Inventory Watch – Market Has Turned



It looks like we are beyond the worst of it, and we’re on our way…..as long as rates stay in the low-3s and nothing really bad happens for the next 2-3 months.

The active and pendings counts have been rising steadily for four weeks, so we can say that the bottom was in mid-April. Here are the weekly numbers for the last two months:

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Pendings
Mar 16
83
55
329
Mar 23
59
31
289
Mar 30
63
31
251
Apr 6
57
21
219
Apr 13
48
17
194
Apr 20
63
29
192
Apr 27
79
40
205
May 4
86
40
208
May 11
91
48
226

There is some concern in the Over-$3,000,000 category. The active inventory jumped +7% this week, and now there are 252 houses for sale, and 23 pendings. But nothing new there!

(more…)

California Showings Update


Showings have steadily improved – here are the percentages off the 2020 weekly average:

April 13: -60.4%

April 19: -41.1%

April 25: -21.7%

It looks like they re-adjust their graph based on the new weekly average.

The top graph shows that on March 28th (the last day of agents being considered non-essential), showings were off about 70% from the weekly 2020 average. Today’s graph only shows the bottom to be at -49% (on April 6th & 12th). So the improvement has actually been better than today’s graph portrays.

Did anyone expect that?

Buyers want to get a jump on the market – plus realtors have to eat.

California Showings

The governor’s stay-at-home order was issued on March 19th (red line), but showings had already been dropping steadily.  Realtors were changed to essential workers on March 28th, but it doesn’t look like agents rushed back to work.  The weekly average improved from -68.9% on the 28th to -57.3% yesterday.  At least it’s heading in the right direction – we’d like to avoid a complete meltdown if possible.

On average it probably takes at least 2-3 showings minimum to procure a sale.  Some homes sell after the first showing, and other take many more visits so averaging 2-3 before finding a buyer is optimistic – but in this era only the highly-motivated buyers are looking in person.

Showings Way Down This Month

The seven-day moving average was +32% on March 8th, and now the average is -68.7%!  This is during the peak showing season too!

But at least the current trend looks like it is flattening out?  Hopefully the change of realtors being declared essential workers will mean more activity, but it might be too late already.

This will probably be the death knell for buyer-agents, especially if the ‘rona tightens the supply further, which would cause fewer listings to make it onto the MLS.

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