Frenzy Monitor

by | Oct 15, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor

La Jolla hit the century mark in active listings but with 28 pendings it seems to be in decent shape.

It’s Rancho Santa Fe that is angling back to its favored 10:1 ratio of actives to pendings.

Frenzy Monitor

by | Aug 16, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market

Compared to last year, there are 25% more sellers not willing to get realistic about the value of their home. It’s fine, as long as they don’t mind waiting for all the other better buys to clear out – and it might be a loonnnggggg wait.

The median days on market for the 484 unsold listings is 45 days now (average is 58 days on the market). The existing inventory is so picked over, that virtually none of the listings that have been on the market for more than two weeks (which is 77% of the total number of actives) have a chance of selling unless they radically change their price.

It is such a great time for hot new listings to hit the open market though. Of the 156 pendings, 39% of them found their buyer in the first two weeks on the market! There are deals to be done!

(Not) Frenzy Monitor

by | Jul 15, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor | 2 comments

The numbers were fairly steady through the May reading…..but the number of unsold listings have jumped in most areas now (with Encinitas and La Jolla at, or near, all-time highs). The current inventory of 507 actives is 23% higher than last July!

Rancho Santa Fe is on its way back to its old pattern of having 10x the number of actives vs. pendings.

The second half of 2024 is probably going to be relatively unsuccessful for the current sellers who have been on the market for 30+ days – they aren’t priced to move now, and it’s unlikely they will adjust enough to be an attractive buy (which would probably take a discount of -10% or more).

If they all have to come back next year….plus those who decided to wait out the political circus….plus the usual sellers, the 2025 inventory could feel like a real surge. I already have three different sellers who are choosing to wait until 2025 to put their home on the market!

NSDCC Total Number of Listings and Median List Price, First Half of the Year:

2019: 2,722, $1,550,000

2020: 2,324, $1,650,000

2021: 2,266, $1,899,000

2022: 1,812, $2,350,000

2023: 1,468, $2,500,000

2024: 1,663, $2,715,000

If the number of listings explodes next year, these price gains are going to need to mellow out.

Frenzy Monitor – June

by | Jun 12, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor

Almost all areas are bursting with active listings. Encinitas has joined La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe in the “List ‘Em High And Let Them Fly” category. The median list price in the 92024 is $2,998,000!

Will buyers be affected? Will they notice?

La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe don’t allow for-sale signs in the yard so you won’t notice just by driving around. The City of Encinitas is 20 square miles so having 75 signs probably won’t look like a glut. The average DOM is 40 days in Encinitas – once it gets up to 71 like it is in the Ranch, then buyers might take notice.

Frenzy Monitor

by | May 15, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal

This chart shows identifies the hot spots, and not-so-hot spots, as compared to last year. Southeast Carlsbad and Carmel Valley both have substantially more pendings this year, and NW Carlsbad and Encinitas have roughly double the number of actives and where potential gluts might be forming.

Overall, there are 25% more active listings, and 21% more pending listings – so much of the additional inventory is getting soaked up.

Pricing is about the same as last year:

NSDCC Median List Price of Active Listings

May 15, 2023: $3,749,400

May 15, 2024: $3,895,000

NSDCC Median Sales Price in May

2023: $2,362,500 (178 sales)

2024: $2,310,000 (68 sales so far)

After last month’s eye-popping 200 sales, there was some hope that this month would be equally productive. But it looks like we’ll be fortunate to match last May’s count.

Frenzy Monitor

by | Apr 16, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor | 1 comment

NSDCC Active and Pending Listings

The unsold listings are stacking up earlier than normal in Del Mar (Median LP = $4,750,000) and in Rancho Santa Fe (Median LP = $7,895,000) but no one is going to feel sorry for them.

The other areas are hanging tough around the 2:1 ratio or better, which has been the healthy-market zone.

But look at SE Carlsbad for an example. It has the exact same number of pendings as there were at this time last April, but the number of actives are almost doubled, even with a reasonable median LP of $2,099,000.

This year, there will be more listings that price too high, don’t adjust, and get left behind.

Frenzy Monitor

by | Mar 14, 2024 | 2024, Frenzy Monitor

There are 27% more active listings today than there were last March – without much increase in the number of pendings – though the areas in red above are just as hot as they were last year at this time.

Judging by the number of active (unsold) listings compared to the totals though, sales are more sluggish now than in any year since 2019 when we had 90 actives priced under $1 million (today there are none):

NSDCC Total Listings Jan 1 to Mar 10 and Active Listings in Mid-March

Last year, we didn’t have 335 actives until the end of May!

Sellers will call it normalizing, and buyers will wonder how much more normal will it get!

It’s doubtful that today’s buyers are remembering 2019 though, and if anything they are comparing to last year – and looking for any reason not to buy. If the active count keeps rising, it’s going to look like a glut in a couple of months.

Frenzy Monitor

by | Feb 15, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor

NSDCC Active and Pending Listings

All except three of the highest-end neighborhoods (Del Mar, RSF, and Solana Beach) are at a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings, or better (my measure of a healthy market). La Jolla deserves special recognition – the pendings have blown up there in the last 30 days!

The inventory is running +14% YoY, which should be about the best-case scenario. Just enough extra homes for sale to have buyers be more interested without scaring them off with a big surge.

But let’s note that the total number of pendings is the same as last February, so it’s not a full blown frenzy yet with more homes not selling. If we carry excess unsold homes for a few more months it could look like a glut to the skeptical buyers.

Frenzy Monitor

by | Jan 16, 2024 | Frenzy Monitor

The most interesting part of this graph is that in 2023 the number of active listings stayed about the same from mid-January to mid-April as the market got off to a fast start. The number of pendings were steady too, all while 573 sales were closing between Jan 1 and April 30, 2023.

If 2024 gets off to a slower start, we will see it in the number of actives trickling upward.

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