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Frenzy Monitor

Here’s our two-week check on how the actives and pendings are faring.

The Big Three areas (Carmel Valley, Encinitas, and SE Carlsbad) remain blistering hot, and overall we are similar to how Ryan described the Sacramento market yesterday:

“We were driving 135 MPH, and now we’re down to 127 MPH”.

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives/Pendings, Feb 2nd
May 12th
May 26th
June 9th
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
8/14
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
20/24
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
19/49
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
8/14
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
4/19
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
23/65
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
32/20
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
33/61
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
88/48
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
80/38
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
3/6
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
12/6
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386
308/380
330/364

We can also track the average market times too. Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

These remain steady too, and an indicator that buyers are still jumping at the hot buys…and more!

More Frenzy Measuring

Based on these closed sales, the local frenzy has been steady this year – though these are results of buying decisions made as far back as January and February.

For the most part, we have as many or more sales, and the same or higher LP:SP ratios over the last 60 days compared to the sales in the 60 days prior to April 23rd:

Detached-Home Sales By Zip Code

Town/Area
Zip Code
Sales 60 days Prior to April 23
LP:SP Ratio
Last 60 Days
LP:SP Ratio
Carlsbad NW
92008
40
103%
32
104%
Carlsbad SE
92009
95
105%
118
106%
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
105%
22
106%
Carlsbad SW
92011
29
103%
29
106%
Encinitas
92024
87
103%
92
104%
Carmel Valley
92130
72
101%
88
101%

This shows that the frenzy trends have been fairly consistent so far this year. Tomorrow we’ll take another look at the active and pending counts to see if there is any drop-off in the works.

NSDCC Frenzy Monitor

To help get a sense of the frenzy conditions, let’s monitor the number of active & pending listings per area.

If the active (unsold) listings start to rise, we will know that pricing is becoming an issue.

But so far, the demand for detached homes between Carlsbad and La Jolla is solid, and buyers are enduring prices that are 20% to 30% higher than last year:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives/Pendings, Feb 2nd
May 12th
May 26th
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
10/11
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
19/23
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
13/57
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
6/13
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
4/17
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
23/63
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
34/26
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
32/56
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
87/47
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
72/53
RSF
92091
3/7
1/6
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
7/8
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386
308/380

The 92009, 92011 and 92130 (SE Carlsbad, SW Carlsbad, and Carmel Valley) are scorching hot, with 4x, 4x and 3x as many pendings as actives!  But Rancho Santa Fe is the most impressive of all. There have been times when there were 10x as many actives as pendings in 92067 – today it’s 1.4x!

With the 30-day closings, there shouldn’t be any drastic changes here – let’s examine the trends over time.

We can also track the average market times too. Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing:

I’ll run this every couple of weeks.

Frenzy Monitor

To gauge the frenzy intensity, let’s monitor the number of active and pending listings per area.

If the count of unsold homes starts to rise, we will know that pricing is becoming an issue.

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives/Pendings, Feb 2nd
Actives/Pendings, May 12th
Cardiff
92007
11/16
9/12
Carlsbad NW
92008
17/19
19/30
Carlsbad SE
92009
9/38
19/60
Carlsbad NE
92010
1/12
5/13
Carlsbad SW
92011
2/17
8/16
Carmel Valley
92130
26/43
20/65
Del Mar
92014
43/13
34/26
Encinitas
92024
39/45
33/54
La Jolla
92037
101/46
82/40
RSF
92067
96/35
83/54
RSF
92091
3/7
Solana Beach
92075
11/10
6/9
NSDCC
All Above
356/294
321/386

We have 10% fewer active listings today than we had in the first week of February?

Yikes!

I’ll keep running this chart through the summer to help track the frenzy.

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