It’s that time of the year – the 2017 forecasts are starting to roll out!
Zillow has been conservative about our local markets. For the most part, the actual appreciation of the Zillow Home Value Index has been higher than their forecasts over the last two years.
Their local forecasts for 2017 are all lower than their 2016 guesses, and what they are predicting could also be described as ‘Flatsville’. If their local forecasts of +0.9% to +2.2% come true, it would mean that several sellers would end up selling for less than they could have gotten in 2016.
Are we ready for that yet?
Local ZHVI-Appreciation Forecasts
The Zillow data changes slightly, depending on where you look on their website, and whether you use town names or zip codes. Here is the LINK to find others.
1953 Willy’s CJ3B. It had the original flathead four-banger engine that could crawl over anything. We changed that out for a Chevy 283V8. Rolled it two different times, no one killed. We built a big cake around it and cruised the last Fullerton homecoming parade like in Animal House (they cancelled the football program the next year). It was also the ride I was driving when I met my wife – I borrowed my dad’s car to take her to Bobs.
1958 Cadillac Convertible – with the big fins! One of the few decent things done by the Padres when they gave Trevor this one as they retired his number 51. The 1959 version is great too.
1969 Chevrolet Camaro SS Convertible – Indy Pace Car. A staple on favorite-lists everywhere and mine made a little more special when John Doe and Exene drove up in one when they played at Fullerton.
Most national forecasts are predicting a 3% to 4% appreciation rate for 2016, which has to be a safe bet. If it comes in anywhere from -2% to +8%, you can say that you were close.
Zillow has enough algorithms that they are willing to make predictions for each local area. They have conflicting numbers, depending on where you look on their website – these are from the Home Values section:
You can see that Zillow was less optimistic last year too. Most were predicting that mortgage rates would be in the mid-4s by now, so the lower rates in 2015 helped fuel higher-than-expected prices. Could rates stay right where they are? Maybe, but both Zillow and I think the euphoria will die down next year:
Zillow Price-Appreciation Predictions
For some reason, Zillow is also labeling each market from Warm to Very Cold. The labels don’t seem to correspond to the predictions, so I don’t know their intent – are they just trying to tell you to put on a sweater?
How will buyers feel about getting worked over for that last 2% to 3% when they see they are in a ‘Very Cold’ market?
Here I describe some of the details of how the sale went down on Glenmont in Solana Beach, which listed for $1,499,000 on January 8th. Not every agent operates this way – many will just grab a cash offer and go for the easy close. But I prefer to go all out:
"Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community... more "
by Ann Romanello
"Jim educated us, helped us find the perfect house, and then negotiated us a great deal. I would hate to be sitting across the negotiating table from ... more "
"Jim is thorough and will be brutally honest about the homes he shows you. He provides great service and follows through until the very end and even ... more "
"I highly recommend Jim as a buyer’s agent. Working with Jim, we closed this week on a San Diego condo. Jim prepared a list of comparable sales to ... more "