Alec Baldwin Pitches His House For Sale

Why don’t more celebrities do this? They are used to being in front of the camera!

Alec Baldwin’s Hamptons home, first listed for $29 million in September, 2022, has returned to the market at $18.995 million, touting the rarity that the five-acre property in Amagansett’s Estate Section can accommodate two large residences.

Ready For Aging?

Do you think getting old is hard?

The U.S. Census Bureau released a report showing that about 4 million U.S. households with an adult age 65 or older had difficulty living in or using some features of their home.

About 50 million, or 40 percent, of U.S. homes had what were considered to be the most basic, aging-ready features: a step-free entryway into the home and a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor.

About 4 million or 11 percent of older households reported difficulty living in or using their home. The share increased to nearly 25 percent among households with a resident age 85 or older.

Older homeowners tended to be aware of their home’s accessibility shortcomings – they just don’t do anything about them. Most older households did not plan to renovate to make their home more aging accessible – only about 6 percent of homeowners with at least one person aged 65 or older had plans for home improvement projects to make their home more accessible for people with physical limitations. For the oldest households (one person over 85 years old), this proportion increased to 9.1 percent.

If you are going to make one last move, do it when you are younger/healthy and can handle it. We just spent the last two days helping my uncle go through his ‘stuff’, and it’s amazing how much accumulates over time!

Boomer Liquidations In 2024?

During the Yahoo Finance Invest Conference, Meredith Whitney, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis and became known as “the Oracle of Wall Street,” said that housing prices will fall in 2024 due to a “silver tsunami” of baby boomers who are expected to downsize in the coming years.

More than 30 million units of housing are expected to be brought onto the market as 51% of people over 50, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, downsize to smaller homes.

It’s been a challenging time for hopeful homebuyers amid soaring prices and mortgage rates, but a little bit of good news might be around the corner.

Highlighting estimates from AARP, Whitney said that over 51% of individuals aged 50 and above, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, are projected to move into smaller residences. This downsizing trend could result in over 30 million units of housing being brought onto the market.

Every year another expert rages on about the silver tsunami, mostly based on antiquated beliefs that seniors will all downsize – but it’s different now, especially around San Diego.

If seniors are downsizing, they need to leave town to make it worth moving. Here’s how the local populations have changed in a recent 2-year period – it’s hardly been an exodus, and it also suggests that there are new incoming residents who are filling the gap:

More on Boomer Housing

The author has been writing about housing for 3+ years, and has already identified the key topic. Even though the houses owned by boomers might be in superior locations, they are dated and in need of repairs and improvements. While she thinks fixers will become popular again, it will only be those that are appropriately discounted. During the frenzy, no discount was needed, now it’s around 10%, and soon it will be 20% or more as the group of two-story fixers grows faster. The market is dividing into four quadrants; one-story, two-story, creampuffs, and fixers.

The number of people 80 years of age or older is expected to more than double between 2022 and 2040, increasing from 13 million to 28 million. As the baby boomer generation ages into their 80s, starting slowly in the late 2020s and picking up speed in the 2030s, they will likely begin downsizing and selling their homes, putting more housing supply on the market.

However, many of the homes being sold by baby boomers will need some work. Approximately 942,000 single-family homes owned by a head of household that is over the age of 60 are considered “inadequate” dwellings, according to the 2021 American Housing Survey (AHS). The AHS definition for an “inadequate” dwelling includes units with severe defects such as a lack of electricity or hot water, insufficient heating during the winter, or water leaks. That still leaves approximately 32 million single-family homes considered “adequate” in 2021. Of those, approximately 11 million were in the top 25 U.S. metropolitan areas, including 1.5 million units in New York, 852,000 in Los Angeles, and 490,000 in Washington, D.C.

Even so, many of the structures considered adequate would still likely need updating and remodeling to be brought up to date and be attractive to potential buyers. Given the highly sought-after locations of these housing units, there will likely be buyers willing to spend the money needed for updating and remodeling. Somewhat by default, the fixer-upper will be popular again.

The demographics for home buying will remain very favorable in the coming years. Today, the housing market suffers from a shortage of housing inventory—a deficit of approximately 2 million housing units in early 2023—due to a combination of decade-long underbuilding and a demographic wave of demand from millennial home buyers. However, the generation behind the millennials, Generation Z, is smaller in size and will likely require fewer housing units. Over the next decade, as baby boomers age out of homeownership, the housing shortage may narrow and eventually disappear. Demographic trends dictate long-run demand and supply in the housing market and, though they may move slowly, they are hard to outrun.

Silver Glacier

They calculated that baby boomers provided 4.41 million of the 7.74 million homes for sale in 2019 (57%). Now that younger homeowners are locked into their forever home, it’s likely that the percentage of estate sales will rise dramatically – but only because there will be so few sales from other categories. 

Complicating the flow is the amount of surviving spouses that stay in the home. The red band in the graph above looks like it’s around 1/3 of the total number of deaths of homeowners, which means we really need to wait until BOTH boomers die before seeing those homes get into the supply of homes for sale.

This is going to take decades to sort out!


The baby boomers will be riding into the sunset in the next few decades, leaving behind a surplus of houses.

But a study by the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted the impact of the “Silver Tsunami” will be more glacial and easily absorbed by the market.

Edward Seiler, the institute’s executive director and the MBA’s assistant vice president for housing economics, said the study shows a detailed picture of America’s aging population and its effect on the housing market.

“The impact from baby boomers exiting their homes is not insignificant but will happen over a few decades without significantly disrupting the housing market,” Seiler said.

Findings from the report included:

  • “Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, boomer homeowners numbered 32 million and represented almost 41% of all homeowners.”
  • “The baby boomers eventually will die. Their housing will become available for others or other uses.”
  • “Some estimates suggest that one-quarter of current owner-occupied homes will come on the market by 2040, as older Americans transition out of owner-occupied housing and eventually die.”
  • “Projected deaths rise steadily as the baby boomers age and eventually die, then plateau around 2045. By 2060, the tail end of the baby boom will be 95 or older.”
  • “Overall, housing supply and demand shifts from changing demographics are slow moving and highly predictable, which suggests that there will not be measurable effects on house price growth from population aging and mortality.”
  • “Over the next decade … most of the adjustment to aging and mortality will be through a reduction in the growth of new housing and some softness in the rental market.”
Link to MBA Report

Selling The Inherited Home

Will there be fewer sales in California due to kids moving into inherited homes? Or could there be more sales, due to the high home values and the difficulty of paying off the other siblings? Hat tip to the WSJ!

One of the first things people do when they inherit their parents’ home these days is put up a for-sale sign.

Deciding what to do with a family property is often both an emotional and financial decision, but the rising costs of renovations, property taxes and utilities are making it harder for adult children to hold on to the real estate, financial advisers say. Higher home prices and mortgage rates have often also made it impractical for heirs to buy out their siblings, said Dick Stoner, a Realtor in Rockville, Md.

The high home prices of the past few years have made the decision to sell even more attractive. If inheritors can unload a house in a hot location for a high price, the proceeds from the home’s sale can help secure their finances and fund goals such as retirement, advisers say.

“For inheritors, cash is king,” said Paige Wilbur, Wells Fargo’s head of estate services.

Leaving a home to children remains a common way to transfer wealth, according to financial advisers and estate planners. There is no recent data that tracks home inheritance nationally.

More than three-quarters of parents plan to leave a home to their children when they die, according to a 2023 Charles Schwab survey of more than 700 American investors between the ages of 27 and 95. Some children may be reluctant to sell for sentimental reasons, but finances and simplicity of unloading a property often win out. Nearly 70% of those who expect to inherit a home from their parents plan to sell it, the survey found.

Read the full article here:

Link to Free Article

Blame Bubble on the Millennials Now?

The doomers will love this article but no mention of heirs living in their inherited family home, instead of selling it – which around here should be a significant group:

Millennials are fueling a generational housing bubble that’s set to burst over the next decade as demand for homes falls off, according to researchers.

In a recent report from the Indiana University Center for Real Estate Studies and the Indiana Business Research Center, researchers said Millennials — who are between their mid-20s and early-40s, are in the prime-homebuying age — have pushed up home prices in recent years as demand outweighs supply.

But the situation will start to reverse over the next decade, as Baby Boomers begin age out of the housing market. Meanwhile, post-Millennial generations will be smaller as population growth slows.

That could lead to an excess of housing, potentially pushing down prices and sparking a crash in the real estate sector.

“Plainly put – a generational housing bubble is on the horizon. New housing built now to meet strong demand may sit vacant in a decade. Demand reversal will intensify by the mid-2030s, when the annual number of homes that seniors add back to the market is expected to be 40% higher than current levels,” researchers said.

The could be offset by policies that encourage seniors to age at home instead of nursing facilities, ease first-time home purchases, or boost immigration, the report added.

But population trends indicate that many housing markets will peak in the next decade, it cautioned.

“As Millennials pass through their first-home buying years and Baby Boomers through their last stages of life, the current period of strong demand will transition into a period of slowly declining demand,” the report said. “The industry must adjust current business decisions to this eventual changeover in market conditions or risk substantial oversupply and value loss in the housing market of the future.”

In the short term, industry experts have floated the possibility of a housing rebound over the coming year.

Home prices climbed month-per-month in February for the first time in seven months, according to the Case-Shiller data, and Goldman Sachs predicted prices could stop crashing as soon as mid-2023.

Inventory Watch

There are only 88 pending listings today, which means we are unlikely to get up to 100 sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad this month.

How radically different is that?  Here’s how this month will compare to the previous Januarys of interest:

NSDCC Detached-Home January Sales & Listings

January Year
Number of Sales
Number of New Listings
2023 – projected

Discard all previous assumptions, and prepare for market conditions that we have never seen before.

I might leave this fact on every blog post this year, because it probably matters most:

There are over 76 million American baby boomers. All will be 65 years or older….IN EIGHT YEARS.


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