The real estate market was boisterous in last half of 2020, which made it easy to predict that once we got past the election and into the new year we’d probably see the Greatest Real Estate Frenzy Ever.
Let’s use February 22nd as the day the frenzy really kicked in.
It was the day that this home was listed for sale, after a troubled past:
2005: $679,000 Sold (vacant lot)
2007: $550,000 Sold (vacant lot)
2008: $2,000,000 borrowed from WaMu
2009: House built
2015: $2,137,500 WaMu/Chase FORECLOSED
2016: $1,930,000 Sold
2018: $2,875,000 listed for sale for the next 18 months
2019: $2,044,000 Borrowed in January
2019: $2,225,000 last list price before FORECLOSED
Let’s review how some listing agents have been handling their bidding wars in 2021.
Ignored a $60,000 non-refundable deposit and took an offer that was $40,000 lower.
Once they get to the highest offer, they insert their own buyer at the same price.
Let an escalation clause determine the winner, and ignore the others.
Counter for highest-and-best, then pick a winner before everyone responds.
Not respond at all.
There are no rules. No guidelines. No laws.
The best our association can do is to issue a spreadsheet form.
Thus, anything goes.
Here’s how I handle it.
The home on Galena Canyon had originally listed for $1,599,000 and had 25 showings and six offers over the first weekend in March. We had three buyers (one was contingent) who were willing to pay around $1,750,000, so I asked the two non-contingent buyers to make their second highest-and-best offer to determine the winner – which they did, and $1,770,000 won it. I changed the list price in the MLS to $1,770,000, and marked it pending.
Last Friday morning, the buyer had an unforeseen glitch, and we fell out of escrow. We go back on the open market for Easter weekend, hoping for the best – knowing that the urgency is much higher when the listing is new and fresh.
I had added this to the confidential remarks:
Since we hit the market, these have happened: 16175 Deer Ridge 3,451sf closed for $1,775,000 on March 1st. 15288 Cayenne Creek 3,877sf closed for $1,800,000 on March 30th. 16342 Cayenne Creek 3,446sf pending, listed for $1,825,000. 9716 Wren Bluff 3,780sf pending, listed for $1,835,000. Plus Mark listed one for $2,795,000 around the corner. Built-in equity!
This time, we had six showings and three offers over list, which I thought was pretty good.
I had told the agents to make their highest-and-best offer, and while they were all competitive, I thought there might be more gas in the tank. So I politely asked all three to H&B again, and one emerged from the others by packing another $40,000 onto their first offer.
We are in escrow at $1,840,000, after starting at $1,599,000 a month ago.
Isn’t that the result you’d like to see for yourself, or someone you know?
It is not a given how listing agents handle a bidding war. Most agents just grab their favorite, and turn off their phone. You deserve better.
If you, or someone you know, is thinking of selling, I’d sure appreciate a call!
Did you get concerned about the pending index falling another 10% last week?
The U.S. housing market is suffering from its lowest supply in history, and that is taking an increasingly hard toll on sales.
Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year.
“The demand for a home purchase is widespread, multiple offers are prevalent, and days-on-market are swift,” said the Realtor’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun. “But contracts are not clicking due to record-low inventory.”
The pendings between La Jolla and Carlsbad are doing just fine. In spite of the total number of NSDCC homes for sale being fewer than usual, people are still buying at a torrid pace:
Our market was helped by having more homes for sale.
New NSDCC Listings in the First Quarter:
2019: 1,278
2020: 922
2021: 1,081
After the first two months of this year, the total number of NSDCC new listings was 26% behind 2019.
But we had a big March, and the number of new listings in 1Q21 is only 15% behind those in 2019.
This isn’t the type of environment that you should put much stock in your latest zestimate.
A month ago, on March 3rd, the zestimate was $1,336,035.
Today, on April 4th, it is $1,723,510.
Zillow wants you believe that their zestimates are within 1.9% of being right. But if you would have sold this home to them for the latest zestimate amount, you still would have left $100,000+ on the table.
We have another disrupter who is providing a service you didn’t know you needed until now.
Traditionally, a buyer’s agent accompanies their clients to show them the homes for sale, and to give expert advice about each house while on site. But other real estate companies – who don’t appreciate that valuable service – have dumbed it down by just paying door-openers that allow buyers into the house, but leave them on their own to figure out the rest.
A new company has taken it one step further, and is providing an Uber-like service where random agents can get paid for opening doors for other agents.
The company charges $39, and pays $24 of it to the door-opening agent – who agrees to not offer advice to the buyers, and to direct them back to the agent who paid the $39 showing fee.
Matthew makes the case here that the current uptick in mortgage rates may not affect home prices:
There was a big rate spike at the end of 2016 that had no discernible effect on prices. This is notable because that rate spike was fueled by economic optimism as opposed to 2013’s rate spike which happened after the Fed said they would begin decreasing their rate-friendly bond buying program. 2018 was somewhat similar as the Fed was continuing to tighten monetary policy and raise short term interest rates.
A case could be made that the current rate spike shares some similarities with 2016. The path of 10yr Treasury yields (a benchmark for longer term rates like mortgages) has largely traced pandemic progress and economic recovery hopes. Yields (aka rates) began rising late last summer as vaccine trials showed promising results and economic data began to improve.
Rates spiked more quickly in the new year as vaccine logistics ramped up and covid-relief legislation was passed. Fiscal spending hurts rates both due to both its positive implications for the economy (a stronger economy supports higher rates) and the implication of more US Treasury issuance (more Treasury supply = lower bond prices = higher bond yields = higher rates).
But it is predicated on mortgage rates staying about where they are today, which is around 3.0% – 3.25%. The demand has been strong enough that rates in the low-3s should be acceptable and that the bidding wars will sort out the rest of what happens to pricing.
He also makes the case that the 10-year bond yield and mortgage rates have re-connected. The 10-year closed at 1.71% yesterday, and if things go right, it will stay in that ballpark.
But there has been times when the 10-year has kept rising. If that happens again, we might see 4% rates:
If mortgage rates get back to 4%, we should see pricing flatten out. Let’s keep an eye on the 10-year yield!
Our 4S Ranch escrow fell apart yesterday on a quirk in the loan underwriting process. The buyer had a glitch in his visa record with the government, where it showed as pending, not approved. Boom – bank wouldn’t give him a mortgage.
It is usually hard to re-ignite the original urgency, but this is 2021!
Our original list price was $1,599,000 on March 1st.
I raised the list price to $1,770,000 to help give guidance to everyone in the marketplace (it was our agreed-upon sales price). Since we got started, these four listings have happened:
16175 Deer Ridge 3,451sf closed for $1,775,000 on March 1st.
15288 Cayenne Creek 3,877sf closed for $1,800,000 on March 30th.
16342 Cayenne Creek 3,446sf listed for $1,825,000, now pending.
9716 Wren Bluff 3,780sf listed for $1,835,000, now pending.
We are 3,780sf and we’re sticking with our $1,770,000 list price. On Easter weekend!
The trend of paying over the list price is increasing.
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price
January: 38%
February: 43%
March: 53%
Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list which will cover some or all of the commission. There were 22 of 244 (9%) that went double-digit over list. The big winners:
Most % Over List Price
List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,299,000
$1,655,000
27%
$989,000
$1,200,000
21%
$749,000
$900,000
20%
$1,325,000
$1,580,000
19%
$1,900,000
$2,255,551
19%
$1,535,000
$1,800,000
17%
$2,800,000
$3,200,000
16%
$2,198,000
$2,510,000
14%
$2,695,000
$3,075,000
14%
NSDCC Sales, March: 244
Average List Price: $2,285,792
Average Sales Price: $2,252,883 (99%)
Median List Price: $1,788,500
Median Sales Price: $1,810,000 (101%)
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Over List By Price Point:
Under $1.0M: 6
$1.0M – $1.5M: 44
$1.5M – $2.0M: 39
$2.0M – $3.0M: 32
Over $3.0M: 8
A real bell curve there!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The most sales over list are happening right where you’d expect:
Most Sales Over List By Area:
SE Carlsbad, 92009: 32 of 41 sales were over list (78%).
Carmel Valley, 92130: 22 of 32 sales were over list (69%).
Encinitas, 92024: 24 of 41 sales were over list (59%).
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
