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Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

Our Big Three zip codes – where you can still buy a decent house for $2,000,000 – are still having more pendings than actives (highlighted below), but let’s note how strong the pending counts are in La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe too:

The median list price in La Jolla today is $5,422,500, and in RSF it is $7,700,000!

We can also track the average market times too.  Upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

All four categories have improved recently, and the high-end $3,000,000+ average market times have been in the tightest range over the last few months!

Some may call this the off-season, but the only reason that the numbers aren’t any better is because the number of new listings is so low.  Brace for impact in 2022!

NSDCC Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

Given how inventory has been dropping significantly, it is impressive how many pendings there are:

We had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th last year – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7, 2020.

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

Buyers are pickier than ever, so no surprise that some dogs aren’t selling.

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

The number of pending listings is almost the same as the number of actives. It’s feasible that their paths could cross again in the coming weeks as the unsuccessful sellers cancel their listings for the holidays:

NSDCC Active and Pending Listings

But with fewer homes for sale combined with the time of year, we probably won’t see much change.  Let’s call it low-grade frenzy conditions for now.

How about the average days on market?

Some of the high-enders have been hanging around a while, but the rest are moving!

It’s fascinating that the average days-on-market for ALL pendings is 33 days, and the median is 16 days.  For those 65 pending sales over $3,000,000, the average DOM is 54, and the median is 43 – it doesn’t take months to sell in this market.

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

It’s interesting to see that the total number of actives and pendings are so similar – as close as they were in late-June as the max frenzy was unwinding. The big split in the counts on August 11th made it look like the frenzy was coming apart, but they’ve gotten back in line nicely since:

But with fewer homes for sale combined with the time of year, we probably won’t see much change.  Let’s call it low-grade frenzy conditions for now.

The average days on market is creeping upward, but still no big concerns. There will always be sellers who would rather wait for the lucky sale, than adjust their price – and longer average market times indicate more sellers doing the former. Though we should note that the hottest range ($1.5 – $2.0) must have a lot of dogs lying around:

San Diego County has experienced the worst YoY change of active listings IN THE NATION. Three thousand houses for sale in a county of 3.3 million people? Yikes!!

And that was the August report.  Today in San Diego County:

ACTIVES: 1,760

PENDINGS: 2,600

Wow!

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

Our Big Three – Carmel Valley, Encinitas, and SE Carlsbad – continue to carry substantially more pendings than active listings, but both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe have similar pending counts, which is incredible given their much-higher price points:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

The average days on market is creeping upward, but still no big concerns. There will always be sellers who would rather wait for the lucky sale, than adjust their price – and longer average market times indicate more sellers doing the former:

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range has been the hottest all year, but their average DOM is at its high – while the rest are well below theirs!

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

The total number of active listings has dropped 14% over the last two weeks, with Carlsbad SE taking the brunt of it as the actives got cut in half (46 to 23) while the 92009 pendings shot up by 32% (34 to 45).  Don’t sleep on this market – there is still plenty of interest in buying quality homes.

Look how steady each area has been:

NSDCC Active and Pending Detached-Home Listings

In the previous FM, I said that the March-May period had to be the hottest of all-time, but we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th last year – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing, but there could be several reasons, like the listing agents letting a few more days to elapse before concluding the biding war(?). Or buyers being more deliberate (which is more likely):

While the market was once speeding along at 125 MPH, now it’s a steady cruise around 80 MPH. Everything settling down little by little, with an occasional hot new listing that really stands out.

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at the health of the market in their neighborhood.

We’ve considered the market as healthy when there has been a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings.

All areas are in good shape, with only three being less than full-green because the number of actives have creeped up slightly but whose pendings count is still strong.

Prior to the pandemic, Rancho Santa Fe was regularly a 10:1 ratio – now look at it!

We are tracking the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

No big concerns here either. While we were flying at 130 MPH in spring, we’re down to around 85MPH now, which is still a very nice cruising speed – and faster than normal!

Frenzy Monitor

The total number of pendings have been rapidly descending with frenzy-escrows closing out.  But new listings should taper off from now on, so we’ll see which drops faster:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town/Area
Zip
Feb 2nd
May 12
May 26
Jun 9
Jun 23
Jul 14
Jul 28
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
10/11
14/7
14/6
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
21/23
18/24
23/19
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
21/44
27/42
29/29
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
7/15
8/19
7/13
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
11/16
12/24
6/24
Carmel Vly
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
30/65
27/60
31/48
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
37/19
42/12
36/21
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
36/65
42/50
43/53
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
88/41
89/38
84/47
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
79/42
72/42
66/45
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
1/3
1/2
1/3
Solana Bch
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
14/10
17/12
17/7
NSDCC
All
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364
355/354
369/332
357/315

In the previous FM, I said that the March-May period had to be the hottest of all-time, but we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th last year – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

There is slowing of market times in all price ranges but averages of large sample sizes don’t move quickly.

Frenzy Monitor

When comparing to the last reading there hasn’t been much change, but the May 12th numbers were quite different – the number of actives today is now 15% higher, and pendings are 16% lower.

But it had to go in that direction. The March-May period has to be the hottest stretch ever recorded:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Feb 2nd
May 12
May 26
Jun 9
Jun 23
Jul 14
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
10/11
14/7
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
21/23
18/24
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
21/44
27/42
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
7/15
8/19
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
11/16
12/24
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
30/65
27/60
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
37/19
42/12
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
36/65
42/50
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
88/41
89/38
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
79/42
72/42
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
1/3
1/2
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
14/10
17/12
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364
355/354
369/332

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

We could get a nice flare-up of activity as the summer closes out, and it probably won’t be that obvious in these stats as the frenzy simmers down slowly over the next few weeks.

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