by Jim the Realtor | Jul 20, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market, Zillow |
At the beginning of 2023, the Zillow 1-year forecast for San Diego home values was -0.8%. In May, their expected 1-year appreciation rate in our local areas was around +3%.
Now they are guessing it will be around 4%….which might cause more sellers to wait longer!
SE Carlsbad – 92009
NE Carlsbad – 92010
SW Carlsbad – 92011
Carmel Valley – 92130
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
La Jolla – 92037
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
When is the best time to sell?
- When no one else is.
- When you have great comps (recent sales) around you.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 1, 2023 | Forecasts, Zillow |
Zillow, Goldman Sachs, and every economist thought the 2023 market would be all negative.
But now….
Goldman Sachs originally forecasted home prices to fall by double digits. However, they have released a report titled – “As interest rates climb, the global housing market is surprisingly stable”. In it, they stated: “House prices [are] leveling out more quickly and at a higher level than would normally be expected given the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Home prices are defying expectations and RISING in major economies such as the U.S., Australia and Canada.”
Now Zillow is forecasting 3%-ish appreciation here for the next year – which sounds like the old normal:
NW Carlsbad – 92008
SE Carlsbad – 92009
NE Carlsbad – 92010
SW Carlsbad – 92011
Carmel Valley – 92130
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
by Jim the Realtor | May 31, 2023 | Carlsbad, Encinitas, Leucadia, Local Flavor
Here’s a sky shot of the South Carlsbad/Encinitas region in 1967. The La Costa Resort opened in 1965 (in the center of the photo) and another nine holes was added on the north end in 1984.
https://www.omnihotels.com/hotels/san-diego-la-costa/property-details/history/by-decade
Leucadia Blvd. didn’t go through until later, and Rancho Santa Fe Road goes up through San Marcos but there isn’t much else east of El Camino Real!
This is the full 1800×1800 image and should allow you to zoom in on desktops and iphones. I’m not having any luck with the pixel phones yet though!
by Jim the Realtor | May 17, 2023 | 2023, Zillow
Here are the Zillow estimates of appreciation over the next year – all are back into positive territory! If they are reading it correctly, it means they will have more increases coming over the next couple of months before the appreciation rate relaxes during the off-season.
Their accuracy doesn’t matter – it’s their impact on today’s home buyers that counts:
NW Carlsbad 92008
SE Carlsbad 92009
Encinitas 92024
La Jolla 92037
Rancho Santa Fe 92067
https://www.zillow.com/research/may-2023-home-value-sales-forecast-32643/
by Jim the Realtor | May 16, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy, Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market |
Here’s another example of how the frenzy has taken a different path in each area.
Carlsbad, Encinitas, La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe are rolling along with about the same or more pendings than last month – which should have been the peak – but the wheels have come off the wagon in Carmel Valley. There hasn’t been single-digit pendings in the 92130 since we started checking this two years ago! But there are homes for sale, which must mean the prices need some adjustment.
In 2020, there were 400+ pendings from June 22nd to Nov. 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on Sept. 7.
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 16, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy, Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
Four areas have MORE pendings than active listings, which is a sign of a red-hot market, and all areas except Rancho Santa Fe are around the healthy 2:1 ratio. But the most interesting datapoint is how the number of active listings has been skidding downward ever since rates went up:
The demand may have dropped off, but the supply is shrinking just as fast, or faster. Virtually everyone who is thinking about selling their house this year is going to be on the market in the next 2-3 months, and so far, it doesn’t look like the number of springtime sellers will be anywhere close to what we’ve had in the past.
The number of 2023 NSDCC listings is already 20% behind last year’s count – which was the lowest ever.
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 29, 2023 | Zillow
It looks like Zillow is sticking with their relatively flat forecasts for our local areas. It’s probably realistic if appreciation goes like it did in 2022 – everything gained in the spring selling season is given back in the off-season. Note how the ‘typical home value’ is still higher than it was a year ago in every area:
NW Carlsbad – 92008
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 28, 2022 | About Kayla, About Natalie, About the author, Richard Morgan
These are my favorites this year:
Richard and I on the way to the Padres vs. Dodgers Playoff Game 4 knockout
At a friend’s Christmas party
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 21, 2022 | Forecasts, Why You Should List With Jim, Year-End Review, Zillow |
As the national leader of real estate, Zillow is attempting to guide people with data, thankfully. Their Home-Value Index has been decent, and I’ll take the -7% for San Diego….which means our premium areas haven’t felt much decline at all.
Their comment on current conditions isn’t ground-breaking but at least it offers some hope:
Activity in the housing market has slowed to a crawl this winter but the stage is set for a spring thaw: buyers can count on the usual springtime flood of new listings, and less frenzied competition than the last two spring selling seasons in the New Year. But if home shoppers really want to experience some deserted open houses, there’s no time like the present, because this lull won’t last long.
Here are their latest predictions about our local areas, all of which have values that are higher YoY:
NW Carlsbad
SE Carlsbad
NE Carlsbad
SW Carlsbad
Carmel Valley
Del Mar
Encinitas
La Jolla
Rancho Santa Fe
Let’s enjoy our stay in Plateau City – we may be here for a while!
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 16, 2022 | 2023, Spring Kick, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow |
There are three types of sellers:
Sure I’m motivated….if I get my price.- I’ll sell for what the market will bear.
- Desperate.
Unless the home is a real trophy property, this isn’t the market that tolerates aspirational sellers. For those who will only sell if they get their price – you should wait this out….and it could take a while.
The high-priced listings might get showings, but mostly to buyers who are considering the better-priced home down the street. It will take another six months and some boost from a strong spring selling season before the listings priced at retail-plus will start selling again. And that’s probably optimistic.
I still think the 2023 Spring Selling Season will be boisterous, and the sales volume will pick up – but generally-speaking, I agree with Zillow that pricing won’t be rising. Here are Z’s latest predictions:
SE Carlsbad 92009
Del Mar – 92014
La Jolla – 92037
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
Carmel Valley 92130
Less than 1% annual increases in prime neighborhoods? Yikes!
There is nothing wrong with being in Plateau City. Sellers just need to recalibrate and be smart about what it takes to sell a home in this environment:
- Hire a great agent.
- Spruce up the home.
- Utilize effective staging.
- Price attractively (be the best-priced active listing).
- Make it easy to show.
That’s all – and if you don’t do all five, it’s ok because there’s nothing that price won’t fix!
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An example of #1 is the now-famous property for sale in Del Mar on Border. A buyer thought they could get approvals to build a high-end resort there, but it was put to a vote, and the citizens turned it down. A new buyer is now hoping to turn it into apartments.
It’s been for sale since 2007, or 5,573 days!
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/929-border-avenue-solana-beach-ca-92075/25353758691121345
P.S. If there is anyone who wonders why their Over-$4,000,000 stats don’t match up with mine, it’s because I take this listing out every week so it doesn’t skew the averages.
