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Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

Our Big Three – Carmel Valley, Encinitas, and SE Carlsbad – continue to carry substantially more pendings than active listings, but both La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe have similar pending counts, which is incredible given their much-higher price points:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

The average days on market is creeping upward, but still no big concerns. There will always be sellers who would rather wait for the lucky sale, than adjust their price – and longer average market times indicate more sellers doing the former:

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range has been the hottest all year, but their average DOM is at its high – while the rest are well below theirs!

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.

The total number of active listings has dropped 14% over the last two weeks, with Carlsbad SE taking the brunt of it as the actives got cut in half (46 to 23) while the 92009 pendings shot up by 32% (34 to 45).  Don’t sleep on this market – there is still plenty of interest in buying quality homes.

Look how steady each area has been:

NSDCC Active and Pending Detached-Home Listings

In the previous FM, I said that the March-May period had to be the hottest of all-time, but we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th last year – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing, but there could be several reasons, like the listing agents letting a few more days to elapse before concluding the biding war(?). Or buyers being more deliberate (which is more likely):

While the market was once speeding along at 125 MPH, now it’s a steady cruise around 80 MPH. Everything settling down little by little, with an occasional hot new listing that really stands out.

Frenzy Monitor

The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at the health of the market in their neighborhood.

We’ve considered the market as healthy when there has been a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings.

All areas are in good shape, with only three being less than full-green because the number of actives have creeped up slightly but whose pendings count is still strong.

Prior to the pandemic, Rancho Santa Fe was regularly a 10:1 ratio – now look at it!

We are tracking the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

No big concerns here either. While we were flying at 130 MPH in spring, we’re down to around 85MPH now, which is still a very nice cruising speed – and faster than normal!

Frenzy Monitor

The total number of pendings have been rapidly descending with frenzy-escrows closing out.  But new listings should taper off from now on, so we’ll see which drops faster:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town/Area
Zip
Feb 2nd
May 12
May 26
Jun 9
Jun 23
Jul 14
Jul 28
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
10/11
14/7
14/6
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
21/23
18/24
23/19
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
21/44
27/42
29/29
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
7/15
8/19
7/13
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
11/16
12/24
6/24
Carmel Vly
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
30/65
27/60
31/48
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
37/19
42/12
36/21
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
36/65
42/50
43/53
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
88/41
89/38
84/47
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
79/42
72/42
66/45
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
1/3
1/2
1/3
Solana Bch
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
14/10
17/12
17/7
NSDCC
All
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364
355/354
369/332
357/315

In the previous FM, I said that the March-May period had to be the hottest of all-time, but we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th last year – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

There is slowing of market times in all price ranges but averages of large sample sizes don’t move quickly.

Frenzy Monitor

When comparing to the last reading there hasn’t been much change, but the May 12th numbers were quite different – the number of actives today is now 15% higher, and pendings are 16% lower.

But it had to go in that direction. The March-May period has to be the hottest stretch ever recorded:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Feb 2nd
May 12
May 26
Jun 9
Jun 23
Jul 14
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
10/11
14/7
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
21/23
18/24
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
21/44
27/42
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
7/15
8/19
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
11/16
12/24
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
30/65
27/60
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
37/19
42/12
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
36/65
42/50
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
88/41
89/38
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
79/42
72/42
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
1/3
1/2
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
14/10
17/12
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364
355/354
369/332

We can also track the average market times too.  Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

We could get a nice flare-up of activity as the summer closes out, and it probably won’t be that obvious in these stats as the frenzy simmers down slowly over the next few weeks.

Over List, June

The percentage of buyers who were willing to pay over list reached another all-time high in June:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

There were 37% of the total sales that closed for $100,000+ over list price!

The action was really hot in the $2,000,000s – the other price ranges cooled off slightly:

Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%

After rising in six-figure amounts the previous month, it looks like pricing might be leveling off too:

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500

We’ve been experiencing the hottest real estate market in the history of the world!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Frenzy Monitor

Here’s our bimonthly check on how the actives and pendings are faring.

Two weeks ago it was suggested, “We were driving 135 MPH, and now we’re down to 127 MPH”.

We’re probably down to 100 MPH now.

For the first time in months, the total number of active and pending listings are balanced, and almost all areas have a few more actives today than they did two weeks ago:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Feb 2nd
May 12
May 26
June 9
June 23
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
10/11
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
21/23
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
21/44
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
7/15
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
11/16
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
30/65
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
37/19
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
36/65
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
88/41
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
79/42
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
1/3
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
14/10
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364
355/354

We can also track the average market times too.

Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

The lower-end should always be the hottest segment, and the average market time was down to 18 days on Monday.  But the other price ranges are going the other way, which either means that buyers are getting more picky, or more prices are wrong – or both.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Frenzy Monitor

Here’s our two-week check on how the actives and pendings are faring.

The Big Three areas (Carmel Valley, Encinitas, and SE Carlsbad) remain blistering hot, and overall we are similar to how Ryan described the Sacramento market yesterday:

“We were driving 135 MPH, and now we’re down to 127 MPH”.

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives/Pendings, Feb 2nd
May 12th
May 26th
June 9th
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364

We can also track the average market times too. Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

These remain steady too, and an indicator that buyers are still jumping at the hot buys…and more!

More Frenzy Measuring

Based on these closed sales, the local frenzy has been steady this year – though these are results of buying decisions made as far back as January and February.

For the most part, we have as many or more sales, and the same or higher LP:SP ratios over the last 60 days compared to the sales in the 60 days prior to April 23rd:

Detached-Home Sales By Zip Code

Town/Area
Zip Code
Sales 60 days Prior to April 23
LP:SP Ratio
Last 60 Days
LP:SP Ratio
Carlsbad NW
92008
40
103%
32
104%
Carlsbad SE
92009
95
105%
118
106%
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
105%
22
106%
Carlsbad SW
92011
29
103%
29
106%
Encinitas
92024
87
103%
92
104%
Carmel Valley
92130
72
101%
88
101%

This shows that the frenzy trends have been fairly consistent so far this year. Tomorrow we’ll take another look at the active and pending counts to see if there is any drop-off in the works.

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