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Over List, February

The market is heating up fast and early this year!  The majority of home buyers paid over the list price in February, and these were decisions mostly made in January:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

November: 48%

December: 48%

January: 49%

February: 60%

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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Even though the 2022 listings count for the first two months of the year is 33% BELOW the count in 2021, sales are only 16% under the average for the last five years:

NSDCC January + February Sales

2017: 174 + 172 = 346

2018: 149 + 162 = 311

2019: 150 + 174 = 324

2020: 182 + 184 = 366

2021: 187 + 224 = 411

2022: 140 + 156 = 296

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
156
$3,058,406
$3,104,854
$2,149,500
$2,386,500

The average sales price went up 7% MoM in January, and 9% in February.

The median sales price went up 4% MoM in January, and 7% in February.

THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE WENT UP 7% IN ONE MONTH!

This is the craziest real estate market ever – and the spring selling season is just getting started!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List, January

Even with the list prices reflecting massively-inflated values, nearly half of the homebuyers felt the need to pay over the list price lately:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

November: 48%

December: 48%

January: 49%

There were another 15% who paid full price in January, so almost two-thirds paid all the money. There were 16 listings that sold with zero days on market too.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Percentage Of Sales Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
64%
78%
71%
88%
50%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
37%
64%
64%
76%
82%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
61%
58%
56%
50%
67%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
36%
38%
46%
20%
33%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%
24%
7%
22%
13%
26%

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The January sales were a little soft, historically, but the inventory has been decimated:

NSDCC January Sales

2017: 174

2018: 149

2019: 150

2020: 182

2021: 187

2022: 140

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NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000

The average sales price went up 7% MoM.

The median sales price went up 4% MoM.

The local pricing flattened out last summer, only to be revived over the last three months.

It should be a crazy spring – probably the craziest ever!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List, December

Impressive momentum to wrap up the year, with almost half of the buyers feeling the need to pay over list:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

November: 48%

December: 48%

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Have the higher-end buyers figured it out that paying over list could be a ruse though?

Percentage Of Sales Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
64%
78%
71%
88%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
37%
64%
64%
76%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
61%
58%
56%
50%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
36%
38%
46%
20%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%
24%
7%
22%
13%

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The December sales were a little soft, historically, but the inventory has been decimated:

NSDCC December Sales

2017: 224

2018: 196

2019: 227

2020: 290

2021: 182

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NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500

The median list price dropped and the median sales price went up!

The median sales price is 9% higher than the median list price!

The average LP and SP were almost identical for the second month in a row.

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Over List, November

Momentum going into 2022 is strong, given that the Over List percentage has gone up the last two months:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

November: 48%

The higher-end market had some bounce-back too:

Percentage Of Sales Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
64%
78%
71%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
37%
64%
64%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
61%
58%
56%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
36%
38%
46%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%
24%
7%
22%

The November sales were down 35% from last year, but the red-hot market of late-2020 is to blame.  This year, the sales were more in line with previous Novembers:

NSDCC November Sales

2017: 217

2018: 199

2019: 212

2020: 306

2021: 199

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000

The median sales price went up 11% in one month, and is $101,000 higher than the median list price!

The median sales price is 19% higher than it was in February, which was ten months ago.

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Over List, October

The insanity is finding a comfortable range…..until next spring:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

October: 45%

A slight uptick in the overall percentage, but the high-end buyers aren’t going for this nonsense any more:

Percentage Of Sales Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
64%
78%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
37%
64%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
61%
58%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
36%
38%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%
24%
7%

October saw new highs in average list and sales prices, which would indicate strong action in the higher-end homes.  The medians have been fairly steady:

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500

The average sales price increased 30% YoY, and the median sales price is up 13% YoY, but that is also compared to the 382 sales last October – which was, and will always be, the most sales in any October.

As sales taper off over the next 2-3 months, it might cause a little more volatility in these pricing metrics.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List – September

Here is where the cooling-frenzy shows up.

The number of buyers who are willing to pay over list price is dropping:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

September: 41%

To have 41% of the sales close over list price would be remarkable….if it weren’t for the last six months!

Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
64%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
37%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
61%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
36%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%
24%

The average sales prices have been virtually identical for the last three months, and the median sales price is back up to where it was in May:

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500

Compared to last September, the average sales price was +25%, and the median sales price was +33%!

Sales should taper off the rest of the year, but not sure if pricing will follow!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List in August

The percentage of buyers who were willing to pay over list cooled a bit in August:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

August: 55%

There were 28% of the total sales that closed for $100,000+ over list price! (July was 33%)

The mix was remarkably similar to previous months:

Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
88%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
74%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
73%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
56%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%
19%

The average prices were down just slightly, but the medians went up:

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000

Compared to last August, the average sales price was +27%, and the median sales price was +37%!

In July, they were +31% and +30%.

Fewer sales, and higher prices. Sales should taper off the rest of the year, but not sure if pricing will follow!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Way Over List

San Francisco leads the 50 largest U.S. metros in the share of homes sold for 30% over their list price or higher at 7.4%. It’s followed by the hot market of Buffalo, NY, where 6.2% of homes sold for more than 30% over list, and Austin (5.3%). All shares in these markets are up substantially over the first quarter.

The markets with the most homes sold for half a million or more over asking in the second quarter are San Francisco (657), San Jose (283), Los Angeles (99), Seattle (88) and Miami (74).

https://www.zillow.com/research/share-of-homes-sold-way-over-list-doubles-29974/

Can we find the six that sold for $1,000,000 over list?  I went looking for that needle in a haystack, but couldn’t find any.  If you know of the properties that for more than a million dollars over list this year, let us know!  The 2021 numbers are staggering, given the pricing:

San Diego County First-Half Sales, All Property Types

Year
Total Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
Sales Over $3,000,000
2017
19,236
$521,000
22
150
2018
17,922
$554,000
14
156
2019
16,981
$569,000
20
159
2020
15,037
$593,000
14
155
2021
20,263
$702,000
9
485

Record pricing, and record sales at the same time – what a frenzy!

Over List in July

The percentage of buyers who were willing to pay over list reached another all-time high in July:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

July: 64%

There were 33% of the total sales that closed for $100,000+ over list price!

One out of three!

In July, it was the $1,500,000-$2,000,000 range that was red hot, with an incredible 82% paying over list:

Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
July
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
89%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
74%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
82%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
56%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%
26%

The average and median prices were slightly lower MoM, but the product mix is different every month.  Just having the average and median sales prices being higher than the list prices is remarkable enough:

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
July, 2020
351
$1,937,896
$1,863,623
$1,450,000
$1,423,350

Compared to last July, the average sales price was +31%, and the median sales price was +30%!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Over List, June

The percentage of buyers who were willing to pay over list reached another all-time high in June:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

June: 59%

There were 37% of the total sales that closed for $100,000+ over list price!

The action was really hot in the $2,000,000s – the other price ranges cooled off slightly:

Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range

Price Range
March
April
May
June
$0 – $1.0M
76%
79%
89%
88%
$1.0M – $1.5M
68%
78%
84%
75%
$1.5M – $2.0M
66%
66%
72%
66%
$2.0M – $3.0M
54%
32%
34%
66%
$3M+
16%
22%
22%
17%

After rising in six-figure amounts the previous month, it looks like pricing might be leveling off too:

NSDCC Average and Median Prices

Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500

We’ve been experiencing the hottest real estate market in the history of the world!

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