One-Story, Newer, Price

Michele and I cruise around twice a week looking at the new listings.

I love it because I get to pontificate about the business and give her guidance like a good broker should.

She asks many great questions, and today was no exception. She had read the blog post from 2009 where I said agents should know the hot buys. She asked about the definition of a hot buy.

Today there is an easy formula to identify a hot buy:

If the number of Zillow Saves is 5% or more of the Zillow Views, it is a hot buy.

If the Zillow Saves are 7% to 10% of the Zillow Views, grab your checkbook – because it is sizzling hot.

Of course, now that I’ve divulged my tip, a few agents will manipulate the counts so if the listing agent is a known scumbag, then don’t trust their counts. You know who the scumbags are, don’t you?

We came up with another idea too.

If the house is one-story, newer, and the price is attractive, it’s a hot buy. But then we went one better.

If the house has two of the three (one-story, newer, attractive price), it’s probably a hot buy anyway.

If the list price is attractive, that is enough to power any sale, but if the price is attractive and the house is either one-story or newer it will probably be a hot buy. In 2024, a newer one-story house doesn’t even need to have an attractive price – there are so few of them that they can ask anything they want.

We saw three houses for sale today that will demonstrate my theorem. All are one-story homes that have been improved and should appeal to the maximum number of buyers – especially the seniors who have the money and will only consider a renovated one-story in a good location with some view:

For those who desire a full ocean view from both the family room AND the primary suite and can live with 1,620sf built in 1986 on a smaller lot in Carmel Valley, you can’t do much better than this for $2M:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/13384-pantera-road-san-diego-ca-92130/1443561425642687169

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If you want a fully-renovated one-story house just east of the freeway in Solana Beach that overlooks the golf course, then this would be worth a look:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/332-santa-helena-solana-beach-ca-92075/1451069101991133209

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Want to step it up and buy a brand-new 4,194sf one-story house with ADU in a prime Del Mar location with ocean view – and price is no object? Then this is for you, priced at $16,995,000:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/355-bellaire-street-del-mar-ca-92014/1447350924812111265

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Why would these three list for sale now instead of waiting until next year? Well, I can’t help you with that. It is the most lucrative time ever for buyers to pause during the absolute peak wait-and-see period of all-time.

So if 1-2 of these go pending by the end of the year, it will show that the premium properties are always hot – and I wouldn’t be surprised if they all sell.

$3,950,000 Beach Hut

Our new listing across from Tide Beach Park in Solana Beach has fully-approved plans to build a spectacular Mark-Morris-designed California Modern Contemporary – or just enjoy your beach cottage!

Mark designed the La Jolla house we sold last summer at 365 Marine Street – this plan has similar qualities! Open 12-3pm this Sunday, March 5th.

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/506-pacific-avenue-solana-beach-ca-92075/1256725407327863041

(Think the market is dead? I received two inquiries in the first ten minutes!)

The Problems With Comps

The critical point in this video is when the second seller dropped 7% to make the sale after just three weeks on the market……even though that was 10% under the last sale that backed to power lines.

This is what can happen. Did they have bills to pay? Did the agent press them to take it?  We don’t know, yet we consider every comparable sale equally and base our opinions on price alone.

The seller of the $2,225,000 sale had purchased it in 2013 for $1,109,000 and his mortgage amount was under $300,000. What’s a hundred thousand in either direction to him?

The previous high sale of this model was $2,100,000 in December, 2021.

The high sale before that was $1,750,000 in 2020.

The high sale before that was $1,320,000 in 2019.

Are we binary simpletons? Will the next seller and listing agent consider all of these variables? Or just go with $2,200,000 as the latest sale/current value and hope for the best? Or check the zestimate?? 😆

The next sale could go 10% to 20% in either direction, depending on the agent.

Beach Bungalow

This just hit the market and will be a good one to watch.

It’s the least-expensive house for sale west of I-5 in Solana Beach, and it’s in a quiet little stretch only a block from the beach access and walking distance to everything in downtown SB! Asking $2,395,000 – thanks to the Compass listing agent Wendy!

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/361-north-sierra-avenue-solana-beach-ca-92075/1065492023233617769

Reminder that the speed limit on Coast Highway 101 is only 35 MPH:

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