Over List, January

There were 23 buyers who paid over the list price last month. There were 29 in the previous month, but because there were 20 fewer sales in December, the percentage looks much larger.

Cash buyers purchased 41 of the 107 sales, or 38%.

Fifteen of the sales were round-tripped (buyer and seller represented by the same agent). Thirteen of the sales had zero days on market. Of those, six were round-tripped.

With all the desperation among realtors due to the lower volume, you’d think the shenanigans would be rising faster, but those numbers are fairly normal. Last January, there were nine of the 105 sales that had zero days-on-market.

Our lousy pricing metrics stayed towards the higher end of the 10% range:

NSDCC Monthly Sales and Pricing

With the hot CPI report today, mortgage rates should be heading higher and take some of the buzz out of the marketplace. Get an FHA or VA mortgage and save 3/4%!

Over List, December

The total number of December sales is up to 86, and there’s a chance it might get to 100 but it will probably take another month before all the late-reporters check in. But we saw that 12 buyers were willing to pay $100,000+ over list , and the 34% is a nice pop for what should have been a very quiet December!

NSDCC Average and Median Prices by Month

The lousy way we measure pricing makes it look softer than it has been over the last few months, but compared to last December, it’s virtually identical. Chalk it up to cheaper houses selling in December!

Frustration Fee

It’s amazing how resilient the local market has been, and how willing buyers are to paying over the list price.

I don’t have any evidence to suggest that the transparency has improved (most listing agents refuse to say anything about existing offers, if any) and usually there aren’t any recent sales to indicate that today’s listings are underpriced.

Yet in late-2023, buyers were still willing to pay substantially above list! Here are a few examples:

Paying Over List Price Continues

If there was going to be a time when the local market might soften up a bit, it would be around November/December, wouldn’t it? If the majority of the recent sales closed at 10% discounts or more, then it would be nervous time, but most buyers are still paying fairly close to list – or higher.

We’ve had 47 closed sales in December so far, and pricing is holding up. Next year probably will too!

Over List, November

There were 18% of NSDCC November sales that closed over their list price, which was better than 2022.  The YoY pricing metrics have popped as well – all are at least 18% HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR:

NSDCC Monthly Sales & Pricing

The number of sales should drift up to last year’s 118, or maybe a tad more.

Over List, October

The number of sales and percentage of homes that closed over their list price were better last month than they were last October, but that’s not saying much.

The late-summer surge has subsided, and the last two months of 2023 should bring in a couple of hundred more sales without much change to the pricing stats.

A look at the individual sales is more volatile though. This price point used to be 100% over list:

Over List, September

The willingness of buyers to pay over the list price will probably keep dropping off, just like it did last year. There were discounts too, with 16% of the September sales closing at 10% or more BELOW their list price.

The lousy way we measure pricing makes it look like the market is steady:

In the months when the average and median sales prices increased, it didn’t mean your home’s value went up – it just means that the set of homes were a little bigger and nicer than other months. And vice versa!

Today, there are only 134 pendings, so it will be in the monthly sales counts where we’ll see impact. Last year, the monthly sales in the fourth quarter were 133, 123, and 110, and if we can get close to those counts with mortgages around 8%, it would be great.

Over List, August

Given that mortgage rates have been above 7% since the beginning of July, it’s incredible to see August having the highest sales count for 2023!

September is looking pretty good too – there have already been 57 closings this month.

The pricing is holding up too. What a market!

It’s never been like this – Get Good Help!

Over List, July 2023

The average and median sales prices last month were similar to what they were in December, even though the same percentage of buyers paid over the list price.

It might make you think that this market is retreating quickly!

But look at the difference of the number of lower-end sales, and square footages:

The size of the houses weren’t that different, so what’s up?

Buyers aren’t bidding up the prices like they were before. Here’s an example of those right under the median sales price last month:

Instead of overbidding by hundreds of thousands of dollars, buyers in July mostly stayed in their shoes and only offered a little over the list price. Expect that trend to continue!

Over List, June

The need to pay over the list price has diminished a bit, but about a third of buyers who closed last month still felt like it was worth paying more than the sellers were asking.

Last month looked a lot like June, 2022! There were 24% fewer sales however, and that trend should continue through the rest of 2023:

There were 20% fewer listings YoY last month, so with virtually all of the current active listings holding out on price and very little new product to consider, the fate of the 2H23 market will be back to the buyers – how bad do you need to buy a house right now, versus waiting for Spring 2024?

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