The entry-level homes have kept, or exceeded their value from the frenzy. Generally speaking, it takes $2,000,000 or more to buy a decent house between La Jolla and Carlsbad today.
What about higher up?
It was at the peak of the frenzy in early 2022 that three homes sold in ‘The Ranch’ in Carlsbad, a tract of large homes on half-acre lots next to Olivenhain built by Centex in the early 2000s.
This one got the party started when it closed for $4,200,000, which was $1,000,000 over its list price:
https://www.compass.com/listing/3554-camino-arena-carlsbad-ca-92009/988499811730215929/
Then these two closed, and with three recent sales, it looked like it was a $4,000,000 neighborhood:
https://www.compass.com/listing/3603-camino-arena-carlsbad-ca-92009/1005085922918483761/
https://www.compass.com/listing/7915-corte-penca-carlsbad-ca-92009/1021982860260662241/
Here’s what has happened since (and the active listing was refreshed after 186 days):
It looks like $4,000,000 is still a stretch in today’s market.
While the July closing of $3,500,000 made it look like the comps were approaching $4 million again, then the same-sized house closes for $3,225,000 last week, thwarting the momentum.
Here’s how it looked:
At Encinitas Ranch, my record sale of $3,760,000 in November, 2021 is still holding up as the highest-priced sale of the tract homes. There was another sale of a home for the same price in 2022 that was 1,000sf larger than mine, but none higher since – this pending probably won’t get there either.
Lower rates may infuse more curiosity into the real estate market, but buyers will still be cautious now.
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