NYC Real Estate Report

Our daughter Kayla was planning to be here anyway, and was due to arrive yesterday. Thankfully, she was able to catch a flight on Tuesday, and missed all the excitement in the Big Apple!

I’m hoping to get her on video before she goes home.

Kayla & Mom

Donna’s tribute to Kayla (from our newsletter) will be the perfect way to kick off more contributions:

Tomorrow (July 9th) is a very special day. 30 years ago I became a Mom and I remember like it was yesterday. Filled with uncertainty – can I do this? Emotional – lots of hormones! But filled with lots of love and wonder as I took a look at our little girl Kayla Marie.

I remember fondly 3 year old Kayla who loved “Mommy and Me” Saturdays which were basically errands but to her it was an important outing just the two of us. Kayla has a way of making everything special. We always ended up sitting in the car feeding McDonalds French Fries to the seagulls in Carlsbad – the car would be filled with squeals because those seagulls can get aggressive. With Kayla you can always count on laughing until your stomach hurts.

Kayla found her voice through dance – she used to be very shy as a toddler. But anyone who knows her now knows Kayla can talk to anyone about anything – she makes friends easily. When she decided three years ago to move to New York City because she has always wanted to live there ever since Gossip Girl, I was so impressed by her courage to just go for it. I will never forget her saying to me “Mom we just got to walk on in like we own the place” when we were figuring out what to do at this event. I watched her walk into this room and own it – it was a memory.

But what I love the most about Kayla is her huge heart. Her 2nd Grade teacher Angie told me about how big her heart was and she was right. You just feel it. 30 years and she has never stopped living her life that way. She would do almost anything for anyone she cares about. She will give you everything she has. She is a loyal and fierce friend. She remembers everyone’s birthday – just ask her and she can tell you without looking it up on her phone. When you are with her and she’s focused (sometimes she isn’t), you feel special and just fortunate you are in her world. Of course she is not perfect; she drives me crazy at times and there are days I just need a break. It can be exhausting! But then she wouldn’t be Kayla with all her glory, fun and charm.

Happy Birthday sweet girl – I am so glad you chose me to be your mom! I love you lots and I am so proud of the woman you have become. Here’s to you – 30 and Fabulous! Enjoy your special day.

Love Mom

Happy Birthday Kayla!

Last night

Today is Kayla’s 30th birthday!

The stories started early last night, and the favorite was her memory of us going to Disneyland when she was a kid, and waiting in line for autographs from a boy band who was playing that week.

Before we got to the front of the line, they shut down the signings – and Kayla was crushed.

That night, she talked me into taking her back, just so she could get her autographs. Over Mom’s objections, we returned the next day and she got what she wanted!

She is equally determined to stay in Manhattan for the duration, and make it as a realtor.  She had two sales set up for closing next week, which would have been a new record for her.

But one of the sales just got delayed because the seller didn’t feel like moving until middle of August.  Because the sale was in a co-op building where the owners have to approve of the new buyer, the purchase contract (authored by attorneys) doesn’t specify a closing date due to the uncertainty of the approval process.

It’s part of Kayla’s job as buyer’s agent to submit a ‘board package’ so they can review the buyers and their financials, which she did well in advance and got it approved. But without a closing date set in advance like we do it in California, her buyers will have to wait another month before moving in, which was fine – but different!

Happy Birthday Kayla – it is my life’s joy to be your Daddy! I love you!

Bubbleinfo.com, The First 15 Years

Bubbleinfo.com has been in existence for 15 years!  The peak audience here was at the bottom of the market (~11k), but having 5.6k users over the last 28 days is fantastic – thanks for being here!

Over the last 15 years:

Total number of Blog Posts: 9,820 (plus a few hundred more on the previous Squarespace format)

Blog comments: 64,524 (of which 6,587 were mine)

Twitter: 11,200 tweets

Instagram: 482 posts, 1,087 followers (Natalie is running it)


The big news this week is that Kayla is going solo!

You’re never going to be comfortable and ready to go on your own, so at some point, every agent has to take the plunge.  She is going to keep working at Douglas Elliman in their midtown Manhattan office, and she has pledged to have her new blog up and running by October 1st!

Appraiser Interview Today 3pm PT

The leaders of Kayla’s real estate team will be speaking with America’s most famous appraiser today at 3pm. There will be a NYC-focus, but I’ve heard all three of these speakers before and it will be worth a listen:

Join us and guest speaker, Jonathan J. Miller, industry-leading commentator, appraiser, consultant, and author of real estate reports, for an in-depth discussion:

  • Valuations then, now and the day after tomorrow… Where are the bargains?
  • The banking industry. New Corona lending guidelines.
  • Re-opening the real estate industry – what, when, and how?

Register Here to receive the Zoom link.

We look forward to “seeing you”.


Kayla Is Home!

Kayla flew home from Manhattan this morning on Delta – there were only 20 people on the plane!

Her Douglas Elliman offices are closed through March 31st and probably longer.  Hopefully she didn’t bring the bug back with her, but it’s better than her catching it there and having to cope with it alone.

She loves being in Manhattan, and plans to go back, of course.

But what will the market be like for newer agents everywhere?

The big, successful agents will use this off-time to prepare additional marketing materials, and be ready to go once the virus is done.  We’ll have 1-3 months of pent-up supply and demand, so we’ll try to squeeze the whole 6-month selling season into 60 days.  The crafty experienced agents will be glad to facilitate those sales, but there won’t be enough to go around for everyone.

I’m guessing that we will probably sell 20% to 30% fewer homes this year, and it could be less.  The sales will drop off long before sellers think about dumping on price, and because the virus isn’t a permanent change in the marketplace, it will be too easy for sellers to wait it out instead.  It will be tough on every agent who is on the edge.

Somebody said today that they expect to see big price declines and foreclosures in the next 2-3 months, but that’s not happening.  The moratoriums are in place, and homeowners who can’t make payments will get as much time as they need.  It’s more likely that we will experience the Big Stall-Out, with the market still airborne and just waiting for the engine to kick back on.

Historical Photos

More historical photos seen over the last year – this is San Diego in 1892:

Del Mar in 1895:

Mission Valley in 1891:

San Diego Bay in 1932:

North Island in 1936:

The Mission Bay Bridge in 1914 with roller coaster in background:

Ocean Beach and Mission Beach in 1930:

Pacific Beach in 1945:

Sail Bay in PB around 1960 – not a house on the La Jolla hill yet!

Downtown Carlsbad….in the 1940s?  There were only a handful of oceanfront homes!

La Costa in 1967 with the resort in the middle and nothing to the west of it:

Us at the Rose Bowl yesterday – the first time we’ve gone to an Oregon bowl game that they won!

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