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NSDCC Monthly Sales

The NSDCC inventory has been a perfect match for the heightened demand of 2021.  With roughly 20% fewer homes for sale, the scarcity has energized buyers to grab anything that’s close to being a good match – while the pickier buyers wait patiently.

This month’s detached-home sales will likely set another new record, and set the stage for the summer market when California should be at 100%.  Will that means more sellers will feel safe enough to put their home on the market?  If so, it should really juice the frenzy further and cause sales to soar.

The demand appears steady – price-wise, if sellers can stay in their shoes, it should be a crazy summer too!

We had 347 sales last month. Could we hit 400 sales in May?  It’s possible!

Max Sales Efficiency

Yesterday we saw that more than half of the NSDCC houses sold over the last couple of months have closed for a price that’s higher than their list price.

Another difference from previous years is the efficiency.

Typically, there are only around 55% to 60% of the listings that actually sell each year – mostly due to agents re-freshing their listings repeatedly, sellers changing their mind, and wrong pricing.

What a huge difference in the Covid Era.

We have fewer homes for sale, but more of them are selling:

NSDCC Listings Between December 1st and January 31st

Year
Number of Listings
Number of Listings Pending or Sold By March 12th
%
2020
526
253
48%
2021
460
328
71%

Before Covid was declared, we had come into 2020 with low rates and renewed optimism, and the market was active as participants were finding their way, price-wise. There were 48% of the early listings that found a buyer before Covid kicked in on March 12th.

This year, the higher-end market is healthy, but the Under-$2,000,000 is blistering hot:

NSDCC Listings Under $2,000,000 Between December 1st and January 31st

Year
Number of Listings Under $2M
Number of Listings Pending or Sold By March 12th
%
2020
329
206
63%
2021
237
210
89%

89%!

When you are telling your grandkids about THE GREATEST REAL ESTATE FRENZY OF ALL-TIME, come back to this page!

Active Listings & Sales History


It is unusual to have so few active listings for sale.  Yet, we are having more sales than ever, with the quality homes all selling in the first week – leaving very few active listings.

Casual observers don’t find any decent homes just lying around, making it difficult to stay engaged.  You gotta really want to buy a house these days, which should help keep the demand in check – it’s just for serious players only.

But there are plenty of those, and we should hit October levels of sales in each of the next few months:

NSDCC 1Q Sales By Area

Here’s the first quarter breakdown so you can see how your area compares with others:

NSDCC First Quarter Sales By Area

Town or Area
Zip Code
New Listings, 1Q
Closed Sales
Median SP
Active Listings Today
Cardiff
92007
34
27
$2,050,000
13
NW Carlsbad
92008
62
39
$1,430,000
17
SE Carlsbad
92009
149
98
$1,367,500
15
NE Carlsbad
92010
31
24
$1,018,500
3
SW Carlsbad
92011
50
43
$1,339,000
4
Carmel Valley
92130
131
108
$1,757,500
23
Del Mar
92014
60
25
$2,200,000
29
Encinitas
92024
144
99
$1,775,000
34
La Jolla
92037
130
88
$2,580,000
90
RSF
92067
100
70
$2,925,000
84
Solana Beach
92075
27
18
$2,300,000
12
NSDCC
All Above
918
639
$1,787,000
324

In yesterday’s 1Q history, there wasn’t any year that got down to a ratio of 2:1 new-listings-to-sales.

All of these except Del Mar are much stronger than 2:1!

The number of active listings is bleak, if you are a buyer, and glorious if you are a seller!

If we do get our regular seasonal increase in inventory over the next two months, it should goose sales even higher. The buyers who have been in the hunt but haven’t won a bidding war yet are highly motivated to get it done!

NSDCC 1Q Sales

While it feels like the inventory-less frenzy, there have been enough houses coming to market to set a new record for the number of 1Q sales:

NSDCC Sales, First Quarter

Year
New Listings
Closed Sales, 1Q
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
2012
479
230
$811,750
76
2013
1,290
422
$842,950
39
2014
1,234
576
$1,008,750
54
2015
1,318
634
$1,160,400
54
2016
1,448
572
$1,124,500
56
2017
1,296
604
$1,175,000
52
2018
1,230
569
$1,323,000
19
2019
1,278
535
$1,290,000
27
2020
1,081
572
$1,420,500
24
2021
939
661
$1,800,000
14

The MEDIAN SALES PRICE HAS GONE UP 27% during the covid era!

Inventory Watch

Did you get concerned about the pending index falling another 10% last week?

The U.S. housing market is suffering from its lowest supply in history, and that is taking an increasingly hard toll on sales.

Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year.

“The demand for a home purchase is widespread, multiple offers are prevalent, and days-on-market are swift,” said the Realtor’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun. “But contracts are not clicking due to record-low inventory.”

The pendings between La Jolla and Carlsbad are doing just fine. In spite of the total number of NSDCC homes for sale being fewer than usual, people are still buying at a torrid pace:

Our market was helped by having more homes for sale.

New NSDCC Listings in the First Quarter:

2019: 1,278

2020: 922

2021: 1,081

After the first two months of this year, the total number of NSDCC new listings was 26% behind 2019.

But we had a big March, and the number of new listings in 1Q21 is only 15% behind those in 2019.

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NSDCC March Sales – Preliminary

Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the NAR. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year. There were just 1.03 million homes for sale at the end of February, a 29.5% drop compared with February 2020. That is the largest annual decline ever and the lowest supply on record.

Yesterday’s real estate news was filled with drops and declines, but around here we’re doing fine:

NSDCC March Sales – Preliminary

Year
March Closings
Median Sales Price
Median Days-On-Market
2019
211
$1,299,999
17
2020
206
$1,445,000
12
2021
241
$1,810,000
9

The median sales price rose 25% year-over-year!

Pricing Spurt

Yesterday’s Case-Shiller Index was a reflection of November, December, and January market data.  Here’s a local supplement to help map out what’s coming – and this is only through February:

This was in a fairly tight range of $400/sf to $450/sf for a couple of years. But six months ago, this metric went ballistic, and in that short of time it’s catapulted well into the $500s!

NSDCC Actives & Pendings

Previously we experienced a healthy market when actives outnumbered pendings 2:1. Then as the market heated up, we got used to the 1:1 ratio. Now we have areas where the ratio is more than 1:2!

NSDCC Detached-Home Active and Pending Listings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives
Pendings
Cardiff
92007
10
14
NW Carlsbad
92008
15
24
SE Carlsbad
92009
20
48
NE Carlsbad
92010
4
11
SW Carlsbad
92011
4
19
Carmel Valley
92130
25
38
Del Mar
92014
32
25
Encinitas
92024
36
48
La Jolla
92037
95
45
RSF
67+91
87
50
Solana Beach
92075
8
9
NSDCC
All Above
336
331
West RB
92127
24
63
Scripps Ranch
92131
6
25

What can buyers do?

Going inland doesn’t help – the 92127 and 92131 are hotter than ever.

Just go up in price – La Jolla is nice this time of year!

We will re-visit these numbers in the coming months.

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