Encinitas Fixer Discount

This house first listed for sale on November 1st for $1,650,000, and got all the extras; one Coming Soon, two Holds, four price changes, two Pendings, and finally closed today for $1,397,500.

The listing agent gave it a good go, but it just looked like too much work at the higher prices. A similar-sized home nearby sold for $1,675,000 last month which demonstrates the disdain for the fixers:

Now What?

There has been plenty of buffer built into mortgage rates lately, so more declines are possible. But a hot CPI tomorrow will give mortgage lenders a great reason to raise their rates in advance of the Fed meeting next week.

From MND:

Speaking of big things, the bigger question is “what’s next?”

What indeed!  There are more questions than answers right now.  Some say the bank failures are evidence that the Fed’s tough interest rate policies have “broken something,” and they must now dial back their intensity.

Others say the Fed knew some things would “break” and that they’ll only dial back if lower inflation says they can. To that, others say that inflation is even more likely to move down now that people are worried about the banking system and a recession.

And to that I say we just don’t know yet.  All we do know is that these bank failures are very different than those seen before the financial crisis in several important ways.  We also know the Fed/FDIC/Treasury stepped in with a non-taxpayer-funded plan to calm the market, and it seems to generally be working today.

If the market is calmer, then why are rates still so much lower?  This has to do with the market shifting its expectations for Fed rate hikes in the rest of 2023.  Specifically, the market now sees the Fed hitting a ceiling rate that’s more than 1.5% lower than it was at the beginning of last week!

If that continues to be the case in the coming days, mortgage rates could move down even more.  We’ll learn more about those odds at two key moments: tomorrow morning at 8:30am Eastern Time when we get the next major inflation report, and then next Wednesday afternoon when the Fed releases its latest policy announcement.


Inventory Watch

The 10-year yield has dropped 0.5% since Thursday, which means today’s mortgage rates will probably be the low point of the rest of the year. If the CPI comes out hot tomorrow, the mortgage-rate market will shrug off the banking collapse and get back to rising.

Call it a one-day reprieve!

Buyers usually need to have a property under contract to lock their rate. If you have a lender who allows you to ‘lock and shop’, then today would be a good day to lock (hoping that a few lenders reflect the lower bond yields in their mortgage rates today).

NSDCC Actives & Pendings History, Mid-March:

March 11, 2019: 870 Actives, 284 Pendings

March 16, 2020: 698 Actives, 329 Pendings

March 15, 2021: 332 Actives, 333 Pendings

March 14, 2022: 195 Actives, 196 Pendings

March 13, 2023: 274 Actives, 154 Pendings

Plenty of room for more listings!


Tiny Fest 2023

I still think that there would be high demand for decent-quality tiny homes around $50,000. Of course, all of these guys have options at $100,000+, but I caught a few lower-priced models today:

Sweeping Ocean View

The minute I saw this address I knew that it would have a big ocean view because I sold one in here before. It turns out, I sold this very home in 2001 for $257,000 when it was all-original (I rep’d the seller then). It has since sold for $461,000 in 2005, $429,000 in 2014, $613,000 in 2018, and $979,000 on Thursday.

My buyer is out-of-state and made the offer based on this video – and then came for the home inspection:

Bond Rally

Mortgage rates improving 0.24% in one day is extremely unusual!

In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a company that we’ve never heard about or discussed to the highest profile bank failure since the Great Financial Crisis.

Such developments sound like they should be good for bonds and today was no exception. The news certainly overshadowed today’s jobs report although traders also looked willing to take that in stride (higher headline job creation offset by lower wage growth and higher unemployment).

The net effect was the largest rally in 4 months and one of the 5 biggest rallies of the past decade–at least for Treasuries.


Compass Local Stats

For a company that has been in San Diego for barely five years, Compass has done pretty well. We’ve been #1 since 2019, and in 2020 the volume was $2.13B with 2,372 units – big improvement since!

The agent productivity is around 3-4 annual sales per agent for all companies.  But there are many licensees working on teams who are on salary so it’s not that bleak. But it is getting harder to find agents who are closing one sale per month, which makes it tougher for them to keep their chops up.

$176,000 Over List

This looks like a miracle in the post-frenzy era, so how do you use it for a logical comp? This is a cautionary tale for the buyers looking at the house for sale up the street. It will be likely that someone will see my high sale closed and just go grab the other one without much thought as to the actual value.

And this was Buyer #2, after the cash buyer blew out after two days.

I mis-spoke about the original list price. It was $1,600,000

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