by Jim the Realtor | Mar 16, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy, Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
Four areas have MORE pendings than active listings, which is a sign of a red-hot market, and all areas except Rancho Santa Fe are around the healthy 2:1 ratio. But the most interesting datapoint is how the number of active listings has been skidding downward ever since rates went up:
The demand may have dropped off, but the supply is shrinking just as fast, or faster. Virtually everyone who is thinking about selling their house this year is going to be on the market in the next 2-3 months, and so far, it doesn’t look like the number of springtime sellers will be anywhere close to what we’ve had in the past.
The number of 2023 NSDCC listings is already 20% behind last year’s count – which was the lowest ever.
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 17, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy, Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
Most areas look healthy (ratio of 2:1 or better), and those in red have very similar to numbers to last spring which was probably the hottest frenzy on record:
The number of pendings has risen 33% in the last month, and the active listings are restrained. There aren’t any signs of panic and there have been some eye-popping sales already this year that makes you think the frenzy conditions are still around.
We are set up for a boisterous selling season, in spite of high prices, high rates, and high skepticism!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 20, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy Monitor, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. We have considered a 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market. When there were more pendings than actives, the frenzy was out of control, and when the number of actives reaches a 3:1 ratio of higher, you know that the market is going the other way.
Lately, the ratio has benefitted from cancellations, and today’s A/P ratio is close to the June level:
The number of choices today is anemic, and not that much different than the frenzy levels. The combined totals of actives and pendings (underlined in purple above):
Feb: 384
Mar: 386
Jan: 386
Fewer are selling now because of listing exhaustion.
Of the 105 new listings in January:
Number of those on the market in 4Q22, and refreshed as a new listing this month: 44
Number of January listings that were purchased in 2020: 13
Number of January listings that were purchased in 2021 or later: 19
You can say that the inventory of exciting new offerings is extremely tight, especially for those buyers who have been looking since 2020 – you’ve previously seen 72% of the ‘new’ listings.
In 2020, we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 15, 2022 | Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. Typically, we’ve considered any market to be healthy that has a 2:1 ratio between active and pending listings.
SW Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, and Encinitas all have a ratio that is better than 2:1 – and we are half way into December! Six areas (in green) have more pendings today than they did before Thanksgiving!
I’m declaring victory for 2022.
We survived the fastest rise in mortgage rates in history, and not only are sales still happening (38 closed in December so far, so we should get close to 100), but the new-pendings count has been hanging tough too.
Observations:
- No flood of inventory…..yet.
- The number of actives is way down but not out. It must mean that those still on the market really do want to sell. Even though most of them are probably having no showings, at least they are willing to stick it out, just in case. It should give us more to work with in January.
- Mortgage rates are getting closer to 5%. You can get a jumbo today in the low-5s.
- The Fed doesn’t open its big yap again until February 1st.
Maybe we can get a quicker start in 2023? If buyers are on vacation and come back next month to see some price reductions, we could have a decent January too.
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 21, 2022 | 2022, Frenzy Monitor |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. A healthy market is when there are two actives to every pending.
There are a couple areas (in red) where the number of pendings have dropped significantly. But in six of the more-expensive areas, there are the same number of pendings now as there were last month:
All we have to do is muddle through the next three months!
In 2020, we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 20, 2022 | Frenzy Monitor |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. Historically, we’ve figured that a 2:1 ratio was a sign of a healthy market.
By now we are drifting into the holiday season, so there should be some natural dropoff this time of year anyway. But even with rates in the mid-7s today, the active and pending listings still look pretty good!
Four green areas have more pendings now than last month, and the yellows have significantly fewer:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
All we need to do is make it to February!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 20, 2022 | 2022, Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market.
While other areas in America are reporting a surge of inventory, it’s not happening here, at least not yet. Comparing the current stats to the last few months, there really isn’t any reason to be overly concerned:
Taking out La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe, the actives-to-pendings is 2.4-to-1 (249:103), which isn’t bad, all considered, and it’s the same ratio as it was last month.
The holiday season is less than a month away…..and the NFL season is already two weeks old. The Super Bowl is right around the corner, and so is the 2023 Selling Season!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 17, 2022 | Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market.
Most areas today have the same or better stats as they did last month. The number of active listings hit their peak in August last year, as usual, and it’s likely that the count of unsold listings will drop slowly over the rest of 2022 (and the pendings follow). Prepare for 2-3 months of NSDCC sales being under 100!
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
Taking out the high-enders La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe, the actives-to-pendings is 2.4-to-1 (291:121), which isn’t bad, all considered.
Mid-February, and the 2023 Selling Season, is only six months away!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 21, 2022 | 2022, Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Frenzy Monitor, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings |
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
In the recent years prior to the pandemic, the actives/pendings in Rancho Santa Fe ran at a 10:1 pace. Nobody is in a hurry there, they don’t have to sell, and they’re not going to give it away. Those days appear to be coming back.
The median list price of those RSF actives is $5,995,000 – is anyone going to feel sorry for them? Probably not. Does it reflect what is going on in the rest of the area? Not really – the other areas are mostly around a 2:1 ratio (except La Jolla) which has been our standard for a healthy market and pretty good, all considered.
In 2020, we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7, 2020.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 20, 2022 | Actives/Pendings, Frenzy Monitor, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings |
Let’s break down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give you a closer look at the neighborhood stats. We’re going to have more active listings simply because the the list prices were all based on red-hot frenzy conditions (comps + 5% or more), and we’re past the red-hot days.
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
| Town/Area |
Zip Code |
Feb 27 |
Mar 16 |
May 5 |
Jun 20 |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
5/7 |
6/4 |
7/7 |
13/5 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
6/9 |
8/10 |
15/10 |
27/10 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
15/29 |
8/33 |
20/27 |
47/25 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
1/5 |
2/6 |
7/14 |
17/11 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
2/11 |
4/12 |
8/16 |
19/19 |
| Carmel Valley |
92130 |
10/31 |
10/30 |
22/25 |
50/18 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
15/32 |
17/10 |
24/13 |
30/8 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
15/32 |
17/28 |
24/32 |
46/26 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
53/38 |
55/35 |
51/32 |
72/24 |
| Rancho Santa Fe |
92067 |
45/22 |
47/24 |
49/22 |
52/25 |
| Rancho Santa Fe |
92091 |
2/2 |
5/2 |
2/0 |
3/2 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
6/6 |
3/10 |
9/7 |
12/5 |
| NSDCC |
All Above |
179/205 |
182/204 |
238/205 |
388/178 |
The selling season started early in 2022, and was cooking by the end of February. Let’s group the different areas based on how their pendings are holding up.
Frenzy-ish:
Carlsbad SW – A few houses finally went up for sale, and buyers responded.
Rancho Santa Fe – The active listings aren’t growing like in the other high-end areas of Del Mar and La Jolla, and the number of pendings are very impressive. It was once normal when the Ranch had a 10:1 ratio between actives and pendings!
Normal-ish:
Everyone else, except……
Crash Zone
Carmel Valley – which has always had more pendings than actives over the last two years – and sometimes twice as many pendings! While having 50 actives and 18 pendings anywhere else would be a win, in the CV it feels like a meltdown.
Here they are:
(I tried to sort those by price order, but all they have is sort by date added)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This nonsense about every buyer paying way over list price has to stop. If the SP:LP was around 100% we’d be elated, yet it was 111%, 109%, and 109% in the February-April stretch.
So far in June, the SP:LP is 107% for the 104 detached-home sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We can also track the average market times too. Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing – it’s early so nothing too startling yet:
The hottest of the red-hot was in 2020, when we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on 9/7/2020. Today we have 178 pendings.
