by Jim the Realtor | Sep 17, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
The impending ‘upgrade’ of the MLS starts today at noon, and last until Monday. It will screw up my stats for usual Inventory Watch on Monday morning, so here’s a mid-week preview.
Today there are 491 NSDCC detached-homes in escrow, which the highest number I’ve seen. The huge number of pendings isn’t due to escrows not closing either:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September 1-15
2012: 127
2013: 114
2014: 112
2015: 117
2016: 130
2017: 139
2018: 107
2019: 102
2020: 149
We still have late-reporters too, so this year’s count should get up close to 160!
But you can feel the slowdown coming, and I think it’s purely because there aren’t more houses coming onto the market. We already had the lowest number of August listings in recent history, and the rest of 2020 probably won’t get any better:
Are sellers waiting for the 2021 selling season? Probably! Buyers will be waiting!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 8, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal |
Above are the North Coastal interactive graphs broken down by price (which includes Oceanside, which doubles the inventory of homes for sale under $1 million vs. NSDCC). Our total sales in 2020 should be about the same as they were last year, which is a reminder that 30% to 40% of the listings every year don’t sell – the more-casual sellers didn’t bother to list at all this year.
Interesting that the higher-end pendings are currently setting records for any time of year. The elite are taking advantage of the low rates and are on the move!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 2, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
Here is the recent history of August sales of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
| August, Year |
# of Sales |
Median Sales Price |
| 2013 |
324 |
$953,750 |
| 2014 |
246 |
$1,050,000 |
| 2015 |
278 |
$1,030,000 |
| 2016 |
288 |
$1,199,500 |
| 2017 |
279 |
$1,245,000 |
| 2018 |
276 |
$1,320,000 |
| 2019 |
264 |
$1,354,500 |
| 2020 |
334 |
$1,410,996 |
The 2013 frenzy was a result of the renewed optimism coming out of the last foreclosure crisis – back when most of our sales (57%) were under a million! This August? Only 18% were under a million!
In August 2013, we had 12 sales over $3,000,000. This year? 44!
Plus we still have the late-reporters – we could hit 350!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 28, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Why You Should List With Jim |
Our San Diego Case-Shiller Index is 10% above the previous peak of November, 2005.
But that covers the whole county, so it made WC Varones speculate that the appreciation in NSDCC was higher – as much as 30% to 40% above peak.
Our peak was later, so I searched the 2006-2007 time frame for tract homes so the second sale probably wasn’t a result of a major remodel. The sellers may have added new carpet & paint, or maybe a pool. But for the most part, they were selling the same home that they bought.
Here are examples:
| Address |
Previous Sale Price/Date |
Recent Sale Price/Date |
% Diff |
| 3303 Corte Del Cruce |
$932,500 – 5/11/07 |
$1,210,000 – 10/21/19 |
+30% |
| 3313 Avenida Anacapa |
$955,000 – 7/11/07 |
$1,427,000 – 7/1/20 |
+49% |
| 3638 Sage Canyon |
$970,000 – 4/20/07 |
$1,342,000 – 2/6/18 |
+38% |
| 3411 Camino Corte |
$975,000 – 7/10/07 |
$1,215,000 – 7/29/20 |
+25% |
| 1186 Quail Gardens |
$995,000 – 6/7/06 |
$1,296,000 – 8/14/20 |
+30% |
| 3210 Avenida La Cima |
$1,100,000 – 5/29/07 |
$1,388,000 – 6/21/19 |
+26% |
| 7574 Circulo Sequoia |
$1,167,500 – 6/12/07 |
$1,475,000 – 6/14/19 |
+26% |
| 511 Paloma |
$1,200,000 – 5/11/07 |
$1,400,000 – 4/9/19 |
+17% |
| 13056 Seagrove |
$1,200,000 – 6/1/06 |
$1,662,000 – 4/1/20 |
+39% |
| 5816 Blazing Star |
$1,250,000 – 4/25/07 |
$1,650,000 – 9/11/18 |
+32% |
| 2433 7th St |
$1,350,000 – 4/23/07 |
$1,785,000 – 3/5/19 |
+32% |
| 4475 Philbrook Sq |
$1,440,000 – 6/28/06 |
$1,850,000 – 7/2/19 |
+28% |
| 13689 Winstanley |
$1,037,000 – 11/5/07 |
$1,380,000 – 6/3/20 |
+33% |
The average is +31%!
The last entry on Winstanley is the home I sold in June, and I’ll never forget it.
The seller – who had been reading the blog – had told me when he bought it in late-2007 that he expected to lose $100,000 but he wanted to make his wife happy. I told him to hang in there, and let’s see how it goes!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 26, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
We still have four days to go this month, so it looks like we’ll be setting new monthly sales records again, just like last month (even with a covid asterisk):
| Town or Area |
Zip Code |
# of Sales, 2019 |
Median SP |
# of Sales, 2020 (so far) |
Median SP |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
11 |
$1,375,000 |
13 |
$1,625,000 |
| NW Carlsbad |
92008 |
23 |
$985,000 |
20 |
$1,094,500 |
| SE Carlsbad |
92009 |
37 |
$1,107,000 |
47 |
$1,165,000 |
| NE Carlsbad |
92010 |
6 |
$807,500 |
7 |
$955,000 |
| SW Carlsbad |
92011 |
19 |
$1,100,000 |
20 |
$1,072,500 |
| Carmel Valley |
92130 |
47 |
$1,310,000 |
29 |
$1,362,500 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
15 |
$2,100,000 |
11 |
$1,720,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
46 |
$1,492,500 |
37 |
$1,545,000 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
36 |
$2,474,000 |
33 |
$2,015,000 |
| RSF |
67+91 |
19 |
$3,100,000 |
30 |
$2,762,500 |
| Solana Beach |
92075 |
9 |
$1,900,000 |
5 |
$2,275,000 |
| NSDCC |
All Above |
264 |
$1,354,500 |
247 |
$1,400,000 |
I don’t have too much concern about changes to the median sales prices due to the smaller sample sizes, and I doubt there are any buyers out there who would say prices are down.
Last year we had 56 sales over the last four business days of August, so we’ll probably see 300+ this month when it’s all done. Will sales slow a bit towards election day? Only if the supply winds down?
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 20, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal |
We hear the term, ‘tight inventory’. What does it mean?
Fewer homes for sale?
Fewer of the lower-priced homes for sale?
Homes selling faster?
The best buys are flying off the market in the first day or two?
NSDCC detached-home statistics for Jan 1st – Aug 15th:
| Year |
# of Listings |
Median LP |
# of Sales |
Median SP |
Avg DOM |
Median DOM |
| 2016 |
3,727 |
$1,399,000 |
1,912 |
$1,150,000 |
43 |
22 |
| 2017 |
3,349 |
$1,425,000 |
1,994 |
$1,229,500 |
45 |
19 |
| 2018 |
3,390 |
$1,497,500 |
1,819 |
$1,320,000 |
40 |
18 |
| 2019 |
3,411 |
$1,550,000 |
1,789 |
$1,300,000 |
43 |
22 |
| 2020 |
2,991 |
$1,659,000 |
1,643 |
$1,400,000 |
41 |
18 |
| 20vs19 |
-12% |
+7% |
-8% |
+8% |
-5% |
-18% |
The average and median Days-On-Market metrics are within the normal range, so generally-speaking, homes aren’t selling faster than before.
We’ve had fewer homes for sale (-12% YoY), but sales are only down 8% which isn’t bad. The drop in sales between 2017 and 2018 was slightly more at 9% so we’ve endured this previously.
The overall volume is only down 0.4% YoY ($3,000,850,233 vs $2,988,471,818) – so those on commission (realtors, lenders, escrow, and title) shouldn’t be too concerned with ‘tight inventory’.
Who should be concerned?
Buyers on the lower-end of every market.
We have eleven NSDCC houses for sale priced under $900,000 (in an area of 300,000 people):
Two of those aren’t on the market yet (coming soon!), and a third has a contingent buyer.
Tight inventory = buyers are getting squeezed up on price.
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 9, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Showings |
Not only are there 92.7% more showings this year than on 2019, but this has to be the most people looking at homes for sale in the history of California!
Has there been a surge of new inventory lately?
Locally, the number of new listings has been normal:
NSDCC New Listings Between June 1 and July 31:
2017: 856
2018: 925
2019: 903
2020: 918
There are just more people looking than ever, and it’s translating into sales.
Our July count of NSDCC closed sales is up to 347, which is 23% higher than in July, 2019.
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 4, 2020 | Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Virus, Why You Should List With Jim |
Mortgage rates hit an all-time low yesterday!
Combine the improved purchasing power with the covid-delayed selling season and the lowest inventory in recent history, and we have full-blown frenzy conditions. Look at how July wound up:
NSDCC July Sales & Pricing – Preliminary
| Year |
# July Sales |
Avg. $$/sf |
Median SP |
July Mortgage Rate |
# Listings, 1st Half |
| 2012 |
258 |
$365/sf |
$850,000 |
3.55% |
2,545 |
| 2013 |
297 |
$418/sf |
$930,000 |
4.37% |
2,790 |
| 2014 |
271 |
$451/sf |
$1,018,000 |
4.13% |
2,714 |
| 2015 |
321 |
$458/sf |
$1,025,000 |
4.05% |
2,871 |
| 2016 |
271 |
$504/sf |
$1,110,000 |
3.44% |
2,999 |
| 2017 |
261 |
$528/sf |
$1,240,000 |
3.97% |
2,725 |
| 2018 |
273 |
$544/sf |
$1,280,000 |
4.53% |
2,701 |
| 2019 |
281 |
$612/sf |
$1,300,000 |
3.77% |
2,725 |
| 2020 |
343 |
$620/sf |
$1,420,000 |
2.99% |
2,293 |
We had 342 sales, and there will be some late-reporters. Wow!
Has pricing caught up with the market conditions yet?
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 29, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
This graph shows how we’re making up for lost time, with showings almost double what they were last year.
The closed sales are starting to pop too.
We did have one more business day this year than in 2019, but the NSDCC sales this month are already ahead of recent years, and we have three days to go:
NSDCC July Sales & Pricing – Preliminary
| Year |
# July Sales |
Avg. $$/sf |
Median Sales Price |
| 2016 |
271 |
$504/sf |
$1,110,000 |
| 2017 |
236 |
$533/sf |
$1,253,250 |
| 2018 |
259 |
$545/sf |
$1,300,000 |
| 2019 |
258 |
$604/sf |
$1,300,000 |
| 2020 |
272 |
$631/sf |
$1,410,927 |
We’re probably going to have 300+ sales this month, and pricing is stronger than ever.
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 22, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Virus |
Will our local market survive the coronavirus?
Let’s look at the bigger picture and compare the first half of 2020 to previous years:
NSDCC 1H Listings & Sales
| Year |
# Listings |
Median List Price |
# Sales |
Median Sales Price |
| 2016 |
2,999 |
$1,425,000 |
1,526 |
$1,150,000 |
| 2017 |
2,712 |
$1,425,000 |
1,595 |
$1,225,000 |
| 2018 |
2,701 |
$1,499,000 |
1,420 |
$1,325,000 |
| 2019 |
2,725 |
$1,555,000 |
1,383 |
$1,300,000 |
| 2020 |
2,290 |
$1,675,000 |
1,150 |
$1,400,000 |
| 19vs20 |
-24% |
+8% |
-17% |
+8% |
There have been a fairly-consistent 2,700 NSDCC houses listed for sale in the first half of each of the last three years. In 2020, the count dropped to 2,290, which is 435 fewer listings than last year, or about a month’s worth. We didn’t miss them much either, with sales only being down 17%. Pricing of homes on the lower end has known no throttle.
If we have a typical second half, the 2020 annual sales could end up only being down 5% to 8% for the year – and median pricing up 5% to 10% YoY. I’m not sure anyone predicted that when the ‘rona broke out!
