Here’s the first quarter breakdown so you can see how your area compares with others:
NSDCC First Quarter Sales By Area
Town or Area
New Listings, 1Q
Active Listings Today
In yesterday’s 1Q history, there wasn’t any year that got down to a ratio of 2:1 new-listings-to-sales.
All of these except Del Mar are much stronger than 2:1!
The number of active listings is bleak, if you are a buyer, and glorious if you are a seller!
If we do get our regular seasonal increase in inventory over the next two months, it should goose sales even higher. The buyers who have been in the hunt but haven’t won a bidding war yet are highly motivated to get it done!
With the rollout of vaccines against COVID-19, 70% of homeowners in a recent Zillow survey say they would feel mostly or completely comfortable moving to a new home when vaccines are widely distributed — and 78% of homeowners who say widespread vaccine distribution would impact their decision to move say such distribution would makes them more likely to move.
“We expect that the vaccine rollout will likely boost inventory, as sellers become increasingly willing to move despite COVID-19 — resulting in greater numbers of new listings beginning this spring,” says Chris Glynn, principal economist at Zillow. “That injection of inventory could give buyers more options and breathing room in a competitive market. The vaccine, however, will also likely add to already-strong demand, given that most sellers will become buyers as they trade in for a home that better suits their new needs.”
Zillow research shows that 63% of sellers are also buyers. And, as buyers, they have specific reasons for selling. A recent Zillow survey shows that homeowners who are thinking of selling in the next three years have a variety of reasons for doing so.
Additionally, 26% want to live closer to family, 24% wanted out from being responsible for yard work, 14% say their family or household is getting larger and 13% say they can no longer afford their home.
Nearly 40% of homeowners who are considering selling within three years (39%) say they think they’ll get a better price if they wait. They’re not necessarily wrong — although waiting comes with tradeoffs, according to Zillow economist Jeff Tucker.
“Potential sellers are likely correct that home prices have yet to reach their peak,’’ Tucker said, “but in the long run prices tend to rise, so there’s no clear ‘right time’ to sell.”
The catch, he said, is that waiting to sell may raise the cost of trading up to their next home if mortgage interest rates rise.
The real estate market was boisterous in last half of 2020, which made it easy to predict that once we got past the election and into the new year we’d probably see the Greatest Real Estate Frenzy Ever.
Let’s use February 22nd as the day the frenzy really kicked in.
It was the day that this home was listed for sale, after a troubled past:
2005: $679,000 Sold (vacant lot)
2007: $550,000 Sold (vacant lot)
2008: $2,000,000 borrowed from WaMu
2009: House built
2015: $2,137,500 WaMu/Chase FORECLOSED
2016: $1,930,000 Sold
2018: $2,875,000 listed for sale for the next 18 months
2019: $2,044,000 Borrowed in January
2019: $2,225,000 last list price before FORECLOSED
This isn’t the type of environment that you should put much stock in your latest zestimate.
A month ago, on March 3rd, the zestimate was $1,336,035.
Today, on April 4th, it is $1,723,510.
Zillow wants you believe that their zestimates are within 1.9% of being right. But if you would have sold this home to them for the latest zestimate amount, you still would have left $100,000+ on the table.
This is the other article that several people sent in – thank you!
Rob Dawg wondered if these cases of dozens of offers could be tempered by putting the right price on these from the beginning. The agent’s Zillow profile shows 30 sales in the last year – and 26 of those were seller sides which is great and it means she knows something about pricing. But I think when you are pricing a home on the lower-end of the market these days, you can add easily 10% on top of the comps and buyers won’t notice – because other sellers are already doing it too. Note: the agent didn’t take the highest offer here either.
Ellen Coleman had never received so many offers on a house in her 15 years of selling real estate.
She listed a fixer-upper in suburban Washington, DC for $275,000 on a Thursday. By Sunday evening, she had 88 offers. “The offers just kept coming,” she said. “I felt like Lucy with the chocolates. I’m thinking, ‘This is just out of control.'”
Of those 88 offers, 76 were all-cash, said Coleman, who works for RE/MAX Realty Centre. There wasn’t even enough time for all of the bidders to visit the property. She said 15 offers were sight unseen.
The four-bedroom, 1,800 square-foot home sold for $460,000, nearly a 70% increase from the asking price. She said the winning bid was not the highest offer, but it was all-cash with no contingencies and it had paperwork in place.
The buyer, she said, is an investor who is likely to renovate and resell at an even higher price.
“It was a lower priced property for the area and may have been an outlier,” she said. But even her other listings have typically been getting closer to 15 offers. “Several people came in wanting to be homeowners and do the repairs themselves. There is such low inventory out there and people feel like that is a way they can get into a home.”
Thanks to the readers who sent in this article – and it makes you wonder how many offers any house for sale would get if listing agents didn’t shut down the showings so quickly:
CITRUS HEIGHTS, Calif. (KTXL) — A Citrus Heights home in a quiet cul-de-sac received 122 offers in one weekend on the market.
The 1,400 square feet home has three bedrooms, two baths and a spacious backyard with a swimming pool and an asking price of $399,900.00.
“People would think that it was underpriced. It was not underpriced. It was straight on with the comps,” said Deb Brittan, the listing agent for the property. “I had hoped, I thought, maybe if we get 20 offers that would be amazing.”
Barry and Anita Jackier are the sellers of the Citrus Heights home.
“We had this little friendly wager going. I’m like, ‘I think we’re going to get eight offers,” Anita Jackier said.
“I said 10,” Barry Jackier said.
They all underestimated the number of offers, by a lot.
They received 122 offers in one weekend.
“That’s 121 people who didn’t get a house. And that’s kind of heartbreaking in this market to think that there are so many buyers out there. And if you don’t have an agent that understands how to put a strategic offer in on a house and get it accepted, you’re just out burning your gas and a lot of emotional turmoil because of the nature of our market currently,” Brittan said.
Brittan says the highest offer was above $500,000, but that was not the winning offer. There were other factors to consider.
The couple is buying a home in Idaho.
They need time for the escrow to close on that home, so one big factor was they needed a buyer to wait until that happens before moving in.
“I’d like to think that the buyer that was supposed to have gotten the house, has gotten the house,” Brittan said.
The selling price of the home was in the mid-$400,000 range.
“We have so many great memories. And that’s going to be hard to let go of,” Barry Jackier said.
“But you know what I’m excited about is now another family gets to have a blank palate to make all those memories on. We are keeping those memories and they have an opportunity to start their own,” Anita Jackier said.
The couple said they felt called by God to move to Idaho and from that perspective, it’s a miracle they were able to find a home there.
“That house was on the market for three hours,” Anita Jackier told FOX40.
“So I don’t know that it’s going to slow down any time soon. And I don’t know what it’s going to take to slow it down,” Brittan said.
It’s more than just the trendy areas – it’s red-hot everywhere.
Every metro area on the list is having substantial gains in their index, which means there has been a psychological shift happening coast-to-coast on how human beings feel about their homes. With the real-estate-selling business being one of the last totally-free markets left, it’s going to run wild for a while.
The #1 market, Phoenix, hit +1.9% month-over-month, which is incredible for a January reading.
It should put them on track for a +20% to +25% annual gain in 2021, and we won’t be far behind.
I think we might catch them!
San Diego had positive gains straight through the Covid-19 era last year, and now we have 2% monthly gains in our sights for the next few months. Look how that compares to the 2019 readings:
“The strong price gains that we observed in the last half of 2020 continued into the f irst month of the new year. In January 2021, the National Composite Index rose by 11.2% compared to its year-ago levels,” says Craig J. Lazzara,Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The trend of accelerating prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its eighth month and is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 10.9% and 11.1%, respectively). The market’s strength is broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and all 20 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in January 2021 than they had gained in the 12 months ended in December 2020.
“January’s performance is particularly impressive in historical context. The National Composite’s 11.2% gain is the highest recorded since February 2006, just one month shy of 15 years ago. In more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, January’s year-over-year change is comfortably in the top decile. That strength is reflected across all 20 cities. January’s price gains in every city are above that city’s median level, and rank in the top quartile of all reports in 18 cities.
“January’s data remain consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a shift in the demand curve for housing. Future data will be required to analyze this question
“Phoenix’s 15.8% increase led all cities for the 20th consecutive month, with Seattle (+14.3%) and San Diego (+14.2%) close behind. Although prices were strongest in the West (+11.7%), gains were impressive in every region.”
To provide some transparency on the deal-making on the street, here’s a review of properties that have gone pending this week. I didn’t intend to make a blog post out of it, but I had inquired about the availability of these listings, and for my own knowledge I like to ask how many offers the listings agents have received.
They had FIVE OFFERS on 1833 Willowhaven, and another similar home that listed on the same side of the street for $1,299,000 also had multiple offers. A good example of how a few more listings in the lower price ranges should all get picked up.
They had EIGHTEEN OFFERS on this one, because it checks most of the boxes. Well-priced single-level with nice private yard that’s been tastefully renovated. The 17 other buyers will be battling it out for months on these! I commend the listing agents for providing enough access to accommodate that many people and offers.
"Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor. more "
by gary t moyer
"When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since. more "
"Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. more "
"Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. more "
"I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in more "
"Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community... more "
by Ann Romanello
"Jim educated us, helped us find the perfect house, and then negotiated us a great deal. I would hate to be sitting across the negotiating table from ... more "
"Jim is thorough and will be brutally honest about the homes he shows you. He provides great service and follows through until the very end and even ... more "
"I highly recommend Jim as a buyer’s agent. Working with Jim, we closed this week on a San Diego condo. Jim prepared a list of comparable sales to ... more "