Inventory Watch

Did you get concerned about the pending index falling another 10% last week?

The U.S. housing market is suffering from its lowest supply in history, and that is taking an increasingly hard toll on sales.

Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year.

“The demand for a home purchase is widespread, multiple offers are prevalent, and days-on-market are swift,” said the Realtor’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun. “But contracts are not clicking due to record-low inventory.”

The pendings between La Jolla and Carlsbad are doing just fine. In spite of the total number of NSDCC homes for sale being fewer than usual, people are still buying at a torrid pace:

Our market was helped by having more homes for sale.

New NSDCC Listings in the First Quarter:

2019: 1,278

2020: 922

2021: 1,081

After the first two months of this year, the total number of NSDCC new listings was 26% behind 2019.

But we had a big March, and the number of new listings in 1Q21 is only 15% behind those in 2019.

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NSDCC Under $1,000,000 Market

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 6, 2020	40	$453/sf	51	40
Jan 13	41	$483/sf	48	42
Jan 20	37	$467/sf	51	51
Jan 27	36	$462/sf	46	51
Feb 3	30	$464/sf	51	52
Feb 10	29	$459/sf	39	59
Feb 17	31	$451/sf	37	60
Feb 24	35	$470/sf	32	57
Mar 2	23	$454/sf	42	54
Mar 9	23	$473/sf	32	62
Mar 16	30	$476/sf	31	59
Mar 23	32	$486/sf	33	55
Mar 30	40	$475/sf	32	44
Apr 6	40	$476/sf	32	34
Apr 13	45	$486/sf	31	32
Apr 20	51	$500/sf	30	34
Apr 27	49	$485/sf	31	43
May 4	59	$477/sf	33	38
May 11	64	$485/sf	34	43
May 18	58	$491/sf	37	46
May 25	56	$480/sf	35	58
Jun 1	45	$503/sf	36	72
Jun 8	44	$478/sf	37	75
Jun 15	43	$485/sf	37	74
Jun 22	42	$474/sf	31	79
Jun 29	48	$476/sf	32	71
Jul 6	38	$459/sf	38	69
Jul 13	40	$476/sf	31	74
Jul 20	34	$475/sf	33	73
Jul 27	40	$547/sf	31	68
Aug 3	39	$531/sf	30	69
Aug 10	33	$546/sf	25	75
Aug 17	28	$533/sf	22	67
Aug 24	33	$535/sf	22	64
Aug 31	30	$552/sf	27	62
Sep 7	33	$531/sf	22	66
Sep 14	30	$529/sf	26	60
Sep 28	25	$545/sf	39
Oct 5	25	$538/sf	23
Oct 12	23	$566/sf	28
Oct 19	20	$461/sf	20
Oct 26	21	$450/sf	20
Nov 2	20	$437/sf	24
Nov 9	27	$486/sf	26
Nov 16	19	$530/sf	29
Nov 23	23	$538/sf	28
Nov 30	19	$547/sf	35
Dec 7	13	$499/sf	37
Dec 14	8	$479/sf	63
Dec 21	11	$454/sf	25
Dec 28	12	$501/sf	23
Jan 4, 2021	7	$512/sf	39	32
Jan 11	6	$513/sf	15	28
Jan 18	8	$531/sf	8	27
Jan 25	5	$543/sf	5	30
Feb 1	7	$515/sf	3	28
Feb 8	11	$609/sf	5	25
Feb 15	10	$518/sf	7	31
Feb 22	6	$424/sf	8	33
Mar 1	6	$493/sf	8	33
Mar 8	8	$518/sf	8	31
Mar 15	11	$495/sf	8	19
Mar 22	10	$465/sf	13	23
Mar 29	7	$478/sf	18	26
Apr 5	8	$455/sf	21	27

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 6, 2020	89	$615/sf	67	72
Jan 13	93	$598/sf	65	71
Jan 20	87	$612/sf	66	73
Jan 27	93	$589/sf	59	65
Feb 3	96	$576/sf	54	65
Feb 10	94	$559/sf	62	84
Feb 17	80	$542/sf	64	100
Feb 24	90	$530/sf	61	97
Mar 2	93	$529/sf	56	91
Mar 9	100	$537/sf	46	98
Mar 16	101	$521/sf	44	105
Mar 23	111	$522/sf	44	90
Mar 30	114	$528/sf	43	75
Apr 6	115	$528/sf	50	69
Apr 13	116	$525/sf	48	58
Apr 20	118	$539/sf	52	57
Apr 27	121	$538/sf	48	64
May 4	122	$524/sf	50	72
May 11	128	$519/sf	46	77
May 18	151	$520/sf	40	69
May 25	152	$535/sf	43	87
Jun 1	147	$540/sf	42	109
Jun 8	149	$530/sf	44	115
Jun 15	146	$518/sf	42	125
Jun 22	160	$522/sf	36	133
Jun 29	153	$524/sf	35	137
Jul 6	133	$525/sf	38	150
Jul 13	127	$526/sf	36	152
Jul 20	122	$542/sf	34	158
Jul 27	122	$544/sf	37	169
Aug 3	112	$559/sf	37	154
Aug 10	120	$551/sf	33	151
Aug 17	113	$608/sf	33	158
Aug 24	99	$603/sf	34	158
Aug 31	94	$600/sf	35	146
Sep 7	87	$567/sf	28	157
Sep 14	79	$559/sf	31	156
Sep 28	91	$576/sf	33
Oct 5	81	$565/sf	31
Oct 12	78	$550/sf	32
Oct 19	74	$541/sf	25
Oct 26	68	$539/sf	25
Nov 2	64	$550/sf	27
Nov 9	58	$550/sf	36
Nov 16	61	$560/sf	29
Nov 23	51	$609/sf	38
Nov 30	36	$607/sf	53
Dec 7	36	$627/sf	41
Dec 14	32	$657/sf	31
Dec 21	35	$625/sf	33
Dec 28	23	$623/sf	46
Jan 4, 2021	27	$631/sf	34	66
Jan 11	33	$595/sf	56	61
Jan 18	25	$593/sf	31	66
Jan 25	26	$589/sf	27	71
Feb 1	24	$692/sf	38	75
Feb 8	21	$675/sf	41	78
Feb 15	24	$657/sf	32	72
Feb 22	22	$677/sf	31	70
Mar 1	36	$655/sf	25	69
Mar 8	24	$639/sf	36	77
Mar 15	28	$615/sf	25	68
Mar 22	26	$661/sf	21	79
Mar 29	30	$648/sf	28	80
Apr 5	23	$654/sf	33	82

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Jan 6, 2020	113	$605/sf	71	57
Jan 13, 2020	113	$664/sf	67	59
Jan 20	113	$658/sf	61	50
Jan 27	103	$654/sf	66	59
Feb 3	104	$664/sf	60	59
Feb 10	110	$667/sf	54	62
Feb 17	111	$650/sf	55	72
Feb 24	110	$634/sf	60	76
Mar 2	115	$644/sf	51	77
Mar 9	121	$665/sf	50	80
Mar 16	125	$665/sf	49	79
Mar 23	119	$665/sf	52	70
Mar 30	126	$660/sf	51	59
Apr 6	130	$650/sf	51	56
Apr 13	132	$646/sf	56	49
Apr 20	138	$658/sf	53	47
Apr 27	157	$668/sf	53	47
May 4	151	$665/sf	59	53
May 11	150	$650/sf	63	60
May 18	156	$650/sf	64	58
May 25	169	$643/sf	61	61
Jun 1	162	$655/sf	62	76
Jun 8	168	$655/sf	64	70
Jun 15	161	$668/sf	61	84
Jun 22	170	$678/sf	56	96
Jun 29	170	$686/sf	59	94
Jul 6	160	$700/sf	60	92
Jul 13	155	$683/sf	56	106
Jul 20	156	$692/sf	56	109
Jul 27	146	$705/sf	55	108
Aug 3	129	$719/sf	47	119
Aug 10	128	$698/sf	52	120
Aug 17	123	$714/sf	51	126
Aug 24	118	$683/sf	55	131
Aug 31	115	$701/sf	48	122
Sep 7	107	$648/sf	46	122
Sep 14	116	$670/sf	45	115
Sep 28	109	$647/sf	39
Oct 5	105	$683/sf	39
Oct 12	100	$673/sf	41
Oct 19	104	$633/sf	39
Oct 26	98	$681/sf	44
Nov 2	86	$694/sf	44
Nov 9	78	$700/sf	48
Nov 16	77	$677/sf	48
Nov 23	71	$652/sf	44
Nov 30	62	$691/sf	51
Dec 7	65	$684/sf	46
Dec 14	63	$695/sf	48
Dec 21	41	$736/sf	43
Dec 28	38	$744/sf	50
Jan 4, 2021	40	$784/sf	55	73
Jan 11	43	$717/sf	51	68
Jan 18	32	$789/sf	46	72
Jan 25	35	$708/sf	39	75
Feb 1	39	$746/sf	27	77
Feb 8	39	$760/sf	27	82
Feb 15	43	$679/sf	29	80
Feb 22	45	$686/sf	29	87
Mar 1	42	$810/sf	38	102
Mar 8	35	$779/sf	32	91
Mar 15	31	$799/sf	37	91
Mar 22	41	$765/sf	31	89
Mar 29	38	$727/sf	29	100
Apr 5	31	$678/sf	21	94

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	161	$744/sf	106	33
Jan 6, 2020	147	$756/sf	97	31
Jan 13, 2020	149	$755/sf	94	27
Jan 20, 2020	150	$749/sf	89	27
Jan 27, 2020	154	$738/sf	91	29
Feb 3, 2020	162	$745/sf	86	33
Feb 10, 2020	169	$753/sf	83	33
Feb 17, 2020	166	$735/sf	81	43
Feb 24, 2020	155	$737/sf	86	58
Mar 2, 2020	156	$731/sf	78	55
Mar 9, 2020	157	$726/sf	78	61
Mar 16, 2020	166	$736/sf	75	57
Mar 23, 2020	167	$730/sf	79	45
Mar 30, 2020	163	$734/sf	80	44
Apr 6, 2020	153	$771/sf	81	37
Apr 13, 2020	159	$765/sf	78	33
Apr 20, 2020	153	$773/sf	80	37
Apr 27, 2020	156	$761/sf	82	29
May 4, 2020	165	$756/sf	77	24
May 11, 2020	162	$772/sf	77	27
May 18, 2020	163	$784/sf	79	31
May 25, 2020	157	$779/sf	79	39
June 1, 2020	141	$787/sf	79	49
June 8, 2020	141	$785/sf	82	49
June 15, 2020	148	$798/sf	73	60
June 22, 2020	144	$810/sf	78	63
June 29, 2020	146	$795/sf	80	61
July 6, 2020	136	$799/sf	80	59
July 13, 2020	137	$824/sf	77	62
July 20, 2020	142	$851/sf	67	72
July 27, 2020	144	$845/sf	69	84
Aug 3, 2020	143	$856/sf	69	87
Aug 10, 2020	135	$831/sf	69	87
Aug 17, 2020	137	$823/sf	72	87
Aug 24, 2020	140	$829/sf	74	81
Aug 31, 2020	142	$842/sf	71	86
Sep 7, 2020	133	$802/sf	71	94
Sep 14, 2020	125	$840/sf	70	96
Sep 28, 2020	115	$823/sf	78
Oct 5, 2020	117	$821/sf	75
Oct 12, 2020	113	$824/sf	71
Oct 19, 2020	116	$808/sf	65
Oct 26, 2020	123	$822/sf	64
Nov 2, 2020	108	$831/sf	72
Nov 9, 2020	109	$802/sf	74
Nov 16, 2020	111	$831/sf	75
Nov 23, 2020	109	$828/sf	76
Nov 30, 2020	111	$827/sf	77
Dec 7, 2020	106	$837/sf	83
Dec 14, 2020	104	$840/sf	85
Dec 21, 2020	95	$850/sf	87
Dec 28, 2020	83	$875/sf	95
Jan 4, 2021	76	$855/sf	96	57
Jan 11	77	$861/sf	92	57
Jan 18	75	$886/sf	94	54
Jan 25	70	$936/sf	101	53
Feb 1	68	$944/sf	96	58
Feb 8	72	$935/sf	96	58
Feb 15	63	$993/sf	85	64
Feb 22	65	$871/sf	72	68
Mar 1	58	$866/sf	70	78
Mar 8	63	$834/sf	70	79
Mar 15	57	$877/sf	71	78
Mar 22	44	$918/sf	82	83
Mar 29	54	$839/sf	73	72
Apr 5	53	$967/sf	67	75

The $3,000,000+ Market:

Date	NSDCC Active Listings	Avg. LP/sf	Avg. DOM	# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019	267	$1,226/sf	144	28
Jan 6, 2020	246	$1,218/sf	138	29
Jan 13, 2020	256	$1,173/sf	133	28
Jan 20, 2020	261	$1,158/sf	128	27
Jan 27, 2020	258	$1,163/sf	128	27
Feb 3, 2020	258	$1,162/sf	127	32
Feb 10, 2020	259	$1,172/sf	124	37
Feb 17, 2020	265	$1,140/sf	118	36
Feb 24, 2020	268	$1,150/sf	120	39
Mar 2, 2020	267	$1,119/sf	121	37
Mar 9, 2020	276	$1,118/sf	119	38
Mar 16, 2020	276	$1,116/sf	118	40
Mar 23, 2020	256	$1,142/sf	128	40
Mar 30, 2020	244	$1,150/sf	131	40
Apr 6, 2020	231	$1,168/sf	129	28
Apr 13, 2020	230	$1,183/sf	132	25
Apr 20, 2020	224	$1,165/sf	138	26
Apr 27, 2020	221	$1,197/sf	137	22
May 4, 2020	235	$1,194/sf	131	25
May 11, 2020	252	$1,173/sf	129	23
May 18, 2020	261	$1,160/sf	127	23
May 25, 2020	271	$1,156/sf	125	26
June 1, 2020	270	$1,164/sf	124	34
June 8, 2020	264	$1,173/sf	125	39
June 15, 2020	270	$1,158/sf	121	41
June 22, 2020	282	$1,162/sf	117	49
June 29, 2020	287	$1,152/sf	118	47
July 6, 2020	288	$1,145/sf	115	57
July 13, 2020	276	$1,163/sf	116	62
July 20, 2020	280	$1,153/sf	115	62
July 27, 2020	286	$1,183/sf	116	54
Aug 3, 2020	288	$1,186/sf	112	54
Aug 10, 2020	285	$1,177/sf	113	59
Aug 17, 2020	294	$1,178/sf	107	62
Aug 24, 2020	290	$1,181/sf	107	61
Aug 31, 2020	296	$1,185/sf	106	69
Sep 7, 2020	297	$1,180/sf	117	69
Sep 14, 2020	304	$1,215/sf	116	73
Sep 28, 2020	288	$1,238/sf	112
Oct 5, 2020	291	$1,245/sf	122
Oct 12, 2020	291	$1,251/sf	121
Oct 19, 2020	284	$1,273/sf	123
Oct 26, 2020	280	$1,359/sf	127
Nov 2, 2020	272	$1,356/sf	112
Nov 9, 2020	267	$1,357/sf	103
Nov 16, 2020	279	$1,378/sf	99
Nov 23, 2020	266	$1,411/sf	108
Nov 30, 2020	259	$1,408/sf	113
Dec 7, 2020	257	$1,400/sf	134
Dec 14, 2020	248	$1,385/sf	114
Dec 21, 2020	245	$1,362/sf	116
Dec 28, 2020	237	$1,373/sf	120
Jan 4, 2021	221	$1,372/sf	121	56
Jan 11	225	$1,388/sf	119	62
Jan 18	232	$1,379/sf	111	68
Jan 25	242	$1,373/sf	111	59
Feb 1	234	$1,361/sf	114	73
Feb 8	228	$1,414/sf	114	79
Feb 15	226	$1,400/sf	112	90
Feb 22	224	$1,404/sf	113	87
Mar 1	224	$1,386/sf	104	80
Mar 8	215	$1,346/sf	106	86
Mar 15	209	$1,360/sf	109	84
Mar 22	209	$1,367/sf	100	86
Mar 29	212	$1,379/sf	101	93
Apr 5	221	$1,366/sf	97	91

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week	New Listings	New Pendings	Total Pendings
Jan 6, 2020	56	21	218
Jan 13	76	33	214
Jan 20	71	53	217
Jan 27	62	38	220
Feb 3	75	46	232
Feb 10	97	72	265
Feb 17	82	58	300
Feb 24	70	53	316
Mar 2	79	55	301
Mar 9	106	66	328
Mar 16	83	55	329
Mar 23	59	31	289
Mar 30	63	31	251
Apr 6	57	21	219
Apr 13	48	17	194
Apr 20	63	29	192
Apr 27	79	40	205
May 4	86	40	208
May 11	91	48	226
May 18	95	44	224
May 25	121	69	266
Jun 1	81	92	332
Jun 8	88	67	338
Jun 15	104	82	374
Jun 22	112	78	409
Jun 29	85	69	402
Jul 6	83	88	418
Jul 13	105	93	447
Jul 20	106	98	466
Jul 27	92	80	475
Aug 3	104	101	477
Aug 10	94	91	483
Aug 17	96	87	490
Aug 24	71	87	482
Aug 31	100	86	476
Sep 7	110	93	491
Sep 14	75	70	481
Sep 28	86	67	486
Oct 5	74	91	462
Oct 12	75	92	470
Oct 19	79	77	487
Oct 26	65	85	476
Nov 2	62	90	471
Nov 9	53	71	461
Nov 16	47	55	424
Nov 23	51	92	426
Nov 30	27	60	412
Dec 7	37	58	378
Dec 14	46	62	343
Dec 21	43	62	324
Dec 28	20	42	301
Jan 4, 2021	35	33	284
Jan 11	57	49	271
Jan 18	56	64	278
Jan 25	46	52	280
Feb 1	55	74	306
Feb 8	45	66	316
Feb 15	60	65	332
Feb 22	71	71	338
Mar 1	54	67	346
Mar 8	43	75	366
Mar 15	70	53	333
Mar 22	58	61	354
Mar 29	69	57	363
Apr 5	68	66	362

The MLS ‘upgrade’ of September, 2020 added an extra status type called ‘Active Under Contract’. I’m including those under the pendings, and ‘Actives’ are those marked as active listings for sale. The pendings count by price have been suspended on Sept 28 & Oct 5 and will be in the future until they stop omitting the price (THIS HAS BEEN FIXED STARTING IN 2021). I started using SDAR stats on March 15, 2021, which are pure houses only. The NSDCAR stats have 10-25 more in their SFR and 2-4 unit categories which aren’t pure houses.

1 Comment

Jim Klinge

Klinge Realty Group

Broker-Associate, Compass

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