by Jim the Realtor | Jan 17, 2025 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
An article in the North County Times from late 2005.
Those were the days of low home prices and easier financing (though not as easy as the no-doc days in 2005-2008). As a result, it was the real Golden Age because everyone could participate.
The last five years were juiced with ultra-low mortgage rates and now the market is restricted to the affluent only due to the much-higher prices. But the returns were similar (or better in Encinitas and RSF) to what they were in the 2000-2005 era:
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 19, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Monthly Sales Count, North County Coastal
It looks like the NSDCC market will survive the usual end-of-the-year blues just fine.
We should match last November’s sales count (even with higher pricing), and combine that with the improvement in the days-on-market and it makes me think the momentum is building for a healthy 2025!
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 3, 2024 | 2025, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Spring Kick |
The current market conditions are fascinating.
There were 141 NSDCC listings that went pending in October, and 44 of them have already closed escrow! It leaves 133 listings in the pending category so the closed sales in November and December probably won’t set any records, but if there were 100 closings each month then I’d be impressed.
How about the closed sales? Smoking hot, compared to last year:
NSDCC September and October Sales and Pricing, 2023 vs. 2024
It all points to the 2025 Selling Season being robust, to say the least. It is going to start in January, and there might even be sellers who want to get a jump on it and list their home in December!
Here’s one more category (rich people fleeing) to add to my reasons why 2025 is going to bust loose:
A growing number of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the country in the run-up to Tuesday’s election, with many fearing political and social unrest regardless of who wins, according to immigration attorneys.
Attorneys and advisors to family offices and high-net-worth families said they’re seeing record demand from clients looking for second passports or long-term residencies abroad. While talk of moving overseas after an election is common, wealth advisors said this time many of the wealthy are already taking action.
“We’ve never seen demand like we see now,” said Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, which advises the wealthy on international migration.
Volek said that for the first time, wealthy Americans are far and away the company’s largest client base, accounting for 20% of its business, or more than any other nationality. He said the number of Americans making plans to move abroad is up at least 30% over last year.
David Lesperance, managing partner of Lesperance and Associates, the international tax and immigration firm, said the number of Americans hiring him for possible moves overseas has roughly tripled over last year.
A survey by Arton Capital, which advises the wealthy on immigration programs, found that 53% of American millionaires say they’re more likely to leave the U.S. after the election, no matter who wins. Younger millionaires were the most likely to leave, with 64% of millionaires between 18 and 29 saying they were “very interested” in seeking so-called golden visas through a residency-by-investment program overseas.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/wealthy-americans-plans-leaving-united-states.html
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 31, 2024 | 2025, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Surge, North County Coastal, Spring Kick
NSDCC Monthly Detached-Home Sales, 2024
Last October, there were 140 NSDCC sales with a median sales price of $2,182,500 ($810/sf).
This month’s final count should be 160+ sales and a median sales price that’s +10% above last October!
Statistically, the political circus hasn’t caused ANY drop off in sales or pricing!
It probably means the momentum will be hot going into January too!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 26, 2024 | 2024, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check |
Remember a few months ago when both Biden and the Padres were flailing and I said that the last half of the year would be so full of distractions that we’d be lucky to see 100 sales per month?
How ya feeling now?
Last month was spectacular and it looks like this month’s sales will beat the 154 from last September! There were 46 sales closed in the last week of September, 2023, and currently there are 60 pendings that went into escrow prior to 9/1/2024 so another 46 sales this month looks very doable.
The 123 sales above are today’s count.
Add 46 to it and we could reach 169 sales – and the pricing metrics are strong too!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 4, 2024 | North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Rob Dawg suggested that we look at the quartile pricing again. The list pricing (above) has been very comparable to last year, but those are the unsolds. Below are the quartiles for the NSDCC monthly sales:
Pricing measured by quartiles is still above last year, and now the mortgage rates are below where they were towards the end of 2023.
Will pricing hold up the rest of the year? Probably. It will be the number of sales that will fluctuate first.
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 18, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Why You Should List With Jim |
The other day I popped off about how the market was deteriorating and we’d be lucky to see 100+ monthly sales the rest of the way in 2024. What do I know? Here is the sales data for this month so far:
There are two solid weeks left in July – could we get to 200 sales this month?
If so, it will leave the pendings drawer a little light – we’re down to 169 homes in escrow today. But there are 505 actives, and when the coming-soons are included, the count is up to 528 detached-homes for buyers to choose from!
The June median list and sales prices were outliers – the rest of the pricing data looks steady, though the buyers are looking for discounts now – and judging by the 96%, the sellers are obliging!
My new listing (below) went over list price though, and I have buyers in a 5-offer bidding war on a different home right now so there is plenty of hot action:
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 5, 2024 | 2024, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Here are four tepid responses to the question on whether home prices will drop this summer:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/will-home-prices-finally-drop-this-summer-heres-what-experts-say/
The lame last paragraph sums it up:
The bottom line
The real estate market seems unlikely to experience significant price decreases nationally this summer, but it’s possible that in specific local markets, there will be dips. Still, until conditions change, like with more housing inventory, it could be tough for prices to decrease. Even then, it could take time for pent-up demand to temper, but it’s possible that overall affordability at least increases, such as if mortgage rates drop.
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You can’t come to much of a conclusion about summer pricing in July, but let’s check the data! How we measure the pricing has been strong all year between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
The world is too crazy for something not to give. My opinion of the pricing trend above is that the higher-priced superior homes are gaining in market share (who wants to buy a dump in this environment?) and it’s providing a head-fake that disguises the truth.
What’s going to give is the number of sales – we may not see 152 monthly sales the rest of 2024.
The commission debacle will be discouraging to the marketplace, mortgage rates aren’t going down enough to make a difference, and the political firestorm will get worse. The only way a buyer will ignore all of that and keep buying is if they see the perfect home.
There will be some nice deals for those who are willing to dig them out.
But I think by the screwy ways we measure it, the NSDCC pricing will look fairly strong, but the best precursor of the future – the number of sales – will be dropping the rest of the year, which will create even more softness. Buyers won’t feel confident about the price they are paying unless they have some decent comps to rely on, and those will be few and far between.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 28, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check
It’s the last business day of June, and while there will be a few more sales added to this total, there will be at least 10% fewer closings than last month:
updated June 30th
The median pricing is higher this month, but I don’t think that means home prices in general are rising. It’s probably because the more desirable properties are the ones selling.
The red numbers suggest the market is slowing down.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 4, 2024 | 2024, Graphs of Market Indicators, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check
None of the pricing metrics are great but at least they demonstrate the trends over time. These graphs above are showing the latest data, including last month, and it’s all fairly positive….for now. With the extra inventory, buyers aren’t going to pay crazy money unless they see the perfect house. Sellers aren’t going to give them away though, so the trend for the rest of 2024 should be flat.
These graphs are interactive so scroll over to see the numbers.
There is extra unsold inventory but nobody is going to call this a flood, especially vs. 2019:
Sales will suffer as long as rates and prices are high. Have we gotten used to having fewer sales yet? The trend is going to last a while – probably for years to come:
Populations from the 2020 Census:
Carlsbad: 114,746
Encinitas: 62,007
Carmel Valley, 92130: 61,595
Rancho Santa Fe: 9,344
