fbpx

Over List, June

The percentage of buyers who were willing to pay over list reached another all-time high in June:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

There were 37% of the total sales that closed for $100,000+ over list price!

The action was really hot in the $2,000,000s – the other price ranges cooled off slightly:

Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%

After rising in six-figure amounts the previous month, it looks like pricing might be leveling off too:

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500

We’ve been experiencing the hottest real estate market in the history of the world!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

More Frenzy Measuring

Based on these closed sales, the local frenzy has been steady this year – though these are results of buying decisions made as far back as January and February.

For the most part, we have as many or more sales, and the same or higher LP:SP ratios over the last 60 days compared to the sales in the 60 days prior to April 23rd:

Detached-Home Sales By Zip Code

Town/Area
Zip Code
Sales 60 days Prior to April 23
LP:SP Ratio
Last 60 Days
LP:SP Ratio
Carlsbad NW
92008
40
103%
32
104%
Carlsbad SE
92009
95
105%
118
106%
Carlsbad NE
92010
15
105%
22
106%
Carlsbad SW
92011
29
103%
29
106%
Encinitas
92024
87
103%
92
104%
Carmel Valley
92130
72
101%
88
101%

This shows that the frenzy trends have been fairly consistent so far this year. Tomorrow we’ll take another look at the active and pending counts to see if there is any drop-off in the works.

Over List, May

The number of  May sales dropped month-over-month, even when we tack on another 10-25 late-reporters to the current tally:

NSDCC April sales: 357

NSDCC May Sales: 294

The April, 2021 sales were 35% higher than in April, 2019, but this year’s May sales were about the same as in 2019 (297). Was it due to less inventory? Not really:

NSDCC April Listings: 378

NSDCC May Listings: 371

But about the same percentage of buyers paid over list price:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list.

The big winners who got 20% or more over list:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$985,000
$1,251,000
27%
$1,495,000
$1,900,000
27%
$1,349,000
$1,657,500
23%
$1,375,000
$1,688,000
23%
$1,500,000
$1,850,000
23%

Is anyone surprised that sales are slowing down?

Not when you consider how fast the pricing went up just between April and May. The average list price jumped $200,000, and median list price increased $100,000 in just one month:

NSDCC Pricing of Monthly Listings

Average List Price, April: $2,396,667

Average List Price, May: $2,596,992 (+8%)

Median List Price, April: $1,799,900

Median List Price, May: $1,900,000 (+6%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

But how we measure the sales prices went up more. The average sales price went up $177,753, and the median sales price went up $166,500 – which is a 9% INCREASE IN ONE MONTH!

NSDCC Pricing of Monthly Sales

Average Sales Price, April: $2,403,962

Average Sales Price, May: $2,581,715 (+7%)

Median Sales Price, April: $1,828,000

Median Sales Price, May: $1,994,500 (+9%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Percentage Who Paid Over List By Price Range:

Under $1.0M: 89% of all sales

$1.0M – $1.5M: 84%

$1.5M – $2.0M: 72%

$2.0M – $3.0M: 34%

Over $3.0M: 22%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It is natural to have sales decline with rapid price increases. The buyers at the margins can get priced out in a week or two, and then we have others who give up and aren’t going to play this game any more – or not until it becomes more rational.

We could be in for a Frenzy Soft Landing, where fewer sellers get lucky as we coast into the pricing plateau that should be coming later this year.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NSDCC Over List, April

The trend of paying over the list price continues!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list.

The big winners who got 20% or more over list:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,900,000
$2,450,000
29%
$1,900,000
$2,400,000
26%
$1,999,900
$2,500,000
25%
$1,395,000
$1,740,000
25%
$969,000
$1,210,000
25%
$1,399,000
$1,700,000
22%
$1,099,000
$1,316,000
20%

NSDCC Sales, April: 343

(the number of sales was 29% higher than in April, 2019)

Average List Price: $2,396,667

Average Sales Price: $2,403,962 (100%)

Median List Price: $1,799,900 ($100k higher than it was at the mid-April checkpoint)

Median Sales Price: $1,828,000 (102%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List By Price Range:

Under $1.0M: 23 (79% of all sales)

$1.0M – $1.5M: 65 (78%)

$1.5M – $2.0M: 63 (665)

$2.0M – $3.0M: 23 (32%)

Over $3.0M: 15 (22%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Some people have asked about the biggest winner because I sold the same model up the street for $1,900,000 in March.  It had listed for $1,800,000. and there were three comps around $1.8 million then.  My buyers offered the customary $100,000 over list and a 17-day escrow to win it, and they did.

It was the same model, with similar upgrades (mostly original), and similar peak ocean view, though the biggest winner had a larger culdesac lot which allowed for a pool and good-sized grass area, and the sellers had smartly added new wide-plank hardwood floors and did staging.

I know an agent who had buyers in the running at $2,200,000 but bowed out at that point. But he thought there were three other buyers going higher.

It sold for $2,450,000, which was 36% above the comps from the beginning of the year!

https://www.compass.com/listing/6343-di-vita-drive-carlsbad-ca-92009/744821423213993689/

I can’t apply any rational real estate practices to explain it.

Over List, April (First Half)

The trend of paying over the list price continues!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

1/2April: 57%

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list. There were only 18 of 173 (10%) that sold for a double-digit percentage over list. The big winners:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$969,000
$1,210,000
25%
$1,399,000
$1,700,000
22%
$1,099,000
$1,316,000
20%
$1,425,000
$1,675,000
18%
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
17%
$1,499,000
$1,750,000
17%
$999,000
$1,160,000
16%

NSDCC Sales, April (First Half): 173

(the number of sales was 45% higher than same period in 2019)

Average List Price: $2,349,402

Average Sales Price: $2,352,561 (100%)

Median List Price: $1,700,000

Median Sales Price: $1,750,000 (103%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List By Price Range:

Under $1.0M: 12

$1.0M – $1.5M: 34

$1.5M – $2.0M: 36

$2.0M – $3.0M: 12

Over $3.0M: 5

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NSDCC Over List, March

The trend of paying over the list price is increasing.

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list which will cover some or all of the commission. There were 22 of 244 (9%) that went double-digit over list. The big winners:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,299,000
$1,655,000
27%
$989,000
$1,200,000
21%
$749,000
$900,000
20%
$1,325,000
$1,580,000
19%
$1,900,000
$2,255,551
19%
$1,535,000
$1,800,000
17%
$2,800,000
$3,200,000
16%
$2,198,000
$2,510,000
14%
$2,695,000
$3,075,000
14%

NSDCC Sales, March: 244 

Average List Price: $2,285,792

Average Sales Price: $2,252,883 (99%)

Median List Price: $1,788,500

Median Sales Price: $1,810,000 (101%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List By Price Point:

Under $1.0M: 6

$1.0M – $1.5M: 44

$1.5M – $2.0M: 39

$2.0M – $3.0M: 32

Over $3.0M: 8

A real bell curve there!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The most sales over list are happening right where you’d expect:

Most Sales Over List By Area:

SE Carlsbad, 92009: 32 of 41 sales were over list (78%).

Carmel Valley, 92130: 22 of 32 sales were over list (69%).

Encinitas, 92024: 24 of 41 sales were over list (59%).

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How Much Over List?

The trend of paying over the list price is increasing.

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 51% (of the first 75 closed sales of the month)

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list which will cover some or all of the commission. There were only four that went double-digit over:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,900,000
$2,255,551
19%
$1,200,000
$1,350,000
13%
$1,750,000
$1,953,800
12%
$1,095,000
$1,205,000
10%

NSDCC Sales, March 1st-10th: 75

Average List Price: $2,072,379

Average Sales Price: $2,049,937 (99%)

Median List Price: $1,750,000

Median Sales Price: $1,800,000 (103%)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How Much Over List, February

Here are the percentages from January:

Link to January Blog Post

Here are February’s winners:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,595,000
$2,060,000
29%
$1,300,000
$1,602,000
23%
$1,550,000
$1,825,000
18%
$1,079,000
$1,225,000
14%
$1,395,000
$1,600,000
15%
$899,000
$1,016,000
13%
$1,150,000
$1,300,000
13%
$1,150,000
$1,305,000
13%
$1,350,000
$1,510,000
12%
$1,399,000
$1,561,000
12%
$1,949,000
$2,180,000
12%
$1,900,000
$2,100,000
11%

Those are the only double-digit winners out of 216 sales, and only 43% of the total sold for more than list.

How much crazier could it get if we did auctions?

NSDCC February Stats (so far):

Sales: 216 (+16% YoY)

Average LP: $2,308,952

Average SP: $2,263,457 (98% of list)

Median LP: $1,699,500

Median SP: $1,736,000 (102% of list)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

How Much Over List?

We’ve had 208 closed SFR sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad this year.

How crazy is it?

Eighty homes sold over the list price, which is 38% of the total number of sales. Of those, most were just $10,000 to $50,000 over list, but there were some big bombers:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,150,000
$1,500,000
30%
$1,500,000
$1,750,000
17%
$1,850,000
$2,100,000
14%
$1,500,000
$1,710,000
14%
$650,000
$740,000
14%
$2,199,000
$2,475,000
13%
$2,395,000
$2,660,000
11%
$2,250,000
$2,495,000
11%
$2,995,000
$3,300,000
10%
$1,449,000
$1,600,000
10%

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It’s not just paying more than the list price. The listing agents will test your mettle too.

Here’s a seller counter-offer on a million-dollar home with nine offers on it:

The house was built in the 1980s, and you expect the buyer to take it as-is without a home-inspection contingency? And you’re going to get 5% to 10% over list price, but you can’t throw in a home warranty?

There will be buyers who would have paid more money but who drop out when they see the extra demands.

Listing agents believe that this is how you get rid of the buyers who ‘aren’t serious’, but in reality it just limits the remaining buyer pool to the emotionally-charged-and-will-sign-anything buyers.  They are the ones that are less likely to close escrow.

Pin It on Pinterest