Knowing the number of NSDCC listings in January will give us a feel for how hot the market might be for the rest of the year. If there is a big surge this month (more than +20% over last January’s count), then the market could get sluggish in a hurry. If there is only a modest increase – or maybe just the same as last year – then it’s going to be a fairly hot spring selling season.
There have been 26 new listings so far this month.
We will take guesses until Friday. Here are those received so far:
211 – Eddie89
213 – Shadash
246 – Anne M
267 – Surfrider
273 – Susie
280 – doughboy
303 – Tom
307 – Jun
317 – CB Mark
318 – Nick
328 – Majeed
337 – natalie
353 – Derek
355 – Skip
365 – Leo
421 – Giving Cat
Leave your guess – or revise your old guess – in the comment section!
In mid-February (to account for the late reporters), the guesser with the closest number will receive four tickets to a Padres game!
Need some evidence to make a smart guess? There is more research data on the last post:
To give you an idea where our seats are, I took the photo above at last year’s wild-card playoff game vs. the Braves. The guy with the buzz-cut hairdo sitting next to the dugout is the owner of the Braves. Those seats are reserved for the visiting team’s owners, so you might meet some glitterati when you go! Autographs are certainly in play too, depending on the willingness of the players. Go early!
Virtually everyone is reluctant to predict the future of the real estate market. Even most realtors will throw their hands up and declare, “Who knows?”.
But around here, one fact has been clear and it tells us what we need to know about the rest of the year. The number of NSDCC listings in January ends up being 8% to 9% of the total for the year:
NSDCC Listings and Sales Data (La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, Cardiff, Encinitas, and Carlsbad)
It means that by mid-February we will be able to predict how many listings there will be in 2025, and thus, give us the likely direction of the market for the rest of the year.
I’ve been saying for three months that there is going to be a surge of listings, and it could be 15% to 20% more than there were in 2024. We’ve been doing the contest for Padres tickets to help put a spotlight on the January listings, and it has never been more interesting to see how many will hit the market this year!
Tomorrow, I’ll do a summary of the guesses so far and give everyone the rest of the week to enter or revise their guess so come back Monday morning.
The chart above gives more data for the analytical folks to craft their guess.
My Thoughts:
The last frenzy before Covid was in 2013. Pricing was stuck in a fairly tight range for the previous five years, but listings dropped and sales took off in 2012 and pricing followed in 2013 with a little more inventory. The variables weren’t all the same as today, but you may want to apply a similar effect from the animal spirits to today’s market. Or maybe not?
With another 9% increase in the median sales price and cost-per-sf in 2024, it shows that there really hasn’t been any limits on pricing. Will 2025 be the year that it changes? If so, will it be caused by another surge in listings? Or is there enough money floating around that more listings will cause more sales at higher prices like it did in 2024? It could go either way.
What about the political climate? Pro-Trump supporters are elated and will gladly join the buyer pool. Anti-Trump people are fearing the worst, but like we saw during the pandemic, fear is a fantastic motivator and it causes people to want to hunker down…at any price.
I had more people attend my open house yesterday on La Costa Avenue than I’ve had at the previous seven OHs. Most were just getting started, and the basic need for housing will keep them looking around. Will they buy? We’ll see.
We round-tripped four of our 17 listings in 2024 – and three of those were since the commission debacle on August 17th. Successfully working with buyers had already been a major challenge for agents, and now it’s worse. The affluent buyers will probably always want professional help, but will there be many, if any agents left who are willing to devote months of effort just to have their commission rate dangled in front of the seller for their approval?
Will the market survive it all? Yes, because there isn’t anything that price won’t fix!
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings come to market in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
In past Januarys, the guesses spanned a reasonable range and usually the winner was somewhere in the middle of the pack. These were the guesses from last January:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January 2024 Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
196 Derek
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223Joe
The final count was 255 listings in January, 2024, which was 14% over the highest guess!
After January, the inventory continued to rise, and there were around +15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year, than there were in 2023.
I mentioned last January:
My theory is that 10% more inventory is easily absorbed and really won’t be that noticeable. It’s when the inventory is growing at 20% or more that buyers may wonder what’s going on – and be tempted to pause, and/or get more picky, if that is possible.
The way it’s going, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot, or hotter than it was last year!
The +15% was about the ideal increase in inventory because sales were higher too. Will 2025 be the year that we find out how much is too much?
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
Leave your guess any time, and officially this contest will begin the first week of the year.
The number of January listings has blown by everyone’s expectations, and is now up to 229, which is 12% higher than in January, 2023 – and the count isn’t done yet.
All we know for sure is that more sellers wanted to get an early start on moving this year.
If that tendency holds up over the next few months and the YoY inventory grows by 10% or more each month, the market could get more frenzied, because the buyers are responding too. The number of pendings is 14% higher than they were last year at this time!
My theory is that 10% more inventory is easily absorbed and really won’t be that noticeable. It’s when the inventory is growing at 20% or more that buyers may wonder what’s going on – and be tempted to pause, and/or get more picky, if that is possible.
Congratulations to Joe – the winner of the four Padres tickets!
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
196 Derek
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223Joe
The way it’s going, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot, or hotter than it was last year!
After a disappointing number of sales last month (87, the lowest monthly count ever), January is poised to reach 100+ sales. There are 128 houses in escrow today, and 39 of those were marked ‘pending’ prior to January 1st so probably 20+ of those stand a good chance of closing by the end of the month:
NSDCC Monthly Sales
Although the severe drop in sales recently can be attributed to higher mortgage rates, higher prices, etc., you can’t sell what’s not for sale:
NSDCC January Listings
With the number of listings up to 183 this month, we should reach the 205 listings we had last January. Will the last few people on our list still have a fighting chance, or should we hand the Padres tickets to Joe?
Here are the contestants:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
196 Derek
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223 Joe
With slightly more inventory, similar pricing and rates, and pent-up everything, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot as it was last year. This week, I had buyers survive an 8-offer bidding war and win by submitting the now-customary $100,000+ over the list price, and there have been crazier sales already:
The NSDCC listings inputted between January 1-15 are up 11% YoY:
2023: 100
2024: 111
Take last January’s total of 205 listings + 11% = 228 for the projected winning score, which would blow by everyone. How close the monthly total gets to 228 will tell us if listings are surging or calming as the spring selling season opens. Here are the guesses of the number of January listings – winner getsPadres tickets:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings
There were 50 new listings in the first seven days of last year.
This year, there have been 43 new listings in the first week, but there are late-reporters and those agents who input a new listing later in the month but use the contract date from weeks earlier. It’s not a smart move due to a glitch in the MLS which uses the contract date, not the actual days on the market, when other agents are searching for listings from the last seven days, etc. causing them to miss new listings.
Based on both reasons, the final total for the first seven days will probably be 60-ish, which means we’re off to a good start for those of us who are hoping for additional inventory!
Here are the guesses for the total number of January, 2024 listings submitted so far on the contest for Padres tickets (last January’s total was 205). You are welcome to add or revise your guess in the comment section up to January 15th:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223 Joe
The market has fired up quickly – there were lots of people at open houses over the weekend and a new listing that interested my buyers already had three offers on it since hitting the market last week. Interestingly, I went by three hot new listings that were NOT doing open house. Get Good Help!
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings happen in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
Here is some historical perspective (below). I included the stats from 2009, which was the last time the sky was falling and nobody wanted to sell their house. I would gladly take those numbers now!
Leave your guess in the comment section of the number of January listings, and whoever is closest to the actual count on February 29th will receive four tickets to a Padres game in 2024!
This isn’t a fancy way for me to get your contact information and keep calling you until you buy or die. You don’t even have to leave your contact information – just check back on February 29th.
The summary of 2023 guesses:
16 Noodle
89 Momento
99 Tom
104 BWell_SoCal
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
117 Susie
119 Beachside
120 Curtis
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
142 MC
146 Derek
152 Drew
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy 186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
203 Lauren Stickelman
213 Shadash
252 Aunt Nancy
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
333 Sherman Messing
149 Median
Last year, the contest ended on February 15th, and Rob Dawg’s guess of 186 was the closest to the 182 count that day. But since mid-February, another twenty-two January listings were added – go figure! Lauren S. – you were the actual winner last year so you’ll get four tickets for this season. This year, let’s extend the contest to the last day of February before picking the winner!
The lack of choices help cause frenzy conditions. When a top-quality listing hits the market, buyers feel like this might be their only chance this month, or this year, to buy such a good match to their needs – and then the lack of transparency makes them go nutty. Comparing the new inventory this month will help us predict the rest of the selling season.
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
There were 182 NSDCC listings in January, as of today – which means we have a clear winner, even if a few more listings get added by late-reporters.
Congratulations Rob Dawg!
The season starts on March 30th, and May looks like a great month to attend a game. What might be the two best giveaways of the season (vs. the Reds and the Royals) happen that month, plus the Dodgers make their first visit back to Petco Park.
Dawg’s favorite team, the Red Sox, also return in May!
The summary of guesses, with some additions from the FB page:
16 Noodle
89 Momento
99 Tom
104 BWell_SoCal
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
117 Susie
119 Beachside
120 Curtis
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
142 MC
146 Derek
152 Drew
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy 186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
203 Lauren Stickelman
213 Shadash
252 Aunt Nancy
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
333 Sherman Messing
149 Median
This was the first time that the actual count of January listings landed in the upper third of the guesses. But don’t get giddy about the inventory just yet – here’s how it compares:
NSDCC January Listings:
2018: 426
2019: 418
2020: 354
2021: 289
2022: 223
2023: 182
The lack of choices is what causes hyper-frenzy conditions – it causes buyers to freak out. When a top-quality listing hits the market, buyers feel like this might be their only chance this month, or this year, to buy such a good match to their needs – and then the lack of transparency makes them go nuts.
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings happen in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
Here is some historical perspective (below). I included the stats from 2009, which was the last time the sky was falling and nobody wanted to sell their house. I would gladly take those numbers now!
For those who were thinking it’s so bad that January’s count might be single digits, there has already been seven new listings this year – though four of them were refreshed listings from last year.
Number of Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad
Year
Previous November
Previous December
January
1st Qtr
1st Half
2009
340
259
458
1,422
2,873
2019
292
234
418
1,280
2,716
2020
257
177
354
1,085
2,309
2021
240
181
289
986
2,171
2022
166
127
223
730
1,707
2023
141
82
7
?
?
Leave your guess in the comment section of the number of January listings, and whoever is closest to the actual count on February 15th will receive four tickets to a Padres game in 2023! This isn’t a fancy way for me to get your contact information and keep calling you until you buy or die. You don’t even have to leave your contact information – just check back on February 15th.
Reasons why January’s inventory will be LOWER than expected:
Sellers will wait until the market gets ‘better’.
Sellers will wait until somebody else goes first.
Sellers are distracted by a big playoff run by the Chargers.
Reasons why January’s inventory will be HIGHER than expected:
Panic selling – sellers who want to get out early in the season.
More boomers are getting older every year.
Realtors refreshing their listings more often.
There is no evidence that there will be a surge of hundreds of listings. Though there are more active listings today than there were at this time last year (265 vs 152), it only means the 4Q22 selling success rate was lower than in the frenzy years.
The guesses from last year’s contest:
142 The other Bob
181 Eddie89
201 Daniel Nicolas
210 Drew
215 Joe 222Majeed
230 Lifeisradincbad (he was a winner in 2021)
237 Curtis Kaiser
245 doughboy
250 Deckard Mehdy
259 Susie
260 Derek (the other winner in 2021)
270 Skip
278 Haile
286 Matt
290 Esteban del Rio
294 Tom
295 Rob Dawg
300 BWell_SoCal
312 big T
325 Mortgage Guy
373 Rob
The winner will be the closest guess, so leave some room around your number to heighten your chances.
Last January’s count was 30% lower than it was in 2021, to which I made this comment:
The 2022 inventory count was 2,832 (so far).
What it’s like watching a game from these seats? Here are 15 seconds:
