We’re winding down now – Kayla is coming home tomorrow!
Bubbleinfo.com has been in existence for 15 years! The peak audience here was at the bottom of the market (~11k), but having 5.6k users over the last 28 days is fantastic – thanks for being here!
Over the last 15 years:
Total number of Blog Posts: 9,820 (plus a few hundred more on the previous Squarespace format)
Blog comments: 64,524 (of which 6,587 were mine)
Twitter: 11,200 tweets
Instagram: 482 posts, 1,087 followers (Natalie is running it)
The big news this week is that Kayla is going solo!
You’re never going to be comfortable and ready to go on your own, so at some point, every agent has to take the plunge. She is going to keep working at Douglas Elliman in their midtown Manhattan office, and she has pledged to have her new blog up and running by October 1st!
The leaders of Kayla’s real estate team will be speaking with America’s most famous appraiser today at 3pm. There will be a NYC-focus, but I’ve heard all three of these speakers before and it will be worth a listen:
Join us and guest speaker, Jonathan J. Miller, industry-leading commentator, appraiser, consultant, and author of real estate reports, for an in-depth discussion:
- Valuations then, now and the day after tomorrow… Where are the bargains?
- The banking industry. New Corona lending guidelines.
- Re-opening the real estate industry – what, when, and how?
Register Here to receive the Zoom link.
We look forward to “seeing you”.
Kayla flew home from Manhattan this morning on Delta – there were only 20 people on the plane!
Her Douglas Elliman offices are closed through March 31st and probably longer. Hopefully she didn’t bring the bug back with her, but it’s better than her catching it there and having to cope with it alone.
She loves being in Manhattan, and plans to go back, of course.
But what will the market be like for newer agents everywhere?
The big, successful agents will use this off-time to prepare additional marketing materials, and be ready to go once the virus is done. We’ll have 1-3 months of pent-up supply and demand, so we’ll try to squeeze the whole 6-month selling season into 60 days. The crafty experienced agents will be glad to facilitate those sales, but there won’t be enough to go around for everyone.
I’m guessing that we will probably sell 20% to 30% fewer homes this year, and it could be less. The sales will drop off long before sellers think about dumping on price, and because the virus isn’t a permanent change in the marketplace, it will be too easy for sellers to wait it out instead. It will be tough on every agent who is on the edge.
Somebody said today that they expect to see big price declines and foreclosures in the next 2-3 months, but that’s not happening. The moratoriums are in place, and homeowners who can’t make payments will get as much time as they need. It’s more likely that we will experience the Big Stall-Out, with the market still airborne and just waiting for the engine to kick back on.
More historical photos seen over the last year – this is San Diego in 1892:
Del Mar in 1895:
Mission Valley in 1891:
San Diego Bay in 1932:
North Island in 1936:
The Mission Bay Bridge in 1914 with roller coaster in background:
Ocean Beach and Mission Beach in 1930:
Pacific Beach in 1945:
Sail Bay in PB around 1960 – not a house on the La Jolla hill yet!
Downtown Carlsbad….in the 1940s? There were only a handful of oceanfront homes!
La Costa in 1967 with the resort in the middle and nothing to the west of it:
Us at the Rose Bowl yesterday – the first time we’ve gone to an Oregon bowl game that they won!
How was your Thanksgiving?
We spent ours in Manhattan, and got to see Kayla at work. Here she is showing us her top-floor rental listing on the Upper West Side:
If you or someone you know is moving in or out of New York City, have Kayla help! She can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Kayla joined the team, and they went straight to #1!
If you, or someone you know is moving to New York City, contact her!
|LICENSED REAL ESTATE SALESPERSON|
|DOUGLAS ELLIMAN REAL ESTATE|
|the Jacky Teplitzky Team|
|New York ~ Miami|
|575 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY 10022|
Kayla has joined the Jacky Teplitzky Team, one of the most successful realtor teams in the history of Manhattan real estate – and she couldn’t be more excited! Her first week on the job was jam-packed with tours of their listings, and other training. Look out now, NYC!
The process began when Kayla was aggressively pursuing a deal on one of Jacky’s listings, and partner Barak took notice and suggested Kayla should work for them. She did interview with two other teams – one at Compass and another Elliman team – but she felt Jacky’s team was a perfect fit for her.
Jacky is known as a leader in the realtor community, and was featured as a panelist this week – an excerpt:
They’re worried about the health of the economy and the state of politics, both local and national. And they’re just as concerned about the rise of disruptors and third-party lead-generation companies. More than 100 people crammed into the lobby of the Elad Group’s under-construction condo on West 43 Street to hear what top residential brokerage executives and agents had to say about it all.
The whiplash between reality and market predictions is leaving many people “starving for information,” according to Shlomi Reuveni, founder of Reuveni Real Estate, who organized and moderated the event. “I have never seen a market like this,” he said. “This is as surreal as it gets.”
While the crowd sipped champagne and picked at a catered lunch, Brown Harris Stevens’ CEO Bess Freedman, Warburg Realty’s Frederick Peters and Modern Spaces’ CEO Eric Benaim debated Donna Olshan, Nancy Packes, Compass’ Kyle Blackmon and Douglas Elliman’s Jacky Teplitzky swapped takes on the health of the market.
Teplitzky called it a “schizophrenic” market, saying that she’s finding there’s “no rhyme or reason” to what transacts. (She did underline a “surge” of buyers from Mexico and potentially Argentina as a bright spot for buyers with some urgency.)
Olshan noted that she believed that the elimination of the state and local tax deductions was “the tipping point.”
Teplitzky disagreed. She attributed the slowdown in purchasing to the vast amount of product buyers can choose from, adding that “there is more off the market than on the market.”
At first they told Kayla that she probably wouldn’t be doing an open house for three months, but her first week went so well that she is having an open house today!
Do you know of anyone who is thinking of moving into or out of Manhattan? Contact Kayla!
Kayla was in town last week for her sister’s college graduation. We didn’t get a chance to put it on video, but we did discuss what it’s like to sell homes in Manhattan!
Her team has several listings, and she does open houses regularly. The format there is quite different – they only do open house for an hour, and don’t use any signs, so the only people who come are those who see the advertising.
But it works – she has sold two homes to buyers who came to the open house, and bought it!
The negotiation process is unbelievable though. In California she got used to making written offers on our standard forms that have a three-day expiration date built into the boilerplate.
But in New York City, they negotiate verbally, which leaves it wide open for the listing agent to take days or longer to respond. It might be worth waiting to see if there were other offers if it’s a new listing, but I wouldn’t want to frustrate a ready, willing, and able buyer in a shaky market.
Once they come to an agreement between buyer and seller, they memorialize it by email. Then the lawyers go to work, and 2-4 weeks later they finally deliver contracts for signature. It seems like an environment ripe for shenanigans, because nothing is signed until then.
There is one other head-shaker.
They don’t do dual agency. Instead, when she brings the buyer for one of their own listings, they sign a form saying that they are unrepresented – no agency! I would imagine that there still has to be some assistance provided to get the deal closed, but technically their lawyer is the only one that is on their side officially.
I asked her about the Compass broker who said on camera that the home values in Manhattan have dropped 10% in the last year, and she said it’s probably true on the higher end, but entry level (under a million) is still hot. Here’s an example – she sold this home while she was here, and got within 3% of list:
Because a 1br/1ba, 759sf home with a HOA fee of $1,335/mo that’s priced at $899,000 is out of reach for many, the rental market is hot too. Kayla has helped a couple of people from San Diego find a good rental!
If you, or someone you know is thinking of moving to the Big Apple, contact her – she’d love to help bubbleinfo readers!