fbpx

Inventory Watch

Did you get concerned about the pending index falling another 10% last week?

The U.S. housing market is suffering from its lowest supply in history, and that is taking an increasingly hard toll on sales.

Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year.

“The demand for a home purchase is widespread, multiple offers are prevalent, and days-on-market are swift,” said the Realtor’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun. “But contracts are not clicking due to record-low inventory.”

The pendings between La Jolla and Carlsbad are doing just fine. In spite of the total number of NSDCC homes for sale being fewer than usual, people are still buying at a torrid pace:

Our market was helped by having more homes for sale.

New NSDCC Listings in the First Quarter:

2019: 1,278

2020: 922

2021: 1,081

After the first two months of this year, the total number of NSDCC new listings was 26% behind 2019.

But we had a big March, and the number of new listings in 1Q21 is only 15% behind those in 2019.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(more…)

NSDCC Actives & Pendings

Previously we experienced a healthy market when actives outnumbered pendings 2:1. Then as the market heated up, we got used to the 1:1 ratio. Now we have areas where the ratio is more than 1:2!

NSDCC Detached-Home Active and Pending Listings

Town or Area
Zip Code
Actives
Pendings
Cardiff
92007
10
14
NW Carlsbad
92008
15
24
SE Carlsbad
92009
20
48
NE Carlsbad
92010
4
11
SW Carlsbad
92011
4
19
Carmel Valley
92130
25
38
Del Mar
92014
32
25
Encinitas
92024
36
48
La Jolla
92037
95
45
RSF
67+91
87
50
Solana Beach
92075
8
9
NSDCC
All Above
336
331
West RB
92127
24
63
Scripps Ranch
92131
6
25

What can buyers do?

Going inland doesn’t help – the 92127 and 92131 are hotter than ever.

Just go up in price – La Jolla is nice this time of year!

We will re-visit these numbers in the coming months.

NSDCC Pendings Overtake Actives

This morning we have more homes in escrow than we have for sale!

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings

Listing Status
# of Listings
Median List Price
Active
352
$3,950,000
Pending
353
$1,925,000

Once upon a time I was discussing the actives/pendings relationship with local agent Peter B.  He agreed that a 2:1 ratio of actives to pendings was a sign of a healthy market.  If 2:1 was healthy, what is 1:1?

One thing that’s happening is that the action is rising into the upper price ranges. Today we have 94 homes in escrow that are priced over $3,000,000, which I doubt we’ve ever had before.

If we don’t see a surge of more listings, the pendings could extend its lead in the coming days/weeks!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Inventory Watch

We are getting close to a remarkable event – having more pendings than actives.

Here’s the current scorecard – 359 Actives, and 338 Pendings!

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Avg $$/sf
Pending Listings
Avg $$/sf
0-$1.0M
6
$424/sf
33
$640/sf
$1.0M – $1.5M
22
$677/sf
70
$605/sf
$1.5M – $2.0M
45
$686/sf
87
$621/sf
$2.0-$3.0M
65
$871/sf
68
$759/sf
$3.0M+
224
$1,404/sf
87
$1,020/sf

WE HAVE MORE PENDINGS THAN ACTIVES IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER-$3,000,000!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(more…)

NSDCC January Performance

When you look at the general data, the 25% dip year-over-year of January listings doesn’t look so bad – especially on a graph.  Heck, we’re in the middle of a pandemic!

But look how it is playing out:

NSDCC Detached-Home New Listings

Price Range New Listings in January # of Those Pend/Sold Pend/Sold Median DOM
Under $1.5M
85
75
5
Over $1.5M
189
98
6

The lower-end is smoking hot where virtually all listings have found a buyer (88%), and for the higher-end to have most of the January listings go pending already is astonishing!

This has to be the best performing market of all-time!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Inventory Watch

The pendings count has been mirroring the actives pretty closely since mid-October, with the best example during election week when they moved about the same amount in opposite directions.

With fewer listings and more sales, the failure rate this year has been lower than ever. Historically we’ve had around 40% of listings NOT sell, but this year it’s closer to 30%:

Sales/Listings

2018: 2,814/4,864 = 0.58

2019: 2,838/4,773 = 0.59

2020: 3,106/4,480 = 0.69 (+17% yoy)

Though all prices ranges have benefited, the action has been heaviest on the lower-end.

We have 87 NSDCC homes for sale UNDER $2,000,000 today, and 338 OVER!  The Median is $3,692,500!

Get Good Help!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

(more…)

Inventory Watch – Trickle Up!

In previous years, the action is winding down by mid-August.

Not this year!

We’ve seen more pendings than actives in the lower price ranges. This week it happened for the first time in the $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Pending Listings
Avg LP/sf
$0-$1.0M
28
$533/sf
67
$506/sf
$1.0M-$1.5M
113
$608/sf
158
$518/sf
$1.5M-$2.0M
123
$714/sf
126
$630/sf
$2.0M-$3.0M
137
$823/sf
87
$729/sf

Let’s note the differences.

Last year at this time, we had 199 actives and 79 pendings between $1,500,000 – $2,000,000.

On June 1st, we had 162 actives and 76 pendings.

Now it’s 123 vs. 126!

(more…)

NSDCC Actives & Pendings

We saw those fancy graphs yesterday that compared the San Diego region to others nearby, and it appeared that the markets have slowed slightly. But let’s isolate on the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad area.

The chart above is from May 15th – here are the same categories today:

No slowdown here, especially in the $1.0M to $2.0M range where we have 26 more pendings today than we had 2.5 weeks ago.  How about the additional 12 pendings in the $3.0M+ range?

NSDCC Since April 1st

They send out this survey twice each month – on the 15th and 21st – so these agent comments above were based on their market observations around then. Hopefully they have gotten back to work by now:

Town
Zip Code
New Listings Since April 1st
New Pendings Since April 1st
Cardiff
92007
18
3
Cbad NW
92008
25
15
Cbad SE
92009
63
36
Cbad NE
92010
18
15
Carlsbad SW
92011
47
20
Carmel Vly
92130
79
50
Del Mar
92014
28
10
Encinitas
92024
71
38
La Jolla
92037
60
16
RSF
92067
38
15
Solana Bch
92075
13
2
NSDCC
Totals
460
220

We have had 220 new pendings since April 1st, which is remarkable! The 220 is today’s number, of which 47 have already closed. Others that went pending and fell out of escrow are not included.

Pin It on Pinterest