by Jim the Realtor | Jan 7, 2022 | 2022, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Over List |
Impressive momentum to wrap up the year, with almost half of the buyers feeling the need to pay over list:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price
January: 38%
February: 43%
March: 53%
April: 55%
May: 54%
June: 59%
July: 64%
August: 55%
September: 41%
October: 45%
November: 48%
December: 48%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Have the higher-end buyers figured it out that paying over list could be a ruse though?
Percentage Of Sales Over List Price by Price Range
| Price Range |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
Aug |
Sept |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
| $0 – $1.0M |
76% |
79% |
89% |
88% |
89% |
88% |
64% |
78% |
71% |
88% |
| $1.0M – $1.5M |
68% |
78% |
84% |
75% |
74% |
74% |
37% |
64% |
64% |
76% |
| $1.5M – $2.0M |
66% |
66% |
72% |
66% |
82% |
73% |
61% |
58% |
56% |
50% |
| $2.0M – $3.0M |
54% |
32% |
34% |
66% |
56% |
56% |
36% |
38% |
46% |
20% |
| $3M+ |
16% |
22% |
22% |
17% |
26% |
19% |
24% |
7% |
22% |
13% |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The December sales were a little soft, historically, but the inventory has been decimated:
NSDCC December Sales
2017: 224
2018: 196
2019: 227
2020: 290
2021: 182
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NSDCC Average and Median Prices
| Month |
# of Sales |
Avg. LP |
Avg. SP |
Median LP |
Median SP |
| Feb |
224 |
$2,298,797 |
$2,257,334 |
$1,719,500 |
$1,758,000 |
| March |
252 |
$2,295,629 |
$2,260,524 |
$1,800,000 |
$1,825,000 |
| April |
357 |
$2,396,667 |
$2,403,962 |
$1,799,900 |
$1,828,000 |
| May |
300 |
$2,596,992 |
$2,581,715 |
$1,900,000 |
$1,994,500 |
| June |
348 |
$2,509,175 |
$2,537,953 |
$1,900,000 |
$1,967,500 |
| July |
311 |
$2,421,326 |
$2,442,738 |
$1,795,000 |
$1,855,000 |
| Aug |
268 |
$2,415,075 |
$2,438,934 |
$1,897,000 |
$1,950,000 |
| Sept |
278 |
$2,479,440 |
$2,445,817 |
$1,899,000 |
$1,987,500 |
| Oct |
248 |
$2,754,470 |
$2,705,071 |
$1,899,000 |
$1,899,500 |
| Nov |
199 |
$2,713,693 |
$2,707,359 |
$1,999,000 |
$2,100,000 |
| Dec |
189 |
$2,686,126 |
$2,664,391 |
$1,985,000 |
$2,157,500 |
The median list price dropped and the median sales price went up!
The median sales price is 9% higher than the median list price!
The average LP and SP were almost identical for the second month in a row.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 22, 2021 | Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Del Mar, Encinitas, Forecasts, La Jolla, North County Coastal, Rancho Santa Fe, Zillow |
The Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are down 1-2 points from their previous guesses last month, but still very strong. This is their third consecutive month with similar forecasts:
NW Carlsbad, 92008:
SE Carlsbad, 92009:
NE Carlsbad, 92010:
SW Carlsbad, 92011:
Carmel Valley, 92130:
Del Mar, 92014:
Encinitas, 92024:
La Jolla:
Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:
For those who are steeped in real estate history, it’s hard to comprehend how prices could increase 25% to 30% this year – to think pricing could go up ANOTHER 20% next year is straining the brain!
I think it will happen, and be accomplished by mid-summer.
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 6, 2021 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
There might be a few stragglers left to report, but this gives us a good reflection of how the summer wrapped up after the frenzy started cooling in June:
NSDCC September Sales
Remember when sales prices were lower than list prices?
- The median sales price in September is 5.3% higher than the median list price.
- The median sales price rose 34% year-over-year.
- The sales count is the third highest ever.
If there were more homes for sale, nobody would be talking about a cooldown!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 29, 2021 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
It’s early, and the final September sales count will probably wind up around 260 or so, which was normal in the 2013-2017 era. However, the pricing is nuts!
The median sales price is 4.5% higher than the median list price!
If there were more homes for sale, nobody would be talking about a cooldown!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 12, 2021 | Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
The NSDCC Monthly Sales were hopped up in April and June of this year, but are now getting back in line with previous years. Is the demand ‘cooling off’, or is it because we don’t have enough homes for sale?
NSDCC Listings & Sales
| Year |
June Listings |
July Listings |
August Listings |
3 mo. total |
August Sales |
Median SP |
| 2018 |
476 |
447 |
433 |
1,356 |
275 |
$1,325,000 |
| 2019 |
435 |
459 |
418 |
1,312 |
262 |
$1,354,500 |
| 2020 |
448 |
487 |
457 |
1,392 |
350 |
$1,419,812 |
| 2021 |
386 |
357 |
307 |
1,050 |
267 |
$1,950,000 |
If the number of listings between June-August is usually around 1,350, we are 22% below that this year.
Yet the number of August sales is about normal. But the 37% YoY increase in the median sales price suggests that the demand is not only strong but that we’d have more sales if there were just more listings!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 10, 2021 | Actives/Pendings, Frenzy Monitor, North County Coastal |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
Our Big Three – Carmel Valley, Encinitas, and SE Carlsbad – continue to carry substantially more pendings than active listings, but both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe have similar pending counts, which is incredible given their much-higher price points:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
The average days on market is creeping upward, but still no big concerns. There will always be sellers who would rather wait for the lucky sale, than adjust their price – and longer average market times indicate more sellers doing the former:
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range has been the hottest all year, but their average DOM is at its high – while the rest are well below theirs!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 2, 2021 | 2021, Frenzy, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check |
This year, we are ahead of both of the previous years in total sales, in spite of having 14% fewer listings – and prices being 30% to 40% higher!
NSDCC Listings & Sales, Jan 1 to Aug 31
| Year |
# of Listings Between Jan 1 – Aug 31 |
# of Sales |
S/L % |
Median SP |
| 2019 |
3,585 |
1,922 |
54% |
$1,310,000 |
| 2020 |
3,245 |
1,846 |
57% |
$1,409,677 |
| 2021 |
2,805 |
2,245 |
80% |
$1,875,000 |
Prices probably need to go a bit higher to slow this thing down!
The NSDCC Weekly Pendings are tracking similar to 2019, so there should still be some gas in the tank:
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 21, 2021 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
The higher-end sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla were fairly consistent through 2020 – then they exploded this year, with the $2,000,000+ sales totaling more than double the counts of previous years!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 10, 2021 | Frenzy, Inventory, North County Coastal, Virus |
And only three for sale under $1,100,000!
It’s not the end of the world, though.
It’s not even the end of homes for sale under a million – there will be others.
But it is the velocity of the frenzy that is astonishing.
Detached-Homes For Sale Under $1,000,000 Between La Jolla and Carlsbad, 2nd Week of August:
2018: 115
2019: 101
2020: 33
2021: 0
Leading up to 2020, the market was balanced, orderly, and behaving about like you’d expect. Buyers were critical, and there were plenty of homes not selling.
Then a virus hits, and blows the roof off!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 17, 2021 | Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
The number of NSDCC first-half sales are 15% higher than the 2017-2019 average number of sales, and
THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE IS +32% YoY:
NSDCC Sales, Jan 1 to June 30
| Year |
# of 1H Sales |
Median SP |
# of Sales Over $2M |
Over $2M/Total Sales % |
| 2017 |
1,585 |
$1,225,000 |
292 |
18% |
| 2018 |
1,411 |
$1,325,000 |
311 |
22% |
| 2019 |
1,379 |
$1,300,000 |
298 |
22% |
| 2020 |
1,145 |
$1,400,000 |
267 |
23% |
| 2021 |
1,674 |
$1,850,000 |
737 |
44% |
In 2009, there were 756 NSDCC sales for the entire year, and only 76 of those were over $2,000,000.
In 2021, we’ve had 737 sales over $2,000,000 in the first six months!
