the upper price ranges. Today we have 94 homes in escrow that are priced over $3,000,000, which I doubt we’ve ever had before.

If we don’t see a surge of more listings, the pendings could extend its lead in the coming days/weeks!

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Inventory Watch

We are getting close to a remarkable event – having more pendings than actives.

Here’s the current scorecard – 359 Actives, and 338 Pendings!

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Avg $$/sf
Pending Listings
Avg $$/sf
0-$1.0M
6
$424/sf
33
$640/sf
$1.0M – $1.5M
22
$677/sf
70
$605/sf
$1.5M – $2.0M
45
$686/sf
87
$621/sf
$2.0-$3.0M
65
$871/sf
68
$759/sf
$3.0M+
224
$1,404/sf
87
$1,020/sf

WE HAVE MORE PENDINGS THAN ACTIVES IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER-$3,000,000!

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NSDCC Listings, February 1-15

Are we getting any more inventory? Are more homes coming to market?

There have been a few more good listings, which gives hope. The Super Bowl being on February 7th was later than usual, but the overall numbers are still very light:

NSDCC New Listings Between Feb 1 – Feb 15

Year
Total Number of Listings
Median List Price
Number Under $2M
Total Sold
% Sold
2019
207
$1,650,000
135
132
64%
2020
208
$1,731,500
126
121
58%
2021
140
$1,776,500
85
?
?

The 2021 count will climb a bit higher, but it’s safe to say that we are still well behind where we usually are.

If we end up around 165 listings, and the percentage sold improves to 70%, it would equal 116 sales which is close to the 2020 total.

If all we are missing are the casual sellers that wouldn’t have sold anyway, are we any worse off?

Not really – and the market would be more efficient if we’re just left with the serious players all around.

NSDCC January Performance

When you look at the general data, the 25% dip year-over-year of January listings doesn’t look so bad – especially on a graph.  Heck, we’re in the middle of a pandemic!

But look how it is playing out:

NSDCC Detached-Home New Listings

Price Range New Listings in January # of Those Pend/Sold Pend/Sold Median DOM
Under $1.5M
85
75
5
Over $1.5M
189
98
6

The lower-end is smoking hot where virtually all listings have found a buyer (88%), and for the higher-end to have most of the January listings go pending already is astonishing!

This has to be the best performing market of all-time!

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January Inventory By Area

Monday’s breeze

We are only able to sell what’s for sale, so the direction of the frenzy depends on inventory.

If we get a surge of inventory, then sales will increase.

If we don’t get a surge of inventory, then bidding wars and prices go crazy.

We saw the differences here where the inventory shortage under $1,500,000 is particularly acute.

When looking at inventory by area, it’s the same thing.  We are comparing to non-Covid years and this month isn’t done yet, but you can see below that the number of houses coming on the market is well under what it’s been in the past:

January Total SFR Listings By Area

Year
Carlsbad
Encinitas
Carmel Valley
Totals
2017
123
63
54
240
2018
114
75
50
239
2019
118
69
60
247
2020
101
56
45
202
2021 MTD
54
40
29
123

We have 123 listings so far this month and we might get up to 150 by Sunday – but even that will be 25% under last year’s count at a time when we probably have twice as many buyers in the hunt.

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January Inventory Mix

We can endure a slight and gradual reduction of inventory in the higher-end market, where there will always be hundreds of choices available and the number of buyers are limited, relatively. But the squeeze on the lower-end is getting worse:

NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1-21

Year
Total # of Listings
Under $1.5M
Over $1.5M
% Over $1.5M
2017
282
140
144
51%
2018
300
130
171
57%
2019
282
131
152
54%
2020
230
83
150
65%
2021
172
52
123
72%
2020 vs 2021 YoY diff
-25%
-37%
-18%
+11%

Not only has there been just 52 new listings priced under $1,500,000 in 2021, but today there are only 17 of them that are actively for sale. In an area with 300,000+ people!

Inventory By Area

What’s it like being a home buyer today? It’s a bonanza if you are in the multiple-millions category – there are hundreds of choices! If you want to stay under $1,500,000, the inventory looks bleak:

NSDCC Active Inventory

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives Under $1.5M
Actives Over $1.5M
Overall Median List Price
Cardiff
92007
1
11
$2,895,000
NW Carlsbad
92008
4
10
$1,872,000
SE Carlsbad
92009
7
9
$1,594,000
NE Carlsbad
92010
2
0
$842,000
SW Carlsbad
92011
5
2
$1,149,000
Carmel Vly
92130
2
21
$3,450,000
Del Mar
92014
0
42
$5,423,000
Encinitas
92024
6
34
$2,737,000
La Jolla
92037
3
95
$4,245,000
RSF
92067
1
100
$5,295,000
Solana Bch
92075
0
12
$5,075,000
NSDCC
All Above
31
336
$3,995,000

Should the lower-end buyers be discouraged? No! There are 92 pending sales listed under $1,500,000 – they just sell fast. The lower-priced you are, the more tuned up you have to be to win a bidding war.

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2021 Frenzy Contest

Happy New Year…..how about a contest to get it started?

My case for a full-blown frenzy is based on having additional supply to fuel the seemingly-insatiable demand brought on by the pandemic – having more homes for sale will help spike sales and prices.  Betting on more people selling their piece of paradise sounds insane as the coronavirus rages throughout the region, but we’re overdue – and there are a number of reasons why it could happen:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2020/12/22/my-top-ten-reasons-for-frenzy-2021/

We will know how the selling season will unravel just by the number of new listings in January.

Here is the history:

NSDCC January Listings

Year
Number of January Listings
2011
367
2012
275
2013
419
2014
425
2015
405
2016
471
2017
395
2018
427
2019
421
2020
353

The range is 275-471, the median is 412, and the average is 396 listings. Last year we had 5% fewer listings, but 13% more sales than in 2019. My 2021 prediction is 10% more NSDCC listings year-over-year, 10% more sales, and a 10% increase in the NSDCC median sales price.

OUR CONTEST: GUESS THE NUMBER OF NSDCC LISTINGS IN JANUARY, 2021!

In 2020, saw a big drop-off in January listings year-over-year (-16%), and that was before the pandemic. If we see a similar amount, or fewer, then prices will go nuts but be limited to the neighborhoods that actually have sales, and the lucky few who can win a bidding war.

If we have a surge in listings, then more of the demand will be satisfied and the frenzy will reach more areas – and prices go up faster because of the additional comps, all of which should close for a higher price than the last sale.

Having a contest based on the number of January listings will help to keep our focus on one of the leading indicators for the 2021 selling season.

The winner will be who guesses the closest (above or below) to the actual number of January listings as counted on the morning of February 15th.  The winner will receive two tickets to a day at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, June 17-20, and four tickets to a game with World-Series favorite, the San Diego Padres!

I have purchased tickets to both events already, so as long as the ‘rona cooperates and fans are allowed, we will have prizes.  Neither the PGA or the Padres have committed to a set policy on fans yet though, so if they both cancel out then I’ll think of something else for a prize.

Our Padres tickets aren’t front row, but they are decent:

Leave your guess in the the comment section on how many NSDCC SFR listings we’ll have in January!

Hello 2021 Frenzy!

When will we know more about the 2021 frenzy?

We already know it’s going to be hot – look at the sales count for this month, plus we have 285 pendings:

NSDCC December Sales

Year
December Sales
The Following January Sales
% Drop-off
2012
181
128
29%
2013
223
184
17%
2014
255
172
33%
2015
258
170
34%
2016
241
175
27%
2017
223
151
32%
2018
197
153
22%
2019
228
185
19%
2020
283
??
??

We knew that 2020 was going to be better than usual just by the 185 sales in January. Then the pandemic derailed us for a couple of months, but we gained it all back in the second half of the year and 2020 wound up with the most annual NSDCC sales ever.

The drop-off from December to January a year ago was only 19%, so if we see about the same decline next month, we’ll know that the frenzy is continuing.  We have 283 December sales this morning, and once we add today’s sales plus the late-reporters we’ll probably be around 310 sales for this month(!!!).

If next month’s sales end up around 251 or higher (310-19%), then we’ll know that the frenzy is continuing.

The last frenzy happened in 2013, and you can see how it continued into early 2014 with only a 17% drop off.  But by the end of 2014, the frenzy was over – expect the current frenzy to die down by the end of 2021.

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Inventory Watch

The pendings count has been mirroring the actives pretty closely since mid-October, with the best example during election week when they moved about the same amount in opposite directions.

With fewer listings and more sales, the failure rate this year has been lower than ever. Historically we’ve had around 40% of listings NOT sell, but this year it’s closer to 30%:

Sales/Listings

2018: 2,814/4,864 = 0.58

2019: 2,838/4,773 = 0.59

2020: 3,106/4,480 = 0.69 (+17% yoy)

Though all prices ranges have benefited, the action has been heaviest on the lower-end.

We have 87 NSDCC homes for sale UNDER $2,000,000 today, and 338 OVER!  The Median is $3,692,500!

Get Good Help!

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