Frenzy Monitor

NSDCC Active and Pending Listings

The unsold listings are stacking up earlier than normal in Del Mar (Median LP = $4,750,000) and in Rancho Santa Fe (Median LP = $7,895,000) but no one is going to feel sorry for them.

The other areas are hanging tough around the 2:1 ratio or better, which has been the healthy-market zone.

But look at SE Carlsbad for an example. It has the exact same number of pendings as there were at this time last April, but the number of actives are almost doubled, even with a reasonable median LP of $2,099,000.

This year, there will be more listings that price too high, don’t adjust, and get left behind.

Frenzy Monitor

There are 27% more active listings today than there were last March – without much increase in the number of pendings – though the areas in red above are just as hot as they were last year at this time.

Judging by the number of active (unsold) listings compared to the totals though, sales are more sluggish now than in any year since 2019 when we had 90 actives priced under $1 million (today there are none):

NSDCC Total Listings Jan 1 to Mar 10 and Active Listings in Mid-March

Last year, we didn’t have 335 actives until the end of May!

Sellers will call it normalizing, and buyers will wonder how much more normal will it get!

It’s doubtful that today’s buyers are remembering 2019 though, and if anything they are comparing to last year – and looking for any reason not to buy. If the active count keeps rising, it’s going to look like a glut in a couple of months.

Frenzy Monitor

NSDCC Active and Pending Listings

All except three of the highest-end neighborhoods (Del Mar, RSF, and Solana Beach) are at a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings, or better (my measure of a healthy market). La Jolla deserves special recognition – the pendings have blown up there in the last 30 days!

The inventory is running +14% YoY, which should be about the best-case scenario. Just enough extra homes for sale to have buyers be more interested without scaring them off with a big surge.

But let’s note that the total number of pendings is the same as last February, so it’s not a full blown frenzy yet with more homes not selling. If we carry excess unsold homes for a few more months it could look like a glut to the skeptical buyers.

Frenzy Monitor

The most interesting part of this graph is that in 2023 the number of active listings stayed about the same from mid-January to mid-April as the market got off to a fast start. The number of pendings were steady too, all while 573 sales were closing between Jan 1 and April 30, 2023.

If 2024 gets off to a slower start, we will see it in the number of actives trickling upward.

Frenzy Monitor, December

Rob Dawg noted that the year-over-year comparisons are worth a look, now that the super-frenzy days are over. Sure enough, this month looks a lot like last December!

La Jolla is going strong, Rancho Santa Fe is back to the priced-to-sit program they made famous, and the 3 mid-range areas (in purple) have total actives/pendings of 80/45 compared to 99/44 last year.

All signs are pointing to next year being similar….unless there is a surge of inventory.

Frenzy Monitor

With multiple wars, raging rates, and lawsuits flying everywhere, it sure feels like chaos and doom are prevailing. But underneath it all, our local market looks a lot like it did last year at this time.

Keep your head down, and keep pedaling!

Frenzy Monitor

Here are the active and pending listings for each area.

We consider a ratio of 2:1 actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market, and five of the 12 areas are 2:1 or better, and seven of 12 are 3:1 or better.  For everything we’ve been through, that’s pretty good!

Two areas (SE Carlsbad and Encinitas) are a little light on pendings compared to last year at this time, but price will fix that. It is remarkable how similar July and October were to last year, and the other months weren’t too far off either.

Will it be like this in 2024? Probably!

Frenzy Monitor, August 2023

Let’s break down down the active and pending listings by zip code to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. There will be some noise due to me changing to the CRMLS system, which is different than at the SDAR even though we are supposed to be data-sharing:

Remarkably, the pendings count is the highest since last May – the peak of the frenzy!

Frenzy Monitor

The Carlsbad market has been surviving quite well – there are 14% more pendings today than last July.

The other areas are all above the 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings (our standard for a healthy market). The number of actives in Encinitas DOUBLED in less than a month!

Last July there were 171 pendings, and it’s the same number today!

The pendings should steadily decline like last year, and by December the count should be around 110.

Frenzy Monitor

The number of active (unsold) listings has been on the rise, and is now 13% higher than it was a month ago – though I would still characterize the current market conditions as steady.

Compare your stats from this month to last June and July when higher rates had begun to take their toll. The rate-change was rather abrupt, and it was natural for buyers to wait-and-see about the impact which caused the active inventory to soar.

If your area looks similar to last June/July, it’s probably not a good thing.

The activity this year is more normal and typically what happens as the selling season closes out – sellers are too enthusiastic after a couple of hot months and don’t adjust their price expectations fast enough.

There have been 57 closings between La Jolla and Carlsbad this month, which is good. The monthly sales total should finish over 100, but it probably won’t get up to the 168 sales we had in May.

There will be a few more eye-popping sales, but generally the 2023 market is fading away.

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