Median Sales Prices by Area

It’s been ten years since the bottom of the market.

Let’s see how the annual median-sales-prices of detached-homes have changed:

Town or Area
Zip Code
2009
2014
2019
10yr % chg
Cardiff
92007
$785,000
$1,180,000
$1,408,000
+79%
NW Carlsbad
92008
$587,000
$740,000
$999,500
+70%
SE Carlsbad
92009
$690,000
$825,000
$1,085,000
+56%
NE Carlsbad
92010
$528,750
$650,000
$830,000
+57%
SW Carlsbad
92011
$696,500
$850,000
$1,113,050
+60%
Carmel Valley
92130
$855,000
$1,090,000
$1,345,000
+57%
Del Mar
92014
$1,350,000
$1,625,000
$2,000,000
+48%
Encinitas
92024
$720,000
$955,000
$1,409,000
+96%
La Jolla
92037
$1,450,000
$1,640,000
$2,100,000
+45%
RSF
92067
$2,325,000
$2,476,596
$2,550,000
+10%
Solana Beach
92075
$1,075,000
$1,326,000
$1,462,500
+36%
NSDCC MSP
All Above
$815,000
$1,013,000
$1,325,000
+63%
NSDCC Sales
All Above
2,204
2,813
2,801
+27%

Takeaways?

  1. Everywhere’s a million!
  2. Most areas had their median sales price rise more in the second half (2014-2019).
  3. The number of sales is very impressive, given the run-up in pricing (we had 2,781 sales in 2018).
  4. Pricing in the Ranch has averaged +1% per year, which proves we can live with flat pricing for 5-10 years.
  5. Encinitas is less like Carlsbad and more like its ritzy neighbors to the south. Maybe it’s the culture?

https://encinitasca.gov/Home/City-Calendar/ctl/ViewEvent/mid/774/OccuranceId/3336

Two Eye-Popping Sales

When this house on Rios sold for $8,250,000 in March, 2019, it was the highest non-oceanfront sale in the history of Solana Beach.

The homeowner put it on the open market for $9,750,000 in September, and it went pending in 36 days.  It closed this week for $8,595,000 and the buyer paid the commissions, which makes it look like an effective $9,000,000 sale – which is a 9% return in eight months!  Both sales were all-cash.

Here’s a look at a sale at the top of the hill in Carlsbad that sold for $450,000 over list price:

No Mistakes

Remember before the last crash when buyers and sellers were far more cavalier about their real estate decisions?  Why was that?  Because if they needed to move again, there were always a reasonably-priced house down the street or around the corner for sale.

But things sure have changed.

Selling/buying/moving is no longer just something you do casually.  Because of the difficulty, you are probably only going to move if, and when, you decide to make a permanent lifestyle change.

Look at the differences just since this blog has been around:

NSDCC January through September:

Year #Detached-Home Listings Percentage Over $2M Percentage Under $800,000
2005
4,487
19%
28%
2019
3,960
33%
5%

The noteworthy:

There Are Fewer Homes For Sale – In particular, there are fewer high-quality homes for sale that would make it worth it for existing homeowners to move up or down.  In spite of having loads of equity, trying to find a home better than your current home is a major obstacle.

Home Prices Are Higher Than Ever – If you can find a house that suits your needs, the price will be higher than ever.  You have to pay more, qualify for more, and be willing to eat higher recurring costs like property taxes too.

Cost of Moving is High – Gone are the days when you could throw everything you own into a U-haul and move in a day.  Commissions, closing costs, packers & movers, home upgrades, and new furniture will cost you $50,000 to $100,000 or more in any house you buy around the NSDCC.

Competition is Stiff – As a result of the three items above, buyers are very picky and holding out for the highest quality.  Staying on the edge of your seat 24 hours a day can take its toil!

It’s a Market For The Affluent – With only 5% of the NSDCC houses priced under $800,000, it means home buying is only for those who have real horsepower – and regular folks are priced out, unfortunately.

The stakes are high, and making any mistakes now will be very costly.  The worst part is that home prices are moderating (except in Solana Beach), and without an increase in their equity position, those who need to sell shortly after purchasing could incur a substantial hit.

We are in the No-Mistake zone. Get good help!

P.S. The Solana Beach house on Rios that set the all-time non-oceanfront price record in March at $8,250,000 was relisted for $9,750,000…..and it went pending today!

Solana Open House

The best open house this weekend will be down at the sand in Solana Beach, where the weather will be in the mid-to-high 70s. Check out our Old-Spanish bungalow, go surfing at Tabletops, and take a long stroll on the beach!

506 Pacific Ave., Solana Beach

Open 12-3pm

$2,995,000

I’ll be there for the full three hours today!

https://www.compass.com/listing/506-pacific-avenue-solana-beach-ca-92075/359498520290704689/

Broker’s Open House in SB

Just to have 30+ brokers come to your new listing must mean something – the price has to be close. But the listing agent has to be able to sell it, which is the missing ingredient for all of the disrupters.

Old-time agents gather their evidence and then go all out to convince buyers and agents the property is worth it.  Look around – we are selling the whole lifestyle:

How did you like Donna being on duty for the first hour? Wasn’t it great to meet wifey?

Solana Beach Valuation

506 Pacific Ave., Solana Beach

Open House 12-3pm Today!

$2,995,000

Solana Beach suffers the same fate as many well-established high-end areas.

There aren’t many comps to begin with, and it’s ripe for off-market sales.

Three of the last four on the street were off-market sales – were they low?

I’m hanging my hat on the cheapest one, 424 Pacific. The story poles are already up, so the $2,555,000 was really just land value – and that corner is much busier than at the subject property.

But let’s also consider that Solana Beach has been remarkably under-valued for years, and we are just now starting to see what buyers are willing to pay.  It wasn’t long ago that the non-oceanfront homes struggled to get more than $4,000,000.

Now look:

Three recent sales over $6,000,000, with one of them back on the market for nearly $10 million!

My $2,995,000 looks like a deal!

Come on by and check it out today, 12-3pm!

Link to Zillow listing

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