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Over List, April (First Half)

The trend of paying over the list price continues!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

1/2April: 57%

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list. There were only 18 of 173 (10%) that sold for a double-digit percentage over list. The big winners:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$969,000
$1,210,000
25%
$1,399,000
$1,700,000
22%
$1,099,000
$1,316,000
20%
$1,425,000
$1,675,000
18%
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
17%
$1,499,000
$1,750,000
17%
$999,000
$1,160,000
16%

NSDCC Sales, April (First Half): 173

(the number of sales was 45% higher than same period in 2019)

Average List Price: $2,349,402

Average Sales Price: $2,352,561 (100%)

Median List Price: $1,700,000

Median Sales Price: $1,750,000 (103%)

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Over List By Price Range:

Under $1.0M: 12

$1.0M – $1.5M: 34

$1.5M – $2.0M: 36

$2.0M – $3.0M: 12

Over $3.0M: 5

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NSDCC Over List, March

The trend of paying over the list price is increasing.

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list which will cover some or all of the commission. There were 22 of 244 (9%) that went double-digit over list. The big winners:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,299,000
$1,655,000
27%
$989,000
$1,200,000
21%
$749,000
$900,000
20%
$1,325,000
$1,580,000
19%
$1,900,000
$2,255,551
19%
$1,535,000
$1,800,000
17%
$2,800,000
$3,200,000
16%
$2,198,000
$2,510,000
14%
$2,695,000
$3,075,000
14%

NSDCC Sales, March: 244 

Average List Price: $2,285,792

Average Sales Price: $2,252,883 (99%)

Median List Price: $1,788,500

Median Sales Price: $1,810,000 (101%)

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Over List By Price Point:

Under $1.0M: 6

$1.0M – $1.5M: 44

$1.5M – $2.0M: 39

$2.0M – $3.0M: 32

Over $3.0M: 8

A real bell curve there!

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The most sales over list are happening right where you’d expect:

Most Sales Over List By Area:

SE Carlsbad, 92009: 32 of 41 sales were over list (78%).

Carmel Valley, 92130: 22 of 32 sales were over list (69%).

Encinitas, 92024: 24 of 41 sales were over list (59%).

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How Much Over List?

The trend of paying over the list price is increasing.

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 51% (of the first 75 closed sales of the month)

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list which will cover some or all of the commission. There were only four that went double-digit over:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,900,000
$2,255,551
19%
$1,200,000
$1,350,000
13%
$1,750,000
$1,953,800
12%
$1,095,000
$1,205,000
10%

NSDCC Sales, March 1st-10th: 75

Average List Price: $2,072,379

Average Sales Price: $2,049,937 (99%)

Median List Price: $1,750,000

Median Sales Price: $1,800,000 (103%)

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How Much Over List, February

Here are the percentages from January:

Link to January Blog Post

Here are February’s winners:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,595,000
$2,060,000
29%
$1,300,000
$1,602,000
23%
$1,550,000
$1,825,000
18%
$1,079,000
$1,225,000
14%
$1,395,000
$1,600,000
15%
$899,000
$1,016,000
13%
$1,150,000
$1,300,000
13%
$1,150,000
$1,305,000
13%
$1,350,000
$1,510,000
12%
$1,399,000
$1,561,000
12%
$1,949,000
$2,180,000
12%
$1,900,000
$2,100,000
11%

Those are the only double-digit winners out of 216 sales, and only 43% of the total sold for more than list.

How much crazier could it get if we did auctions?

NSDCC February Stats (so far):

Sales: 216 (+16% YoY)

Average LP: $2,308,952

Average SP: $2,263,457 (98% of list)

Median LP: $1,699,500

Median SP: $1,736,000 (102% of list)

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How Much Over List?

We’ve had 208 closed SFR sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad this year.

How crazy is it?

Eighty homes sold over the list price, which is 38% of the total number of sales. Of those, most were just $10,000 to $50,000 over list, but there were some big bombers:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,150,000
$1,500,000
30%
$1,500,000
$1,750,000
17%
$1,850,000
$2,100,000
14%
$1,500,000
$1,710,000
14%
$650,000
$740,000
14%
$2,199,000
$2,475,000
13%
$2,395,000
$2,660,000
11%
$2,250,000
$2,495,000
11%
$2,995,000
$3,300,000
10%
$1,449,000
$1,600,000
10%

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It’s not just paying more than the list price. The listing agents will test your mettle too.

Here’s a seller counter-offer on a million-dollar home with nine offers on it:

The house was built in the 1980s, and you expect the buyer to take it as-is without a home-inspection contingency? And you’re going to get 5% to 10% over list price, but you can’t throw in a home warranty?

There will be buyers who would have paid more money but who drop out when they see the extra demands.

Listing agents believe that this is how you get rid of the buyers who ‘aren’t serious’, but in reality it just limits the remaining buyer pool to the emotionally-charged-and-will-sign-anything buyers.  They are the ones that are less likely to close escrow.

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