Jessie says we are in the top 3% of local realtors, which means she is counting 16,000+ agents in the county. She doesn’t include out-of-area or off-market sales, and because we made it into the Compass Top 50, we’re hoping it might mean we’re a little higher. Stay tuned.
In the discussion today, it quickly became obvious how important it is for agents to be able to discuss scenarios and solutions. These days, a buyer-agent will just email an offer to the listing agent, and hope it gets accepted or an easy counter-offer comes back. Any tougher than that and the buyer-agents just turn to their clients and say, ‘what do you think?’ and because no other solution is presented, everyone gives up.
The wicked seller’s market during the last 10-12 years has caused everybody to expect that buyers will just pay the sellers’ price – and if they don’t, then they are called names and declared not serious. Being able to craft these scenarios into sales is where this market will benefit greatly.
It may sound simple to expect agents to discuss offer terms, but don’t underestimate how limited that opportunity is. Not only do people who are used to texting and emailing all day find it a struggle to stitch together a sentence or two in person, they usually have little or no experience with actually discussing offers and how to find a win-win solution. It’s too easy to give up instead.
Ok, ok – North Carolina is too far, and Arizona is too hot. How about moving to Mexico?
Mexico is the ultimate vacation destination, with thousands of miles of beaches, mouthwatering cuisine, fascinating culture, and traditions steeped in thousands of years of history. But our southern neighbor has become increasingly popular with digital nomads and expats, too, due to its affordable cost of living and health care, warm weather, reasonably priced housing and low property taxes, and stable economy. In 2022, a record number of Americans relocated to Mexico, with Mexico City as a top destination.
Read on for eight of the best and most welcoming places to relocate to in Mexico for safety, economic opportunities, and a wealth of recreational activities.
Just what we need – a new model that comes to the same wrong conclusion……
A new model of forecasting home prices based on consumer demand predicts that prices for housing will decrease by 5% nationally and 12% in San Diego County by the end of this year. The model, which highlights online search activity, was recently published in a new study from the University of California San Diego’s Rady School of Management.
The model’s predictions have a proven accuracy rate of up to 70% and are unique to other price predictors — such as Zillow, Goldman Sachs and Redfin —because those consider a variety of factors like interest rates, wage growth, unemployment and housing supply. Whereas the housing search index created by Allan Timmermann of the Rady School and collaborators at Arhus University in Denmark, focuses on consumer demand by tracking the rate at which prospective buyers use the internet to search for homes.
“It is one of the purest measures of potential demand that you can get because the first thing you do when you’re looking for a house or interested in buying a house, is to go to the internet and look at what is available,” said Timmermann, a distinguished professor of finance at the Rady School. “Those in the market for a home leave a big footprint with their online search activity because of the time it takes – often several months – to find something that is the right fit.”
Cities like San Diego have housing prices dropping more than the national average because it’s where the market overheated the most during the pandemic, Timmermann said.
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
Most areas look healthy (ratio of 2:1 or better), and those in red have very similar to numbers to last spring which was probably the hottest frenzy on record:
The number of pendings has risen 33% in the last month, and the active listings are restrained. There aren’t any signs of panic and there have been some eye-popping sales already this year that makes you think the frenzy conditions are still around.
We are set up for a boisterous selling season, in spite of high prices, high rates, and high skepticism!
The critical point in this video is when the second seller dropped 7% to make the sale after just three weeks on the market……even though that was 10% under the last sale that backed to power lines.
This is what can happen. Did they have bills to pay? Did the agent press them to take it? We don’t know, yet we consider every comparable sale equally and base our opinions on price alone.
The seller of the $2,225,000 sale had purchased it in 2013 for $1,109,000 and his mortgage amount was under $300,000. What’s a hundred thousand in either direction to him?
The previous high sale of this model was $2,100,000 in December, 2021.
The high sale before that was $1,750,000 in 2020.
The high sale before that was $1,320,000 in 2019.
Are we binary simpletons? Will the next seller and listing agent consider all of these variables? Or just go with $2,200,000 as the latest sale/current value and hope for the best? Or check the zestimate?? 😆
The next sale could go 10% to 20% in either direction, depending on the agent.
The mortgage rates are heading for 7% again, which is shocking, given it was 5.99% on Feb. 2nd.
Higher rates will discourage both buyers and sellers, and make them want to wait for a “better market” some day in the future. Whether that day will come isn’t considered – all they know is that it isn’t today.
It should mean that the market will be cleared of any casualness, and only the highly motivated buyers and sellers will be engaging. Buyers will be more picky, and sellers will need to be sharp on price.
How sharp?
It will be different in each neighborhood, but I’ll give you one example.
After I set the market on fire in Encinitas Ranch at the end of 2021, this one-story house went for sale. It got bid up a million over the list price (which was deliberately set low by the seller), and the buyer paid cash:
I think the buyer passed away, unfortunately, and the house is coming back on the market.
Today’s list price, just a year after purchase? $2,900,000.
It is possible that 2023 is going to be as good as it gets for sellers – at least for the next few years. The Fed is adamant about crushing the economy, and we could see mortgage rates well into the 7s and, dare I say, we might be pushing 8% mortgages by summer.
The number of sales will be lower than ever, which means more volatility. It will be wild and crazy for some, and that might be entertaining for the casual participants but it won’t draw them off the sidelines.
The higher the mortgage rates go, the less volume there will be and some markets could freeze up.
And this could be as good as it gets for a while – yippee!
I knew every word to every song on this album by the time I was 15 years old – no wonder it’s like this! The song starts at the 3:30-minute mark, but Frank’s pre-song banter is worth it.
I dedicate this to my boss Steve who is in the process of moving to Whitefish, Montana as we speak.
Paying over the list price wasn’t a new thing created by the frenzy – there have always been over-list sales in the past. But getting down to 8% last month begged for a comparison to a previous January!
In January, 2019 there were 151 NSDCC sales, and 18 of them (12%) closed over the list price. Of the eighteen, seven were among the 37 sales that closed under $1,000,000 (which were a quarter of all sales).
Thirty of the 37 sales under $1,000,000 closed for less than full price?
Last month, we didn’t even have ANY sales that closed under a million!
With 92% of closings last month selling for list price or less, it must mean that today’s sellers are more willing to ‘give away’ their home. They have gained huge gobs of equity in the last couple of years, and only the seriously-motivated sellers would dare try to sell their house in a ‘bad’ market. If they need to give back a bigger portion to make the deal, they might do it.
Let’s predict the next few months.
Sellers will still try to get full retail, and based on the over-list stats from last month, 10% or less will get it. The rest will be priced to sit, and after 30+ days on the market, be prone to receiving lowball offers.
This is where the 2023 Spring Selling Season will be made. Will 80% to 90% of sellers take a low offer?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NSDCC Average and Median Prices by Month
Month
# of Sales
Avg. LP
Avg. SP
Median LP
Median SP
Feb
224
$2,298,797
$2,257,334
$1,719,500
$1,758,000
March
252
$2,295,629
$2,260,524
$1,800,000
$1,825,000
April
357
$2,396,667
$2,403,962
$1,799,900
$1,828,000
May
300
$2,596,992
$2,581,715
$1,900,000
$1,994,500
June
348
$2,509,175
$2,537,953
$1,900,000
$1,967,500
July
311
$2,421,326
$2,442,738
$1,795,000
$1,855,000
Aug
268
$2,415,075
$2,438,934
$1,897,000
$1,950,000
Sept
278
$2,479,440
$2,445,817
$1,899,000
$1,987,500
Oct
248
$2,754,470
$2,705,071
$1,899,000
$1,899,500
Nov
199
$2,713,693
$2,707,359
$1,999,000
$2,100,000
Dec
189
$2,686,126
$2,664,391
$1,985,000
$2,157,500
Jan
140
$2,828,988
$2,855,213
$2,234,944
$2,240,000
Feb
158
$3,063,331
$3,108,907
$2,149,500
$2,386,500
Mar
207
$3,247,251
$3,337,348
$2,400,000
$2,625,000
Apr
227
$3,190,161
$3,251,604
$2,350,000
$2,550,000
May
215
$2,943,657
$3,032,977
$2,350,000
$2,500,000
Jun
190
$2,864,089
$2,872,690
$2,297,500
$2,350,000
Jul
155
$2,889,612
$2,832,080
$2,299,900
$2,300,000
Aug
164
$2,933,243
$2,830,855
$2,200,000
$2,150,000
Sep
135
$2,650,642
$2,560,314
$2,149,000
$2,040,000
Oct
124
$3,090,320
$2,971,211
$2,272,500
$2,212,500
Nov
115
$2,581,790
$2,459,974
$1,950,000
$1,875,000
Dec
100
$2,859,960
$2,675,549
$2,097,500
$1,892,500
Jan
96
$3,032,101
$2,897,135
$2,197,500
$2,075,000
In the months when the average and median sales prices increased, it didn’t mean your home’s value went up – it just means that the set of homes were a little bigger and nicer than other months.
The number of sales is the real indicator. Fewer and fewer homes are deserving of today’s pricing.
There were 182 NSDCC listings in January, as of today – which means we have a clear winner, even if a few more listings get added by late-reporters.
Congratulations Rob Dawg!
The season starts on March 30th, and May looks like a great month to attend a game. What might be the two best giveaways of the season (vs. the Reds and the Royals) happen that month, plus the Dodgers make their first visit back to Petco Park.
Dawg’s favorite team, the Red Sox, also return in May!
The summary of guesses, with some additions from the FB page:
16 Noodle
89 Momento
99 Tom
104 BWell_SoCal
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
117 Susie
119 Beachside
120 Curtis
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
142 MC
146 Derek
152 Drew
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy 186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
203 Lauren Stickelman
213 Shadash
252 Aunt Nancy
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
333 Sherman Messing
149 Median
This was the first time that the actual count of January listings landed in the upper third of the guesses. But don’t get giddy about the inventory just yet – here’s how it compares:
NSDCC January Listings:
2018: 426
2019: 418
2020: 354
2021: 289
2022: 223
2023: 182
The lack of choices is what causes hyper-frenzy conditions – it causes buyers to freak out. When a top-quality listing hits the market, buyers feel like this might be their only chance this month, or this year, to buy such a good match to their needs – and then the lack of transparency makes them go nuts.
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
