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Over List, December

Impressive momentum to wrap up the year, with almost half of the buyers feeling the need to pay over list:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

November: 48%

December: 48%

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Have the higher-end buyers figured it out that paying over list could be a ruse though?

Percentage Of Sales Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
64%
78%
71%
88%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
37%
64%
64%
76%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
61%
58%
56%
50%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
36%
38%
46%
20%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%
24%
7%
22%
13%

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The December sales were a little soft, historically, but the inventory has been decimated:

NSDCC December Sales

2017: 224

2018: 196

2019: 227

2020: 290

2021: 182

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NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500

The median list price dropped and the median sales price went up!

The median sales price is 9% higher than the median list price!

The average LP and SP were almost identical for the second month in a row.

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Zillow Local Forecasts

The Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are down 1-2 points from their previous guesses last month, but still very strong. This is their third consecutive month with similar forecasts:

NW Carlsbad, 92008:

SE Carlsbad, 92009:

NE Carlsbad, 92010:

SW Carlsbad, 92011:

Carmel Valley, 92130:

Del Mar, 92014:

Encinitas, 92024:

La Jolla:

Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:

For those who are steeped in real estate history, it’s hard to comprehend how prices could increase 25% to 30% this year – to think pricing could go up ANOTHER 20% next year is straining the brain!

I think it will happen, and be accomplished by mid-summer.

NSDCC September Sales

There might be a few stragglers left to report, but this gives us a good reflection of how the summer wrapped up after the frenzy started cooling in June:

NSDCC September Sales

Remember when sales prices were lower than list prices?

  • The median sales price in September is 5.3% higher than the median list price.
  • The median sales price rose 34% year-over-year.
  • The sales count is the third highest ever.

If there were more homes for sale, nobody would be talking about a cooldown!

Inventory Shortage

The NSDCC Monthly Sales were hopped up in April and June of this year, but are now getting back in line with previous years. Is the demand ‘cooling off’, or is it because we don’t have enough homes for sale?

NSDCC Listings & Sales

Year
June Listings
July Listings
August Listings
3 mo. total
August Sales
Median SP
2018
476
447
433
1,356
275
$1,325,000
2019
435
459
418
1,312
262
$1,354,500
2020
448
487
457
1,392
350
$1,419,812
2021
386
357
307
1,050
267
$1,950,000

If the number of listings between June-August is usually around 1,350, we are 22% below that this year.

Yet the number of August sales is about normal. But the 37% YoY increase in the median sales price suggests that the demand is not only strong but that we’d have more sales if there were just more listings!

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

Our Big Three – Carmel Valley, Encinitas, and SE Carlsbad – continue to carry substantially more pendings than active listings, but both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe have similar pending counts, which is incredible given their much-higher price points:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

The average days on market is creeping upward, but still no big concerns. There will always be sellers who would rather wait for the lucky sale, than adjust their price – and longer average market times indicate more sellers doing the former:

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range has been the hottest all year, but their average DOM is at its high – while the rest are well below theirs!

NSDCC Year-to-Date

This year, we are ahead of both of the previous years in total sales, in spite of having 14% fewer listings – and prices being 30% to 40% higher!

NSDCC Listings & Sales, Jan 1 to Aug 31

Year
# of Listings Between Jan 1 – Aug 31
# of Sales
S/L %
Median SP
2019
3,585
1,922
54%
$1,310,000
2020
3,245
1,846
57%
$1,409,677
2021
2,805
2,245
80%
$1,875,000

Prices probably need to go a bit higher to slow this thing down!

The NSDCC Weekly Pendings are tracking similar to 2019, so there should still be some gas in the tank:

None For Sale Under $1,000,000

And only three for sale under $1,100,000!

It’s not the end of the world, though.

It’s not even the end of homes for sale under a million – there will be others.

But it is the velocity of the frenzy that is astonishing.

Detached-Homes For Sale Under $1,000,000 Between La Jolla and Carlsbad, 2nd Week of August:

2018: 115

2019: 101

2020:  33

2021:   0

Leading up to 2020, the market was balanced, orderly, and behaving about like you’d expect.  Buyers were critical, and there were plenty of homes not selling.

Then a virus hits, and blows the roof off!

NSDCC First-Half Report

The number of NSDCC first-half sales are 15% higher than the 2017-2019 average number of sales, and

THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE IS +32% YoY:

NSDCC Sales, Jan 1 to June 30

Year
# of 1H Sales
Median SP
# of Sales Over $2M
Over $2M/Total Sales %
2017
1,585
$1,225,000
292
18%
2018
1,411
$1,325,000
311
22%
2019
1,379
$1,300,000
298
22%
2020
1,145
$1,400,000
267
23%
2021
1,674
$1,850,000
737
44%

In 2009, there were 756 NSDCC sales for the entire year, and only 76 of those were over $2,000,000.

In 2021, we’ve had 737 sales over $2,000,000 in the first six months!

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