Boomer Liquidation Sale On Hold

The baby boomer liquidation sale has failed to materialize….so far.  Boomers are holding onto their old homes longer, and living the good life instead:

LINK

Baby boomers are not leaving the homes they own to settle into apartments, as housing economists had predicted.

A new edition of Fannie Mae Housing Insights says that boomers are not responsible for a recent surge in the apartment market. But when they do finally downsize, the very size of the generation will be enough to “move markets.”

Predictions were that boomers, the generation born between 1946 and 1965 (some sources say 1964), would begin downsizing naturally as they became older and more frail. “The research showed that the likelihood of Baby Boomers occupying single-family homes has changed little in recent years, despite the factor that boomers are experiencing major life changes that might be expected to cause a downshift in their housing consumption,” the Fannie Mae article said.

Instead, through 2013, boomers had not significantly reduced the rate at which they live in single-family, detached houses, the agency said. And although the number of rooms in those houses has decreased in recent years, “boomer home size has increased since then, suggesting the boomers are not trading down to smaller single-family homes, either.”

The article added that the “number of boomer apartment dwellers has not budged in recent years, whereas the number of millennials in multifamily rental units has grown by nearly half a million annually.”

That’s a significant finding with big implications for the housing market, because “boomers have an enormous residential footprint.” Some 40 percent of the nation’s homes are occupied by boomers, who have “half of the nation’s housing wealth,” Fannie Mae said.

As baby boomers move into their retirement years, they’re having a major impact in other ways, too.

“After working most of their lives, Baby Boomers want it all in retirement: travel, dining out, owning two cars and multiple homes. And they want to do this off of income generated by their investments,” said a recent article in Wall Street Daily. “Yet you’d be amazed how many people go to see an advisor with far too little in savings or investments to enjoy that sort of retirement. Even those people who have enough assets often have them allocated extremely poorly.”

Some boomers have accumulated no savings for retirement, the article said.

Read full article here:

LINK

Inventory Watch

No big drop off in inventory yet – just four fewer listings today than there was a month ago. It happened like that last year too, just a 1% drop between the end of July and the end of August.

In 2014, the inventory was steady through September, and then only declined 6% by the end of October.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Sandicor Sanctions

This was included in the NSDCAR weekly update today:

MLS Rule Sanctions are on the Rise – Avoid Being Sanctioned by Sandicor
Below are just a few of the most common rules that MLS subscribers are sited with.
  • People and For Sale signs are not allowed to be shown in pictures
  • Photos should be from the subject property.
  • Cancelled or withdrawn listings must wait 30 days before entering as new.
  • Avoid disclaimers in the remarks section, such as “buyer to verify all information” or sold as is

But how many times have we heard that realtors adhere to a strict code of ethics?  Not just a code of ethics, but a STRICT code of ethics?

Why would you need to warn agents about breaking the rules?

Chinese Buying to Accelerate?

chinese

Excerpted from an article in BI:

Chang’s client is one of the group of wealthy Chinese caught in between a rock and a hard place: Leave their assets in China to potentially weather additional market volatility and yuan devaluations — or put it in real estate that is now more expensive than just a few weeks earlier.

“Lots of my clients have been hit heavily by the equity market,” Chang, who was once a vice president at HSBC’s private bank, told Business Insider through a series of interviews. “But that only makes them more determined to diversify out of China.”

The chaos of the past few weeks is likely to lead to an acceleration in the rate of real-estate purchases by wealthy Chinese buyers in the US and elsewhere.

Chinese individuals are also being actively encouraged to buy abroad by the government.

Thus far, Chinese individuals have been allowed to convert $50,000 into other currencies annually — though there are ways to skirt the regulation.

That is about to change, with the Chinese government readying the launch of the Qualified Domestic Individual Investor program.

The QDII2 is an overseas-investment scheme that would allow Chinese citizens to invest overseas directly. Those with at least $160,000 in financial assets qualify.

The program is likely to launch this year and will bolster overseas real-estate purchases on the part of the Chinese.

“With QDII2 in mind, within five years we might look back and think of the current levels of Chinese cross-border investment as quaint,” Andrew Taylor, co-CEO of Juwai.com, a website that helps Chinese to buy properties abroad.

Read full article here:

LINK

Restricting McMansions

 

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From the Union-Tribune:

Encinitas will explore ways curb the construction of oversized homes that neighbors call “McMansions,” while attempting to balance the rights of property owners.

Councilman Tony Kranz, who brought the idea forward at a council meeting Wednesday night, said that people who own smaller homes in the city’s older neighborhoods shouldn’t have to worry that someone will buy a neighboring home, demolish it, and then build a new structure that towers over all the other houses.

“I just don’t think that’s good for the community,” he said.

His proposal to restrict home sizes divided the council on Wednesday. Council members voted 3-2, with Mayor Kristin Gaspar and Mark Muir opposed, to direct the Planning Commission to explore the idea and bring back some recommendations.

Councilwoman Lisa Shaffer, who voted with the majority, said she supported the concept, but had some concerns about whether the proposed new restrictions might impact home remodeling projects as well as new home construction. If a couple wants to build an addition to their home to accommodate their growing family, they’re not going to be happy if the city bans them from doing so, she said.

Gaspar said she and Shaffer were on the same side when it came to that issue, adding that restrictions limiting home sizes will outrage many property owners.

“The moment you start suddenly talking about decreasing a homeowner’s property value, we’re going to have some problems, I can tell you that,” she said. “So, I would say tread lightly on any ordinance that you’re looking to put in place.”

Read full article here:

LINK

Real Estate and Wall Street

record territory

An article from the latimes.com trying to scare up some fear about the stock market woes this week, with a couple of good quotes about China:

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-socal-housing-20150829-story.html

An excerpt:

Tom Berge Jr., president of the West San Gabriel Valley Assn. of Realtors, has had a different experience. He said three or four Chinese business owners looking to invest in homes have raised concerns to him over economic turmoil in China. But it wasn’t because they might no longer be able to afford local real estate.

“Their fear is the government is going to limit the money that can freely move out of China,” he said.

Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics, believes that slowing growth abroad won’t slow investment because Chinese residents will become more inclined to move money into what they consider a safe investment.

“If anything, this is only going to intensify the push to get money out of China,” he said.

http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-socal-housing-20150829-story.html

Low Inventory Driving Markets

sf

Could prices keep going higher?  Yes, due to the lack of inventory.  It is a game-changer that we haven’t experienced before – usually as prices rise to new levels, sellers tend to flood the market to get out at the top.

Not this time.

Our local NSDCC inventory has been steady – no big rush by sellers to cash in, mostly because they have nowhere to go that is any better.

NSDCC Total Detached-Home Listings, Jan 1 to Aug 15

2004:  3,671

2005:  3,706

2006:  4,369

2007:  3,823

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2012:  3,151

2013:  3,471

2014:  3,403

2015:  3,474

Could it continue?  Yes, it could.  We all know about how the San Francisco market has been fetching extraordinary prices.  Yet, their inventory is not exploding – instead, it’s going down.

From the WSJ:

A scarcity of listings is sending prices to new highs. In June, the number of new listings in San Francisco was down 23.1% from a year prior, according to the San Francisco Association of Realtors. The average listing spent 26 days on the market, compared with 31 days in June 2014. Median sales prices were up to $1.177 million—a 12.1% jump from a year ago. Real-estate agents say bidding wars are most common on properties priced below $2.5 million, and that buyers often make offers on numerous properties—anywhere from two to 20—before finally winning one.

Read the full story here, with many bidding-war examples:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-san-franciscos-bidding-wars-home-prices-go-ballistic-1440683103

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