by Jim the Realtor | Nov 3, 2024 | 2025, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Spring Kick |
The current market conditions are fascinating.
There were 141 NSDCC listings that went pending in October, and 44 of them have already closed escrow! It leaves 133 listings in the pending category so the closed sales in November and December probably won’t set any records, but if there were 100 closings each month then I’d be impressed.
How about the closed sales? Smoking hot, compared to last year:
NSDCC September and October Sales and Pricing, 2023 vs. 2024
It all points to the 2025 Selling Season being robust, to say the least. It is going to start in January, and there might even be sellers who want to get a jump on it and list their home in December!
Here’s one more category (rich people fleeing) to add to my reasons why 2025 is going to bust loose:
A growing number of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the country in the run-up to Tuesday’s election, with many fearing political and social unrest regardless of who wins, according to immigration attorneys.
Attorneys and advisors to family offices and high-net-worth families said they’re seeing record demand from clients looking for second passports or long-term residencies abroad. While talk of moving overseas after an election is common, wealth advisors said this time many of the wealthy are already taking action.
“We’ve never seen demand like we see now,” said Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, which advises the wealthy on international migration.
Volek said that for the first time, wealthy Americans are far and away the company’s largest client base, accounting for 20% of its business, or more than any other nationality. He said the number of Americans making plans to move abroad is up at least 30% over last year.
David Lesperance, managing partner of Lesperance and Associates, the international tax and immigration firm, said the number of Americans hiring him for possible moves overseas has roughly tripled over last year.
A survey by Arton Capital, which advises the wealthy on immigration programs, found that 53% of American millionaires say they’re more likely to leave the U.S. after the election, no matter who wins. Younger millionaires were the most likely to leave, with 64% of millionaires between 18 and 29 saying they were “very interested” in seeking so-called golden visas through a residency-by-investment program overseas.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/wealthy-americans-plans-leaving-united-states.html
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 26, 2024 | 2024, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check |
Remember a few months ago when both Biden and the Padres were flailing and I said that the last half of the year would be so full of distractions that we’d be lucky to see 100 sales per month?
How ya feeling now?
Last month was spectacular and it looks like this month’s sales will beat the 154 from last September! There were 46 sales closed in the last week of September, 2023, and currently there are 60 pendings that went into escrow prior to 9/1/2024 so another 46 sales this month looks very doable.
The 123 sales above are today’s count.
Add 46 to it and we could reach 169 sales – and the pricing metrics are strong too!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 23, 2024 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings
Statistics are quirky – there are always things that happen that defy explanation. Look at the uptick in inventory in today’s reading, and note that the same thing happened last year!
The number of pending listings has been riding above last year’s pendings count, which is interesting.
Having more actives could trigger a wait-and-see feeling in buyers, but there should be some tolerance because the inventory has been so much lower than ever before. It appears that having 24% more active listings still falls into the tolerable category because the number of pendings is higher today:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings, Last Week Of September
The 475 actives sounds like a boatload compared to the last three years, but instead of being scared off, buyers are just ignoring the 174 that have been on the market for more than 60 days.
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by Jim the Realtor | Sep 9, 2024 | Inventory, NSDCC Pendings |
The lowest mortgage rates since early 2023 might keep buyers in the hunt a little longer than usual!
Will they accept the current pricing, or will they insist on grinding lower?
We can get a feel by examining those listings that have been marked pending this month.
The median days-on-market has been running around 14 days for the last few months, and for the 145 NSDCC closed sales in the last 30 days it was 17 days.
There have been 31 NSDCC listings marked pending this month, and their median DOM is 30 days.
There were 12 that went pending in 14 days or less, and six that took more than 60 days.
Did the sellers dump on price to cause a sale? Or were they patient and just waited their turn? Yes, mostly!
Here are those that took 15 days or longer to go pending in September:
It doesn’t look like ANY of those were dying to give it away! Only one lowered more than 5%.
Could they just be lucky? Yes, but luck is not a strategy.
We will come back in a month or two and see their eventual prices at closing!
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by Jim the Realtor | Jan 24, 2023 | 2023, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, NSDCC Pendings |
It’s impressive to see so many high-enders go into escrow this quickly – these are the NSDCC homes listed over $4,000,000 than have gone pending since the first of the year:
Not mentioned above is the listing that hit the MLS on January 3rd, went pending on the fifth, and closed on the 17th – and went back on the market the next day for $620,000 more:
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/4532-rancho-del-mar-trail-san-diego-ca-92130/1227253413756497393
It sold for $5,380,000 in 2019, $5,959,000 in 2014, and $5,650,000 in 2013.
Here are the historical counts:
| Year |
NSDCC Annual Sales Over $4,000,000 |
Annual Sales Over $10,000,000 |
| 2018 |
125 |
15 |
| 2019 |
126 |
15 |
| 2020 |
235 |
31 |
| 2021 |
356 |
32 |
| 2022 |
275 |
24 |
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 20, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy Monitor, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats. We have considered a 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings to be a healthy market. When there were more pendings than actives, the frenzy was out of control, and when the number of actives reaches a 3:1 ratio of higher, you know that the market is going the other way.
Lately, the ratio has benefitted from cancellations, and today’s A/P ratio is close to the June level:
The number of choices today is anemic, and not that much different than the frenzy levels. The combined totals of actives and pendings (underlined in purple above):
Feb: 384
Mar: 386
Jan: 386
Fewer are selling now because of listing exhaustion.
Of the 105 new listings in January:
Number of those on the market in 4Q22, and refreshed as a new listing this month: 44
Number of January listings that were purchased in 2020: 13
Number of January listings that were purchased in 2021 or later: 19
You can say that the inventory of exciting new offerings is extremely tight, especially for those buyers who have been looking since 2020 – you’ve previously seen 72% of the ‘new’ listings.
In 2020, we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 19, 2023 | North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim |
The chart above shows that there were 61 new NSDCC pendings through January 16th last year – when mortgage rates were in the low-3s and we were in full frenzy mode.
Through the 18th, there are 62 new pendings this month!
We are on about the same pace as last year? Who woulda thunk it?
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 17, 2023 | 2023, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim
Yesterday, we saw that there has been a flurry of new pendings this month.
Could it be a result of brave buyers who have lowballed the sellers? We won’t know until they close escrow. But there is a direct correlation between how long a home has been on the market, and the discount expected by the buyers.
Of the current pendings, 49% didn’t lower their list price – and the median days on market for the whole group is 17 days. If the price is attractive, buyers will step up in the first two weeks and pay it, or close.
But once a NSDCC home is on the market for more than a month, and it can be a slippery slope – mostly because the showings dry up. Unless the sellers are willing to pour (more) money into upgrades, then the next best solution is to lower the price – but once you start lowering, it invites the lowballers. Yes, there were a handful that still went pending without reducing, but those were mostly the high-enders:
You see realtors advertising today to sellers that they need to price their home ‘right’. It’s a bit insulting, if you ask me, because it means they want you to price it at their price, not yours.
An attractive price is more than just money – it sums up the whole package (location, floor plan, condition, ease of showing, and listing agent competence) and causes the buyers to say, “Hey, that’s a nice deal!”
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 16, 2023 | NSDCC Pendings, Why You Should List With Jim |
I suggested that buyers were merely vacationing from the housing hunt over last six months of the year, and some at the open houses this weekend confirmed that it was the case for them.
Last week the median days-on-market for the new pendings in January was 55 days, and it was this week too! We had as many new pendings in the last week as we had in the first two weeks of January combined!
It appears that buyers didn’t mind the prices so much – they just weren’t looking.
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 16, 2023 | Inventory, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings
A fantastic start to the new year!
In the last week, there were 36 new listings and 34 new pendings! In the previous week, we also had 36 new listings but only 15 new pendings.
The total pendings count increased +30% in a week!
In the Under-$3,000,000 market, there are 119 actives and 86 pendings, which looks remarkably healthy.
We are about halfway through January, and there have been 80 new listings so far between La Jolla and Carlsbad. It means our contest should wind up around 160-170 listings.
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