by Jim the Realtor | Apr 19, 2024 | 2024, Market Conditions, Market Surge, North County Coastal, Spring Kick |
Pardon the casual presentation. I’m used to working with this same basic graph format but it’s limited to 50 datapoints – we’d really like to take these back a few years to see the long-term trends.
But in early 2023, the active listings in the $3M – $4M category were range bound between 1,170/sf and 1,342/sf, so there is some normal optimism in springtime. But not like this pop in 2024 (above). These two subsets are the meat of the market, and aren’t swayed by radical outliers that would tweak the averages.
Starting right after the Super Bowl, there was a huge swing from $1,252/sf to $1,515/sf in the $3M – $4M category, and it has stayed elevated until the last couple of weeks. The reason for pricing to relax a little?
The number of unsold listings are starting to stack up now:
There isn’t any reason for home buyers to think mortgage rates are going to drop significantly this year. If there were one or two Fed cuts, it would only cause mortgage rates to get back into the 6s which isn’t enough to compensate for the sky-high prices that buyers are seeing today.
Then we have the changes from the commission lawsuit, which will have a clunky start over the next few months as buyers grapple with hiring a buyer-agent in writing just to tour a house. All we need is the Padres to go on a run this summer and we will have all the excuses we need for a very sluggish rest of the year.
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 15, 2024 | 2024, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim |
The first quarter of 2024 is the only 1Q in recent history to have increases in BOTH the number of listings AND the median list price. Previously, increases in pricing had a corresponding dip in the number of listings available for buyers to consider.
If you are like me, you’ve seen a noticeable surge in seller optimism in 2024. It’s not just the median list price that is up 8%, doesn’t it seem like everything is $200,000 higher than last year?
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 11, 2024 | Inventory, North County Coastal
The NSDCC houses for sale have had a median list price over $4,000,000 all year.
How is the upper half of the market performing?
While the $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 market has seen continued upward pressure on pricing (click below on more…), the $4,000,000+ list pricing has been correcting – and it’s working!
The average LP/sf has dropped 10% since January, and the number of active (unsold) listings is trickling up. But the average days-on-market is settling down, and the number of pendings look great. There have already been 42 NSDCC sales closed this year over $4,000,000!
Fun fact:
NSDCC Active Listings Priced Over $10,000,000 Today: 46
NSDCC Listings Sold Over $10,000,000, Last 12 Months: 43
It is a very affluent marketplace!
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 21, 2024 | 2024, Frenzy, Market Conditions, North County Coastal
Another good way to anticipate the market trends is to check the direction of the SP:LP ratio:
NSDCC Monthly Sales and SP:LP Ratio
| Month |
# of Sales |
Median LP |
Median SP |
SP:LP |
| Jan 2022 |
149 |
$2,099,999 |
$2,200,000 |
105% |
| Feb |
169 |
$2,099,999 |
$2,300,000 |
110% |
| Mar |
219 |
$2,384,000 |
$2,500,000 |
105% |
| Apr |
239 |
$2,299,000 |
$2,450,000 |
107% |
| May |
230 |
$2,300,000 |
$2,432,500 |
106% |
| Jun |
203 |
$2,200,000 |
$2,330,000 |
105% |
| Jul |
165 |
$2,199,000 |
$2,249,000 |
102% |
| Aug |
177 |
$2,100,000 |
$2,100,000 |
100% |
| Sep |
146 |
$2,037,499 |
$1,940,000 |
96% |
| Oct |
124 |
$2,225,000 |
$2,125,000 |
96% |
| Nov |
123 |
$1,925,000 |
$1,860,000 |
97% |
| Dec |
110 |
$2,091,500 |
$1,892,500 |
90% |
| Jan 2023 |
105 |
$1,995,000 |
$2,000,000 |
100% |
| Feb |
112 |
$2,150,000 |
$2,040,000 |
95% |
| Mar |
191 |
$2,199,888 |
$2,200,000 |
100% |
| Apr |
165 |
$2,199,000 |
$2,180,000 |
99% |
| May |
178 |
$2,300,000 |
$2,362,500 |
103% |
| Jun |
160 |
$2,199,500 |
$2,257,500 |
103% |
| Jul |
170 |
$1,998,750 |
$1,961,250 |
99% |
| Aug |
198 |
$2,224,500 |
$2,217,500 |
100% |
| Sep |
154 |
$2,272,500 |
$2,201,250 |
97% |
| Oct |
140 |
$2,250,000 |
$2,182,500 |
97% |
| Nov |
117 |
$2,325,000 |
$2,200,000 |
95% |
| Dec |
87 |
$2,100,000 |
$2,050,000 |
98% |
| Jan 2024 |
108 |
$2,200,000 |
$2,267,500 |
103% |
| Feb |
97 |
$2,395,000 |
$2,500,000 |
104% |
Pricing looks strong – similar to the March-May, 2022 era, which was the hottest frenzy ever!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 13, 2024 | North County Coastal, Over List |
There were 23 buyers who paid over the list price last month. There were 29 in the previous month, but because there were 20 fewer sales in December, the percentage looks much larger.
Cash buyers purchased 41 of the 107 sales, or 38%.
Fifteen of the sales were round-tripped (buyer and seller represented by the same agent). Thirteen of the sales had zero days on market. Of those, six were round-tripped.
With all the desperation among realtors due to the lower volume, you’d think the shenanigans would be rising faster, but those numbers are fairly normal. Last January, there were nine of the 105 sales that had zero days-on-market.
Our lousy pricing metrics stayed towards the higher end of the 10% range:
NSDCC Monthly Sales and Pricing
With the hot CPI report today, mortgage rates should be heading higher and take some of the buzz out of the marketplace. Get an FHA or VA mortgage and save 3/4%!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 8, 2024 | 2024, Frenzy, North County Coastal |
On Monday morning, these were the counts of active and pending listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
Actives: 312
Pendings: 149
This morning, the counts are:
Actives: 286 (-26)
Pendings: 164 (+15)
These are pre-Super Bowl numbers and it’s been pouring rain for a week!
What’s going to happen once we get into the more-traditional selling season of March, April, and May?
These blog posts are uploaded onto my LinkedIn page, and it was there yesterday that Carl asked what my crystal ball said about pricing this year.
It’s going to keep going up!
The houses that aren’t well presented and are sloppy on price are going to sit. But those that have something special about them, and/or are presented well and have an attractive price are going to find a buyer in the first week or two.
NSDCC Supporting Data:
2023 Median List Price: $2,199,000
2023 Median Sales Price: $2,157,500
January, 2024 Median List Price: $2,200,000
January, 2024 Median Sales Price: $2,275,000
The median list price of today’s 164 pendings: $2,499,950
Some buyers are getting deals, mostly on the scratch-and-dent homes where sellers and listing agents didn’t do much, if anything, to prepare the home for sale. But look at the January median sales price – it’s higher than the median list price!
Here we go again!
We are already on our way to a +10% increase in pricing – and it’s only the first week of February!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 7, 2024 | North County Coastal
While it would appear that there was a big jump in new listings last month, the January count wasn’t unusual – it’s just inching its way back to a more-normal pace:
January New Listings – Totals of Three Areas Above
2019: 234
2020: 186
2021: 157
2022: 113
2023: 101
2024: 106
The pricing leveled off when rates jumped in 2Q22, with more volatility lately:
Some buyers are getting discounts too:
Get Good Help!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 6, 2024 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check
January Detached-Home Sales & Pricing, La Jolla to Carlsbad
It was in June, 2022 that Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that spiked mortgage rates would “reset” the “overheated” pandemic housing market.
Last month had the highest pricing metrics AND the highest January mortgage rate in recent history!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 26, 2024 | Bidding Wars, Contests, North County Coastal, Spring Kick |
After a disappointing number of sales last month (87, the lowest monthly count ever), January is poised to reach 100+ sales. There are 128 houses in escrow today, and 39 of those were marked ‘pending’ prior to January 1st so probably 20+ of those stand a good chance of closing by the end of the month:
NSDCC Monthly Sales
Although the severe drop in sales recently can be attributed to higher mortgage rates, higher prices, etc., you can’t sell what’s not for sale:
NSDCC January Listings
With the number of listings up to 183 this month, we should reach the 205 listings we had last January. Will the last few people on our list still have a fighting chance, or should we hand the Padres tickets to Joe?
Here are the contestants:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
196 Derek
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223 Joe
With slightly more inventory, similar pricing and rates, and pent-up everything, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot as it was last year. This week, I had buyers survive an 8-offer bidding war and win by submitting the now-customary $100,000+ over the list price, and there have been crazier sales already:
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 3, 2024 | 2024, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Why You Should List With Jim |
There have only been 83 NSDCC sales recorded in December, 2023, which means we may not make it to 100 closings. January isn’t looking too good either, and from what I can find, we’ve never had less than 100 monthly sales, let alone in back-to-back months. But it’s coming.
It puts the squeeze on everyone.
Buyers lose faith that there will be more homes to consider and end up jumping at one. Sellers either think they can get away with any price and tack on an extra 5% to 10% over the comps from 2021….or they give up altogether and decide to wait until the market “gets better”.
Even with a little extra inventory, the market is going to look and feel uncertain. Is it going up or down?
When we are having the fewest sales ever, the the evidence is thin, and the results vary!
NSDCC December Sales Under $4,000,000:
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+ OVER their list price: 12
Number of sales that closed for $100,000+ UNDER their list price: 17
Get Good Help!
