Hat tip to CBMark to sending in this gem – it’s only $599,999 and open today!
The problem with the hoarder home is more than just the mess inside and outside.
The hoarder home owner “harasses the children of my best friend, which is directly across the street from my house. Anybody that goes against her—she throws terror underneath their feet to get her way,” said Mead.
Last March, a San Diego city inspector went to the home. According to CBS8, Inspector Justin Welker found trash piles as high as 4 feet, rotting food, and signs of “rodent infestation.”
“Words cannot adequately describe the condition of the master toilet,” he wrote in his report. “It was smeared with brown filth and the stall floor covered in trash.”
He went on to describe the exterior: “The in-ground pool was partially filled with green water, presumably algae, which is a potential breeding ground for vectors, such as mosquitos.”
During that time, the homeowner also appeared in front of a civil court judge who was supposed to decide whether or not to send a court-appointed receiver to the property to clean it up, but the homeowner’s request for a continuance was granted.
The investigation by CBS8 found court filings dating to 2009.
Realtor.com has uncovered a recent anonymous complaint sent to the San Diego Police Department describing a “court ordered, sealed up hoarder home now taken over by homeless.” It was reported on Oct. 18, 2024. Realtor.com has reached out to the SDPD for more information.
They are saying that in the expensive coastal markets there are fewer empty-nesters, but they base that opinion on the percentages? The San Diego metro of 3.3 million x 13% = 429,000 empty-nesters sounds significant to me!
Some have suggested that empty nest households – those aged 55 and older living with no children with at least two extra bedrooms and in place for at least a decade – could eventually flood the housing market with their homes and help make homes more affordable. However, data indicates that this demographic is unlikely to make a meaningful impact over the coming years, especially in the most expensive markets.
Nationwide, there were roughly 20.9 million of these empty nest households in 2022, up modestly from 20.2 million in 2017.
All else equal, in order for empty nest households to make a meaningful contribution to lowering house prices, their numbers must exceed the number of families that currently need their own housing and those that will want or need homes in the future. In addition, because relative affordability varies so widely across the country, this potential supply of homes would need to be concentrated in markets with the worst housing shortages to make a dent. Unfortunately, this future supply coming from empty-nest households doesn’t line up with the areas of greatest need on the map.
The number of empty nest households does exceed the number of families in need of housing: by 2.6 times.
There were 20.9 million empty nest households in 2022 compared to 8.1 million families living with non-relatives that were likely in need of their own unit, and that surplus has grown over time. From 2017 to 2022, the number of families doubling up — living with non-relatives — grew by 500,821. During that same period, the number of empty nest households increased by 703,892.
The problem: Most empty nest households can be found in already relatively more affordable markets. These are areas where housing is already more available, the rate of doubling up with non-relatives is much lower, and they’re located far from where the crush of current young workers choose to live.
A flood of currently owner-occupied homes hitting the market as their current owners pass away or otherwise vacate their homes will NOT solve housing affordability challenges, especially in high demand housing markets.
A silver tsunamiis likely to have a larger impact in regions like Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Younger residents have tended to leave these areas to pursue better job opportunities elsewhere, leaving older generations to make up a larger share of those who remain. Young workers choose to live near productive job centers and on the coasts, areas that have much lower populations of older retired individuals holding back housing supply in the first place.
Among the 50 largest metropolitan areas, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland were the markets with the largest gap between the potential housing supply from empty nest households and potential demand from younger residents. But these are already relatively more affordable markets with fewer home buying age workers to begin with.
In expensive coastal markets with strong job centers where home buying age workers choose to live — like Austin, Seattle and Denver — there are fewer empty nest households to begin with.
As a result, the impact of a future increase in supply coming from the existing housing stock owned by older individuals would likely have a smaller impact on affordability in expensive high demand coastal markets. Without the promise of remote work or investments that improve work prospects and raise the desirability of Midwest markets, it is unlikely that we will see a big shift in migration patterns towards markets full of empty nesters.
Rather, the fix for affordability challenges remains a strong supply expansion coming from newly built homes. Zillow research shows that housing shortages were the most severe in markets with more land use restrictions. In addition to promoting denser construction, removing barriers to homeownership that aren’t related to income — credit assistance programs, down payment assistance or help with closing costs, for example — would likely improve access to homeownership.
Meredith is at it again……predicting the silver tsunami. She doesn’t present any evidence or data to prove it’s happening or when or where it will happen. She’s just getting paid for being an ivory-tower doomer:
In fact, the article pretty much rebuffs the whole idea (hat tip to ‘just some guy’ for sending this in):
Approximately 79% of homes in the US are owned by people aged 65 and older. Aging in place is fine, but many of the more-affluent seniors are opting for luxury accommodations and paying a hefty price – and there is no shortage of demand. The better units at La Costa Glen have a three-year wait list – plan ahead! From the WSJ:
In the heart of Silicon Valley, well-off baby boomers enjoy meals of porchetta and cheesy polenta, prepared with herbs plucked from the community garden. Thirty-foot-tall windows offer a view on a quiet creek winding along manicured grounds.
Spending later years at this community, Vi at Palo Alto, comes with a price tag that starts with an upfront payment that can range from $1.17 million for a one-bedroom apartment and up to $7.3 million for a three-bedroom unit. Ongoing monthly fees up to $13,800 cover services such as housekeeping and valet parking, and amenities. Residents can attend lectures by professors of nearby Stanford University or a performance by opera singers.
For wealthier Americans, greater options exist for how to spend their later years. A growing crop of high-end communities, called life plan communities, allow residents to start in an apartment and then move to more nursing-like care as they age. Occupancy rates are rising, with the rate in the independent living units above 80% today, according to NIC MAP Vision, a data source for senior housing research.
Resident contracts typically work like a membership and, depending on terms, lock in rates so that costs don’t escalate when higher levels of care are needed. Inclusive care contracts come with higher upfront fees, but allow customers to sidestep having to find, and pay for, different levels of care as they age.
Many baby boomers who watched parents or friends struggle to age in their homes—and scramble to find nursing or home healthcare—say they are determined to do things differently, for their own peace of mind and that of their children.
“It’s a gift to our kids,” says Virginia Pollard, who lives with her husband, David, at Vi at Palo Alto.
Finding the right life plan or continuing care retirement community is like looking at colleges, say residents. The ideal is a place that feels personally comfortable, whether in the city or country, and where they can be among others with similar accomplishments and interests.
Kendal Corp. has life care communities near Oberlin College in Ohio and Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y. The Forest at Duke neighbors Duke University. Like colleges, they often have wait lists.
Ron Litvak, 66, a retired lawyer in Denver, says he and his wife are on two wait lists, one for a premier life planning community in Denver and another for La Costa Glenin Carlsbad, Calif., and plans to get units in each.
As the boomer estate sales become the dominant source of homes for sale, their buyers can expect to do some work. In most cases, there will be a lot to do!
Why don’t more celebrities do this? They are used to being in front of the camera!
Alec Baldwin’s Hamptons home, first listed for $29 million in September, 2022, has returned to the market at $18.995 million, touting the rarity that the five-acre property in Amagansett’s Estate Section can accommodate two large residences.
The U.S. Census Bureau released a report showing that about 4 million U.S. households with an adult age 65 or older had difficulty living in or using some features of their home.
About 50 million, or 40 percent, of U.S. homes had what were considered to be the most basic, aging-ready features: a step-free entryway into the home and a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor.
About 4 million or 11 percent of older households reported difficulty living in or using their home. The share increased to nearly 25 percent among households with a resident age 85 or older.
Older homeowners tended to be aware of their home’s accessibility shortcomings – they just don’t do anything about them. Most older households did not plan to renovate to make their home more aging accessible – only about 6 percent of homeowners with at least one person aged 65 or older had plans for home improvement projects to make their home more accessible for people with physical limitations. For the oldest households (one person over 85 years old), this proportion increased to 9.1 percent.
If you are going to make one last move, do it when you are younger/healthy and can handle it. We just spent the last two days helping my uncle go through his ‘stuff’, and it’s amazing how much accumulates over time!
During the Yahoo Finance Invest Conference, Meredith Whitney, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis and became known as “the Oracle of Wall Street,” said that housing prices will fall in 2024 due to a “silver tsunami” of baby boomers who are expected to downsize in the coming years.
More than 30 million units of housing are expected to be brought onto the market as 51% of people over 50, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, downsize to smaller homes.
It’s been a challenging time for hopeful homebuyers amid soaring prices and mortgage rates, but a little bit of good news might be around the corner.
Highlighting estimates from AARP, Whitney said that over 51% of individuals aged 50 and above, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, are projected to move into smaller residences. This downsizing trend could result in over 30 million units of housing being brought onto the market.
Every year another expert rages on about the silver tsunami, mostly based on antiquated beliefs that seniors will all downsize – but it’s different now, especially around San Diego.
If seniors are downsizing, they need to leave town to make it worth moving. Here’s how the local populations have changed in a recent 2-year period – it’s hardly been an exodus, and it also suggests that there are new incoming residents who are filling the gap:
The author has been writing about housing for 3+ years, and has already identified the key topic. Even though the houses owned by boomers might be in superior locations, they are dated and in need of repairs and improvements. While she thinks fixers will become popular again, it will only be those that are appropriately discounted. During the frenzy, no discount was needed, now it’s around 10%, and soon it will be 20% or more as the group of two-story fixers grows faster. The market is dividing into four quadrants; one-story, two-story, creampuffs, and fixers.
The number of people 80 years of age or older is expected to more than double between 2022 and 2040, increasing from 13 million to 28 million. As the baby boomer generation ages into their 80s, starting slowly in the late 2020s and picking up speed in the 2030s, they will likely begin downsizing and selling their homes, putting more housing supply on the market.
However, many of the homes being sold by baby boomers will need some work. Approximately 942,000 single-family homes owned by a head of household that is over the age of 60 are considered “inadequate” dwellings, according to the 2021 American Housing Survey (AHS). The AHS definition for an “inadequate” dwelling includes units with severe defects such as a lack of electricity or hot water, insufficient heating during the winter, or water leaks. That still leaves approximately 32 million single-family homes considered “adequate” in 2021. Of those, approximately 11 million were in the top 25 U.S. metropolitan areas, including 1.5 million units in New York, 852,000 in Los Angeles, and 490,000 in Washington, D.C.
Even so, many of the structures considered adequate would still likely need updating and remodeling to be brought up to date and be attractive to potential buyers. Given the highly sought-after locations of these housing units, there will likely be buyers willing to spend the money needed for updating and remodeling. Somewhat by default, the fixer-upper will be popular again.
The demographics for home buying will remain very favorable in the coming years. Today, the housing market suffers from a shortage of housing inventory—a deficit of approximately 2 million housing units in early 2023—due to a combination of decade-long underbuilding and a demographic wave of demand from millennial home buyers. However, the generation behind the millennials, Generation Z, is smaller in size and will likely require fewer housing units. Over the next decade, as baby boomers age out of homeownership, the housing shortage may narrow and eventually disappear. Demographic trends dictate long-run demand and supply in the housing market and, though they may move slowly, they are hard to outrun.
They calculated that baby boomers provided 4.41 million of the 7.74 million homes for sale in 2019 (57%). Now that younger homeowners are locked into their forever home, it’s likely that the percentage of estate sales will rise dramatically – but only because there will be so few sales from other categories.
Complicating the flow is the amount of surviving spouses that stay in the home. The red band in the graph above looks like it’s around 1/3 of the total number of deaths of homeowners, which means we really need to wait until BOTH boomers die before seeing those homes get into the supply of homes for sale.
This is going to take decades to sort out!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The baby boomers will be riding into the sunset in the next few decades, leaving behind a surplus of houses.
But a study by the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted the impact of the “Silver Tsunami” will be more glacial and easily absorbed by the market.
Edward Seiler, the institute’s executive director and the MBA’s assistant vice president for housing economics, said the study shows a detailed picture of America’s aging population and its effect on the housing market.
“The impact from baby boomers exiting their homes is not insignificant but will happen over a few decades without significantly disrupting the housing market,” Seiler said.
Findings from the report included:
“Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, boomer homeowners numbered 32 million and represented almost 41% of all homeowners.”
“The baby boomers eventually will die. Their housing will become available for others or other uses.”
“Some estimates suggest that one-quarter of current owner-occupied homes will come on the market by 2040, as older Americans transition out of owner-occupied housing and eventually die.”
“Projected deaths rise steadily as the baby boomers age and eventually die, then plateau around 2045. By 2060, the tail end of the baby boom will be 95 or older.”
“Overall, housing supply and demand shifts from changing demographics are slow moving and highly predictable, which suggests that there will not be measurable effects on house price growth from population aging and mortality.”
“Over the next decade … most of the adjustment to aging and mortality will be through a reduction in the growth of new housing and some softness in the rental market.”
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
jesus a sahagun
2024-11-10
Verified
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SabihaPasha
2024-07-22
Verified
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
dodyfrancis
2024-07-10
Verified
I appreciate Jim & Donna's great teamwork, sound advice, and guidance that eased the stress of selling our Carlsbad home. Their professional input and assistance throughout the process was very helpful. Highly recommended!
sbisachsen
2024-07-10
Verified
The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
user19164788
2024-06-21
Verified
We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
cali4neal
2024-05-07
Verified
We had a wonderful experience buying our home with Donna and Jim! In particular I was very impressed with their efficiency and support through the purchase process. As we were doing the walk through, Donna started contacting roofers, plumbers, aircon, electricians, etc for all the areas we needed potential repairs - by the time we were done with the walk through appointments were already set up to get estimates for all the major services. When we had to change an appointment, or couldn't make one, Donna was there to arrange things to fit our schedule. Even after we closed on our home, Donna helped set up the repairs we needed before move in day. They truly went above and beyond to deliver exceptional service. I'll be calling them for our next home!
zuser20160809095816651
2024-03-16
Verified
The sale of our home exceeded our expectations - Jim and Donna Klinge are the best!
We’ve followed Jim’s Bubbleinfo blog since the 2006 housing bubble. After he helped us buy in 2017 we stayed in touch and Team Klinge were the obvious choice when it came time to move. They guided us through the preparation of the house, including a kitchen refresh - Donna and Lisa skillfully managed the various contractors for us after we had moved out of state. Donna’s excellent attention to detail and regular communication made the whole process run smoothly from a distance.
Jim’s market knowledge, expert negotiating skills and candid opinions, together with Donna’s responsive communications and problem solving, set them in a league of their own.
Highly recommended!
bourmakin
2024-02-09
Verified
Jim and Donna have exceeded my expectations with sale of my house. It was best experience with house sale. Professional, responsive, superior negotiating skills. I would recommend them with 5 star (I would give them even more than max) rating. Sale of my house was closed for really good price in 10 days. Jim and Donna perfectly handled house preparation for sale. Thanks a lot!!!
user1916779
2023-11-17
Verified
Jim and Donna have exceeded my expectations and made my most recent move back to California go so much more smoothly than I expected. Jim’s Bubbleinfo blog was full of useful information about the current market conditions. His experience helped us make a successful offer for the home we wanted in a desirable neighborhood. After the purchase Donna organized the work we needed done in the house without us having to make an additional trip. We were pretty worried when we started searching for real estate that not being in the area was going to makes things really difficult but Jim and Donna made the process so much easier. I enthusiastically recommend them.
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