More on 2023

Yesterday I joined Molly of Real Talk Media for a couple of thoughts about next year’s market:

The key to market conditions will be the inventory – no surprise there.

If there was a surge of newer McMansions for sale that were upgraded, well-presented, and had decent backyards, it would light the market on fire, mostly because we haven’t had many of those.

But it is more likely that we will have more of what we’ve had lately – homes for sale that are of the scratch-and-dent variety. They are ok, but not the premium creampuffs that every buyer desires.

The higher-end market will probably struggle a bit as sellers and agents slip back into the old normal where they ‘list ’em high and let them ride’, believing that it takes months to sell a more-expensive home. It doesn’t, but if you don’t have to sell, have plenty of time, and you’re not going to give it away, it is a fine strategy. Call Opendoor and see what they say.

There will be fewer realtors overall, and hardly anyone working with buyers – it’s too hard, and too time-consuming. With less good help, the price will really need to be right for buyers to proceed on their own.

Pricing? We don’t have a good way to measure, just bad ways. The median sales price will probably trend downward due to fewer of the higher-end sales.  But sales of the sub-$3,000,000 creampuffs between La Jolla and Carlsbad will determine whether the median sales price goes up or down.

The Transition

The second half of 2022 starts next week. Where do we go from here?

Things we can expect:

  1. Sales are dropping and will likely be lower for 1-3 years.
  2. Mortgage rates aren’t going back to 3%…..but they might hang around in the 4s.
  3. Until the capital-gains tax is drastically reduced, long-timers want to stay put.
  4. San Diego is a desirable destination for affluent downsizers.
  5. Our home prices look attractive to affluent downsizers.
  6. Leaving San Diego is less appealing, due to rising home prices elsewhere.
  7. A slower pace might encourage sales and keep buyers engaged.
  8. Rents can go up by 10% starting August 1st.
  9. The media, especially social media, is a negative influence.
  10. There is game-changing commotion within the industry.

Let’s tackle these and other topics as we get closer to 2023 – I’ve created a new blog-post category today conveniently entitled, ‘2023’ at the top of this page.


The article below confirms that:

  1. San Diego is NOT in the Top 10 places that people want to leave,
  2. Half of the places people are leaving are more expensive than here, and
  3. We ARE in the Top 10 destinations of where people want to move:


If you were an affluent downsizer looking at those ten choices, which would you select?  It also means that the North San Diego County coastal market will probably be dependent upon those buyers coming from more-expensive areas – and that those markets continue to hold up there.

We will find a way to survive the next six months, and by the 2023 Selling Season we should see a healthy increase in supply and demand.  The worst thing that will happen is that pricing might be lower, which buyers won’t mind.

Get Good Help!


Another good day for rates – from midday Friday, July 29th:


Combine those lower rates with the occasional motivated seller, and…..we’ll see where this ends up:

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