Here’s a visual comparison of last year’s counts of NSDCC weekly active and pending listings, and how we are doing this year.
Mortgage rates had bumped up from 4.47% in April to 4.83% in October, but the inventory kept growing too, which didn’t help. The pendings are a better gauge than sales for showing when the buying decisions were being made, and you can see that last year, buyers started losing interest after mid-June.
The bulging inventory in the second half of 2018 also left us with an inventory hangover. We started the year with 35% more homes on the market than the previous year, which led to a slower start in 2019.
But the weekly pendings have strengthened lately, and have been tracking about the same counts as we had in 2018 – probably due to lower rates. Last month, the Freddie Mac average 30-year rate was 4.14%.
If rates stay the same as they are today, we really should see the season extend past June – because it got whacked last year. But high pricing and more inventory could spoil the momentum too.
Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?
Oops, the pendings count stalled:
NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings
Week
2018
2019
1st Week of April
346
331
2nd Week of April
336
342
3rd Week of April
331
341
4th Week of April
353
353
5th Week of April
362
367
1st Week of May
355
364
2nd Week of May
386
362
We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?
Want another sign?
At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.
But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.
The first third of 2019 has been better than expected. Sales are only 6% below the average for the last five years, and the median sales price hasn’t dropped much:
NSDCC Sales, January – April
Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
# of Listings
2015
920
$1,130,000
25
1,811
2016
880
$1,124,500
24
1,978
2017
886
$1,200,000
20
1,782
2018
847
$1,316,000
17
1,702
2019
797
$1,300,000
25
1,760
A few more listings this year, but no flood, and limiting sales somewhat just because of the lack of choice. The tight supply keeps everything in check – price swings aren’t as obvious either.
There are more soundbites about sales and pricing being down overall, but the market for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad is hanging in there.
There was an extra business day this year, and there will be more sales reported over the next few days – if those two balance each other out, we’re only about 5% under last year’s sales count, and the pricing trend is higher:
Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$-per-sf
Avg. DOM
2016
307
$1,120,000
$518/sf
40
2017
279
$1,282,131
$535/sf
44
2018
272
$1,285,225
$567/sf
40
2019
257
$1,350,000
$585/sf
44
Angelo Mozilo said he never saw a soft landing, but if mortgage rates stay close to 4% and sellers can live with the same price as the last guy got, then this might be the first soft landing in history.
The selling season should hold its own, and it will be the off-season where we could see more dramatic swings due to less volume.
But the recent flurry of activity has us catching up. The pendings count today is only six behind the count on April 2nd of last year (340 vs 346).
The published March sales counts are going to be disappointing, even if we have a bunch of late-reporters. But the April/May sales should be healthier!
Mortgage rates have continued their slide, and lenders should be offering fixed-rate loans with rates starting in the threes again, with little or no points! The new pendings are flowing, but we still haven’t seen a flood of new listings:
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales in March
Year
March Listings
Median LP
March Sales
Median SP
2015
497
$1,275,000
298
$1,137,500
2016
532
$1,470,000
252
$1,143,665
2017
505
$1,395,000
258
$1,074,000
2018
446
$1,549,000
259
$1,397,500
2019
396
$1,514,497
153
$1,320,000
The latest numbers are month-to-date, and will increase considerably with four business days to go. But the March sales will end up well under last year’s count, though the lower rates should help boost sales in April and May.
There are threes on the street:
For those who want to prepare for making an offer and would like to review our contracts, the California Association of Realtors have made available a sample copy with explanations:
Here’s an example of the premium paid for the upgraded one-story houses with a potential granny unit and no HOA/M-R. Two-story houses that are 25% bigger are selling for less in this neighborhood:
We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of active-to-pending listings to be a sign of a healthy market. Though pricing is much higher than in the recent past, we’re under 3.0 is all but the highest-end areas:
Here are the Actives/Pendings stats for each area:
Area
Zip
ACTIVES
PENDINGS
ACT/PEND
SOLDS Last 30 days
Cardiff
92007
21
11
1.9
3
Carlsbad NW
92008
42
15
2.8
12
Carlsbad SE
92009
72
38
1.9
29
Carlsbad NE
92010
25
11
2.3
12
Carlsbad SW
92011
41
27
1.5
18
Del Mar
92014
78
18
4.3
9
Encinitas
92024
74
43
1.7
23
La Jolla
92037
171
32
5.3
18
RSF
67+91
179
23
7.8
8
Solana Bch
92075
25
6
4.2
5
Carmel Vly
92130
80
37
2.2
31
All Above
All
808
261
3.1
168
The first half of 2018 was very active, so just to stay close would be a win.
Sales in January caught up with last year’s count, and the year-over-year February sales are stronger than expected too – we had MORE sales in 2019! (updated later on March 1st)
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