by Jim the Realtor | Aug 17, 2020 | Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings |
In previous years, the action is winding down by mid-August.
Not this year!
We’ve seen more pendings than actives in the lower price ranges. This week it happened for the first time in the $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range:
NSDCC Actives and Pendings
| Price Range |
Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Pending Listings |
Avg LP/sf |
| $0-$1.0M |
28 |
$533/sf |
67 |
$506/sf |
| $1.0M-$1.5M |
113 |
$608/sf |
158 |
$518/sf |
| $1.5M-$2.0M |
123 |
$714/sf |
126 |
$630/sf |
| $2.0M-$3.0M |
137 |
$823/sf |
87 |
$729/sf |
Let’s note the differences.
Last year at this time, we had 199 actives and 79 pendings between $1,500,000 – $2,000,000.
On June 1st, we had 162 actives and 76 pendings.
Now it’s 123 vs. 126!
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 2, 2020 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings |
We saw those fancy graphs yesterday that compared the San Diego region to others nearby, and it appeared that the markets have slowed slightly. But let’s isolate on the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad area.
The chart above is from May 15th – here are the same categories today:
No slowdown here, especially in the $1.0M to $2.0M range where we have 26 more pendings today than we had 2.5 weeks ago. How about the additional 12 pendings in the $3.0M+ range?
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 1, 2020 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Spring Kick |
THE TOTAL NUMBER OF NSDCC PENDINGS WENT UP 25% IN THE LAST WEEK!
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | May 14, 2020 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Psycho-babble, Realtor Training, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Virus |
They send out this survey twice each month – on the 15th and 21st – so these agent comments above were based on their market observations around then. Hopefully they have gotten back to work by now:
| Town |
Zip Code |
New Listings Since April 1st |
New Pendings Since April 1st |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
18 |
3 |
| Cbad NW |
92008 |
25 |
15 |
| Cbad SE |
92009 |
63 |
36 |
| Cbad NE |
92010 |
18 |
15 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
47 |
20 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
79 |
50 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
28 |
10 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
71 |
38 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
60 |
16 |
| RSF |
92067 |
38 |
15 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
13 |
2 |
| NSDCC |
Totals |
460 |
220 |
We have had 220 new pendings since April 1st, which is remarkable! The 220 is today’s number, of which 47 have already closed. Others that went pending and fell out of escrow are not included.
by Jim the Realtor | May 1, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings, Virus |
Yesterday we saw that our NSDCC sales for April should be down about 40% year-over-year, and the graph above shows about the same for average daily pending sales in San Diego County.
With pendings down 40%, and deals closing harder, it probably means that the YoY decline in May sales will be 50% or more.
We were going to have to live with fewer sales at some point – and it’s here!
CAR Market Update April 22 2020
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 21, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings |
This looks like just another Friday’s worth of activity!
We have 29 new pendings since Monday, so we’ll be a bit short of the typical 40-60 this week.
The C.A.R. issued a directive today, and this should shut down regular operations:
https://www.carcovidupdates.org/stay-at-home-guidelines
Unless we get creative!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 18, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check |
Our January sales count of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad was impressive, and comparable to the good old days!
NSDCC January Sales & Listings
| Year |
# of Sales |
Median SP |
Avg. Cost-per-sf |
# of New Jan. Listings |
| 2013 |
185 |
$845,000 |
$379/sf |
410 |
| 2014 |
182 |
$1,072,500 |
$501/sf |
413 |
| 2015 |
166 |
$1,221,500 |
$511/sf |
405 |
| 2016 |
171 |
$1,092,000 |
$553/sf |
471 |
| 2017 |
175 |
$1,180,000 |
$518/sf |
394 |
| 2018 |
151 |
$1,320,000 |
$573/sf |
426 |
| 2019 |
152 |
$1,300,000 |
$532/sf |
419 |
| 2020 |
183 |
$1,430,000 |
$607/sf |
339 |
In spite of all-time record pricing, the number of January listings really dried up, compared to previous Januarys – and 40% of last month’s listings are already pending or sold. How you feel about the inventory shortage depends somewhat on your price range too – here is the recent history:
NSDCC Number of January Listings by Price Range
| Year |
# Under-$1M |
$1M – $2M |
$2M – $3M |
Over $3M |
| 2013 |
186 |
123 |
50 |
56 |
| 2014 |
159 |
150 |
56 |
57 |
| 2015 |
138 |
162 |
50 |
62 |
| 2016 |
128 |
205 |
85 |
70 |
| 2017 |
101 |
163 |
71 |
71 |
| 2018 |
69 |
206 |
86 |
69 |
| 2019 |
74 |
201 |
66 |
85 |
| 2020 |
45 |
157 |
74 |
73 |
For those hoping to buy a house priced under a million, the dwindling number of listings is daunting. But the inventory over $1,000,000 has been relatively stable – no big surge there.
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 25, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Market Surge, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check |
I noted on Instagram today that a couple of new listings in Carlsbad went pending before they got to broker preview today. While the sales and pricing statistics may look flat, sellers shouldn’t give up on selling when rates are still in the 3s.
These are the listings from the last seven days that already found a buyer – these aren’t giveaways:
The big bidding war in Leucadia also closed…..at a whopping 30% over list price – in this market!
Wait…at your peril!
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 2, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check |
The NSDCC closed sales got off to a hot start in 2019!
But by March 4th, pendings had stalled and were 19% under last year’s total. Now that stall pattern is playing out in the March closings too:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Changes:
| Year |
2018 |
2019 |
% chg |
| January |
151 |
151 |
-0- |
| February |
164 |
174 |
+6% |
| March |
259 |
203 |
-22% |
But the recent flurry of activity has us catching up. The pendings count today is only six behind the count on April 2nd of last year (340 vs 346).
The published March sales counts are going to be disappointing, even if we have a bunch of late-reporters. But the April/May sales should be healthier!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 1, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick |
It’s March! How are we doing?
We’ve considered a 2:1 ratio of active-to-pending listings to be a sign of a healthy market. Though pricing is much higher than in the recent past, we’re under 3.0 is all but the highest-end areas:
Here are the Actives/Pendings stats for each area:
| Area |
Zip |
ACTIVES |
PENDINGS |
ACT/PEND |
SOLDS Last 30 days |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
21 |
11 |
1.9 |
3 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
42 |
15 |
2.8 |
12 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
72 |
38 |
1.9 |
29 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
25 |
11 |
2.3 |
12 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
41 |
27 |
1.5 |
18 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
78 |
18 |
4.3 |
9 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
74 |
43 |
1.7 |
23 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
171 |
32 |
5.3 |
18 |
| RSF |
67+91 |
179 |
23 |
7.8 |
8 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
25 |
6 |
4.2 |
5 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
80 |
37 |
2.2 |
31 |
| All Above |
All |
808 |
261 |
3.1 |
168 |
The first half of 2018 was very active, so just to stay close would be a win.
Sales in January caught up with last year’s count, and the year-over-year February sales are stronger than expected too – we had MORE sales in 2019! (updated later on March 1st)
NSDCC Closed Sales:
| Year |
January |
February |
Median SP YTD |
Avg $$/sf YTD |
| 2018 |
150 |
164 |
$1,294,005 |
$573/sf |
| 2019 |
150 |
165 |
$1,275,000 |
$540/sf |
Pricing is soft, but close enough for now.
