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Inventory Watch – Trickle Up!

In previous years, the action is winding down by mid-August.

Not this year!

We’ve seen more pendings than actives in the lower price ranges. This week it happened for the first time in the $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Pending Listings
Avg LP/sf
$0-$1.0M
28
$533/sf
67
$506/sf
$1.0M-$1.5M
113
$608/sf
158
$518/sf
$1.5M-$2.0M
123
$714/sf
126
$630/sf
$2.0M-$3.0M
137
$823/sf
87
$729/sf

Let’s note the differences.

Last year at this time, we had 199 actives and 79 pendings between $1,500,000 – $2,000,000.

On June 1st, we had 162 actives and 76 pendings.

Now it’s 123 vs. 126!

(more…)

NSDCC Actives & Pendings

We saw those fancy graphs yesterday that compared the San Diego region to others nearby, and it appeared that the markets have slowed slightly. But let’s isolate on the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad area.

The chart above is from May 15th – here are the same categories today:

No slowdown here, especially in the $1.0M to $2.0M range where we have 26 more pendings today than we had 2.5 weeks ago.  How about the additional 12 pendings in the $3.0M+ range?

NSDCC Since April 1st

They send out this survey twice each month – on the 15th and 21st – so these agent comments above were based on their market observations around then. Hopefully they have gotten back to work by now:

Town
Zip Code
New Listings Since April 1st
New Pendings Since April 1st
Cardiff
92007
18
3
Cbad NW
92008
25
15
Cbad SE
92009
63
36
Cbad NE
92010
18
15
Carlsbad SW
92011
47
20
Carmel Vly
92130
79
50
Del Mar
92014
28
10
Encinitas
92024
71
38
La Jolla
92037
60
16
RSF
92067
38
15
Solana Bch
92075
13
2
NSDCC
Totals
460
220

We have had 220 new pendings since April 1st, which is remarkable! The 220 is today’s number, of which 47 have already closed. Others that went pending and fell out of escrow are not included.

Pending Sales By County

Yesterday we saw that our NSDCC sales for April should be down about 40% year-over-year, and the graph above shows about the same for average daily pending sales in San Diego County.

With pendings down 40%, and deals closing harder, it probably means that the YoY decline in May sales will be 50% or more.

We were going to have to live with fewer sales at some point – and it’s here!

CAR Market Update April 22 2020

NSDCC January Listings and Sales

Our January sales count of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad was impressive, and comparable to the good old days!

NSDCC January Sales & Listings

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. Cost-per-sf
# of New Jan. Listings
2013
185
$845,000
$379/sf
410
2014
182
$1,072,500
$501/sf
413
2015
166
$1,221,500
$511/sf
405
2016
171
$1,092,000
$553/sf
471
2017
175
$1,180,000
$518/sf
394
2018
151
$1,320,000
$573/sf
426
2019
152
$1,300,000
$532/sf
419
2020
183
$1,430,000
$607/sf
339

In spite of all-time record pricing, the number of January listings really dried up, compared to previous Januarys – and 40% of last month’s listings are already pending or sold. How you feel about the inventory shortage depends somewhat on your price range too – here is the recent history:

NSDCC Number of January Listings by Price Range

Year
# Under-$1M
$1M – $2M
$2M – $3M
Over $3M
2013
186
123
50
56
2014
159
150
56
57
2015
138
162
50
62
2016
128
205
85
70
2017
101
163
71
71
2018
69
206
86
69
2019
74
201
66
85
2020
45
157
74
73

For those hoping to buy a house priced under a million, the dwindling number of listings is daunting. But the inventory over $1,000,000 has been relatively stable – no big surge there.

Still Bubblin’

I noted on Instagram today that a couple of new listings in Carlsbad went pending before they got to broker preview today.  While the sales and pricing statistics may look flat, sellers shouldn’t give up on selling when rates are still in the 3s.

These are the listings from the last seven days that already found a buyer – these aren’t giveaways:

The big bidding war in Leucadia also closed…..at a whopping 30% over list price – in this market!

Wait…at your peril!

NSDCC Monthly Closed Sales, 2019

The NSDCC closed sales got off to a hot start in 2019!

But by March 4th, pendings had stalled and were 19% under last year’s total.  Now that stall pattern is playing out in the March closings too:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Changes:

Year
2018
2019
% chg
January
151
151
-0-
February
164
174
+6%
March
259
203
-22%

But the recent flurry of activity has us catching up.  The pendings count today is only six behind the count on April 2nd of last year (340 vs 346).

The published March sales counts are going to be disappointing, even if we have a bunch of late-reporters. But the April/May sales should be healthier!

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

It’s March! How are we doing?

We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of active-to-pending listings to be a sign of a healthy market. Though pricing is much higher than in the recent past, we’re under 3.0 is all but the highest-end areas:

Here are the Actives/Pendings stats for each area:

Area
Zip
ACTIVES
PENDINGS
ACT/PEND
SOLDS Last 30 days
Cardiff
92007
21
11
1.9
3
Carlsbad NW
92008
42
15
2.8
12
Carlsbad SE
92009
72
38
1.9
29
Carlsbad NE
92010
25
11
2.3
12
Carlsbad SW
92011
41
27
1.5
18
Del Mar
92014
78
18
4.3
9
Encinitas
92024
74
43
1.7
23
La Jolla
92037
171
32
5.3
18
RSF
67+91
179
23
7.8
8
Solana Bch
92075
25
6
4.2
5
Carmel Vly
92130
80
37
2.2
31
All Above
All
808
261
3.1
168

The first half of 2018 was very active, so just to stay close would be a win.

Sales in January caught up with last year’s count, and the year-over-year February sales are stronger than expected too – we had MORE sales in 2019! (updated later on March 1st)

NSDCC Closed Sales:

Year
January
February
Median SP YTD
Avg $$/sf YTD
2018
150
164
$1,294,005
$573/sf
2019
150
165
$1,275,000
$540/sf

Pricing is soft, but close enough for now.

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