There is a collective mindset.
For the last year, real estate has been hot around the world. When California gets cooking, so do all the neighboring states. And when America gets cooking, other markets around the world benefit too.
There are varying degrees of hot, but we can say that real estate markets everywhere have been operating at their peak capacity.
We’ve had a year of full-tilt frenzy and sales were SPECTACULAR!
But yesterday we got the first headline from Doomer Diana that should be a marker:
Thankfully, not many people will read her article where she states that higher prices and rates are the cause of the ‘fizzle’, which is a knee-jerk reaction. She and others will blame the buyers for any slowdown.
Good thing she didn’t see the the graph at the top that has showings lower than in June, 2019, and you remember how that ended (the San Diego Case-Shiller flat-lined for the second half of 2019).
It will be common to blame the buyers. But for the first time ever, our real estate market is having a critical shortage of homes for sale when the demand is exceedingly high. There were 500 people who visited a $1,700,000 Carmel Valley house over the weekend. Demand is not our problem, it is the lack of supply.
I’ll back it up with some stats shortly.
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We are just catching up to San Jose
The problem is not lack of supply. As you say, price fixes everything. Higher prices will bring out more sellers. Owners believe prices will go higher and believe their houses are worth more than current value; therefore, they are not listing them. I am currently in that boat in NE Carlsbad, I think prices go significantly higher over the next 5 years. My grandmother’s 60’s rancher in Fremont (Bay Area) is worth $958/sq.ft. according to Zillow (our favorite market gauge, wink wink). My house in Carlsbad is worth $468/sq.ft. according to Zillow. This gap will close significantly over the next 5 years.
Here you go:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/epic-housing-shortage-may-finally-be-starting-to-lift.html
Jim, you need to see this and understand the implications:
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/hseholdform.pdf
Summary; household formation is going to eclipse any supply easing.