As we roll into the Lowball Season, we’re reminded of what happened in Carmel Valley at the end of 2022. Everyone’s home equity was built up fast and easy over the last 3.5 years, and the more desperate sellers might give it back in big chunks if they had to….and with 8% mortgage rates, they might have to.

How did it turn out last year?

The fourth quarter of 2022 was brutal for the entry-level homes in Pacific Highlands Ranch:

The list pricing was fairly optimistic, and after 30+ days on the market, the lowballers came out. By the time my listing hit the market (the last on the list), our list price was revised down to $1,599,000 to ensure we would sell right away – and hopefully for more, which we did, and stop the trend.

Did the pricing bounce back this year?

The first sale of 2023 closed right away for $1,690,000, and it seemed like the comeback was underway. But then the next sale was $1,560,000 – and it has hampered the pricing ever since:

The big threat isn’t going to be foreclosures. It will be the equity-rich sellers who dump on price to get out – and they will impact future sales. A couple of lowballs can turn into a trend!

Letters like these probably won’t help either:

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