The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
In the recent years prior to the pandemic, the actives/pendings in Rancho Santa Fe ran at a 10:1 pace. Nobody is in a hurry there, they don’t have to sell, and they’re not going to give it away. Those days appear to be coming back.
The median list price of those RSF actives is $5,995,000 – is anyone going to feel sorry for them? Probably not. Does it reflect what is going on in the rest of the area? Not really – the other areas are mostly around a 2:1 ratio (except La Jolla) which has been our standard for a healthy market and pretty good, all considered.
In 2020, we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7, 2020.
Let’s break down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give you a closer look at the neighborhood stats. We’re going to have more active listings simply because the the list prices were all based on red-hot frenzy conditions (comps + 5% or more), and we’re past the red-hot days.
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
|Rancho Santa Fe
|Rancho Santa Fe
The selling season started early in 2022, and was cooking by the end of February. Let’s group the different areas based on how their pendings are holding up.
Carlsbad SW – A few houses finally went up for sale, and buyers responded.
Rancho Santa Fe – The active listings aren’t growing like in the other high-end areas of Del Mar and La Jolla, and the number of pendings are very impressive. It was once normal when the Ranch had a 10:1 ratio between actives and pendings!
Everyone else, except……
Carmel Valley – which has always had more pendings than actives over the last two years – and sometimes twice as many pendings! While having 50 actives and 18 pendings anywhere else would be a win, in the CV it feels like a meltdown.
Here they are:
(I tried to sort those by price order, but all they have is sort by date added)
This nonsense about every buyer paying way over list price has to stop. If the SP:LP was around 100% we’d be elated, yet it was 111%, 109%, and 109% in the February-April stretch.
So far in June, the SP:LP is 107% for the 104 detached-home sales between Carlsbad and La Jolla!
We can also track the average market times too. Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing – it’s early so nothing too startling yet:
The hottest of the red-hot was in 2020, when we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on 9/7/2020. Today we have 178 pendings.
This company surveys new-home and resale agents every month, and this report confirms more of what we’ve been experiencing:
- A few more listings (but NSDCC listings are dropping off now).
- More listings not selling/buyers getting pickier.
- Buyer traffic is steady, and better than expected.
The Home Listings Index dropped from 70 to 37.5, which means the number of listings increased, which is bad for the new-home agents. But for resale agents, it’s good!
This year, we are ahead of both of the previous years in total sales, in spite of having 14% fewer listings – and prices being 30% to 40% higher!
NSDCC Listings & Sales, Jan 1 to Aug 31
||# of Listings Between Jan 1 – Aug 31
||# of Sales
Prices probably need to go a bit higher to slow this thing down!
The NSDCC Weekly Pendings are tracking similar to 2019, so there should still be some gas in the tank:
Did you get concerned about the pending index falling another 10% last week?
The U.S. housing market is suffering from its lowest supply in history, and that is taking an increasingly hard toll on sales.
Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year.
“The demand for a home purchase is widespread, multiple offers are prevalent, and days-on-market are swift,” said the Realtor’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun. “But contracts are not clicking due to record-low inventory.”
The pendings between La Jolla and Carlsbad are doing just fine. In spite of the total number of NSDCC homes for sale being fewer than usual, people are still buying at a torrid pace:
Our market was helped by having more homes for sale.
New NSDCC Listings in the First Quarter:
After the first two months of this year, the total number of NSDCC new listings was 26% behind 2019.
But we had a big March, and the number of new listings in 1Q21 is only 15% behind those in 2019.
Previously we experienced a healthy market when actives outnumbered pendings 2:1. Then as the market heated up, we got used to the 1:1 ratio. Now we have areas where the ratio is more than 1:2!
NSDCC Detached-Home Active and Pending Listings
|Town or Area
What can buyers do?
Going inland doesn’t help – the 92127 and 92131 are hotter than ever.
Just go up in price – La Jolla is nice this time of year!
We will re-visit these numbers in the coming months.
This morning we have more homes in escrow than we have for sale!
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings
||# of Listings
||Median List Price
Once upon a time I was discussing the actives/pendings relationship with local agent Peter B. He agreed that a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings was a sign of a healthy market. If 2:1 was healthy, what is 1:1?
One thing that’s happening is that the action is rising into the upper price ranges. Today we have 94 homes in escrow that are priced over $3,000,000, which I doubt we’ve ever had before.
If we don’t see a surge of more listings, the pendings could extend its lead in the coming days/weeks!
We are getting close to a remarkable event – having more pendings than actives.
Here’s the current scorecard – 359 Actives, and 338 Pendings!
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
|$1.0M – $1.5M
|$1.5M – $2.0M
WE HAVE MORE PENDINGS THAN ACTIVES IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER-$3,000,000!
When you look at the general data, the 25% dip year-over-year of January listings doesn’t look so bad – especially on a graph. Heck, we’re in the middle of a pandemic!
But look how it is playing out:
NSDCC Detached-Home New Listings
||New Listings in January
||# of Those Pend/Sold
||Pend/Sold Median DOM
The lower-end is smoking hot where virtually all listings have found a buyer (88%), and for the higher-end to have most of the January listings go pending already is astonishing!
This has to be the best performing market of all-time!
The pendings count has been mirroring the actives pretty closely since mid-October, with the best example during election week when they moved about the same amount in opposite directions.
With fewer listings and more sales, the failure rate this year has been lower than ever. Historically we’ve had around 40% of listings NOT sell, but this year it’s closer to 30%:
2018: 2,814/4,864 = 0.58
2019: 2,838/4,773 = 0.59
2020: 3,106/4,480 = 0.69 (+17% yoy)
Though all prices ranges have benefited, the action has been heaviest on the lower-end.
We have 87 NSDCC homes for sale UNDER $2,000,000 today, and 338 OVER! The Median is $3,692,500!
Get Good Help!