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Photo taken from our seats

In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings happen in January.  It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!

Here is some historical perspective (below). I included the stats from 2009, which was the last time the sky was falling and nobody wanted to sell their house. I would gladly take those numbers now!

For those who were thinking it’s so bad that January’s count might be single digits, there has already been seven new listings this year – though four of them were refreshed listings from last year.

Number of Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad

Year
Previous November
Previous December
January
1st Qtr
1st Half
2009
340
259
458
1,422
2,873
2019
292
234
418
1,280
2,716
2020
257
177
354
1,085
2,309
2021
240
181
289
986
2,171
2022
166
127
223
730
1,707
2023
141
82
7
?
?

Leave your guess in the comment section of the number of January listings, and whoever is closest to the actual count on February 15th will receive four tickets to a Padres game in 2023!  This isn’t a fancy way for me to get your contact information and keep calling you until you buy or die. You don’t even have to leave your contact information – just check back on February 15th.

Reasons why January’s inventory will be LOWER than expected:

  1. Sellers will wait until the market gets ‘better’.
  2. Sellers will wait until somebody else goes first.
  3. Sellers are distracted by a big playoff run by the Chargers.

Reasons why January’s inventory will be HIGHER than expected:

  1. Panic selling – sellers who want to get out early in the season.
  2. More boomers are getting older every year.
  3. Realtors refreshing their listings more often.

There is no evidence that there will be a surge of hundreds of listings.  Though there are more active listings today than there were at this time last year (265 vs 152), it only means the 4Q22 selling success rate was lower than in the frenzy years.

The guesses from last year’s contest:

142 The other Bob
181 Eddie89
201 Daniel Nicolas
210 Drew
215 Joe
222 Majeed
230 Lifeisradincbad (he was a winner in 2021)
237 Curtis Kaiser
245 doughboy
250 Deckard Mehdy
259 Susie
260 Derek (the other winner in 2021)
270 Skip
278 Haile
286 Matt
290 Esteban del Rio
294 Tom
295 Rob Dawg
300 BWell_SoCal
312 big T
325 Mortgage Guy
373 Rob

The winner will be the closest guess, so leave some room around your number to heighten your chances.

Last January’s count was 30% lower than it was in 2021, to which I made this comment:

The 2022 inventory count was 2,832 (so far).

What it’s like watching a game from these seats? Here are 15 seconds:

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