Kayla flew home from Manhattan this morning on Delta – there were only 20 people on the plane!
Her Douglas Elliman offices are closed through March 31st and probably longer. Hopefully she didn’t bring the bug back with her, but it’s better than her catching it there and having to cope with it alone.
She loves being in Manhattan, and plans to go back, of course.
But what will the market be like for newer agents everywhere?
The big, successful agents will use this off-time to prepare additional marketing materials, and be ready to go once the virus is done. We’ll have 1-3 months of pent-up supply and demand, so we’ll try to squeeze the whole 6-month selling season into 60 days. The crafty experienced agents will be glad to facilitate those sales, but there won’t be enough to go around for everyone.
I’m guessing that we will probably sell 20% to 30% fewer homes this year, and it could be less. The sales will drop off long before sellers think about dumping on price, and because the virus isn’t a permanent change in the marketplace, it will be too easy for sellers to wait it out instead. It will be tough on every agent who is on the edge.
Somebody said today that they expect to see big price declines and foreclosures in the next 2-3 months, but that’s not happening. The moratoriums are in place, and homeowners who can’t make payments will get as much time as they need. It’s more likely that we will experience the Big Stall-Out, with the market still airborne and just waiting for the engine to kick back on.
Kayla has joined the Jacky Teplitzky Team, one of the most successful realtor teams in the history of Manhattan real estate – and she couldn’t be more excited! Her first week on the job was jam-packed with tours of their listings, and other training. Look out now, NYC!
The process began when Kayla was aggressively pursuing a deal on one of Jacky’s listings, and partner Barak took notice and suggested Kayla should work for them. She did interview with two other teams – one at Compass and another Elliman team – but she felt Jacky’s team was a perfect fit for her.
Jacky is known as a leader in the realtor community, and was featured as a panelist this week – an excerpt:
They’re worried about the health of the economy and the state of politics, both local and national. And they’re just as concerned about the rise of disruptors and third-party lead-generation companies. More than 100 people crammed into the lobby of the Elad Group’s under-construction condo on West 43 Street to hear what top residential brokerage executives and agents had to say about it all.
The whiplash between reality and market predictions is leaving many people “starving for information,” according to Shlomi Reuveni, founder of Reuveni Real Estate, who organized and moderated the event. “I have never seen a market like this,” he said. “This is as surreal as it gets.”
While the crowd sipped champagne and picked at a catered lunch, Brown Harris Stevens’ CEO Bess Freedman, Warburg Realty’s Frederick Peters and Modern Spaces’ CEO Eric Benaim debated Donna Olshan, Nancy Packes, Compass’ Kyle Blackmon and Douglas Elliman’s Jacky Teplitzky swapped takes on the health of the market.
Teplitzky called it a “schizophrenic” market, saying that she’s finding there’s “no rhyme or reason” to what transacts. (She did underline a “surge” of buyers from Mexico and potentially Argentina as a bright spot for buyers with some urgency.)
Olshan noted that she believed that the elimination of the state and local tax deductions was “the tipping point.”
Teplitzky disagreed. She attributed the slowdown in purchasing to the vast amount of product buyers can choose from, adding that “there is more off the market than on the market.”
Kayla was in town last week for her sister’s college graduation. We didn’t get a chance to put it on video, but we did discuss what it’s like to sell homes in Manhattan!
Her team has several listings, and she does open houses regularly. The format there is quite different – they only do open house for an hour, and don’t use any signs, so the only people who come are those who see the advertising.
But it works – she has sold two homes to buyers who came to the open house, and bought it!
The negotiation process is unbelievable though. In California she got used to making written offers on our standard forms that have a three-day expiration date built into the boilerplate.
But in New York City, they negotiate verbally, which leaves it wide open for the listing agent to take days or longer to respond. It might be worth waiting to see if there were other offers if it’s a new listing, but I wouldn’t want to frustrate a ready, willing, and able buyer in a shaky market.
Once they come to an agreement between buyer and seller, they memorialize it by email. Then the lawyers go to work, and 2-4 weeks later they finally deliver contracts for signature. It seems like an environment ripe for shenanigans, because nothing is signed until then.
There is one other head-shaker.
They don’t do dual agency. Instead, when she brings the buyer for one of their own listings, they sign a form saying that they are unrepresented – no agency! I would imagine that there still has to be some assistance provided to get the deal closed, but technically their lawyer is the only one that is on their side officially.
I asked her about the Compass broker who said on camera that the home values in Manhattan have dropped 10% in the last year, and she said it’s probably true on the higher end, but entry level (under a million) is still hot. Here’s an example – she sold this home while she was here, and got within 3% of list:
Because a 1br/1ba, 759sf home with a HOA fee of $1,335/mo that’s priced at $899,000 is out of reach for many, the rental market is hot too. Kayla has helped a couple of people from San Diego find a good rental!
If you, or someone you know is thinking of moving to the Big Apple, contact her– she’d love to help bubbleinfo readers!
The San Diego premiere of Owned, A Tale of Two Americas is scheduled for a matinee showing on Saturday, March 23rd at the La Costa Cinepolis!
The producer, Giorgio Angelini, will be here and we’ll do a Q&A session after the film. I’m hoping to talk him into bringing an outakes/blooper reel too. There will also be a reception/party afterwards onsite. Our two daughters, Kayla and Natalie will also attend!
This will be a private event, with no tickets sold. Seating is limited.
If you’d like to come, email Donna at firstname.lastname@example.org
Here is a link to previous blog posts and the five-year history of the project:
"Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community... more "
by Ann Romanello
"Jim educated us, helped us find the perfect house, and then negotiated us a great deal. I would hate to be sitting across the negotiating table from ... more "
"Jim is thorough and will be brutally honest about the homes he shows you. He provides great service and follows through until the very end and even ... more "
"I highly recommend Jim as a buyer’s agent. Working with Jim, we closed this week on a San Diego condo. Jim prepared a list of comparable sales to ... more "