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Friday Update

Friday Wrap-Up!

Thursday Showings: 5

Friday Showings: 11 (+one no-show)

Total Showings: 16 in first 1.5 days on market.

Two offers.

After the first offer, I suggested to the sellers that we raise the list price which I don’t remember ever doing before – and remember plenty of times when I resisted such an idea. We bumped the list price by $20,000 to $1,399,000 knowing we had a good offer higher than that already. It was intended to give second notice on the hotsheets that this might be worth a look, so I added my update for extra transparency:

It may have worked – I have nine more showings tomorrow, making a total of 25 showings in the first 2.5 days on market.  The demand for these newer neighborhoods makes you think we could be selling 2x or 3x the number of homes if there were just more to sell!

La Costa Oaks Gem

Attention multi-gen buyers! Our new listing in La Costa Oaks has the master suite on the first level plus the perfect granny flat too! The flex space upstairs includes two regular bedrooms, two full baths, a massive bonus room, plus library/gaming loft too, all situated on an 8,500sf lot which is rare for newer homes in Carlsbad. Full solar (18 panels!) with battery, immaculate garage with workshop, and Encinitas schools too!

7168 Sitio Corazon, Carlsbad

5 br/5 ba, 3,352sf

YB: 2011

HOA fee = $241/month

Mello-Roos = $800/year

LP: $1,379,000

Entrance to granny flat

Granny apt

Hobby room upstairs

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Only An Occasional Low Sale

The 15% increase from the last peak 15 years ago doesn’t seem bad, though both were bubblelicious thanks to stimulus (exotic financing then and ultra-low rates today).

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/24/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-november-update/

The big difference is that the last bubble was built on the backs of the the under-qualified borrowers who took exotic mortgages from unscrupulous loan brokers.  The bad loans were funneled to Wall Street, where the same thing happened – the Tan Man took advantage of greedy but unknowing financiers and the combined effect exposed the house of cards.  Without the end users making their payments, the machine came to a grinding halt.

Could it happen again?

Because mortgage underwriting has been strict over the last ten years, it’s hard to imagine that a wave of homeowners loaded with equity would get foreclosed – and then the banks would give them away too.

But it is possible that we could have mild swings of 5% to 10%.  But if there were a couple of low sales, wouldn’t the lower-motivated sellers just wait it out? Probably.

Here’s a recent example we can follow – I think we can call this a low sale:

1756 Skimmer Ct., Carlsbad, CA 92011

4 br/2.5 ba, 2,409sf one-story with 3-car garage on a 10,041sf lot.

LP = $1,328,000 on September 10, 2020

SP = $1,000,000 on November 17, 2020.

The home had been on the market for a couple of months and it was time – the seller was ready to move!  My buyers offered the right price, on the right day, and the seller signed it.

It’s a classic example of finding a long-time owner who could sell for less and still walk away with a bucketful of money. The seller paid $430,000 when the home was new in 2001. They didn’t put in any upgrades then or now – it was the original carpet and paint, etc., they made no attempt to improve the property for sale:

https://www.compass.com/listing/1756-skimmer-court-carlsbad-ca-92011/603767865654710185/

The thing to appreciate about this home is that it backs to dedicated open space, where the other side of the street backs to Poinsettia, a four-laner which will soon be connected to the I-5 off-ramp about a mile away.  My buyers benefit from easier access but no noticeable road noise!

New bridge in red

The last two sales of this model were $910,000 and $935,000 in 2017 (does anybody want to pay within 10% of 2017 prices today – yeah!). The last sale on this street was a newly-built 3,380sf home at the end of the street that sold for $1,380,000 in August. It was in the shadow of the power lines, and backed to El Camino Real/Poinsettia intersection with substantial road noise:

Here are the one-story homes sold in the last six months – they average $533/sf, and we closed at $415/sf:

Yes, I’m tooting my own horn for being the agent who recognized that this home was languishing on the market, had an original owner and would be a candidate to sell for less.

But will I be the villian who started the Big Downturn in the 92011? No, every other one-story-home seller nearby will shrug this off and list for at least $500/sf in the foreseeable future.

 

Downtown Carlsbad is Cooking

Two downtown residential condominium buildings with a mixture of market-rate and affordable housing, ground-floor commercial space and underground parking got the go-ahead for construction last week from the Carlsbad City Council.

The Carlsbad Station project will cover 1.76 acres of the city block between State and Roosevelt streets, north of Grand Avenue and a half-block walk from the Carlsbad Village train station. The site includes several different lots with eight buildings constructed between 1947 and 1981, some which are occupied by long-time tenants such as Hennessey’s Tavern that could resume business in the new structures.

The two four-story buildings will include 79 residential condominiums ranging from 14 one-bedroom units, each with 747 square feet, to four four-bedroom units, each with 2,877 square feet. Twelve of the condos will be reserved for occupants who qualify for affordable housing and will be indistinguishable from the market-rate condos. Four commercial units will occupy the ground floor, and the underground parking will have 143 spaces.

Frontage along Roosevelt and State streets will get new curbs, gutters, sidewalks, bike racks, street trees and landscaping.

The City Council voted 3-1 Tuesday to approve a tentative tract map and site development plan for the project, with Councilwoman Cori Schumacher opposed. Schumacher said the city should be “more prescriptive” with its affordable housing requirements, such as specifying whether the affordable condos should be for sale or for rent. City officials said those details will be determined later.

Mayor Matt Hall and a number of long-time Carlsbad residents praised the project.

“You truly went far and beyond,” Hall said of the applicant McKellar McGowan, a San Diego real estate development firm. “I like the architecture and that you will bring back some existing tenants.”

Parts of the two buildings will be set back from the street to make them appear less tall than they really are. The side facing Roosevelt will only have three stories at the street, and the side facing State will only have one floor at the street, with the upper three stories set back 50 feet. A pedestrian promenade will connect Roosevelt and State streets between the two buildings.

Several speakers said the project is an example of “smart growth,” in which more dense residential development with affordable homes is built near public transit, jobs and services.

“This is exactly where a mixed-income project should be located,” said Angeli Calinog , a policy manager for the nonprofit public transit advocate Circulate San Diego.

“This is one of the best projects we’ve seen in many, many years, and the first one to use the new Village and Barrio Master Plan,” said Gary Nessim, a Carlsbad Village business owner. “It fits the community very nicely.”

While all the speakers at the council meeting supported the project, a few residents wrote letters in opposition.

“It’s sad to see major developments taking over our beach town,” wrote lifelong resident Adam Faringhy. “I beg of the City Council to slow their pace and consider saving some of our local landmarks.”

Others said the project would increase traffic congestion and force out more small businesses.

But most were in support, including Christine Davis, executive director of The Carlsbad Village Association, a nonprofit that promotes business and culture in the Village.

“While a large project, it has been thoughtfully broken into smaller pieces to blend into our downtown environment,” Davis wrote.

Link to Article

Firehouse Flip

The guy who bought the Carlsbad firehouse for $803,333 in July, 2019 (there were 28 offers) has resold it for $1,275,000.  Here is the HGTV tour that starts as they roll up to the original listing (we know how HH works – he has already bought the house before filming and they are faking this tour):

Here is how it looked after his renovations:

https://www.compass.com/listing/3701-catalina-drive-carlsbad-ca-92010/596197768623134665/

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