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San Diego Pricing Momentum

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Speaking of Zillow, they also said in this June article that San Diego home prices would rise 24.7% by May.

How are we doing?

There has never been a great measuring stick for home prices, but let’s look at the most common ones:



Yikes – it looks like home prices have been fairly flat over the last 2-3 months, at least according to the standard ways of measuring. Pricing doesn’t have to rise 2% every month to get to their 24.7%, but having upward momentum is critical because once we roll into Plateau City, it gets harder to convince buyers to overpay. They are already cooling their jets:

Get Good Help!

Zillow Forecast By Area

Here are the latest guesses from Zillow that they’ve sent me over the last month.  They agree with me that next year will be rip-roaring!

In parentheses are the percentage increases for the last year:

NW Carlsbad 92008 (+28%)

SE Carlsbad 92009 (+30%)

NE Carlsbad 92010 (+28%)

SW Carlsbad 92011 (+28%)

Carmel Valley 92130 (+26%)

Del Mar 92014 (+23%)

Encinitas 92024 (+27%)

La Jolla 92037 (+20%)

Rancho Santa Fe 92067 (+23%)

West Bernardo 92127 (+30%)

Basically, we’re going to have a 40% to 50% increase in local home values over two years!

Get Good Help!

Where to Retire

It’s hard to believe that we got smoked by Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit (and Ventura didn’t make the list!), but our housing cost is a barrier. They have many reviews of each city, and for those who take politics into the decision-making process, these links include the voting history in last five presidential elections (including 2020):

America’s Best Cities* for a Healthy (and More Affordable) Retirement

  1. Seattle, Washington
  2. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota
  3. Denver, Colorado
  4. Portland, Oregon
  5. Hartford, Connecticut
  6. Omaha, Nebraska
  7. Baltimore, Maryland
  8. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  9. Cleveland, Ohio
  10. Salt Lake City, Utah
  11. Warren, Michigan
  12. Newark, New Jersey
  13. Richmond, Virginia
  14. Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  15. Grand Rapids, Michigan
  16. Cincinnati, Ohio
  17. Kansas City, Missouri
  18. Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida
  19. Chicago, Illinois
  20. Providence, Rhode Island
  21. St. Louis, Missouri
  22. Tucson, Arizona
  23. Buffalo, New York
  24. Columbus, Ohio
  25. Atlanta, Georgia
  26. Indianapolis, Indiana
  27. Austin, Texas
  28. Dallas, Texas
  29. Fort Lauderdale, Florida
  30. Raleigh, North Carolina
  31. Sacramento, California
  32. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
  33. New Orleans, Louisiana
  34. Louisville, Kentucky
  35. Orlando, Florida
  36. Nashville, Tennessee
  37. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  38. Miami, Florida
  39. Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
  40. Phoenix, Arizona
  41. San Antonio, Texas
  42. Virginia Beach, Virginia
  43. Charlotte, North Carolina
  44. Houston, Texas
  45. Detroit, Michigan
  46. Las Vegas, Nevada
  47. Riverside, California
  48. Memphis, Tennessee
  49. Nassau County-Suffolk County, New York
  50. San Francisco, California
  51. Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, Maryland
  52. Boston, Massachusetts
  53. San Jose, California
  54. Washington, DC–Arlington, Virginia
  55. Anaheim, California
  56. Oakland, California
  57. San Diego, California
  58. Honolulu, Hawaii
  59. New York, New York
  60. Los Angeles, California

*Includes surrounding metropolitan areas, as defined by the United States Census Bureau, including one or more central cities and the surrounding county or counties (which comprise the suburbs).

Inventory Watch

There is nothing normal about the number of homes for sale today:

Date
# of NSDCC Active Listings
# of Pendings
Oct 8, 2018
999
307
Oct 7, 2019
964
305
Oct 5, 2020
619
462
Oct 4, 2021
301
276

We have almost the same number of pendings as we did when there were 3x as many actives!

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(more…)

All-Cash Offers

A reader asked about this company, and but I didn’t think they were operating in California yet.  But they are – and it sounded like a great idea too.

Their initial pitch was to charge 2% for providing the funds for buyers to make all-cash offers on homes.

But they just had to keep going, and now they now have a full staff of clerks to provide realty, mortgage, title, and escrow services too.

https://www.flyhomes.com/

CEO and co-founder: Our approach—which brings every step of the process under one roof—helps buyers separate fear from risk to make more informed homebuying decisions. We are thrilled to bring our reimagined real estate process to create radically different experiences for homebuyers.

It will be radically different alright. They have had seven listings in San Diego County so far, and ALL of the listing agents got their real estate license this year.  Their office is in San Mateo.

The disruptors all think this business looks easy, and by hiring a few novices, they can load up on VC money and conquer.  But they could have offered the initial plan to all realtors and made their 2% on far more sales than they will with their skeleton staff cutting their teeth on the whole process.

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Richard found a company that says they will provide funding for buyers to make all-cash offers, but their website doesn’t mention the program:

https://vimeo.com/user21327396/review/575935386/c4ee7f8712

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It could be a great idea if implemented effectively to all realtors!

Affluent Frenzy

The 3/4 Report!

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales between Jan 1st and September 30

Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
# of Sales Over $2,000,000
2017
3,888
2,385
$1,230,000
459
2018
3,977
2,166
$1,320,000
464
2019
3,947
2,148
$1,320,000
478
2020
3,677
2,207
$1,424,000
554
2021
3,072
2,519
$1,880,000
1,140

We usually have roughly 3,900 listings in the first three quarters of each year, until covid hit. This year, there were 21% fewer listings, yet sales have soared – up 14% above 2020 sales.

The median sales price is up 32% YoY, and the sales over $2,000,000 have MORE THAN DOUBLED last year’s previous record count!

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