Slime All Around

The real estate industry gets accused of its slimy tactics quite frequently, and it is well deserved – you really should Get Good Help!

In a last-ditch effort to survive, the red team went into the rental business recently. Here they have been publishing a ‘corporate rental’ that has been fed to them by Rently – who has ‘refreshed’ their listing a couple of times:

So then this real estate broker and mortgage licensee from the Bay Area comes along and steals the photos and advertises 4100 El Arbol (not 5100) on this slimy ‘national MLS‘ at a ridiculously low for-sale price (about HALF of the actual value).

The Z team – no stranger to the real estate slime – picks up their feed and is now advertising it publicly:

Hat tip to realtor Tanya who alerted me to this fraud! She contacted them yesterday to report it and was told that they would remove it right away. But as of this morning, it is still an active listing:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4100-El-Arbol-Dr-Carlsbad-CA-92008/447767066_zpid/

Why would a long-time real estate broker from San Jose bother to devise this concoction? He must be selling leads to realtors – another slimy part of the business. I get 2-3 solicitations every day from people who want to give me leads and all I have to do is cut them in on the commission (I ignore them).

Here’s an example:

Here’s how it turned out (plus cases against Capital One and a Berkshire-owned mortgage company):

https://apnews.com/article/cfpb-drops-capital-one-rocket-lawsuits-e3a4a18ccd9ddd97610ef23fd6b843b2

The slime is all around – Get Good Help!

Compass And The Future 2


In the post-settlement world where agents are expected to prove their value, Compass will soon unveil a new client-facing portal that it says will streamline the transaction process for buyers and sellers while also helping its agents build more business.

The new portal is being introduced as Compass continues to push agents and consumers toward its private listings channel — betting on a future where the hotly contested Clear Cooperation Policy is repealed.

An all-in-one interface for buyers and sellers

According to Rory Golod, Compass’ president of growth and communications, the portal — dubbed Compass One — is “the first of its kind” in the industry, allowing an agent and client to work together through the entire transaction. The brokerage has also called the product, which it developed fully in-house, “the #1 most requested piece of technology” for agents and clients. Compass built it out in phases, Golod said, starting with the agent tools and then creating Compass One.

“It’s interesting that in other advisory businesses — whether it’s banking, accounting or other businesses — you log into a portal,” he explained to Real Estate News. “If you work with a private wealth manager, you go to their portal, you see all your assets, your communications, and your documents.”

The platform offers a detailed timeline of the buying and selling process along with the expected timing for each step. Service providers such as mortgage brokers or inspectors “live in here too,” Golod said.

Pushing private listings, helping sellers avoid ‘negative insights’

But bringing the client, agent and other professionals together isn’t the only thing the new platform does. It also integrates the company’s “3-phase marketing strategy” where agents are encouraged to pitch sellers on the Compass Private Exclusives channel first and the Compass Coming Soon channel second before going to the open market. The company formally launched this strategy last November.

“Taking a listing and just throwing it on the MLS and aggregators on the first day you launch it without getting any feedback from the market, understanding if you’re priced right, understanding what the demand is and building up interest — you’re not serving your clients’ best interests,” Golod explained.

Currently, Compass has about 5,500 Private Exclusive listings, a spokesperson said.

One of the first tasks for sellers and their agents in the One Compass portal is to discuss the Compass Private Exclusives channel. Golod said the push toward private listings puts regular home sellers on the same footing as “homebuilders, celebrities and ultra-high-net worth clients” who often sell their homes off the MLS, and it helps sellers avoid “negative insights that hurt their value” such as days on market and price reductions.

Read the full article here:

https://www.realestatenews.com/2025/02/01/compass-launches-client-portal-amid-private-listings-push

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

The discussion of the future went a bit further yesterday on Greg’s blog:

https://www.vendoralley.com/2025/02/02/crmls-aint-playing/#comments

All of the listings mentioned above were listed in the MLS and available for buyer-agents to sell. But where are they? Realtors will tolerate the current policy for a while longer, but we don’t like it either – and though the MLS used to be the ideal solution for all involved, those days are behind us now. For many agents, representing buyers is more trouble than its worth.

Remember a couple of years ago when I started predicting that buyer-agents will go away?

This is it – it’s happening right in front of us, and nothing will stop it.

Home Buyer Tips

What can home buyers do to simplify their search?

Being realistic is a great place to start. Virtually every realtor promises to find you a ‘dream home’, and it’s easy to believe that there must be a perfect home out there, no matter the price range.

The perfect homes start at $10 million though. If you are in that range, I will find you a dream home!

Everyone else will have to kiss a few frogs to help narrow the search to homes that are suitable.

Here are a few quick ideas to help qualify the homes you see:

  • You will be considering older homes that could use some work. Only consider buying the homes that have at least HALF of the necessary remodeling already completed. Unless it has a spectacular location or other premium feature, then make sure the seller has given you a quality head start on the remodeling.
  • Expect to spend $25,000 to $50,000 on any house you buy. It changes the mindset from searching for the perfect home to a realistic hunt for where you will spend the money to add your personal touches to someone else’s home.
  • If this purchase might be your forever home, then insist on at least 2,000sf.
  • Compromise is part of the package. But limit your compromises to one or two only. If you find yourself seeing more than two things you don’t like, then this home ain’t for you. Importantly, this isn’t the last home for sale – there will be othesr!

The preferred features to consider in your search: location, private, sunny backyard, interior with natural light, larger functional kitchen, one-story, view or visual openness, 3-car garage, bedroom suite downstairs, possible forever home.

Get Good Help!

“Locked-In Effect” Debunked

Hat tip to Jorge who sent in this interview with Jeffrey Gundlach, the prominent bond trader who speculates with confidence on the Fed’s half-point cut and what it means for the markets. He speaks quite knowledgeably about everything except the future of the housing market, which he called the ‘wild card’ for the economy.

This video starts where he says that he expects another 3/4% Fed cut this year, and then housing:

He said that none of us really know what’s going to happen……but let’s use math to predict the future.

My Theory:

It’s the HIGHER HOME PRICES that are locking in the current homeowners, not mortgage rates.

Everyone who bought a home before 2022 is enjoying a bonanza of new-found equity. Let’s use the 2019 buyer for an example. They hit the jackpot to buy a regular home for $1,300,000 back then, and now it’s worth around $2,385,000 – wow, an extra million dollars of equity, just like that!

Some may have a good reason to move, and they are DREAMING about using their same equity, and same mortgage amount to buy up and live with a slightly-higher rate.

But they can’t buy a much-better house for $2,385,000 – they already own a similar-sized house! The old house that was worth $1,300,000 is now $2,385,000. So they have to spend more to make it worth moving.

My rule-of-thumb is 50% more, or $3,577,500.

But let’s say that they work with a really sharp, experienced realtor and find a home that makes it worth moving for $3,200,000 and use ALL of their equity from the old house after closing costs:

Let’s also point out that in California the property taxes would go up an additional $1,742 per month, so the $11,345 + $1,741 = $13,086 MORE PER MONTH to move to a better home in the same area. Even if rates were to drop to 3.5%, the combined P&I+T = $10,713 per month.

“You’re killing me, Jim – aren’t there any other alternatives?” Yes, there are two:

  1. Buy a smaller, crappier house in the same area.
  2. Move out of town.

That’s it, or throw down another $1,000,000 in cash to keep the loan amount down where it was.

What does it mean for the 2025 market?

Mortgage rates should be lower than they are today, and probably in the mid-5%s. There will be a new president, and all the wait-and-see buyers who were determined to see the Fed cut rates before venturing out again will be storming the streets en masse. Those first-time buyers and out-of-towners are used to these prices now and will succumb.

What about the supply? We will have a similar number of deaths, divorces, and job-transfers (The Big Three) who always sell every year. Will those who bought a home since 2022 who made a mistake and bought the wrong house be motivated to sell? Not unless they can buy something at least equal or better – the ego can’t take a step down, so they may just refi to a lower rate instead.

But those who already own a house here will appreciate it even more, because once they look around, they will realize that their existing home will have to last them forever – they’re not moving!

Concessions Paid After One Month

The new rules don’t allow the MLS to publish on active listings how much buyer-agent commission is being offered by the seller and listing agent. But in a strange quirk, the CRMLS – the biggest MLS in California covering about half of the state – now requires that when marking a listing sold, the listing agents have to publish how much compensation was paid to the buyer-agent.

Since August 17th, there have been 173 NSDCC closed sales, and 54 of them published the buyer-agent compensation paid (CRMLS and SDAR are the competing associations/MLS companies in the county, and SDAR doesn’t require these stats from listing agents).

Of the 54 sales who published the amount paid, here is the breakdown:

2.5%: 25 (46%)

2.25%: 4 (7%)

2.0%: 20 (37%)

1.5%: 2 (4%)

1.0%: 1 (2%)

Zero: 1 (2%)

This is roughly the same mix that we’ve seen since April when I first started logging the commission rates being offered by the listing agents. We will follow this trend because buyers deserve to know the chances of them having to pay some or all of the commission to their buyer-agent.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I have every intention of persuading the seller and listing agent to pay my buyer-agent fee.

In the event that we get stuck with an unreasonable seller/listing agent who insists on paying little or nothing – and the buyer doesn’t want to pay either – then I’m not going to hold you to it. I’m going to turn you over to the listing agent and bow out gracefully, if you don’t mind, because Donna doesn’t work for free (she plugs in once we have an accepted offer).

Why would I be willing to work for free for weeks or months? Because that risk has always been part of the buyer-agent environment – historically, we have always risked spending our time without any promise of getting paid. It’s the main reason why we deserve good compensation – it is risky. I will take my chances that I can get the seller and listing agent to come around, and/or have the buyer recognize and appreciate our services enough that I’ll get paid. If not, then fine.

Fair?

Jim’s Buyers

The lawyers think we should do more to prove our worth, so I’ll mention our recent sales where we represented the buyers.

Some may think we are too busy to help them or have other pre-conceived ideas, but hopefully these will help to demonstrate our ability to assist buyers. I encourage every buyer and seller to review an agent’s Zillow account to examine their sales plus reviews – here is a link to ours.

1. The sellers were getting divorced and we thought their price was attractive for a good-looking home in a premium south-facing location so we offered full price, and they took it.

https://www.compass.com/listing/1815-hawk-view-drive-encinitas-ca-92024/1530810296105033849/

2. Our buyers wanted to purchase a single-story turnkey home with view for less than $1,000,000 – which is getting harder and harder to accomplish. This had a new kitchen and primary bathroom, so our folks installed new hardwoods to complete the full package.

https://www.compass.com/listing/28782-vista-valley-drive-vista-ca-92084/1526160553594195545/

3. Our buyer completed a 1031 exchange with this groovy 2br condo west of the freeway in downtown Carlsbad. We made cash offers and lost out on six other properties before finally landing this gem:

https://www.compass.com/listing/2820-hope-avenue-unit-g-carlsbad-ca-92008/1577724336268812193/

4. Getting a house this size in Carmel Valley for this money has only happened four times this year – and one of those was an off-market sale, and another was one of the goofy Harcourt auctions:

https://www.compass.com/listing/11653-thistle-hill-place-san-diego-ca-92130/1568249663348126825/

5. This closed yesterday for $2,475,000, or $626/sf which is great for a Davidson-built home of this size. Donna got a $14,000 credit for repairs too!

https://www.compass.com/listing/6626-halite-place-carlsbad-ca-92009/1571935113317168201/

I cover all price points and areas, and my specialty is identifying the less-obvious concerns while we are at the home or by video – which works great if you are busy or out-of-town.

I do all the showings and negotiate the contracts myself, and then Donna takes over. Once the home inspection is complete, she gets quotes for anything that needs attention and then goes to work on the sellers so they pay part or all of the expense.

I don’t think I’ve ever sold an actual ‘dream’ home. My buyers typically get a premium property at an attractive price – and I tell every buyer to expect to spend $25,000 to $50,000 on any house you buy!

Another Story From the Field

Whenever I have a buyer who loses out on a bidding war, I try to get them right back on the horse. Thankfully, there are several houses sitting around that aren’t not selling in the $3 million range, so we made another offer yesterday.

First, I went to the open house and discussed for 30 minutes the state of the market (soft and picky), the good and bad features of the home, the sellers’ motivation, and generally built rapport with the listing agent who I had never met.

His listing of a 5,000sf tract home on a smaller lot has been for sale since April.

I mentioned that people don’t need a house this big. Buyers would rather spend less on a house that still suits their needs without the extra bedrooms, library, wine tasting room, etc. He mentioned that he had comps, and I pointed out that nobody else is coming to the open house. The market has changed.

The list price is $3,598,000.

We offered $3,150,000 with closing in two weeks.

I mentioned in my email that since the sellers had paid $2,100,000 in 2020, that they would experience 50% appreciation in four short years, or 100% cash-on-cash return on their $1 million down payment when they bought it, which is unheard of in the history of real estate.

He called me this morning.

He said that they are willing to counter $3,575,000, or $23,000 below list.

Don’t think that this market is going to get easier. The amount, and the quality of help will be going down further with the new rules. It will make it harder and harder to put deals together.

Get Good Help!

August 17

This will probably be the day that the real estate world changes forever. It will end up being the day that more paperwork buried the participants, which we’ll get through but it will take a few months before consumers get comfortable with it.

I’d like to memorialize the day with a story from the field. I mentioned that we made an offer last Sunday on a hot new listing in Carlsbad. We finally had a conclusion yesterday.

My buyer offered $3,730,000, which was $230,000 over the list price, and had an 80% down payment.

We lost.

We found out when the auto-notification was received that it had been marked pending. We had to wait for five days, and that’s how it ended – nice.

Those who think it looks easy to just go out and buy a house without any help, good luck to you. It is probably easier these days to buy an overpriced house that has been on the market for weeks, but if you want a good buy, don’t be surprised if it is hotly contested. For the rest of time.

Pin It on Pinterest