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San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Jan

I was so giddy yesterday about dropping rates that the latest Case-Shiller Index didn’t cross my mind. Our doomer guy jumped on the sixth consecutive decline above, but that was when we were nearing 5% mortgage rates and full market stall-out. Now that the sub-4% punch bowl is back, we should see the usual six months of increases begin again with the next reading:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Reporting Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’17
231.21
+0.8%
+5.7%
February
233.31
+0.9%
+6.5%
March
235.61
+1.0%
+6.4%
April
237.48
+0.8%
+6.6%
May
239.84
+1.0%
+6.5%
June
241.96
+0.9%
+7.0%
Jul
243.48
+0.6%
+7.1%
Aug
245.55
+0.9%
+7.8%
Sept
246.61
+0.5%
+8.2%
Oct
246.58
+0.0%
+8.1%
Nov
245.74
-0.3%
+7.4%
Dec
246.29
+0.2%
+7.4%
January ’18
248.16
+0.8%
+7.3%
February
250.91
+1.1%
+7.5%
March
253.41
+1.0%
+7.6%
April
255.63
+0.9%
+7.7%
May
257.07
+0.6%
+7.3%
Jun
258.44
+0.6%
+6.9%
Jul
258.49
0.0%
+6.2%
Aug
257.32
-0.5%
+4.7%
Sept
256.13
-0.4%
+3.9%
Oct
255.42
-0.1%
+3.7%
Nov
253.59
-0.6%
+3.3%
Dec
251.92
-0.7%
+2.3%
Jan
251.37
-0.2%
+1.3%

The 2.8% drop over the last six months is nothing but a flesh wound – sellers aren’t going to panic until there are big chunks of decline per month. The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005 – about where we are today!

It’s Really Go Time Now!

Mortgage rates have continued their slide, and lenders should be offering fixed-rate loans with rates starting in the threes again, with little or no points!  The new pendings are flowing, but we still haven’t seen a flood of new listings:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales in March

Year
March Listings
Median LP
March Sales
Median SP
2015
497
$1,275,000
298
$1,137,500
2016
532
$1,470,000
252
$1,143,665
2017
505
$1,395,000
258
$1,074,000
2018
446
$1,549,000
259
$1,397,500
2019
396
$1,514,497
153
$1,320,000

The latest numbers are month-to-date, and will increase considerably with four business days to go.  But the March sales will end up well under last year’s count, though the lower rates should help boost sales in April and May.

There are threes on the street:

For those who want to prepare for making an offer and would like to review our contracts, the California Association of Realtors have made available a sample copy with explanations:

https://www.car.org/riskmanagement/Consumer-RPA

Don’t be surprised if it’s a little clunky.

The Documentary-Film Premiere

The documentary-film premiere went great on Saturday at Cinepolis, where we had about 80 people view the movie – and they liked it! You’ll see it on iTunes on June 4th – here is a partial description from the website www.ownedfilm.com

The United States’ postwar housing policy created the world’s largest middle class. It also set America on two divergent paths — one of imagined wealth, propped up by speculation and endless booms and busts, and the other in systematically defunded, segregated communities, where “the American dream” feels hopelessly out of reach.

Owned is a fever dream vision into the dark history behind the US housing economy. Tracking its overtly racist beginnings and its unbridled commoditization, the film exposes a foundational story that few Americans understand as their own.

In 2008, the US housing market became the epicenter of an unprecedented global economic collapse. In the years since, protests in cities like Baltimore have highlighted the stark racial disparities that define many American cities. The crash of suburbia and urban unrest are not unrelated — they are two sides of the same coin, two divergent paths set in motion by the United States’ post-war housing policy.

Boomer Exodus

As boomers grow older, it’s inevitable that their housing transitions will affect the real estate market.  But it seems spread out enough that the impact will be digested….at least at some price. There will probably be times when a few old homesteads in the same area are sold at the same time, but it should all even out in the long run.

The Baby Boom generation (1946-1964) has an enormous housing market footprint, inhabiting 32 million owner-occupied homes and accounting for two out of five homeowners in the United States with an estimated value of $13.5 trillion. And when they decide to divest, said Fannie Mae, Washington, D.C., the impact could spur fears of a “bursting generational housing bubble.”

In a report, The Coming Exodus of Older Homeowners, the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group said departures of these older adults from the homeownership market–for rentals, senior care facilities or by reason of death–will accelerate as the large Baby Boom generation continues to age.

“With the oldest Boomers now advancing into their 70s, the beginning of a mass exodus looms on the horizon, spurring fears of a bursting ‘generational housing bubble’ in which homeownership demand from younger generations is insufficient to fill the void left by multitudes of departing older owners,” wrote authors Dowell Myers, professor at the University of Southern California; and Patrick Simmons, Fannie Mae Director of Strategic Planning. Further, the authors warned a “fumbled” intergenerational handoff “would reverberate through the housing market and economy.”

(more…)

Inventory Watch

How’s the market?

The surge continued this past week, with the current pendings count rising from 302 to 324, which is a 7% increase. Last year, the pendings topped off the previous week and then dropped for four weeks. With this current burst, the pendings count is only seven percent behind last year.

The battle lines are drawn right around the $2 million mark, with the number of actives priced over $2,000,000 being 19% higher than in early January.

But the Under-$2,000,000 market looks great:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

List Price Range
Actives
Pendings
Actives/Pendings Ratio
$2,000,000-
415
235
1.8
$2,000,000+
474
95
5.0

There probably isn’t much trickle up? But the 5.0 isn’t bad, and the 95 pendings is a 53% increase from a month ago!

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(more…)

Rue Adriane Modern

dasMOD + The Brown Studio are proud to share this brand new, single-story gem, consciously crafted for function and livability with a focus on architectural details located at 2314 Rue Adriane in La Jolla.

Rue Adriane offers a sophisticated, highly curated new century modern white-water ocean view dwelling with incredible views of the La Jolla coastline.

Located on a large, flat cul-de-sac with white-water ocean views, the home features; 3,158SF interior living space/lot size of 12,095SF / 4BR / 3.5BA, including a guest suite with private entrance / 2-car garage / ~600SF of covered outdoor living space / ~ 900SF deck with heated infinity pool.

List Price: $4,895,000.00

Case Study House #23A

In the next blog post, I mention Case Study House #23A in La Jolla, which was granted national historic designation in July, 2013.

Here is some background from wiki:

The Case Study Houses were experiments in American residential architecture sponsored by Arts & Architecture magazine, which commissioned major architects of the day to design and build inexpensive and efficient model homes for the United States residential housing boom caused by the end of World War II and the return of millions of soldiers.

The program ran intermittently from 1945 until 1966. The first six houses were built by 1948 and attracted more than 350,000 visitors. While not all 36 designs were built, most of those that were constructed were built in Los Angeles, and one was built in San Rafael, Northern California and one in Phoenix, Arizona.

A number of the houses appeared in the magazine in iconic black-and-white photographs by architectural photographer Julius Shulman.

A review of the three houses built on Rue de Anne:

http://www.midcenturyhome.com/case-study-house-23/

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