NSDCC Actives/Pendings

Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97

Considering that we have record-high pricing in most areas, it is phenomenal to see so many pendings – and so few actives!

Actives Median Price = $2,350,000

Pendings Median Price = $1,299,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000!

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area.  If you remove La Jolla and RSF, the A/P = 432/336, or 1.29 to 1!

Area
Zip Code
June
Aug
Dec
Act/Pend Today
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
15/15 = 1.0
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
40/34 = 1.2
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
73/74 = 1.0
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
23/25 = 0.9
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
26/24 = 1.1
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
63/19 = 3.3
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
87/55 = 1.6
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
172/46 = 3.7
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
207/40 = 5.2
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
19/13 = 1.5
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
86/77 = 1.1
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
842/427 = 2.0

WOW!

Failed Auction?

The no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway today was postponed until April 25th.

Why would you postpone for 5 days?

There has to be buyers. This company has been very successful in selling seven and $8-figure homes throughout the world, and they have grown exponentially. The auction process is a big hit, and it is the best solution for selling homes.

George guessed that it could be a failed auction before I saw it get postponed on the website.  He’s looking very astute now….or is George an insider? 😆

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Live Auction April 20th

The auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway is Thursday!

You can watch the auction live at 4:00pm Pacific Time on the Concierge Auctions mobile app, where you can also find their rules list.  They will add a 10% buyer’s premium to the winning bid to determine the final sales price.  If you didn’t know that and want to change your bid, feel free!

Kemp has $12,000,000 invested.  The person with the closest guess will receive four tickets to a Padres game!  Here are the guesses:

$4,200,000 – Rob

$4,735,000 – BAM

$5,325,000 – Amy

$5,700,000 – elbarcosr

$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie

$6,200,000 – Nick LB

$6,250,000 – Tom

$6,500,000 – LT

$6,519,000 – Matt V.

$6,900,000 – Daniel

$7,050,000 – Susie

$7,126.000 – Ed

$7,350,000 – Mark H.

$7,423,200 – Goughy

$7,875,000 – Kerry

$7,900,000 – kman

$8,000,000 – Name

$8,800,000 – Mike M.

$8,888,888.88 – JakeL

$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad

$9,210,000 – CJ

$9,400,000 – Derek

$9,500,000 – Joe k

$9,600,000 – Mike Call

$9,750,000 – bode

$9,800,000 – Jenny

$10,000,200 – Janet

$10,527,000 – Eddie89

There is still time – leave your guess in the comment section below.

Here are more details on the house:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2017/03/27/contest-4-padres-tickets/

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J. Geils

We lost a true guitar hero, J. Geils, on April 11th.

He mentions touring with the Stones in 1982 – were you one of the 100,000 who attended their show at the L.A. Coliseum?  The band was rocking that day!

But he and the band had disputes later, and there aren’t many great live show on youtube with J. Geils in them – lately the band was playing without him.  But this video has him talking about his guitars, and playing a little:

If you get a chance, watch the next video too about his Italian cars!

Offering Too Low

Part of a realtor’s job is to help manage expectations – not only those of their own clients, but expectations of the other agents and their clients too.

Recently I received an offer on a listing that was 25% under the list price.  They also wanted my seller to carry the financing for 30 years – which is unheard of – and oh yeah, it was contingent upon the sale of the buyers’ home too.

I told the agent (whose email-signature noted they were in the Top 10 statewide for their company) that if I was the seller and that offer was presented, I’d fire my agent.

Just like when we’ve seen a home with range-pricing that is too wide, it becomes impossible to bridge the gap – for three reasons:

  1.  Once a buyer puts a number on paper, their mind starts believing it’s real.
  2.  Buyer’s remorse is real too, and they cool off quickly.
  3.  Sellers are skeptical, and don’t feel like negotiating much.

It may be discussed as just a place to start, but once a buyer submits their price in writing, it becomes a comfortable number.  Going much higher than where they start is usually a function of how fast agents respond.  My rule-of-thumb is two counters max for each side, in less than four days.

In this case, my sellers weren’t desperate, they had already determined that they wanted to sell for at least 93% of list and were willing to wait for it.  I told the buyer’s agent that our price gap was too big, and I nicely asked the agent and buyers to go back to the drawing board.

Three days later, I received a new offer with bank financing, instead of seller-carry, but it still had the original price of 25% under list. It came with the buyers’ love letter; a full-page of reasons why my listing was the perfect fit for the buyers.

Was the love going to make the looming price gap surmountable?

In spite of houses around the county selling for 99% of list this year, we countered with a price that is 4% under our list – not bad, considering the original offer price.  On their counter, the buyers came up to 82% of list, but it took two days to arrive.  I knew the remaining price gap and time left wasn’t looking good.

I always want to respond promptly, because of #2 above – buyers cool off quickly.  We dropped another 2% within a few hours, but it wasn’t enough.  Two days later, the agent emailed that they lost interest – no counter, no love.

Five days gone by (seven days since the original offer), and the initial 25% gap killed our chances.  They knew before writing the offer that it would take at least 93% of list to buy the property, and they still offered – so initially there was some willingness to pay that or close.

If they would have started at 82% of list, and trimmed the time spent to 3-4 days, could we have made it to escrow?  I think so!

The Transparency Crossroads?

Our Zillow rep mentioned that they are investing heavily into virtual reality. (He’s reading the blog now – hey Jason!)

I’m a big proponent of video tours – there is no better way to help remind buyers of what they are thinking of purchasing.  We have seen the 3D tours hit the mainstream, and the virtual reality experience can’t be far behind.

Will we see an evolution of how homes are sold?

For that to happen, we would need a sea change in the realtor community.

Currently, the whole real estate industry is focused on representing sellers, and making buyers comply with their every wish.  There would need to be a buyer revolution for it to change.

I’ve already had sellers object to their home being so transparent. They don’t want buyers to see every nook and cranny, especially if their house is less than perfect.

While the virtual reality devices may provide some whiz-bang effect, don’t be surprised if they are slow to take hold.  Sellers and listing agents would rather tempt you with a select group of photos, and disappoint you with the truth once you arrive.

Zillow and others will push the virtual reality toys, and try to convince buyers that those who possess them are superior agents. But there won’t be widespread use, and it will end up just being another gimmick.

Inventory Watch

Real Spanish-style!

Easter is behind us and taxes are wrapping up – here we go!  There have been a steady stream of new listings, and for the next 3-4 weeks we will be in the prime selling season!

The Under-$800,000 inventory has rebounded nicely too – four weeks ago we had 19 houses for sale, and today there are 35 priced under $800,000!

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Feb 6
101
55
Feb 13
89
55
Feb 20
92
57
Feb 27
66
73
Mar 6
102
66
Mar 13
99
59
Mar 20
93
82
Mar 27
82
60
Apr 3
104
70
Apr 10
96
83
Apr 17
99
69

All ahead full!

Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:

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