by Jim the Realtor | Jul 15, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor |
The numbers were fairly steady through the May reading…..but the number of unsold listings have jumped in most areas now (with Encinitas and La Jolla at, or near, all-time highs). The current inventory of 507 actives is 23% higher than last July!
Rancho Santa Fe is on its way back to its old pattern of having 10x the number of actives vs. pendings.
The second half of 2024 is probably going to be relatively unsuccessful for the current sellers who have been on the market for 30+ days – they aren’t priced to move now, and it’s unlikely they will adjust enough to be an attractive buy (which would probably take a discount of -10% or more).
If they all have to come back next year….plus those who decided to wait out the political circus….plus the usual sellers, the 2025 inventory could feel like a real surge. I already have three different sellers who are choosing to wait until 2025 to put their home on the market!
NSDCC Total Number of Listings and Median List Price, First Half of the Year:
2019: 2,722, $1,550,000
2020: 2,324, $1,650,000
2021: 2,266, $1,899,000
2022: 1,812, $2,350,000
2023: 1,468, $2,500,000
2024: 1,663, $2,715,000
If the number of listings explodes next year, these price gains are going to need to mellow out.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 12, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor
Almost all areas are bursting with active listings. Encinitas has joined La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe in the “List ‘Em High And Let Them Fly” category. The median list price in the 92024 is $2,998,000!
Will buyers be affected? Will they notice?
La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe don’t allow for-sale signs in the yard so you won’t notice just by driving around. The City of Encinitas is 20 square miles so having 75 signs probably won’t look like a glut. The average DOM is 40 days in Encinitas – once it gets up to 71 like it is in the Ranch, then buyers might take notice.
by Jim the Realtor | May 15, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal
This chart shows identifies the hot spots, and not-so-hot spots, as compared to last year. Southeast Carlsbad and Carmel Valley both have substantially more pendings this year, and NW Carlsbad and Encinitas have roughly double the number of actives and where potential gluts might be forming.
Overall, there are 25% more active listings, and 21% more pending listings – so much of the additional inventory is getting soaked up.
Pricing is about the same as last year:
NSDCC Median List Price of Active Listings
May 15, 2023: $3,749,400
May 15, 2024: $3,895,000
NSDCC Median Sales Price in May
2023: $2,362,500 (178 sales)
2024: $2,310,000 (68 sales so far)
After last month’s eye-popping 200 sales, there was some hope that this month would be equally productive. But it looks like we’ll be fortunate to match last May’s count.
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 16, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor |
NSDCC Active and Pending Listings
The unsold listings are stacking up earlier than normal in Del Mar (Median LP = $4,750,000) and in Rancho Santa Fe (Median LP = $7,895,000) but no one is going to feel sorry for them.
The other areas are hanging tough around the 2:1 ratio or better, which has been the healthy-market zone.
But look at SE Carlsbad for an example. It has the exact same number of pendings as there were at this time last April, but the number of actives are almost doubled, even with a reasonable median LP of $2,099,000.
This year, there will be more listings that price too high, don’t adjust, and get left behind.
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 14, 2024 | 2024, Frenzy Monitor
There are 27% more active listings today than there were last March – without much increase in the number of pendings – though the areas in red above are just as hot as they were last year at this time.
Judging by the number of active (unsold) listings compared to the totals though, sales are more sluggish now than in any year since 2019 when we had 90 actives priced under $1 million (today there are none):
NSDCC Total Listings Jan 1 to Mar 10 and Active Listings in Mid-March
Last year, we didn’t have 335 actives until the end of May!
Sellers will call it normalizing, and buyers will wonder how much more normal will it get!
It’s doubtful that today’s buyers are remembering 2019 though, and if anything they are comparing to last year – and looking for any reason not to buy. If the active count keeps rising, it’s going to look like a glut in a couple of months.
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 15, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor
NSDCC Active and Pending Listings
All except three of the highest-end neighborhoods (Del Mar, RSF, and Solana Beach) are at a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings, or better (my measure of a healthy market). La Jolla deserves special recognition – the pendings have blown up there in the last 30 days!
The inventory is running +14% YoY, which should be about the best-case scenario. Just enough extra homes for sale to have buyers be more interested without scaring them off with a big surge.
But let’s note that the total number of pendings is the same as last February, so it’s not a full blown frenzy yet with more homes not selling. If we carry excess unsold homes for a few more months it could look like a glut to the skeptical buyers.
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 16, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor
The most interesting part of this graph is that in 2023 the number of active listings stayed about the same from mid-January to mid-April as the market got off to a fast start. The number of pendings were steady too, all while 573 sales were closing between Jan 1 and April 30, 2023.
If 2024 gets off to a slower start, we will see it in the number of actives trickling upward.
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 13, 2023 | Frenzy Monitor
Rob Dawg noted that the year-over-year comparisons are worth a look, now that the super-frenzy days are over. Sure enough, this month looks a lot like last December!
La Jolla is going strong, Rancho Santa Fe is back to the priced-to-sit program they made famous, and the 3 mid-range areas (in purple) have total actives/pendings of 80/45 compared to 99/44 last year.
All signs are pointing to next year being similar….unless there is a surge of inventory.
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 16, 2023 | Frenzy Monitor
With multiple wars, raging rates, and lawsuits flying everywhere, it sure feels like chaos and doom are prevailing. But underneath it all, our local market looks a lot like it did last year at this time.
Keep your head down, and keep pedaling!
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 12, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy Monitor
Here are the active and pending listings for each area.
We consider a ratio of 2:1 actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market, and five of the 12 areas are 2:1 or better, and seven of 12 are 3:1 or better. For everything we’ve been through, that’s pretty good!
Two areas (SE Carlsbad and Encinitas) are a little light on pendings compared to last year at this time, but price will fix that. It is remarkable how similar July and October were to last year, and the other months weren’t too far off either.
Will it be like this in 2024? Probably!
