Here’s a visual comparison of last year’s counts of NSDCC weekly active and pending listings, and how we are doing this year.
Mortgage rates had bumped up from 4.47% in April to 4.83% in October, but the inventory kept growing too, which didn’t help. The pendings are a better gauge than sales for showing when the buying decisions were being made, and you can see that last year, buyers started losing interest after mid-June.
The bulging inventory in the second half of 2018 also left us with an inventory hangover. We started the year with 35% more homes on the market than the previous year, which led to a slower start in 2019.
But the weekly pendings have strengthened lately, and have been tracking about the same counts as we had in 2018 – probably due to lower rates. Last month, the Freddie Mac average 30-year rate was 4.14%.
If rates stay the same as they are today, we really should see the season extend past June – because it got whacked last year. But high pricing and more inventory could spoil the momentum too.
Last week it was noted how we saw a big surge this time last year, and maybe we could expect the same boost of pendings this week?
Oops, the pendings count stalled:
NSDCC Weekly Total Number of Pendings
1st Week of April
2nd Week of April
3rd Week of April
4th Week of April
5th Week of April
1st Week of May
2nd Week of May
We might be at peak selling season, which would be 2-4 weeks earlier than last year?
Want another sign?
At the end of February we wondered if the market for NSDCC houses priced under a million could go away altogether – the inventory had shrunk down to 67 listings, like they were in the beginning of last May.
But for the last two weeks, we’ve had over 100 houses for sale priced under $1,000,000.
There are more soundbites about sales and pricing being down overall, but the market for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad is hanging in there.
There was an extra business day this year, and there will be more sales reported over the next few days – if those two balance each other out, we’re only about 5% under last year’s sales count, and the pricing trend is higher:
# of Sales
Angelo Mozilo said he never saw a soft landing, but if mortgage rates stay close to 4% and sellers can live with the same price as the last guy got, then this might be the first soft landing in history.
The selling season should hold its own, and it will be the off-season where we could see more dramatic swings due to less volume.
Mortgage rates have continued their slide, and lenders should be offering fixed-rate loans with rates starting in the threes again, with little or no points! The new pendings are flowing, but we still haven’t seen a flood of new listings:
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales in March
The latest numbers are month-to-date, and will increase considerably with four business days to go. But the March sales will end up well under last year’s count, though the lower rates should help boost sales in April and May.
There are threes on the street:
For those who want to prepare for making an offer and would like to review our contracts, the California Association of Realtors have made available a sample copy with explanations:
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