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I was going to ignore one more forecast by a financial services company (what do they know about selling homes?), but this is from the squid, plus Derek mentioned it in the comment section.

None of these forecasts provide any evidence or reasons for their conclusions. They are just guessing, apparently, and merely searching for more eyeballs.

They are probably transfixed on the median sales price, one of the worst tools available.

San Diego County Detached and Attached Homes, Median Sales Price

April: $871,000

December: $757,250

Diff: -13%

There you go – the county’s median sales price has dropped 13% so far.

Do you see that much in the market?

I’ll give you a better example:

NSDCC Detached-Homes, Median Sales Price

March: $2,625,000

December: $1,895,000

Diff: -28%

Do you see houses between La Jolla and Carlsbad selling for 28% less than they did in March? Me neither. NSDCC sales dropped in half (207 vs 101), and the homes that are selling are smaller (average square footage is -13%) and more inferior which explains why the median sales price should be dropping. But nobody mentions the additional variables.

We are being dumbed down by the squid, and others.

Sellers should just wait it out.

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