The average and median sales prices last month were similar to what they were in December, even though the same percentage of buyers paid over the list price.
It might make you think that this market is retreating quickly!
But look at the difference of the number of lower-end sales, and square footages:
The size of the houses weren’t that different, so what’s up?
Buyers aren’t bidding up the prices like they were before. Here’s an example of those right under the median sales price last month:
Instead of overbidding by hundreds of thousands of dollars, buyers in July mostly stayed in their shoes and only offered a little over the list price. Expect that trend to continue!
The need to pay over the list price has diminished a bit, but about a third of buyers who closed last month still felt like it was worth paying more than the sellers were asking.
Last month looked a lot like June, 2022! There were 24% fewer sales however, and that trend should continue through the rest of 2023:
There were 20% fewer listings YoY last month, so with virtually all of the current active listings holding out on price and very little new product to consider, the fate of the 2H23 market will be back to the buyers – how bad do you need to buy a house right now, versus waiting for Spring 2024?
The fascinating phenomenon of paying over the list price continued last month.
The practice is fairly unpredictable and doesn’t appear to be rooted in reason and logic, mostly due to the lack of uniformity in the presentations. If every property was tuned up nicely and priced attractively, there might be some trends to follow but they aren’t obvious currently.
There were more sales that closed for $100,000+ UNDER the list price, than over!
The scattered results will frustrate the binary folks who just want to know if prices are going up or down. The answer is YES!
The monthly sales might have peaked for the year though:
We are right back into frenzy mode with more than a quarter of last month’s sales closing over their list price. Was it required to win the home? Or has paying over the list price become more of a badge of honor for today’s buyers?
To complicate it further, look at the transitory nature of the market:
House sales closed for $100,000 or more OVER the list price: 20
House sales closed for $100,000 or more UNDER the list price: 51
The healthiest sign of all is that the number of sales jumped up nicely! The regular pricing metric has been on the rise too but that doesn’t mean much:
NSDCC Average and Median Prices by Month
Of the 385 NSDCC houses sold this year, NONE of them closed under $1,000,000.
I’m not going to get crazy-optimistic just because the over-list percentage more than doubled MoM, or because last month’s median sales price was 11% higher than it was a couple of months ago.
I’m just happy that the number of sales appears to have bottomed out.
Let’s say that it looks like our local market has stabilized.
So far, there have been 37 sales closed in March, which means we should hit 100+ easily.
Paying over the list price wasn’t a new thing created by the frenzy – there have always been over-list sales in the past. But getting down to 8% last month begged for a comparison to a previous January!
In January, 2019 there were 151 NSDCC sales, and 18 of them (12%) closed over the list price. Of the eighteen, seven were among the 37 sales that closed under $1,000,000 (which were a quarter of all sales).
Thirty of the 37 sales under $1,000,000 closed for less than full price?
Last month, we didn’t even have ANY sales that closed under a million!
With 92% of closings last month selling for list price or less, it must mean that today’s sellers are more willing to ‘give away’ their home. They have gained huge gobs of equity in the last couple of years, and only the seriously-motivated sellers would dare try to sell their house in a ‘bad’ market. If they need to give back a bigger portion to make the deal, they might do it.
Let’s predict the next few months.
Sellers will still try to get full retail, and based on the over-list stats from last month, 10% or less will get it. The rest will be priced to sit, and after 30+ days on the market, be prone to receiving lowball offers.
This is where the 2023 Spring Selling Season will be made. Will 80% to 90% of sellers take a low offer?
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NSDCC Average and Median Prices by Month
Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
158
$3,063,331
$3,108,907
$2,149,500
$2,386,500
Mar
207
$3,247,251
$3,337,348
$2,400,000
$2,625,000
Apr
227
$3,190,161
$3,251,604
$2,350,000
$2,550,000
May
215
$2,943,657
$3,032,977
$2,350,000
$2,500,000
Jun
190
$2,864,089
$2,872,690
$2,297,500
$2,350,000
Jul
155
$2,889,612
$2,832,080
$2,299,900
$2,300,000
Aug
164
$2,933,243
$2,830,855
$2,200,000
$2,150,000
Sep
135
$2,650,642
$2,560,314
$2,149,000
$2,040,000
Oct
124
$3,090,320
$2,971,211
$2,272,500
$2,212,500
Nov
115
$2,581,790
$2,459,974
$1,950,000
$1,875,000
Dec
100
$2,859,960
$2,675,549
$2,097,500
$1,892,500
Jan
96
$3,032,101
$2,897,135
$2,197,500
$2,075,000
In the months when the average and median sales prices increased, it didn’t mean your home’s value went up – it just means that the set of homes were a little bigger and nicer than other months.
The number of sales is the real indicator. Fewer and fewer homes are deserving of today’s pricing.
The number of December sales has been hanging right at 100 and ten closed above list, or 10%!
Percentage Of Sales Closed Above the List Price, by Price Range
If the over-list sales start to increase this spring and get above 20%, then the frenzy feelings are slipping back into the equation. Hopefully they will be accompanied by more than 100 sales, because if that’s all we have during the selling season, there should be real dogfights over the creampuffs.
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NSDCC Average and Median Prices by Month
Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
158
$3,063,331
$3,108,907
$2,149,500
$2,386,500
Mar
207
$3,247,251
$3,337,348
$2,400,000
$2,625,000
Apr
227
$3,190,161
$3,251,604
$2,350,000
$2,550,000
May
215
$2,943,657
$3,032,977
$2,350,000
$2,500,000
Jun
190
$2,864,089
$2,872,690
$2,297,500
$2,350,000
Jul
155
$2,889,612
$2,832,080
$2,299,900
$2,300,000
Aug
164
$2,933,243
$2,830,855
$2,200,000
$2,150,000
Sep
135
$2,650,642
$2,560,314
$2,149,000
$2,040,000
Oct
124
$3,090,320
$2,971,211
$2,272,500
$2,212,500
Nov
115
$2,581,790
$2,459,974
$1,950,000
$1,875,000
Dec
100
$2,859,960
$2,675,549
$2,097,500
$1,892,500
In the months when the average and median sales prices increased, it didn’t mean your home’s value went up – it just means that the set of homes were a little bigger and nicer than other months.
But if you want to make comparisons, then these latest averages and medians are similar to October, 2021.
Only 12% of the houses sold last month actually closed over their list price, which sounds normal.
There were 51 of the 115 of the sales (44%) that closed for $100,000+ BELOW their last list price.
The count of 51 broke down to 17 of 19 sales over $3,000,000, and 34 of 96 sales under $3,000,000 – where knocking off $100,000+ off the list price is fairly significant. Either realtors aren’t that great about their pricing, or they wander into lowball territory and get their head tore off.
The median days-on-market was 28 days, and the average was 41 days.
About half wandered into lowball territory, and about half sold for $100,000+ below their list price – there is a direct connection. People need to figure out how to sell the house in the first couple of weeks of being on the market, or face the same consequences in 2023.
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NSDCC Average and Median Prices by Month
Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
158
$3,063,331
$3,108,907
$2,149,500
$2,386,500
Mar
207
$3,247,251
$3,337,348
$2,400,000
$2,625,000
Apr
227
$3,190,161
$3,251,604
$2,350,000
$2,550,000
May
215
$2,943,657
$3,032,977
$2,350,000
$2,500,000
Jun
190
$2,864,089
$2,872,690
$2,297,500
$2,350,000
Jul
155
$2,889,612
$2,832,080
$2,299,900
$2,300,000
Aug
164
$2,933,243
$2,830,855
$2,200,000
$2,150,000
Sep
135
$2,650,642
$2,560,314
$2,149,000
$2,040,000
Oct
124
$3,090,320
$2,971,211
$2,272,500
$2,212,500
Nov
115
$2,581,790
$2,459,974
$1,950,000
$1,875,000
In October, when the average and median sales price spiked, it didn’t mean your home’s value went up – the homes sold that month had a median square footage that was 12% higher than in September. Similarly, the group of homes that sold in November had a median sf that was 8% smaller than in October.
But if you do want to make a big deal of these sales prices, they are similar to those in July, 2021.
