NSDCC Since April 1st

They send out this survey twice each month – on the 15th and 21st – so these agent comments above were based on their market observations around then. Hopefully they have gotten back to work by now:

Town
Zip Code
New Listings Since April 1st
New Pendings Since April 1st
Cardiff
92007
18
3
Cbad NW
92008
25
15
Cbad SE
92009
63
36
Cbad NE
92010
18
15
Carlsbad SW
92011
47
20
Carmel Vly
92130
79
50
Del Mar
92014
28
10
Encinitas
92024
71
38
La Jolla
92037
60
16
RSF
92067
38
15
Solana Bch
92075
13
2
NSDCC
Totals
460
220

We have had 220 new pendings since April 1st, which is remarkable! The 220 is today’s number, of which 47 have already closed. Others that went pending and fell out of escrow are not included.

Pending Sales By County

Yesterday we saw that our NSDCC sales for April should be down about 40% year-over-year, and the graph above shows about the same for average daily pending sales in San Diego County.

With pendings down 40%, and deals closing harder, it probably means that the YoY decline in May sales will be 50% or more.

We were going to have to live with fewer sales at some point – and it’s here!

CAR Market Update April 22 2020

NSDCC January Listings and Sales

Our January sales count of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad was impressive, and comparable to the good old days!

NSDCC January Sales & Listings

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. Cost-per-sf
# of New Jan. Listings
2013
185
$845,000
$379/sf
410
2014
182
$1,072,500
$501/sf
413
2015
166
$1,221,500
$511/sf
405
2016
171
$1,092,000
$553/sf
471
2017
175
$1,180,000
$518/sf
394
2018
151
$1,320,000
$573/sf
426
2019
152
$1,300,000
$532/sf
419
2020
183
$1,430,000
$607/sf
339

In spite of all-time record pricing, the number of January listings really dried up, compared to previous Januarys – and 40% of last month’s listings are already pending or sold. How you feel about the inventory shortage depends somewhat on your price range too – here is the recent history:

NSDCC Number of January Listings by Price Range

Year
# Under-$1M
$1M – $2M
$2M – $3M
Over $3M
2013
186
123
50
56
2014
159
150
56
57
2015
138
162
50
62
2016
128
205
85
70
2017
101
163
71
71
2018
69
206
86
69
2019
74
201
66
85
2020
45
157
74
73

For those hoping to buy a house priced under a million, the dwindling number of listings is daunting. But the inventory over $1,000,000 has been relatively stable – no big surge there.

Still Bubblin’

I noted on Instagram today that a couple of new listings in Carlsbad went pending before they got to broker preview today.  While the sales and pricing statistics may look flat, sellers shouldn’t give up on selling when rates are still in the 3s.

These are the listings from the last seven days that already found a buyer – these aren’t giveaways:

The big bidding war in Leucadia also closed…..at a whopping 30% over list price – in this market!

Wait…at your peril!

NSDCC Monthly Closed Sales, 2019

The NSDCC closed sales got off to a hot start in 2019!

But by March 4th, pendings had stalled and were 19% under last year’s total.  Now that stall pattern is playing out in the March closings too:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Changes:

Year
2018
2019
% chg
January
151
151
-0-
February
164
174
+6%
March
259
203
-22%

But the recent flurry of activity has us catching up.  The pendings count today is only six behind the count on April 2nd of last year (340 vs 346).

The published March sales counts are going to be disappointing, even if we have a bunch of late-reporters. But the April/May sales should be healthier!

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

It’s March! How are we doing?

We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of active-to-pending listings to be a sign of a healthy market. Though pricing is much higher than in the recent past, we’re under 3.0 is all but the highest-end areas:

Here are the Actives/Pendings stats for each area:

Area
Zip
ACTIVES
PENDINGS
ACT/PEND
SOLDS Last 30 days
Cardiff
92007
21
11
1.9
3
Carlsbad NW
92008
42
15
2.8
12
Carlsbad SE
92009
72
38
1.9
29
Carlsbad NE
92010
25
11
2.3
12
Carlsbad SW
92011
41
27
1.5
18
Del Mar
92014
78
18
4.3
9
Encinitas
92024
74
43
1.7
23
La Jolla
92037
171
32
5.3
18
RSF
67+91
179
23
7.8
8
Solana Bch
92075
25
6
4.2
5
Carmel Vly
92130
80
37
2.2
31
All Above
All
808
261
3.1
168

The first half of 2018 was very active, so just to stay close would be a win.

Sales in January caught up with last year’s count, and the year-over-year February sales are stronger than expected too – we had MORE sales in 2019! (updated later on March 1st)

NSDCC Closed Sales:

Year
January
February
Median SP YTD
Avg $$/sf YTD
2018
150
164
$1,294,005
$573/sf
2019
150
165
$1,275,000
$540/sf

Pricing is soft, but close enough for now.

Inventory Watch

Thanks Rob Dawg for the gift!

Our contest for Padres tickets got more exciting this week due to Manny Mania!

NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 20:

2018: 681

2019: 644 (-5%)

The two-month total last year was 783, so we’re on a pace to hit 741.  Doughboy guessed 740, but it came in after the guessing period ended.  If he wins, I’ll give tickets to him and the next closest guesser.

Others who guessed under 800:

755 – Neil

777 – Bb

785 – Recordsclerk

799 – TominLaCosta

We finally hit a statistical oddity that we’ve been flirting with for months.  The average list-price-per-sf of the Under-$1,000,000 category caught up with the next category, $1.0M to $1.5M.

Both are at $494/sf today!

There was another quirk also. The new listings AND the new pendings both dropped off over the past week, which is unusual for this time of year.  It must have been due to the rain?

The total number of pendings today is 18% behind last year.

Looking ahead to next month? It starts Friday!  We had 446 new listings in March of last year, which was 25% more than in February, 2018.

(more…)

NSDCC 2019 Sales

Yesterday, the C.A.R. released the statewide January results, with more speculation from our so-called leaders:

 California home sales fall to lowest level in more than 10 years

– Existing, single-family home sales totaled 357,730 in January on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 3.9 percent from December and down 12.6 percent from January 2018.

– January’s statewide median home price was $538,690, down 3.4 percent from December and up 2.1 percent from January 2018.

– Statewide active listings rose for the 10th straight month, increasing 27 percent from the previous year.

– The statewide Unsold Inventory Index was 4.6 months in January, up from 3.5 months in December.

“California continued to move toward a more balanced market as we see buyers having greater negotiating power and sellers making concessions to get their homes sold as inventory grows,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “While interest rates have dropped down to the lowest point in 10 months, potential buyers are putting their homeownership plans on hold as they wait out further price adjustments.”

The statewide median home price declined to $538,690 in January. The January statewide median price was down 3.4 percent from $557,600 in December and up 2.1 percent from a revised $527,780 in January 2018.

“While we expected the federal government shutdown during most of January to temporarily interrupt closings because of a delay in loan approvals and income verifications, the impact on January’s home sales was minimal,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The decline in sales was more indicative of demand side issues and was broad and across all price categories and regions of the state. Moreover, growing inventory over the past few months has not translated into more sales.”

Link to press release  

Obviously, they haven’t done a survey of the North San Diego County’s coastal region!  Between La Jolla and Carlsbad, we had about the same number of January sales last month as we did in January, 2018, so we’re faring much better than the -12.6% statewide.  We are further into February so let’s pick up the sales from the first half, and break it down by price category too:

NSDCC Detached-Home Closed Sales, Jan 1 to Feb. 15th

Price Range
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
PEND
ACT
Under $1M
129
96
107
93
71
65
76
64
$1M to $1.5M
62
71
82
88
77
91
87
163
$1.5 to $2.0M
29
33
24
41
36
34
50
126
Over $2.0M
46
50
43
41
51
52
60
453
Totals
266
250
256
263
235
242
273
806

The only two signs of trouble:

  1. The Under-$1M market is disappearing.
  2. If you want to buy a house priced over $2,000,000, you sure have plenty to consider!  Those sellers are happy to wait it out too, so no rush.

Other than those, we have remarkable balance, and it doesn’t look like ‘potential buyers are putting their homeownership plans on hold’ around here!

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