Here’s a snapshot of how fast the local market has changed. It went from a relatively-modest suburban area where 3/4s of the houses sold for less than a million dollars in 2003……to a very affluent market!
NSDCC Detached-Homes Annual Sales
True, the inflation rate since 2003 was 70% and a dollar doesn’t buy what it used to back then. But the median sales price went up from $730,000 in 2003 to $2,344,000 this month – an increase of 320%!
What I marvel at is the carrying costs commitment. Taxes 1.1% on $2.4m is more than $2000 per month. Insurance surely exceeds $400/mo. That 20% down $500,000 could safely earn $2000/mo. Interest, call it 6% on the $1.9m mortgage is $7400/mo. Face it, SALT means no measurable deduction. So, $2000 + $2000 + $400 + $7400 = $11,800/mo. That’s the burn and lost opportunity costs only. If you can afford that why not rent a modest place $4000/mo and invest the other $5800/mo for a few years and pay cash or suck it up for a few more years and retire with enough to live any lifestyle short of the Hamptons.
Anything to make the little lady happy!
The people buying in north county have already done all that Giving Cat. The cash is already in the bank and house is just another bucket of cash to use. A lot of the mortgages are only because they have a better use for the cash, and a lot of the others are all cash.
People buying aren’t pushing boundaries to get into a home here. They’ve already won the game.
Becoming Aspen, Monte Carlo, etc. – no one is buying there at the expense of using their last dollars to squeeze into something.
Starting at $1k/sf is still relatively low on the global scale. Aspen ($3k/sf) has outperformed San Diego north county over last 20 years. And many would argue it’s nicer here.
Does becoming “Aspen, Monte Carlo, etc” mean that the productive economy (computer/biotech/etc) is a goner since their workers can no longer afford to live in the area?
Biotech is not a goner, but manufacturing in this area is. R&D will remain. White collar salaries have been increasing, that’s the only thing offsetting inflation. But those white collar workers had better already bought a house, mortgages have gone from $3k/month to $10k/month over the past 7 years.