by Jim the Realtor | Feb 26, 2025 | Same-House Sales
The Case-Shiller Index is such old news that I forgot all about it yesterday.
It looks like “pricing” started to flatten out earlier last year, which sets up the 1Q25 for small-ish gains:
In more-relevant news…..this date, February 26th, fell on a Monday in 2024. It allows us to compare the inventory on the same dates:
NSDCC Active Listings:
2024: 324
2025: 368 (+14%)
There are also 30 more in the Coming Soon bin, plus private exclusives at all brokerages. If we just add the Coming Soons to this year’s count, the YoY change is +23%.
The surge in listings is underway, but it’s just not that obvious yet. Stay tuned, and don’t be surprised if pricing is hot early, then flattens out by March or April.
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 28, 2025 | Same-House Sales
I use the non-seasonally adjusted index because our market doesn’t have much seasonality and because I think you can handle the truth. But for those who prefer the fluffed-up version, then know that the seasonally-adjusted SD index for November was +0.4%, month-over-month.
Will we end our losing streak next month?
Maybe – the market “picked up” after the election so pricing might reflect a slight gain in the December reading.
P.S. There are minuscule revisions every month – these are the most-recent calcs:
The psycho-babble:
“Annual house price gains continued to moderate in November, with sales prices in all nine Census divisions exhibiting slower pace of growth than a year earlier,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The slowdown in price growth is likely due to higher mortgage rates contributing to cooling demand.”
“With the exception of pockets of above-trend performance, national home prices are trending below historical averages,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Markets in New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago are well above norms, with New York leading the way. Unsurprisingly, the Northeast was the fastest growing region, averaging a 6.1% annual gain. However, markets out west and in once red-hot Florida are trending well below average growth. Tampa’s decline is the first annual drop for any market in over a year. Returns for the Tampa market and entire Southern region rank in the bottom quartile of historical annual gains, with data going back to 1988.
“Despite below-trend growth, our National Index hit its 18th consecutive all-time high on a seasonally adjusted basis,” Luke continued. “Again, with the exception of Tampa, all markets rose monthly with seasonal adjustment. With New York leading the nation for the seventh consecutive month and U.S. banks reporting strong Q4 earnings, this could set the Big Apple up as we close out the year.”
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 31, 2024 | Same-House Sales
The local market has been so hot since the election that the second-half losing streak may end prematurely, instead of declining through the rest of 2024.
I already said +5% for next year’s NSDCC appreciation, and all of it to be in the first quarter.
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
“New York once again reigns supreme as the fastest-growing housing market with annual returns over double the national average,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Two markets have dominated the top ranks with New York leading all markets the past six months and San Diego the six months prior. New York is the only market sitting at all-time highs and one of just three markets with gains on the month. Accounting for seasonal adjustments shows a broader rally across the country.
“Our National Index hit its 17th consecutive all-time high, and only two markets – Tampa and Cleveland – fell during the past month,” Luke continued. “The annual returns continue to post positive inflation-adjusted returns but are falling well short of the annualized gains experienced this decade. Markets in Florida and Arizona are rising, but not keeping up with inflation, and are well off the over 10% gains annually from 2020 to present. This has allowed other markets to catch up.
“With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement,” Luke continued. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.”
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 26, 2024 | 2025, Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales |
The year-end slide of the local non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index looks like it will last twice as long this year. In 2023, it was a relatively-brief three months, but this year the pricing turned in mid-summer.
Expect the same result in 2025 – the prime properties will fly off the market at premium prices and the junkers, OPTs, bad locations, and poorly-presented homes will languish through the second half of the year as they get picked over by the bargain hunters.
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally-Adjusted
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported monthly rises of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.
“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.
“We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,” Luke continued. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.”
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 24, 2024 | Same-House Sales
With the July index being a 3-month weighted average, this should be the last of the stronger readings of 2024 and the momentum should taper off for the rest of the year. I like using the non-seasonally adjusted index because we can handle the truth. The San Diego seasonally-adjusted index dropped 0.58% month-over-month.
Mid-Day Edit: The index is released on the last Tuesday of the month but I think it caught the S&P staff off guard because their dissemination of the data is still lagging. But finally on their webite they noted that the non-seasonally adjusted index DROPPED the 0.58%, not the seasonally-adjusted (which rose 0.12%).
From cnbc:
New York saw the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with prices climbing 9% in June, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively. Portland, Oregon, saw just a 0.8% annual rise in June, the smallest gain of the top cities.
Since housing affordability has been a major talking point in this election cycle, this month’s report also broke out home values by price tier, dividing each city’s market into three tiers. Looking just at large markets over the past five years, it found that 75% of the markets covered show low-price tiers rising faster than the overall market.
“For example, the lower tier of the Atlanta market has risen 18% faster than the middle- and higher-tiered homes,” Luke wrote in the release.
“New York’s low tier has the largest five-year outperformance, rising nearly 20% above the overall New York region,” he continued. “New York also has the largest divergence between low- and high-tier prices. Conversely, San Diego has seen the largest appreciation in higher-tier homes over the past five years.”
Prices in the overall San Diego market are up 72% in the past five years, but the high tier is up 79% versus 63% for the lower tier.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/27/home-prices-hit-record-high-in-june-on-sp-case-shiller-index.html
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 30, 2024 | Same-House Sales |
The local Case-Shiller Index has been surging lately but I think we’ll be lucky if the next reading is half of the 9.1% YoY gain we have here:
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
New York reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 9.4% increase in May, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with increases of 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching a 1.0% annual increase in May.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 26, 2024 | Same-House Sales |
San Diego has been the #1 market in America for the last six months! But the momentum is slowing (the previous blog post that showed +4.6% must have been for April-Jun).
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
The San Diego Case-Shiller Index is at an all-time high, and is 75% higher than it was in November, 2005 which was the peak before the GFC.
The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2%, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest annual gain among the 20 cities in April with a 10.3% increase this month, followed by New York and Chicago, with increases of 9.4% and 8.7%.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 24, 2024 | Same-House Sales
The local Case-Shiller will be released tomorrow, and if it’s in line with this data above, it’s going to help demonstrate how hot the market started in 2024.
If the market takes a breather for the rest of 2024, it should add fuel to the Spring 2025 Selling Season starting earlier (January) and hotter than ever – especially if rates are lower!
by Jim the Realtor | May 28, 2024 | Same-House Sales
The San Diego Case-Shiller Index is at an all-time high, and it’s 75% higher than it was in November, 2005 which was the peak before the GFC (this blog began in September, 2005).
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally Adjusted
“This month’s report boasts another all-time high,” says Brian D. Luke of S&P Dow Jones Indices. “We’ve witnessed records repeatedly break in both stock and housing markets over the past year.”
“San Diego stands out with an impressive 11.1% annual gain, followed closely by New York, Cleveland, and Los Angeles, indicating a strong demand for urban markets,” he said.
Prices grew slightly faster in San Francisco and Seattle than in San Diego in March, but those cities’ real estate markets has fallen further, and San Diego remains far ahead over the past 12 months.
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 30, 2024 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales |
San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally Adjusted
| Month |
San Diego CSI |
M-o-M chg |
Y-o-Y chg |
| Jan 22 |
384.13 |
+2.5% |
+27.2% |
| Feb |
401.44 |
+4.6% |
+28.9% |
| Mar |
416.45 |
+3.8% |
+29.9% |
| Apr |
425.90 |
+2.3% |
+28.5% |
| May |
427.80 |
+0.5% |
+25.2% |
| Jun |
424.83 |
-0.7% |
+21.6% |
| Jul |
414.03 |
-2.6% |
+16.5% |
| Aug |
402.48 |
-2.8% |
+12.7% |
| Sep |
393.80 |
-2.1% |
+9.5% |
| Oct |
390.61 |
-0.7% |
+7.6% |
| Nov |
385.40 |
-1.5% |
+4.9% |
| Dec |
380.09 |
-1.3% |
+1.6% |
| Jan 23 |
378.79 |
-0.4% |
-1.3% |
| Feb |
384.46 |
+1.6% |
-4.1% |
| Mar |
394.05 |
+2.5% |
-5.3% |
| Apr |
401.90 |
+2.0% |
-5.7% |
| May |
409.32 |
+1.9% |
-4.3% |
| Jun |
413.72 |
+1.1% |
-2.3% |
| Jul |
416.68 |
+0.7% |
+0.6% |
| Aug |
419.08 |
+0.5% |
+4.1% |
| Sep |
419.35 |
+0.0% |
+6.4% |
| Oct |
418.82 |
-0.1% |
+7.2% |
| Nov |
416.36 |
-0.6% |
+8.0% |
| Dec |
413.45 |
-0.7% |
+8.8% |
| Jan 24 |
421.34 |
+1.9% |
+11.2% |
| Feb |
428.26 |
+1.6% |
+11.4% |
The local Case-Shiller Index is back to the peak of May, 2022!
The next two readings will likely be +2.0% month-over-month.
The 20- City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.4% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Detroit , with an increase of 8.9%. Portland, though still holding the lowest rank after reporting two consecutive months of the smallest year-over-year growth, had a significant increase in annual gain of 2.2% in February.
